Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.4 290
Results Rating -8.9 307
Consistency 0.14 112
Pace 62.6 330
Improvement +0.9 152

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 305 D D+ B- F F
Defense C- 245 C D+ C+ D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 325 D 53% 297 -4.8 336
2 Pt. Jumpers 59% 17 B+ 44% 37 +7.4 2
Three Pointers 33% 338 F 28% 359 -7.2 353
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.1 359 D+ -2.4 264
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 321
Second Chance D 26.0% 301 C+ 1.06 127 D+ 0.28 262
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.8% 112
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 128
Turnovers B- 15.6% 109
Freethrows F 0.22 364 C+ 74% 155 F 0.16 358
Total Offense D -5.1 305

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 54% 89 B+ 8.0% 38
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 42 C+ 4.4% 144
Three Pointers C 84% 183 C- 1.1% 245
Total C- 54% 200 B 4.5% 58


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 28 C 59% 194 +3.9 309
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 229 B- 35% 76 -1.2 90
Three Pointers 36% 312 C- 35% 219 -2.0 93
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 288 C +0.0 179
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 197
Second Chance D+ 32.9% 288 C 1.04 198 D+ 0.34 269
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.0% 142
Other Turnovers C+ 7.7% 113
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 120
Freethrows F+ 0.38 348 C+ 72% 138 D- 0.27 341
Total Defense C- -2.3 245

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 261 C 11.0% 169
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 43% 356 A- 9.0% 29
Three Pointers C+ 83% 147 B+ 1.9% 33
Total D+ 59% 263 B 7.3% 59

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.1 363 16.0 13
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 315 0.19 243
Consistency 0.13 254 0.11 88
Improvement +2.6 61 -1.7 271

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 295 288 273
Results Rating Rank 324 308 268
Conference Record 10 - 6 10 - 6 10 - 6
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24% 41% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 24% 41% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four23% 40% 0%
First Round12% 20% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 415 - 1015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 66 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 5% -12  0% 0 - 1 D -11 F -21 F F B A +10 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 6 279 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 35% +7  78% 1 - 1 C+ +5 C- -1 C+ C F B+ +6 B+ A- B-
 Wed, Nov 12 338 @Canisius L 55 - 58 57% -3  16% 1 - 2 D- -12 F -15 F F+ D- B- +2 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 349 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 80% +13  93% 2 - 2 C- -2 B- +4 C- A+ D D -6 A- F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 91 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 7% -5  4% 2 - 3 C+ +4 B- +4 B C+ C- C -0 B+ C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 189 @Marshall L 60 - 69 21% -5  4% 2 - 4 D+ -8 F -12 F D C+ B- +3 D A C
