Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.4 305
Expected Predictive Rating -7.3 282
Pace 65.6 261
Improvement -3.2 311

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #312 D- D C B- D+
Defense D+ #273 D C C- D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 215 50% 341 -3.6 301
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 69 34% 313 +1.1 117
Three Pointers 36% 280 32% 268 -3.6 305
1st FG Attempt 0.90 340 -6.1 341
Second Chance 24.9% 330 1.00 210 0.25 314
Turnovers 17.1% 193
Freethrows 0.33 99 73% 173 0.24 107
Total Offense -5.3 312

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 119 63% 312 -3.6 308
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 268 35% 93 +1.5 74
Three Pointers 41% 169 36% 274 -1.6 265
1st FG Attempt 1.09 296 -3.7 296
Second Chance 31.6% 229 0.98 113 0.31 181
Turnovers 16.1% 225
Freethrows 0.34 296 71% 128 0.24 279
Total Defense -3.1 273

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.8 297 +0.5 269
Shot Type Accuracy -5.2 334 +3.0 293
Possession Length 18.5 297 16.5 53
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 238 0.23 338
Improvement -0.1 #182 -3.2 #324

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 10% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 15.9
.500 or above 53% 55% 23%
.500 or above in Conference 88% 89% 60%
Conference Champion 3% 3% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four8% 8% 4%
First Round5% 5% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 95.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 415 - 915 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 29 @Indiana L 51 - 98 2% -31  0% 0 - 1 F -29 F -18 F+ F B- F -11 F C+ B-
 Thu, Nov 13 256 Charleston Southern W 68 - 64 50% +5  77% 1 - 1 C- -4 F -10 F A F B +6 B- D A+
 Sun, Nov 16 246 Lindenwood W 74 - 65 47% +2  61% 2 - 1 C +1 C- -1 C+ C D+ B- +3 C C+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 38 @Clemson L 56 - 92 2% -25  0% 2 - 2 F -19 F+ -9 C- F B+ F+ -9 D F+ C+
 Sun, Nov 30 238 @Coastal Carolina L 60 - 67 25% -6  0% 2 - 3 D -8 F -13 F+ F D B +5 A C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 235 Tennessee St. W 80 - 53 45% +9  97% 3 - 3 A +20 B +6 A- B- F A+ +16 A+ D+ A
 Sun, Dec 7 187 @Lipscomb L 58 - 92 18% -13  0% 3 - 4 F -33 F -13 F D- C- F -22 F F+ F
 Mon, Dec 15 344 North Alabama W 68 - 60 74% +0  53% 4 - 4 D+ -7 F -11 F C- A- B +5 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 65 Mississippi L 66 - 80 7% -13  0% 4 - 5 D+ -6 C +1 B C- C+ D- -8 F A C-
 Sun, Dec 21 282 Chattanooga L 66 - 73 56% -4  20% 4 - 6 F+ -17 D- -8 F+ D B- F+ -10 F+ D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 313 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 83 - 95 41% -4  33% 4 - 7 0 - 1 F -18 A +12 D- A+ C- F -31 F F D
 Mon, Jan 5 365 @Mississippi Valley W 71 - 51 88% +10  80% 5 - 7 1 - 1 C -1 F -13 F D+ F A +12 B C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 351 Alcorn St. L 62 - 64 77% +4  80% 5 - 8 1 - 2 F -18 F -17 F F+ C- C -1 C B- F
 Mon, Jan 12 343 Jackson St. W 100 - 91 74% +6  73% 6 - 8 2 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +2 C C+ C- F+ -9 F+ B- F
 Mon, Jan 19 316 Alabama St. W 73 - 69 54% +0  52% 7 - 8 3 - 2 D+ -6 D- -7 F D- B- C+ +1 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 309 @Texas Southern L 74 - 89 40% +1  40% 7 - 9 3 - 3 F -21 C- -1 B F D F -20 F C- F
 Tue, Jan 27 336 @Prairie View W 80 - 60 50% +12  84% 8 - 9 4 - 3 B+ +12 C+ +3 B- F C+ A- +9 B- A C+
 Sat, Jan 31 328 Florida A&M W 72 - 65 69% +8  99% 9 - 9 5 - 3 D+ -7 C +0 D D- B+ D -6 D+ C- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 227 Bethune-Cookman L 62 - 80 43% -14  0% 9 - 10 5 - 4 F -25 F -17 F F D+ D -7 F A D+
