Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#307
Expected Predictive Rating-11.7#321
Pace68.3#216
Improvement-0.1#202

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#288
First Shot-2.2#236
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#304
Layup/Dunks+0.6#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#146
Freethrows-3.5#338
Improvement+0.9#107

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#298
First Shot-2.4#252
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#275
Layups/Dunks+3.1#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#340
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#181
Freethrows-2.1#302
Improvement-1.1#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.1% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 9.9% 16.1% 5.3%
.500 or above in Conference 33.2% 38.4% 29.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 8.0% 6.1% 9.4%
First Four1.0% 1.3% 0.8%
First Round1.0% 1.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 411 - 1012 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 65 @West Virginia L 54-70 4%     0 - 1 -4.4 -8.7 +3.6
  Fri, Nov 7 304 Bucknell L 62-73 61%     0 - 2 -21.9 -11.7 -11.0
  Tue, Nov 11 356 @St. Francis (PA) W 74-66 61%     1 - 2 -2.8 -1.0 -1.7
  Sun, Nov 16 68 @Cincinnati L 55-72 5%     1 - 3 -5.6 -9.3 +4.4
  Wed, Nov 19 86 @Maryland L 90-95 OT 6%     1 - 4 +4.1 +12.9 -8.3
  Sun, Nov 23 267 @Western Michigan L 60-83 31%     1 - 5 -25.9 -12.8 -13.8
  Tue, Nov 25 25 @Ohio St. L 60-113 2%     1 - 6 -35.5 -7.3 -25.8
  Sat, Nov 29 315 Howard W 79-75 63%     2 - 6 -7.5 +0.5 -8.0
  Wed, Dec 3 255 Sacred Heart L 80-87 51%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -15.4 +3.0 -18.6
  Fri, Dec 5 159 @Marist L 56-64 16%     2 - 8 0 - 2 -5.3 -10.5 +5.4
  Sat, Dec 13 319 @Loyola Maryland L 72-74 42%    
  Fri, Dec 19 256 @Drexel L 66-72 30%    
  Mon, Dec 29 174 Iona L 75-79 36%    
  Fri, Jan 2 277 @Merrimack L 66-71 33%    
  Sun, Jan 4 154 @Quinnipiac L 70-81 15%    
  Fri, Jan 9 329 St. Peter's W 71-66 66%    
  Sun, Jan 11 161 Siena L 67-72 33%    
  Sat, Jan 17 353 @Canisius W 68-66 56%    
  Mon, Jan 19 347 @Niagara W 68-67 51%    
  Thu, Jan 22 154 Quinnipiac L 73-78 31%    
  Sat, Jan 24 335 Rider W 73-68 69%    
  Fri, Jan 30 329 @St. Peter's L 68-69 45%    
  Sun, Feb 1 310 Manhattan W 77-74 61%    
  Thu, Feb 5 277 Merrimack W 69-68 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 174 @Iona L 72-82 19%    
  Fri, Feb 13 335 @Rider L 70-71 49%    
  Fri, Feb 20 347 Niagara W 71-64 72%    
  Sun, Feb 22 353 Canisius W 71-63 76%    
  Fri, Feb 27 255 @Sacred Heart L 75-81 30%    
  Sun, Mar 1 294 @Fairfield L 71-75 38%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 3.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 4.4 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.2 4.3 1.0 0.1 12.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.6 4.9 1.3 0.1 13.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.8 5.3 1.6 0.2 12.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.9 4.9 1.8 0.2 11.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.1 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.8 1.3 0.2 7.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 4.4 7.0 10.6 13.2 14.7 13.9 12.0 9.0 6.2 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 81.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 59.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 23.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.2% 8.5% 8.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.7% 14.0% 14.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
14-6 1.8% 8.8% 8.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.6
13-7 3.4% 7.8% 7.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 3.1
12-8 6.2% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.9
11-9 9.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 8.8
10-10 12.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.8
9-11 13.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.7
8-12 14.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.6
7-13 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.1
6-14 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.6
5-15 7.0% 7.0
4-16 4.4% 4.4
3-17 2.3% 2.3
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.4 98.5 0.0%