 Sun, Nov 30 55 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 4% -18  0% 2 - 5 F -19 F -22 F C- F C- -2 B- F+ C+
 Fri, Dec 5 325 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 51% -2  19% 2 - 6 F+ -16 C- -1 F A+ A F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 113 @Davidson L 47 - 80 10% -17  0% 2 - 7 F -27 F -15 D F C+ F -18 F D D+
 Wed, Dec 17 77 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 6% -13  0% 2 - 8 C- -3 F -10 D C D A- +7 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 357 Binghamton W 82 - 61 86% +19  97% 3 - 8 C+ +2 D+ -3 D+ D+ B- B +5 B- A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 337 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 77% +0  45% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F -22 F+ -10 F C F+ F -13 F B A
 Sun, Jan 4 305 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 66% +8  86% 4 - 9 1 - 1 C+ +2 C +1 D+ A C B- +3 A+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 25% -4  29% 4 - 10 1 - 2 C- -3 D- -7 D- C+ B- B +4 B+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 314 @Wagner W 70 - 69 45% -1  30% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -3 C+ F A+ C- -3 D+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 330 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 74% +2  65% 5 - 11 2 - 3 F -19 F -20 F F C- C+ +1 C D+ B-
 Mon, Jan 19 310 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 68% +14  96% 6 - 11 3 - 3 B- +6 B +7 A+ C- C- C+ +1 A+ F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 326 @New Haven W 61 - 57 51% -0  37% 7 - 11 4 - 3 C- -4 D+ -3 C F+ C+ C+ +0 D- D+ A
 Sun, Jan 25 348 Chicago St. W 61 - 59 80% +3  85% 8 - 11 5 - 3 D- -14 F+ -10 C- F D+ D+ -4 C+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 326 New Haven W 70 - 51 72% +13  88% 9 - 11 6 - 3 B- +5 C +1 F A+ A+ B+ +7 A C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 348 @Chicago St. L 74 - 78 61% -2  27% 9 - 12 6 - 4 D- -14 D+ -3 C+ F A- F -12 F F C-
 Thu, Feb 5 355 St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 89 OT 84% +3  70% 10 - 12 7 - 4 D -9 C+ +3 F A+ C+ F -13 F C+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 337 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 52 - 55 57% -0  46% 10 - 13 7 - 5 D- -12 F -13 F D A- C -0 D+ C A
 Thu, Feb 12 305 @Le Moyne L 57 - 58 43% -1  37% 10 - 14 7 - 6 D+ -7 F -19 F F A+ A+ +12 C+ A A+
 Sat, Feb 14 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 79 67% +9  89% 11 - 14 8 - 6 C+ +3 A +14 B+ A- A F -10 F B+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 314 Wagner L 80 - 83 OT 68% -4  19% 11 - 15 8 - 7 F+ -15 D -6 D D B- F+ -9 C- D- B
 Sat, Feb 21 219 LIU Brooklyn W 91 - 83 46% +2  51% 12 - 15 9 - 7 C +1 A +14 A- B A+ F -12 F A- D+
 Thu, Feb 26 310 @Central Connecticut St. L 78 - 80 45% -0  35% 12 - 16 9 - 8 D+ -8 C +1 C+ D B F+ -9 D- F F+
 Sat, Feb 28 330 @Stonehill W 75 - 72 OT 53% -4  16% 13 - 16 10 - 8 D+ -5 D -5 F F+ A C -0 B+ F+ F
 Wed, Mar 4 337 Fairleigh Dickinson W 70 - 61 77% +7  96% 14 - 16 D+ -6 D- -7 C+ F D B- +2 B- B B-