 Sat, Feb 7 264 @Southern L 68 - 81 30% -8  0% 9 - 11 5 - 5 F+ -16 D+ -3 F C A+ F -13 F F+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 285 @Grambling St. W 66 - 58 34% +10  97% 10 - 11 6 - 5 C+ +4 D -4 D D- D+ A- +9 A+ D+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 78 - 59 96%
 Mon, Feb 16 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 77 - 73 64%
 Thu, Feb 19 328 @Florida A&M L 69 - 70 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 227 @Bethune-Cookman L 67 - 75 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 316 Alabama St. W 73 - 69 64%
 Tue, Mar 3 285 Grambling St. W 68 - 66 56%
 Thu, Mar 5 264 Southern W 73 - 72 53%
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 8 -8 D -5 D- D C D+ -3 D C C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D D+ D- 37% 27% 36% D+ D- D C- D C B- C B- D+ D B- D+ D 41% 18% 41% D+ D C- C+ C C- D+ C+ D+
1.01 50% 34% 32% -5 -1 0.90 25% 1.0 .25 17% .33 73% .24 1.13 63% 35% 36% +3 +1 1.09 32% 1.0 .31 16% .34 71% .24
Nov
5		 Indiana F F F C F+ 34% 36% 30% D F+ F A F B- C+ F F+ F F D+ F F 57% 4% 40% F F B D C+ B- A- F C
0.73 35% 28% 33% -12 -2 0.74 8% 1.3 .10 16% .32 53% .17 1.39 80% 50% 43% +18 +3 1.45 27% 1.2 .32 16% .27 100% .27
Nov
13		 Charleston Southern F F B B- F 41% 34% 25% D F A B+ A F F A+ F+ B D- A+ A- B- 41% 11% 48% C- B- F B- D A+ F A D
0.98 26% 42% 36% -11 -2 0.77 38% 1.2 .45 20% .22 92% .20 0.92 67% 20% 29% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 26% .37 58% .21
Nov
16		 Lindenwood C- B- F A B- 36% 20% 44% D C+ D A- C D+ A+ B+ A+ B- F D+ A+ C 43% 17% 40% D+ C B- C C+ B- F+ B+ D+
1.09 63% 22% 40% +3 0 1.07 28% 1.3 .34 19% .46 76% .35 0.96 70% 38% 16% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.1 .32 21% .39 62% .24
Nov
28		 Clemson F+ B+ A+ F C+ 22% 37% 41% F C- F F F B+ C D C- F+ D- F+ D+ D 47% 8% 45% D- D D D- F+ C+ F C- F
0.79 64% 47% 19% -4 -3 0.86 8% 0.7 .05 16% .29 71% .20 1.30 70% 50% 36% +8 +2 1.22 33% 1.2 .40 16% .54 75% .40
Nov
30		 Coastal Carolina F F+ D D- F+ 32% 34% 34% C- F+ F+ F F D A- F B- B A+ C C A 30% 36% 34% B+ A C+ B- C+ C F F F
0.87 44% 35% 29% -8 -2 0.82 20% 0.7 .14 15% .37 64% .24 0.97 31% 38% 33% -9 -3 0.80 24% 0.9 .22 16% .59 82% .48
Dec
3		 Tennessee St. B C+ A- A+ A 42% 19% 40% D+ A- A F+ B- F A+ C- A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% B A+ F A+ D+ A F A+ D+
1.23 61% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 23% .54 74% .40 0.81 50% 25% 18% -15 -2 0.67 47% 0.7 .34 21% .39 55% .22
Dec
7		 Lipscomb F F F D F 40% 32% 28% D+ F C+ F D- C- A+ C- A F F F D F 53% 5% 42% F F B F F+ F B- A+ A-
0.88 42% 27% 31% -11 -1 0.77 33% 0.7 .23 18% .39 71% .28 1.40 73% 67% 38% +12 +3 1.32 21% 1.7 .36 6% .21 62% .13
Dec
15		 North Alabama F F B F F 36% 23% 40% D- F D+ C+ C- A- A+ F A+ B D A+ F F 32% 28% 40% A D- A+ A+ A+ C+ C- A B-
1.04 35% 45% 21% -14 -1 0.72 32% 1.2 .39 11% .53 68% .36 0.92 60% 23% 42% +1 -1 1.02 12% 0.5 .06 18% .32 59% .19
Dec
17		 Mississippi C F F A+ B+ 31% 31% 38% D B F+ A C- C+ B+ D B- D- F D- F F 36% 26% 38% F F B+ A A C- F A+ F
1.03 43% 21% 53% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 17% .37 65% .24 1.24 73% 45% 50% +17 -1 1.33 26% 0.9 .23 12% .53 60% .32
Dec
21		 Chattanooga D- D D- F F 43% 20% 37% C F+ F A- D B- B+ C B+ F+ C+ C+ F F 33% 17% 50% D+ F+ B F D+ D- C- A- C+
1.04 52% 30% 28% -7 0 0.88 23% 1.3 .31 13% .41 74% .30 1.14 56% 38% 42% +5 0 1.13 16% 1.6 .25 13% .29 69% .20
Jan
3		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A C D+ F D- 44% 20% 36% C- D- A+ C- A+ C- A+ A A+ F D C- F F 40% 27% 33% C F F F F D F D- F
1.30 60% 33% 25% -5 +1 0.93 56% 1.1 .63 16% .52 82% .43 1.49 63% 38% 56% +13 -1 1.27 54% 1.2 .65 16% .48 81% .39
Jan
5		 Mississippi Valley F F F D+ F 43% 14% 43% B- F C D D+ F A+ A A+ A A B- A A- 30% 36% 34% D+ B B+ D- C+ A- F+ B D
