Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 184
Expected Predictive Rating -2.7 211
Pace 63.1 325
Improvement +5.7 16

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #228 C- C- D+ B- B+
Defense C #146 C+ C+ C D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 8 52% 316 +2.7 94
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 311 34% 314 -3.1 326
Three Pointers 38% 238 35% 114 -0.5 197
1st FG Attempt 1.00 208 -1.0 206
Second Chance 30.0% 198 0.98 250 0.29 214
Turnovers 18.1% 260
Freethrows 0.37 21 68% 315 0.25 84
Total Offense -2.3 228

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 217 55% 99 +1.8 115
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 286 39% 229 +1.1 102
Three Pointers 46% 56 33% 153 -2.0 284
1st FG Attempt 1.00 144 +1.0 143
Second Chance 28.8% 104 1.03 184 0.30 129
Turnovers 16.6% 203
Freethrows 0.32 223 77% 356 0.25 288
Total Defense +0.8 146

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.5 20 +0.4 234
Shot Type Accuracy -2.5 264 -1.2 128
Possession Length 18.6 304 17.6 234
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 236 0.16 147
Improvement +3.5 #35 +2.3 #66

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 34% 45% 18%
.500 or above in Conference 90% 98% 81%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round6% 7% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 34 - 76 - 9
Quad 48 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 14 238 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 67 71% +7  80% 1 - 0 C -0 C +0 D+ A- C+ C -0 A+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 191 South Alabama L 65 - 71 63% +6  81% 1 - 1 D -11 D- -7 C- D- C- D+ -4 D+ C D-
 Mon, Nov 24 141 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 74 29% -7  13% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F -13 F D- F B+ +7 B- A+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 146 North Dakota St. L 43 - 56 41% -10  13% 1 - 3 D- -12 F -28 F D- F A+ +14 C+ A+ C-
 Mon, Dec 1 344 North Alabama L 66 - 73 89% +2  61% 1 - 4 F -22 F -14 F C+ C+ D- -9 C+ D F+
 Sat, Dec 13 276 @Georgia St. L 73 - 77 57% -5  5% 1 - 5 D+ -7 C+ +2 D- B+ A+ F+ -10 D D F
 Wed, Dec 17 267 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 62 76% -5  3% 1 - 6 D- -12 F -18 F F C- B +6 B+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 20 126 @East Tennessee St. W 81 - 75 27% +1  46% 2 - 6 B +11 A+ +18 A+ C+ C D -7 F B B
 Mon, Dec 29 160 Western Kentucky W 78 - 67 57% +12  89% 3 - 6 1 - 0 B- +8 B- +4 A+ F F B- +4 B+ B B-
 Fri, Jan 2 279 @Delaware W 67 - 64 59% +4  86% 4 - 6 2 - 0 C -1 C +1 C- B- F+ C -1 D A F
 Sun, Jan 4 95 @Liberty L 69 - 78 18% -4  23% 4 - 7 2 - 1 C -1 C +2 D- C+ A- C- -3 A+ F+ D
 Wed, Jan 7 188 Florida International W 71 - 64 63% +1  56% 5 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +2 C- -1 A- B+ F B- +4 C+ A B-
 Sat, Jan 10 154 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 88 33% -5  2% 5 - 8 3 - 2 C- -3 B- +5 A+ C- C- D- -8 C- F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 121 Sam Houston St. L 62 - 77 45% -7  1% 5 - 9 3 - 3 F+ -15 D- -6 D D B+ F+ -11 F D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 223 Louisiana Tech W 64 - 60 68% +10  98% 6 - 9 4 - 3 C- -2 C +1 C+ C- D+ C- -2 C+ F+ C-
 Fri, Jan 23 173 Middle Tennessee W 75 - 58 59% +9  95% 7 - 9 5 - 3 B+ +13 A- +10 A+ F+ C+ B+ +6 A C+ D-
 Wed, Jan 28 188 @Florida International W 78 - 74 40% -4  17% 8 - 9 6 - 3 B- +5 D- -6 C+ F C A +11 C+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 179 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 37% -7  6% 8 - 10 6 - 4 D+ -5 D -6 F+ A- F C+ +1 C- F+ C
 Thu, Feb 5 160 @Western Kentucky W 71 - 66 34% +1  52% 9 - 10 7 - 4 B- +8 D+ -3 F A F A +10 A- A+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 154 Kennesaw St. W 77 - 58 55% +11  92% 10 - 10 8 - 4 A- +16 B- +4 B+ C C+ A+ +13 A+ D+ C-