 Sat, Mar 7 330 Stonehill W 67 - 60 74%
Totals 15 - 16 10 - 8 -7 D -5 A- D+ F C- -2 F C+ F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D B+ F D+ 33% 59% 33% F D D C+ D+ B- F C+ F C- C B- C- C 45% 19% 36% D+ C D+ C D+ C+ F+ C+ D-
1.01 53% 44% 28% -2 -2 0.93 26% 1.1 .28 16% .22 74% .16 1.12 59% 35% 35% 0 +1 1.03 33% 1.0 .34 18% .38 72% .16
Nov
3		 Northwestern F F A+ F F 30% 38% 32% F F F F F B D- B+ D+ A A+ B- A+ A+ 48% 17% 35% F A+ F F F A F B F
0.70 31% 50% 6% -17 -3 0.62 21% 0.6 .12 16% .23 77% .18 1.04 41% 38% 19% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.5 .61 18% .68 71% .49
Nov
6		 Loyola Chicago C- D A+ C C+ 40% 22% 38% C C+ C+ D+ C F A C A B+ C+ A+ B+ A 45% 6% 49% D- B+ B A A- B- F F+ F
1.08 50% 60% 35% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.0 .31 18% .38 76% .29 0.96 55% 0% 29% -7 +2 0.92 27% 0.7 .19 21% .43 74% .32
Nov
12		 Canisius F F A+ F D- 17% 33% 50% F F F C- F+ D- F B- F B- D+ F A+ F+ 47% 21% 32% F+ F+ A- B+ A- B- F A+ F
0.89 50% 63% 21% -3 -3 0.90 21% 1.0 .21 18% .16 75% .12 0.94 56% 63% 25% 0 +1 1.03 19% 0.8 .15 21% .54 58% .31
Nov
15		 Morgan St. B- B+ F A B- 32% 28% 40% F C- B A+ A+ D A F C D D A+ A+ A- 38% 43% 20% A A- F F+ F A+ F F F
1.27 69% 29% 40% +4 -1 1.08 41% 1.7 .69 16% .49 61% .30 1.06 60% 18% 25% -11 -3 0.75 51% 1.0 .51 24% .74 84% .62
Nov
20		 Miami (OH) B- A- A+ C B+ 28% 28% 45% D- B C+ C C+ C- D+ D- D C F A+ A B+ 42% 18% 40% C- B+ D B+ C B- F F F
1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17 1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48
Nov
23		 Marshall F D+ C- F F 40% 34% 26% D F D+ D- D C+ D- F F B- B+ A+ F D 25% 18% 57% D+ D C A+ A C D- F F
0.95 55% 35% 15% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.8 .27 16% .30 56% .17 1.09 55% 13% 48% +6 -1 1.14 30% 0.8 .24 17% .31 81% .25
Nov
30		 West Virginia F F F+ C F 35% 37% 28% F F F A+ C- F F F F C- C+ F A+ B+ 54% 10% 35% F B- F D+ F+ C+ F B- D-
0.63 33% 25% 33% -14 -2 0.70 17% 1.3 .22 25% .18 13% .02 1.15 58% 60% 24% -4 +2 1.00 40% 1.1 .46 16% .39 65% .26
Dec
5		 Lafayette C- D- C- F F 29% 43% 28% F F B+ A+ A+ A F C F F A- A F F 43% 9% 48% D- F F F F A+ D F F
1.11 53% 36% 25% -6 -4 0.83 37% 1.6 .61 9% .14 75% .10 1.24 47% 25% 57% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .40 24% .33 94% .31
Dec
13		 Davidson F A+ F F D+ 33% 38% 29% F D F C- F C+ B- F F+ F F F+ F F 62% 10% 29% F F F A- D D+ D- C D
0.80 79% 19% 25% -4 -3 0.88 9% 1.0 .09 17% .33 44% .14 1.36 69% 50% 58% +18 +3 1.45 42% 0.9 .38 15% .34 65% .22
Dec
17		 Syracuse F B F+ F C- 34% 38% 28% F D C- C+ C D F D+ F A- B F A+ A 50% 18% 32% D A- F+ F F A+ B F C
0.87 61% 25% 27% -7 -3 0.83 30% 1.2 .35 21% .18 70% .12 1.07 56% 56% 25% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 22% .29 75% .22
Dec
20		 Binghamton D+ C A D+ C- 43% 31% 26% F+ D+ D- B- D+ B- F A+ F B D+ A+ B B+ 55% 20% 25% F B- A A+ A+ B F D+ F
1.18 60% 50% 33% +4 -1 1.09 26% 1.1 .29 10% .19 83% .16 0.88 59% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.93 11% 0.0 .00 23% .58 77% .45
Jan
2		 Fairleigh Dickinson F+ C+ A+ F F 35% 28% 37% D- F C- C+ C F+ B+ A+ A+ F C F F F 59% 9% 32% F F D- A+ B A D- F+ F+
