Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #216
Expected Predictive Rating -5.1 #240
Pace 62.3 #342
Improvement +3.0 #51

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #229 C- C- C- B- A+
Defense #212 C C+ C- D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #9 1.01 #335 +1.9 #110
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #338 0.61 #343 -4.1 #349
Three Pointers 40% #198 1.06 #120 +0.4 #168
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #230 -1.8 #229
Freethrows 21.2 #23 67% #336 14.1 #108
Second Chance 29.3% #226 1.02 #210 0.30 #222
Turnovers 17.3% #235
Total Offense -2.3 #229

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #177 1.10 #107 +0.9 #138
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #285 0.78 #206 +1.1 #106
Three Pointers 44% #96 1.05 #231 -2.3 #286
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #189 -0.4 #189
Freethrows 19.2 #267 79% #361 15.1 #322
Second Chance 29.0% #114 1.05 #181 0.30 #132
Turnovers 15.8% #220
Total Defense -1.1 #212

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.6% #13 0.9% #253
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.0% #293 -0.2% #181
Possession Length 18.7 #313 18.1 #300
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #264 0.15 #117
Improvement +3.9 #17 -0.9 #250

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.2% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 11.5% 19.8% 5.8%
.500 or above in Conference 44.2% 61.3% 32.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.6% 3.1%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round2.0% 3.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 34 - 95 - 12
Quad 47 - 512 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 14 252 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 67 67% +7  1 - 0 -1 +2 D+ A C -3 A+ F D
 Wed, Nov 19 191 South Alabama L 65 - 71 57% +6  1 - 1 -11 -5 C F D+ -6 D C+ D-
 Mon, Nov 24 145 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 74 24% -7  1 - 2 -7 -11 F D F +5 C A+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 147 North Dakota St. L 43 - 56 34% -10  1 - 3 -12 -24 F F F +10 C A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 328 North Alabama L 66 - 73 83% +2  1 - 4 -20 -11 F B+ C -10 C D+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 273 @Georgia St. L 73 - 77 49% -5  1 - 5 -7 +7 D- B+ A+ -14 D+ D+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 254 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 62 68% -5  1 - 6 -11 -14 F F D- +3 A- D A+
 Sat, Dec 20 135 @East Tennessee St. W 81 - 75 23% +1  2 - 6 +11 +21 A+ B- C+ -10 F B B
 Mon, Dec 29 162 Western Kentucky W 78 - 67 50% +12  3 - 6 1 - 0 +8 +6 A+ F F +2 A+ B+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 295 @Delaware W 67 - 64 55% +4  4 - 6 2 - 0 -2 +4 D+ C+ F -5 D- A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 94 @Liberty L 69 - 78 13% -4  4 - 7 2 - 1 -0 +5 F B A -6 A+ F D+
 Wed, Jan 7 192 Florida International W 71 - 64 57% +1  5 - 7 3 - 1 +2 +1 A B F +1 C A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 150 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 88 25% -5  5 - 8 3 - 2 -2 +8 A+ C D+ -10 C F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 124 Sam Houston St. L 62 - 77 39% -7  5 - 9 3 - 3 -16 -4 F D+ B+ -14 F D+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 228 Louisiana Tech W 64 - 60 63% +10  6 - 9 4 - 3 -3 +4 B- C- D -6 C F C
 Fri, Jan 23 128 Middle Tennessee L 66 - 68 41%
 Wed, Jan 28 192 @Florida International L 72 - 76 35%
 Sat, Jan 31 179 @Missouri St. L 65 - 70 32%
 Thu, Feb 5 162 @Western Kentucky L 69 - 75 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 150 Kennesaw St. L 74 - 75 46%
 Wed, Feb 11 256 UTEP W 69 - 64 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 133 New Mexico St. L 68 - 70 42%
 Wed, Feb 18 228 @Louisiana Tech L 61 - 64 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 124 @Sam Houston St. L 68 - 77 21%
 Thu, Feb 26 295 Delaware W 69 - 62 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 94 Liberty L 66 - 72 29%
 Thu, Mar 5 133 @New Mexico St. L 65 - 73 24%
 Sat, Mar 7 256 @UTEP L 66 - 67 45%
Totals 11 - 17 9 - 11 -3 -2 C- C- C- -1 C C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.5 4.9 4.9 0.7 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 7.1 1.7 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 8.1 3.8 0.2 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 7.1 6.0 0.5 0.0 14.8 8th
9th 0.5 4.4 6.3 1.1 0.0 12.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 1.4 0.0 8.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.3 2.1 5.7 11.7 16.8 19.2 17.5 13.3 7.5 4.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 62.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 29.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.4% 9.0% 9.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.5% 11.2% 11.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-7 4.0% 8.6% 8.6% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.6
12-8 7.5% 6.4% 6.4% 14.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 7.0
11-9 13.3% 3.6% 3.6% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 12.8
10-10 17.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.1 0.2 17.1
9-11 19.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 19.0
8-12 16.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.7
7-13 11.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.6
6-14 5.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.7
5-15 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.1 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%