Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
187 St. Peter's 18.0%   16   0 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 11 13 - 7 -1.3      -3.1 272 +1.8 114 61.5 354 -5.7 275 0.0 1
206 Merrimack 13.9%   1 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 15 12 - 8 -2.5      -6.4 340 +3.9 72 68.0 218 +5.3 96 0.0 1
221 Iona 12.0%   0 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 15 12 - 8 -3.1      -1.3 204 -1.8 232 67.2 248 -13.7 337 0.0 1
226 Marist 12.0%   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 8 -3.2      -2.7 258 -0.5 185 62.9 340 +0.7 186 0.0 1
227 Rider 11.0%   3 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 14 11 - 9 -3.2      -1.7 217 -1.6 222 69.4 179 +8.6 55 0.0 1
247 Quinnipiac 9.3%   0 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 9 -4.2      -2.4 246 -1.8 233 76.6 32 -3.2 246 0.0 1
256 Mount St. Mary's 7.5%   1 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 10 -4.9      -3.2 274 -1.7 230 71.5 116 +7.2 72 0.0 1
258 Fairfield 6.7%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 10 -5.1      -4.5 307 -0.6 187 70.0 163 -2.0 230 0.0 1
308 Siena 3.2%   3 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 11 -7.5      -4.6 309 -3.0 264 65.6 293 +10.7 40 0.0 1
318 Canisius 2.1%   0 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 21 8 - 12 -8.7      -3.6 286 -5.0 332 66.6 262 -18.7 353 0.0 1
320 Niagara 2.0%   0 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -8.9      -4.4 302 -4.6 324 67.9 223 -17.2 351 0.0 1
334 Manhattan 1.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 13 -10.2      -6.3 336 -3.9 307 69.8 169 +2.2 150 0.0 1
335 Sacred Heart 1.0%   0 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 21 7 - 13 -10.4      -5.2 324 -5.2 339 79.6 17 -14.0 342 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
St. Peter's 3.7 27.3 17.5 13.6 10.3 8.2 6.5 5.2 3.9 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.5
Merrimack 4.4 19.0 15.7 12.9 11.1 9.4 7.9 6.3 5.1 4.1 3.4 2.5 1.6 0.9
Iona 4.7 16.4 14.5 12.7 10.9 9.5 8.3 7.1 6.0 4.8 3.9 2.8 1.9 1.1
Marist 5.1 15.3 12.5 11.5 10.4 9.2 8.5 7.8 6.6 5.9 4.6 3.7 2.6 1.5
Rider 5.2 12.7 11.8 11.7 11.0 10.1 9.5 8.4 7.1 6.0 4.9 3.6 2.2 1.1
Quinnipiac 5.8 10.3 10.1 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.1 8.7 7.8 7.1 6.3 5.2 3.8 2.2
Mount St. Mary's 6.2 8.2 9.1 9.3 9.7 9.5 9.5 8.9 8.2 7.9 6.9 5.8 4.4 2.6
Fairfield 6.4 6.9 8.2 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.3 7.5 6.0 4.8 2.8
Siena 7.6 3.5 4.7 5.9 7.1 7.9 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.6 8.9 8.2 6.6
Canisius 8.7 1.8 2.7 3.6 4.5 5.6 6.8 8.2 9.2 10.7 11.5 12.3 12.5 10.7
Niagara 8.8 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.5 5.7 6.6 7.3 8.7 10.2 11.4 12.3 12.9 12.4
Manhattan 9.5 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.4 4.3 5.3 6.4 7.7 9.1 10.7 12.5 15.2 19.3
Sacred Heart 9.7 0.9 1.3 2.2 2.8 3.9 5.0 6.1 7.6 9.4 11.5 13.4 16.9 18.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
St. Peter's 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.3 5.1 7.1 8.6 11.0 11.8 12.4 11.7 9.6 7.6 4.5 2.2 0.6
Merrimack 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.3 3.5 5.0 6.5 8.7 10.4 11.4 11.9 11.1 9.7 7.7 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.3
Iona 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.1 5.6 7.8 9.2 10.6 11.6 11.4 10.7 8.7 6.9 4.4 2.2 1.1 0.3
Marist 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.4 4.8 6.8 8.4 9.7 10.4 11.0 10.9 9.7 7.7 6.0 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.2
Rider 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 4.9 6.8 9.2 10.6 11.8 11.6 11.0 9.6 7.4 5.0 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.1
Quinnipiac 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.2 4.7 6.5 8.2 9.6 10.7 11.6 10.5 9.5 7.9 5.9 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.6 5.5 7.1 9.0 10.4 10.9 11.2 10.3 9.1 7.0 5.4 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Fairfield 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.8 5.8 7.8 9.2 10.9 11.9 11.0 10.3 8.6 6.7 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Siena 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.4 6.3 8.6 10.1 11.1 11.5 11.1 9.7 7.9 5.6 4.2 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Canisius 8 - 12 0.2 1.0 2.8 4.6 7.2 9.3 11.0 12.2 11.8 10.5 9.1 7.4 5.0 3.4 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Niagara 8 - 12 0.2 1.3 3.2 5.1 7.6 9.6 11.0 11.7 11.4 10.0 8.8 6.9 5.1 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 7 - 13 0.8 2.6 4.7 7.9 9.5 10.9 11.4 11.2 9.9 9.0 7.0 5.5 3.8 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Sacred Heart 7 - 13 0.6 2.3 4.9 7.8 10.3 11.9 12.3 11.8 10.4 8.8 6.8 4.8 3.3 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Peter's 27.3% 18.7 6.6 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Merrimack 19.0% 12.5 4.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Iona 16.4% 10.6 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marist 15.3% 9.8 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Rider 12.7% 7.9 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 10.3% 6.3 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 8.2% 4.8 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 6.9% 4.0 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Siena 3.5% 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Niagara 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 1.4% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Peter's 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.1 5.5 5.4 82.1 0.0%
Merrimack 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 3.2 4.8 4.0 86.1 0.0%
Iona 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.2 6.3 88.0 0.0%
Marist 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.7 3.8 3.8 88.0 0.0%
Rider 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.2 2.4 89.0 0.0%
Quinnipiac 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.0 3.8 90.7 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.7 2.5 92.5 0.0%
Fairfield 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.3 93.3 0.0%
Siena 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 96.8 0.0%
Canisius 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.8 97.9 0.0%
Niagara 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7 98.0 0.0%
Manhattan 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 98.6 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 99.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Peter's 18.0% 2.5% 16.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 13.9% 1.9% 12.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 12.0% 3.7% 10.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 12.0% 1.7% 11.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 11.0% 1.0% 10.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 9.3% 2.0% 8.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.5% 1.2% 6.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 6.7% 1.8% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 3.2% 0.7% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 2.1% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 2.0% 1.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 90.3% 0.9 9.7 90.3
2nd Round 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0