Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
139 Purdue Fort Wayne 24.1%   14   2 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 10 14 - 6 +1.6      +2.9 100 -1.4 214 74.6 66 +1.1 175 0.0 1
178 Oakland 14.0%   0 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 8 -0.9      -1.1 200 +0.2 158 64.3 315 +3.0 140 0.0 1
184 Wright St. 12.9%   1 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 12 12 - 8 -1.3      +2.5 112 -3.7 298 76.6 37 +1.9 160 0.0 1
192 Youngstown St. 12.8%   1 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -1.4      -1.1 202 -0.2 176 71.2 117 -1.3 205 0.0 1
203 Northern Kentucky 10.4%   0 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 11 - 9 -2.0      -4.1 291 +2.0 111 69.4 174 -12.2 319 0.0 1
212 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9.7%   1 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 9 -2.4      +0.9 155 -3.3 285 73.2 75 -0.8 197 0.0 1
222 Cleveland St. 8.0%   2 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 -2.9      -2.7 254 -0.2 175 68.3 213 +1.6 168 0.0 1
251 Green Bay 4.6%   2 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 10 -4.7      -0.5 193 -4.1 308 71.5 110 -3.5 231 0.0 1
288 Robert Morris 2.6%   3 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 12 -6.4      -4.8 308 -1.6 226 67.6 236 -5.0 253 0.0 1
328 Detroit Mercy 0.8%   2 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 14 -9.5      -5.1 317 -4.4 318 67.6 234 -2.2 214 0.0 1
361 IU Indianapolis 0.1%   0 - 3 0 - 0 5 - 23 3 - 17 -14.8      -7.9 352 -6.9 352 68.4 211 -17.4 354 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Purdue Fort Wayne 2.9 34.7 19.9 14.0 10.2 7.4 5.4 3.6 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.1
Oakland 4.1 17.9 15.8 14.1 12.2 10.8 8.9 7.8 5.9 4.0 2.1 0.5
Wright St. 4.3 16.3 14.7 13.6 12.2 11.0 9.6 8.1 6.7 4.7 2.5 0.6
Youngstown St. 4.4 15.7 14.5 13.7 12.2 11.1 9.9 8.5 6.7 4.7 2.4 0.6
Northern Kentucky 4.7 12.6 12.8 13.0 12.2 11.8 10.7 9.6 7.9 5.6 3.0 0.7
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.9 11.2 11.8 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.0 10.2 8.7 6.6 3.9 1.0
Cleveland St. 5.2 8.6 10.4 11.8 12.4 12.2 11.9 11.3 9.4 7.2 3.8 1.0
Green Bay 6.2 4.3 6.1 8.2 9.8 11.1 12.1 13.4 13.7 11.9 7.3 2.2
Robert Morris 7.1 2.0 3.4 5.0 6.7 8.6 10.4 12.5 15.4 17.4 13.8 4.7
Detroit Mercy 8.6 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.1 5.8 8.6 12.7 19.2 29.6 14.5
IU Indianapolis 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 4.3 8.7 21.8 61.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue Fort Wayne 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.4 8.0 10.1 12.0 13.1 13.2 11.6 8.9 5.6 2.7 0.8
Oakland 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.8 5.5 7.5 9.4 11.0 11.9 11.8 10.9 9.3 6.8 4.5 2.2 0.9 0.2
Wright St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.1 6.0 8.0 9.9 11.2 11.8 11.4 10.5 8.5 6.2 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.2
Youngstown St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.1 6.3 8.3 10.1 11.3 12.1 11.5 10.3 8.1 6.0 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.2
Northern Kentucky 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.3 5.1 7.0 9.3 11.1 11.8 11.8 11.0 9.5 7.2 4.9 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 4.0 5.8 7.9 9.7 11.3 11.6 11.6 10.3 8.4 6.6 4.4 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
Cleveland St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.5 8.6 10.4 12.0 12.5 11.7 10.0 7.9 5.5 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1
Green Bay 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.8 7.2 9.9 11.4 12.5 12.2 11.3 9.3 6.8 4.8 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Robert Morris 8 - 12 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.1 5.7 8.3 10.7 12.1 12.6 11.9 10.3 8.4 6.1 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 6 - 14 0.6 2.4 5.5 9.1 11.6 13.7 13.8 12.4 10.1 7.8 5.4 3.4 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 3 - 17 7.5 15.2 18.2 17.3 14.2 10.8 7.1 4.4 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue Fort Wayne 34.7% 24.9 7.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Oakland 17.9% 11.6 4.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wright St. 16.3% 10.6 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Youngstown St. 15.7% 10.0 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Kentucky 12.6% 7.7 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11.2% 6.9 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 8.6% 5.0 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 4.3% 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Robert Morris 2.0% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue Fort Wayne 24.1% 24.1% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.3 7.3 5.0 1.7 75.9 0.0%
Oakland 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.9 3.8 3.7 2.3 86.0 0.0%
Wright St. 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 3.8 3.5 2.0 87.1 0.0%
Youngstown St. 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.5 3.7 2.5 87.2 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.1 3.9 89.6 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.4 90.3 0.0%
Cleveland St. 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.9 2.0 92.0 0.0%
Green Bay 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.1 95.4 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 97.4 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 99.2 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue Fort Wayne 24.1% 0.5% 23.9% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 14.0% 1.4% 13.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 12.9% 0.8% 12.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 12.8% 1.0% 12.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 10.4% 2.1% 9.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9.7% 1.2% 9.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 8.0% 0.8% 7.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 4.6% 1.2% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.6% 0.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 95.2% 1.0 4.8 95.2 0.0
2nd Round 6.6% 0.1 93.4 6.6
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0