 Wed, Feb 11 239 UTEP L 64 - 69 71% -0  46% 10 - 11 8 - 5 D- -12 D+ -2 A- D+ D- F+ -11 F A- B-
 Sat, Feb 14 167 New Mexico St. W 70 - 68 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 223 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 64 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 121 @Sam Houston St. L 69 - 76 25%
 Thu, Feb 26 279 Delaware W 69 - 61 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 95 Liberty L 67 - 71 35%
 Thu, Mar 5 167 @New Mexico St. L 67 - 71 36%
 Sat, Mar 7 239 @UTEP L 65 - 66 49%
Totals 13 - 15 11 - 9 -2 C- -2 C- C- D+ C +1 C+ C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D D B- D+ 48% 14% 38% B+ C- C C- C- D+ B+ D B- C B- C- C C+ 37% 17% 46% C- C+ C+ C C+ C C- F D+
1.05 52% 34% 35% -2 +2 1.00 30% 1.0 .29 18% .37 68% .25 1.08 55% 39% 33% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.0 .30 17% .32 77% .28
Nov
14		 Coastal Carolina C D F B D- 47% 14% 39% A+ D+ D A+ A- C+ A C- A- C B+ F+ A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% D- A+ D- F F D- C- F F
1.11 48% 14% 37% -6 +1 0.92 24% 1.7 .39 12% .39 70% .27 1.00 47% 45% 16% -15 0 0.72 30% 1.3 .40 12% .27 94% .26
Nov
19		 South Alabama D- F D B- C- 33% 5% 62% B C- D D D- C- F F F D+ B- F B+ C- 57% 19% 23% D D+ B+ F C D- F B- D-
0.98 44% 33% 35% -3 +2 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 18% .07 25% .02 1.07 52% 56% 27% -3 +2 1.00 18% 1.5 .27 11% .41 63% .25
Nov
24		 Arkansas St. F F A+ F F 38% 16% 46% B- F B F D- F A+ F+ A+ B+ B A+ C- B- 39% 8% 53% D B- A+ C A+ B F D- F
0.86 47% 75% 17% -10 +1 0.84 31% 0.6 .18 20% .50 66% .33 1.01 53% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 22% 1.0 .22 22% .51 79% .40
Nov
26		 North Dakota St. F F F F F 29% 29% 43% D- F C- F D- F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ F C 23% 34% 43% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C- D- A+ C
0.69 42% 17% 22% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 24% .49 57% .28 0.90 70% 20% 42% +2 -3 1.00 23% 0.4 .09 16% .33 59% .19
Dec
1		 North Alabama F F F D+ F 46% 8% 46% B F D A+ C+ C+ A- F D- D- A- D B- B- 52% 10% 38% F C+ D+ D D F+ C- F D
1.00 41% 0% 32% -12 +2 0.81 31% 1.5 .45 14% .35 45% .16 1.11 44% 40% 30% -9 +2 0.88 32% 1.2 .37 14% .32 78% .25
Dec
13		 Georgia St. C+ F F B F 54% 10% 37% A D- C- A+ B+ A+ B- F D- F+ A+ F D+ D 21% 26% 53% C+ D C- F+ D F F F+ F
1.11 43% 20% 37% -8 +3 0.90 32% 1.3 .41 6% .32 50% .16 1.17 33% 45% 35% -3 -2 0.93 28% 1.2 .34 11% .54 84% .46
Dec
17		 Eastern Kentucky F F B+ F F 48% 14% 38% B+ F D+ F F C- A+ C+ A+ B A+ B D+ A 31% 13% 56% F B+ F+ C+ D A+ B F C-
0.93 45% 50% 25% -10 +1 0.86 31% 0.5 .17 16% .47 76% .36 0.98 29% 33% 36% -8 0 0.87 39% 1.1 .42 27% .22 90% .19
Dec
20		 East Tennessee St. A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 45% 5% 50% A- A+ A+ F C+ C A+ F A+ D B F F F 39% 21% 39% B- F A- C- B B F D+ F
1.31 61% 50% 55% +18 +2 1.43 42% 0.7 .31 19% .54 67% .36 1.21 53% 50% 53% +12 0 1.26 21% 1.2 .25 18% .57 79% .45
Dec
29		 Western Kentucky B- B A+ A+ A+ 46% 3% 51% A+ A+ F+ F F F A+ C A+ B- A A- A A- 31% 13% 56% C- B+ F A+ B B- F+ A- D+
1.13 63% 100% 50% +16 +3 1.40 20% 0.6 .12 25% .75 69% .52 0.97 41% 29% 27% -13 0 0.78 44% 0.6 .26 16% .36 67% .24
Jan
2		 Delaware C D+ F C- D- 51% 3% 46% A+ C- D A+ B- F+ A+ F A+ C D F C D 28% 10% 62% D D C+ A+ A F A+ F A+
1.11 55% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.03 26% 1.3 .33 18% .53 69% .37 1.06 64% 60% 35% +5 +1 1.14 19% 0.3 .06 13% .12 83% .10
Jan
4		 Liberty C D- F D+ F 51% 10% 39% A D- B- C- C+ A- A+ A+ A+ C- A A+ C- A+ 50% 4% 46% D+ A+ F B F+ D F F F
1.08 48% 20% 32% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.2 .40 14% .35 89% .31 1.23 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 31% 0.9 .28 11% .49 79% .39
Jan
