Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#300
Expected Predictive Rating-9.8#315
Pace69.6#182
Improvement+0.5#148

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#304
First Shot-3.5#278
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#278
Layup/Dunks-1.2#229
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#125
Freethrows-2.9#329
Improvement-1.0#250

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#256
First Shot-2.4#251
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#202
Layups/Dunks+3.3#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#227
Freethrows-2.2#321
Improvement+1.5#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.7% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 10.6% 18.7% 6.2%
.500 or above in Conference 35.4% 52.4% 26.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 2.3% 7.2%
First Four1.1% 1.4% 0.9%
First Round1.3% 2.1% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Home) - 34.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 411 - 1012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 62 @West Virginia L 54-70 5%     0 - 1 -4.5 -9.8 +4.6
  Fri, Nov 7 308 Bucknell L 62-73 65%     0 - 2 -22.4 -10.4 -12.8
  Tue, Nov 11 361 @St. Francis (PA) W 74-66 68%     1 - 2 -4.5 -2.8 -1.5
  Sun, Nov 16 67 @Cincinnati L 55-72 5%     1 - 3 -5.8 -9.1 +4.0
  Wed, Nov 19 94 @Maryland L 90-95 OT 7%     1 - 4 +3.9 +11.9 -7.4
  Sun, Nov 23 280 @Western Michigan L 60-83 34%     1 - 5 -26.3 -13.9 -13.1
  Tue, Nov 25 31 @Ohio St. L 60-113 2%     1 - 6 -35.9 -8.7 -24.8
  Sat, Nov 29 265 Howard W 79-75 54%     2 - 6 -4.7 +3.3 -8.1
  Wed, Dec 3 250 Sacred Heart L 80-87 52%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -15.1 +5.2 -20.6
  Fri, Dec 5 157 @Marist L 56-64 16%     2 - 8 0 - 2 -4.8 -11.9 +7.3
  Sat, Dec 13 329 @Loyola Maryland W 81-73 48%     3 - 8 +1.0 -2.6 +3.1
  Fri, Dec 19 274 @Drexel L 67-75 33%     3 - 9 -11.0 -8.5 -2.4
  Mon, Dec 29 165 Iona L 75-79 35%    
  Fri, Jan 2 263 @Merrimack L 65-70 32%    
  Sun, Jan 4 160 @Quinnipiac L 70-81 16%    
  Fri, Jan 9 297 St. Peter's W 69-66 60%    
  Sun, Jan 11 179 Siena L 68-71 38%    
  Sat, Jan 17 347 @Canisius W 68-66 56%    
  Mon, Jan 19 352 @Niagara W 70-67 60%    
  Thu, Jan 22 160 Quinnipiac L 73-78 34%    
  Sat, Jan 24 344 Rider W 70-63 75%    
  Fri, Jan 30 297 @St. Peter's L 66-69 38%    
  Sun, Feb 1 313 Manhattan W 79-75 65%    
  Thu, Feb 5 263 Merrimack W 68-67 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 165 @Iona L 72-82 18%    
  Fri, Feb 13 344 @Rider W 67-66 55%    
  Fri, Feb 20 352 Niagara W 73-64 78%    
  Sun, Feb 22 347 Canisius W 71-63 75%    
  Fri, Feb 27 250 @Sacred Heart L 72-77 31%    
  Sun, Mar 1 277 @Fairfield L 71-75 35%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 4.6 4.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.1 4.9 1.4 0.1 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 5.3 5.6 1.7 0.1 14.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.8 6.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 12.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.5 6.4 9.4 13.1 15.4 14.7 12.8 9.8 6.3 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 80.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 55.4% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 22.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 15.4% 15.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.7% 15.8% 15.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-6 1.8% 8.9% 8.9% 15.6 0.1 0.1 1.7
13-7 3.8% 6.3% 6.3% 15.8 0.1 0.2 3.5
12-8 6.3% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.0
11-9 9.8% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.5
10-10 12.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 12.5
9-11 14.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.5
8-12 15.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.3
7-13 13.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.1
6-14 9.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.3
5-15 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.4
4-16 3.5% 3.5
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 98.2 0.0%