1.01 44% 17% 33% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.1 .40 24% .56 83% .47 0.72 43% 35% 25% -10 -3 0.77 19% 1.0 .19 26% .34 67% .23
Jan
10		 Alcorn St. F F+ A+ F F 35% 17% 48% D F D- D F+ C- C- F F C A- F C+ B- 46% 18% 36% F C C A- B- F C F D+
0.96 53% 63% 22% -6 0 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 19% .32 53% .17 0.99 48% 44% 33% -4 +1 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 14% .23 77% .18
Jan
12		 Jackson St. C+ A+ D+ D C+ 37% 18% 45% C- C F A+ C+ C- A+ A A+ F+ F+ F A- D- 32% 13% 55% F F+ A+ F B- F F C- F
1.23 78% 33% 32% +5 0 1.12 25% 1.6 .41 16% .63 79% .50 1.12 63% 63% 27% -1 0 1.02 15% 1.5 .22 12% .43 77% .34
Jan
19		 Alabama St. D- A+ F F F 33% 27% 40% F+ F F A+ D- B- A+ A- A+ C+ F D+ A F+ 26% 28% 47% B+ D F+ F F A+ D B D+
1.02 80% 17% 22% -5 -1 0.89 20% 1.5 .30 17% .49 83% .40 0.97 83% 38% 27% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.3 .47 28% .33 65% .21
Jan
24		 Texas Southern C- D- A+ A+ A- 42% 24% 33% D B F C F D C- F+ D F F A+ F F 37% 24% 39% C- F C D+ C- F F D F
1.10 53% 55% 47% +8 0 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 18% .36 65% .23 1.32 68% 17% 55% +11 0 1.24 27% 1.1 .30 10% .40 75% .30
Jan
27		 Prairie View C+ A+ B B- B+ 37% 33% 30% F B- F F F C+ F A+ F A- C- A A+ B 43% 34% 23% D+ B- F A+ A C+ A+ C A+
1.17 75% 44% 38% +10 -2 1.19 26% 0.9 .22 18% .23 92% .21 0.88 58% 26% 23% -8 -1 0.84 34% 0.3 .11 16% .21 75% .16
Jan
31		 Florida A&M C F+ F A+ D+ 32% 23% 45% D- D C- F D- B+ A A+ A+ D A+ A- F D+ 41% 27% 32% C D+ F A C- C- F F F
1.15 50% 20% 45% +1 -1 1.02 31% 0.7 .22 16% .44 91% .40 1.04 41% 27% 54% 0 -1 1.00 38% 0.6 .24 21% .48 75% .36
Feb
2		 Bethune-Cookman F F F F F 59% 10% 31% A- F D- F F D+ A+ B- A+ D F A+ F F 49% 18% 33% F+ F A A+ A D+ F A+ D
0.85 38% 0% 20% -22 +3 0.63 25% 0.9 .23 16% .46 75% .35 1.10 72% 22% 41% +8 +1 1.20 19% 0.7 .14 16% .46 54% .25
Feb
7		 Southern D+ F F A+ F 35% 37% 28% F F D- A+ C A+ A+ F A- F D- D F+ F 45% 20% 35% F F F B- F+ D- D F F+
1.04 44% 24% 46% -5 -2 0.87 26% 1.4 .35 12% .51 66% .33 1.24 65% 40% 39% +6 +1 1.16 43% 0.9 .40 14% .37 76% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Grambling St. D F C+ B D 45% 18% 36% C D F C D- D+ A+ C- A A- B A+ A+ A+ 40% 11% 49% F+ A+ C+ F+ D+ D- F F F
0.99 45% 38% 38% -4 +1 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 21% .46 71% .32 0.87 50% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.67 26% 1.1 .29 18% .49 89% .44



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.8 1.2 3.4 1st
2nd 0.7 8.6 7.6 0.7 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.4 11.0 1.2 18.7 3rd
4th 2.4 14.5 3.7 0.1 20.6 4th
5th 0.2 8.1 7.1 0.2 15.6 5th
6th 1.4 8.6 1.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 3.9 2.7 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.4 3.3 0.2 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 1.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.9 9.9 22.0 29.7 23.9 10.7 1.9 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 64.2% 1.2    0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 17.2% 1.8    0.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.9% 22.8% 22.8% 15.6 0.2 0.3 1.5
12-6 10.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.0 0.1 1.7 8.9
11-7 23.9% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 21.1
10-8 29.7% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 2.6 27.0
9-9 22.0% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 1.4 20.6
8-10 9.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 9.6
7-11 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 16.0 90.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 15.6 43.2 56.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%