7		 Florida International C- C- A A+ A- 44% 10% 46% B+ A- B- A- B+ F A B- A+ B- C- F+ A C+ 46% 23% 31% C+ C+ A+ F+ A B- D F F
1.10 56% 50% 42% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.2 .46 25% .41 75% .31 0.99 59% 45% 27% -1 0 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 19% .36 84% .30
Jan
10		 Kennesaw St. B- C A+ A+ A 55% 4% 40% A+ A+ C+ D C- C- B+ F C- D- C+ A D+ C- 48% 9% 43% D- C- C+ F F D- F D F
1.13 54% 50% 47% +6 +3 1.21 31% 0.9 .28 17% .45 63% .28 1.21 55% 25% 35% -2 +2 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 14% .54 74% .40
Jan
14		 Sam Houston St. D- F A+ F+ D- 47% 13% 40% B+ D C- D- D B+ B- F C F+ F A+ F F 49% 11% 40% F F B+ F D+ B- A+ C- A+
1.00 48% 50% 28% -7 +2 0.91 29% 0.9 .26 14% .36 63% .23 1.24 74% 20% 47% +14 +2 1.34 30% 1.3 .39 19% .14 71% .10
Jan
17		 Louisiana Tech C D+ F A C 45% 9% 45% B+ C+ D+ C+ C- D+ B+ B+ A- C- B+ F+ A C 40% 31% 29% B+ C+ F C- F+ C- C+ F F+
1.10 50% 0% 40% -3 +2 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 19% .38 78% .30 1.03 47% 46% 25% -6 -1 0.88 44% 0.9 .38 17% .27 92% .25
Jan
23		 Middle Tennessee A- D- F A+ A 60% 9% 32% A+ A+ C F F+ C+ B+ A A B+ A+ F B+ A+ 40% 17% 43% D- A C+ C C+ D- C A B-
1.23 50% 25% 60% +7 +3 1.21 26% 0.6 .15 15% .37 84% .31 0.95 42% 50% 30% -7 +1 0.89 28% 0.9 .25 13% .26 57% .15
Jan
28		 Florida International D- A- F F C- 62% 8% 30% A+ C+ F C- F C A+ D A+ A C C- A- B- 50% 10% 40% F C+ A+ C+ A A+ D D- D-
0.98 68% 25% 20% -1 +3 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 20% .50 69% .34 0.93 58% 40% 29% -3 +2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 24% .36 73% .26
Jan
31		 Missouri St. D B+ B F D 24% 50% 26% F F+ A+ D- A- F A+ B A+ C+ F C+ C+ D 21% 32% 47% A C- D+ D- F+ C D+ A B-
0.98 70% 43% 18% -1 -5 0.90 50% 0.9 .47 26% .54 78% .42 1.08 90% 33% 32% +4 -3 1.04 35% 1.3 .44 18% .37 57% .21
Feb
5		 Western Kentucky D+ F A F F 56% 26% 18% B+ F A- B+ A F A+ B- A+ A D A+ A+ A- 26% 22% 52% A- A- A- A+ A+ C F F F
0.99 41% 50% 14% -12 +1 0.79 37% 1.0 .37 22% .90 72% .65 0.92 57% 17% 25% -12 -1 0.76 27% 0.6 .16 14% .39 88% .34
Feb
7		 Kennesaw St. B- C- B- A B+ 41% 11% 48% B- B+ C C C C+ B- D C+ A+ A B- A+ A+ 31% 12% 57% B- A+ B+ F D+ C- C+ C+ C+
1.16 53% 40% 41% +3 +1 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 15% .43 71% .30 0.88 44% 33% 21% -16 +1 0.71 30% 1.2 .36 17% .34 68% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 UTEP D+ C+ D- A+ A- 37% 22% 41% C A- D+ C- D+ D- F+ F F F+ C- F+ F F 24% 17% 59% F+ F C+ A+ A- B- F D- F
1.07 60% 33% 47% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 22% .30 57% .17 1.15 60% 43% 46% +12 -1 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 18% .39 74% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 7.4 9.8 4.2 0.5 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 9.5 13.5 3.3 0.1 27.0 3rd
4th 0.1 5.8 13.2 3.5 0.1 22.6 4th
5th 1.1 9.2 3.7 0.1 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 3.1 4.0 0.3 7.3 6th
7th 0.2 3.0 0.5 3.7 7th
8th 0.5 0.9 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.5 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.4 8.2 20.0 27.7 24.5 13.2 4.4 0.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 8.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.6% 7.0% 7.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 4.4% 14.0% 14.0% 13.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.8
13-7 13.2% 9.8% 9.8% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 11.9
12-8 24.5% 7.3% 7.3% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.1 22.7
11-9 27.7% 5.3% 5.3% 15.4 0.9 0.6 26.2
10-10 20.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.1 0.4 19.5
9-11 8.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.1
8-12 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.4
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 14.9 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.9%