Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
183 Quinnipiac 27.2%   16   10 - 8 7 - 1 19 - 11 16 - 4 -1.0      -2.6 237 +1.6 128 75.4 32 -0.9 187 +6.4 1
206 Merrimack 20.1%   9 - 9 6 - 1 17 - 14 14 - 6 -2.2      -4.0 283 +1.8 122 64.0 299 -0.7 180 +3.6 3
217 Marist 16.2%   13 - 3 6 - 1 21 - 8 14 - 6 -3.2      -5.1 310 +1.9 119 62.8 328 +1.8 139 +4.1 2
231 St. Peter's 9.2%   6 - 8 2 - 5 14 - 13 10 - 10 -4.0      -6.5 338 +2.5 101 60.5 351 -4.6 245 -11.1 10
253 Iona 6.4%   6 - 12 3 - 4 13 - 18 10 - 10 -5.3      -5.8 322 +0.6 148 71.5 100 -7.4 285 -8.0 8
266 Mount St. Mary's 5.7%   10 - 7 4 - 3 16 - 14 10 - 10 -5.9      -6.0 326 0.0 169 71.5 101 -1.5 197 -5.1 4
272 Siena 4.7%   8 - 10 3 - 4 15 - 16 10 - 10 -6.2      -4.7 297 -1.5 225 65.6 252 -4.6 243 -7.9 6
294 Rider 2.5%   7 - 11 3 - 4 13 - 18 9 - 11 -7.6      -4.0 281 -3.6 280 64.0 298 -6.5 272 -8.0 7
296 Sacred Heart 2.1%   5 - 12 2 - 5 11 - 19 8 - 12 -7.7      -2.7 244 -4.9 317 72.2 83 -9.7 314 -11.2 11
297 Manhattan 3.0%   7 - 8 3 - 4 13 - 15 9 - 11 -7.7      -0.4 191 -7.3 349 69.8 150 -5.8 261 -6.6 5
311 Niagara 1.2%   6 - 11 2 - 5 11 - 19 7 - 13 -8.5      -3.7 275 -4.8 312 62.9 321 -9.5 312 -11.5 13
318 Fairfield 1.6%   6 - 11 3 - 4 11 - 19 8 - 12 -9.0      -2.7 242 -6.3 341 65.6 253 -8.2 300 -8.8 9
346 Canisius 0.2%   2 - 16 2 - 5 6 - 25 6 - 14 -12.0      -3.3 257 -8.7 361 64.8 272 -15.5 351 -11.4 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Quinnipiac 1.6 60.3 27.3 9.0 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Merrimack 2.2 33.6 31.0 23.4 7.1 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marist 2.5 25.0 31.1 26.5 9.4 4.0 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
St. Peter's 6.5 0.4 2.1 7.7 15.2 16.0 13.7 12.3 10.1 8.0 6.3 4.4 2.7 1.2
Iona 6.2 0.7 3.1 9.4 17.0 16.3 13.7 11.3 8.8 7.1 5.5 4.0 2.2 0.9
Mount St. Mary's 5.7 1.3 4.2 11.7 19.7 16.0 13.2 10.8 8.3 6.2 4.2 2.7 1.4 0.4
Siena 6.7 0.3 2.4 6.8 14.2 14.3 14.2 12.1 10.4 9.3 6.8 4.6 3.3 1.3
Rider 7.7 0.2 0.9 3.3 8.3 10.9 11.7 11.7 12.6 12.3 10.4 8.7 5.9 3.1
Sacred Heart 8.9 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.4 6.2 9.0 10.7 11.5 12.3 12.5 11.9 11.8 7.9
Manhattan 7.4 0.3 1.3 4.8 10.9 12.6 12.0 11.8 11.1 10.1 8.8 7.8 6.0 2.5
Niagara 9.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.5 4.6 6.4 8.1 10.5 12.0 13.1 15.0 14.6 12.1
Fairfield 9.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.9 5.9 7.6 9.5 10.7 12.3 13.0 14.8 13.5 6.7
Canisius 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.8 4.3 6.3 9.6 13.9 22.0 38.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Quinnipiac 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 6.8 13.4 19.7 23.0 19.5 10.3 2.6
Merrimack 14 - 6 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.4 9.3 14.9 18.9 19.6 16.0 9.9 3.8 0.8
Marist 14 - 6 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.1 6.5 11.7 15.9 19.1 17.6 13.2 7.9 2.9 0.7
St. Peter's 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.8 8.1 13.3 17.4 19.7 16.5 11.3 6.0 1.7 0.3
Iona 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.1 6.9 12.6 16.2 18.4 17.6 12.6 7.5 2.9 0.8 0.1
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.8 10.2 15.5 18.6 17.7 14.4 9.2 4.1 1.6 0.4 0.1
Siena 10 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.3 9.1 14.4 17.8 19.1 15.0 10.3 5.2 2.0 0.4 0.0
Rider 9 - 11 0.2 1.1 3.7 8.2 14.9 18.9 18.7 15.3 10.8 5.5 2.1 0.6 0.2
Sacred Heart 8 - 12 0.2 1.1 3.7 8.0 13.1 17.8 18.7 16.4 11.8 5.8 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
Manhattan 9 - 11 0.1 0.9 3.1 7.9 12.3 16.2 17.9 16.5 12.3 7.3 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.1
Niagara 7 - 13 0.3 1.8 5.7 11.4 16.7 18.8 18.1 13.9 8.1 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1
Fairfield 8 - 12 0.8 3.8 9.6 14.9 18.8 18.4 15.0 9.9 5.4 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.0
Canisius 6 - 14 2.1 8.6 16.3 21.8 20.4 15.2 8.9 4.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Quinnipiac 60.3% 43.6 14.6 2.0 0.1 0.0
Merrimack 33.6% 21.1 10.5 1.9 0.1 0.0
Marist 25.0% 14.5 8.7 1.8 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 0.4% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iona 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 1.3% 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Siena 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rider 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Sacred Heart 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1
Niagara 0.0% 0.0
Fairfield 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Quinnipiac 27.2% 27.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.3 1.6 5.7 12.3 7.2 72.8 0.0%
Merrimack 20.1% 20.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 2.5 9.0 8.2 79.9 0.0%
Marist 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 6.5 8.0 83.8 0.0%
St. Peter's 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.1 5.4 90.8 0.0%
Iona 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 5.8 93.6 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.4 94.3 0.0%
Siena 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 3.7 95.3 0.0%
Rider 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1 2.4 97.6 0.0%
Sacred Heart 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1 2.0 97.9 0.0%
Manhattan 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.5 97.0 0.0%
Niagara 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Fairfield 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 98.4 0.0%
Canisius 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Quinnipiac 27.2% 1.9% 26.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 20.1% 2.5% 19.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 16.2% 2.9% 14.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 9.2% 2.3% 8.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 6.4% 4.2% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 5.7% 2.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 4.7% 2.2% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 2.5% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 2.1% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 3.0% 1.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 87.4% 0.9 12.6 87.4
2nd Round 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0