Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #288
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #279
Pace 70.1 #152
Improvement +2.5 #71

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #328 C- D+ F D B
Defense #207 C C+ F D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #115 1.11 #236 +0.5 #155
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #295 0.66 #310 -2.8 #313
Three Pointers 44% #129 0.98 #239 +0.7 #157
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #227 -1.7 #227
Freethrows 16.5 #251 67% #324 11.1 #285
Second Chance 26.6% #293 1.05 #173 0.28 #266
Turnovers 21.0% #358
Total Offense -6.3 #328

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #265 1.11 #110 +2.7 #91
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #196 0.86 #319 -0.8 #240
Three Pointers 45% #79 1.00 #172 -1.6 #254
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #167 +0.3 #167
Freethrows 19.8 #297 74% #291 14.8 #304
Second Chance 30.3% #162 0.98 #99 0.30 #121
Turnovers 13.2% #340
Total Defense -1.0 #207

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #69 -0.2% #144
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.9% #255 -0.5% #174
Possession Length 17.3 #165 17.2 #157
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #254 0.20 #285
Improvement -1.1 #246 +3.6 #24

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 1.8% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 6.8% 8.2% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 46.2% 52.6% 21.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 2.3%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 0.9%
First Round1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 412 - 813 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 52 @West Virginia L 54 - 70 4% -6  0 - 1 -2 -9 F A+ F +6 A- A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 319 Bucknell L 62 - 73 70% +1  0 - 2 -24 -11 F F F -14 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 358 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 66 67% +5  1 - 2 -4 -3 B+ F F -1 B+ B+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 49 @Cincinnati L 55 - 72 4% -0  1 - 3 -3 -8 C- D F +6 A- A+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 100 @Maryland L 90 - 95 OT 8% -2  1 - 4 +3 +12 A+ A- F -8 C- B F
 Sun, Nov 23 260 @Western Michigan L 60 - 83 32% -8  1 - 5 -25 -14 F F F -12 D C- F
 Tue, Nov 25 30 @Ohio St. L 60 - 113 2% -25  1 - 6 -36 -9 C F D -24 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 265 Howard W 79 - 75 56% +5  2 - 6 -5 +4 A+ C F -9 A F F
 Wed, Dec 3 270 Sacred Heart L 80 - 87 57% -3  2 - 7 0 - 1 -16 +3 B- A- D+ -20 A F F
 Fri, Dec 5 160 @Marist L 56 - 64 17% -2  2 - 8 0 - 2 -5 -11 F D F +6 C C- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 324 @Loyola Maryland W 81 - 73 49% +5  3 - 8 +1 -2 B- C+ F +2 D- A+ D
 Fri, Dec 19 203 @Drexel L 67 - 75 23% -11  3 - 9 -8 -5 B+ C F -3 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 227 Iona W 66 - 59 48% -2  4 - 9 1 - 2 +0 -13 D+ F F +12 A+ C- B+
 Fri, Jan 2 208 @Merrimack L 65 - 75 24% -6  4 - 10 1 - 3 -10 -6 F F F -4 C+ D+ D
 Sun, Jan 4 175 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 80 19% -9  4 - 11 1 - 4 -9 -2 F B- F -7 F A C
 Fri, Jan 9 220 St. Peter's W 70 - 65 47% -7  5 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -2 F C+ D+ +1 B+ A+ B-
 Sun, Jan 11 169 Siena L 50 - 67 37% -9  5 - 12 2 - 5 -21 -18 F C F -6 C+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 344 @Canisius W 78 - 68 56% -3  6 - 12 3 - 5 +1 +6 A F F -5 F A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 352 @Niagara W 68 - 58 59% -3  7 - 12 4 - 5 +0 +1 B F D+ +1 A+ F A-
 Thu, Jan 22 175 Quinnipiac L 62 - 77 38% -12  7 - 13 4 - 6 -19 -12 B- F F -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 354 Rider W 72 - 63 79%
 Fri, Jan 30 220 @St. Peter's L 64 - 71 26%
 Sun, Feb 1 327 Manhattan W 79 - 73 71%
 Thu, Feb 5 208 Merrimack L 67 - 68 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 227 @Iona L 70 - 76 27%
 Fri, Feb 13 354 @Rider W 69 - 66 60%
 Fri, Feb 20 352 Niagara W 70 - 62 79%
 Sun, Feb 22 344 Canisius W 71 - 63 76%
 Fri, Feb 27 270 @Sacred Heart L 74 - 78 35%
 Sun, Mar 1 274 @Fairfield L 72 - 76 35%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -7 -6 C- D+ F -1 C C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.8 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.3 0.3 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 5.5 7.2 1.5 0.0 15.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 8.1 12.6 3.9 0.2 25.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 6.8 11.9 4.0 0.2 23.6 8th
9th 0.2 3.2 7.3 3.0 0.2 13.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.1 0.2 7.0 10th
11th 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.1 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.0 9.0 17.3 23.9 22.7 14.7 6.9 1.8 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 12.9% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 19.4% 19.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 1.8% 6.6% 6.6% 15.5 0.1 0.1 1.7
12-8 6.9% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.1 0.2 6.6
11-9 14.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 14.3
10-10 22.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 22.2
9-11 23.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 23.6
8-12 17.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 17.1
7-13 9.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.9
6-14 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.0
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.9 98.3 0.0%