1.05 63% 54% 18% -3 -1 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .38 90% .35 1.16 58% 75% 50% +11 +3 1.30 36% 0.6 .23 23% .33 75% .24
Jan
4		 Le Moyne C F A+ C+ C- 38% 32% 30% F+ D+ A- A- A C B- A+ A- B- B C A+ A+ 46% 16% 38% D+ A+ F D F D+ B+ A+ A
1.16 44% 47% 36% -2 -1 0.96 38% 1.2 .47 14% .35 84% .29 0.94 52% 38% 16% -13 +1 0.78 35% 1.1 .38 19% .27 57% .15
Jan
8		 LIU Brooklyn D- F A+ F D 45% 35% 20% F D- D- A+ C+ B- F F F B A C- C B+ 47% 33% 20% B B+ D+ A+ B+ D F D+ F
0.96 45% 53% 20% -5 -1 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 17% .14 57% .08 1.00 48% 40% 33% -4 -1 0.91 37% 0.7 .26 18% .39 68% .26
Jan
10		 Wagner D+ C- A- B C+ 51% 22% 27% C- C+ F F F A+ C- A B- C- A+ F F C+ 53% 8% 39% F D+ C+ F D C- D+ A+ B-
1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28 1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17
Jan
17		 Stonehill F C F+ F F+ 41% 43% 16% F F C F F C- F+ F F C+ D A+ A B- 53% 13% 33% F C B- F D+ B- F A+ F
0.82 57% 29% 22% -7 -3 0.82 28% 0.3 .09 13% .21 54% .12 0.89 58% 0% 27% -9 +2 0.89 25% 1.1 .28 21% .44 54% .24
Jan
19		 Central Connecticut St. B D+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 33% 29% F A+ C+ D- C- C- F A+ F C+ B A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% F+ A+ F D F C- D D+ D
1.28 53% 59% 60% +16 -2 1.31 33% 0.9 .30 13% .07 100% .07 0.99 53% 25% 21% -13 -1 0.75 38% 1.1 .40 16% .29 80% .23
Jan
23		 New Haven D+ D+ B+ B+ C 48% 24% 28% C- C F A+ F+ C+ F A+ F C+ F F+ A+ D- 44% 23% 33% C- D- D D+ D+ A F C+ F
1.04 55% 45% 38% +2 0 1.07 12% 1.7 .20 15% .14 100% .14 0.97 71% 44% 23% +1 0 1.05 24% 1.0 .24 24% .38 71% .27
Jan
25		 Chicago St. F+ A- C+ A B- 16% 34% 50% F C- F C F D+ F D- F D+ A A+ F B- 25% 27% 48% C- C+ C C- C- F B C+ B
1.06 71% 40% 41% +8 -3 1.11 24% 1.1 .28 21% .15 71% .11 1.02 42% 15% 39% -7 -2 0.85 29% 1.0 .29 10% .21 73% .15
Jan
29		 New Haven C F C C- F 35% 35% 29% F F C A+ A+ A+ C A+ B- B+ A- F A+ A 38% 31% 31% B+ A B- D+ C+ F+ F A+ F
1.15 28% 39% 33% -11 -2 0.76 27% 1.9 .51 7% .26 87% .23 0.84 50% 54% 8% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 15% .44 61% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Chicago St. D+ A+ A- D B 37% 25% 37% F+ C+ D+ F F A- F D- F F B+ B+ F F 29% 29% 42% D+ F F D- F C- F A+ F
1.11 79% 46% 32% +8 -1 1.18 32% 0.5 .15 15% .25 71% .18 1.17 46% 31% 47% +3 -2 1.04 36% 1.1 .39 15% .53 63% .34
Feb
5		 St. Francis (PA) C+ F A+ F F 41% 22% 37% D F A+ A A+ C+ A+ A A+ F C+ D F F 44% 18% 39% F+ F D- A C+ C F C+ F+
1.27 45% 58% 25% -6 0 0.91 49% 1.4 .67 17% .47 80% .37 1.15 56% 40% 45% +6 +1 1.16 32% 0.8 .24 19% .35 68% .24
Feb
7		 Fairleigh Dickinson F C+ B F F 24% 39% 37% F F F+ C+ D A- F C- F C F A+ A+ D+ 38% 15% 46% D- D+ F A C A D F F
0.96 64% 44% 24% -2 -3 0.91 20% 1.0 .20 11% .15 71% .10 1.01 80% 17% 22% -3 +1 0.97 39% 0.7 .29 24% .32 85% .27
Feb
12		 Le Moyne F F C- F F 23% 33% 44% F F F C+ F A+ F A F A+ F B A+ B- 51% 19% 30% D+ C+ C- A+ A A+ D+ A+ B
0.83 46% 32% 20% -14 -3 0.68 19% 1.1 .21 9% .17 82% .14 0.84 71% 33% 14% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.4 .11 26% .35 56% .20
Feb
14		 St. Francis (PA) A A+ A+ B+ A 38% 22% 40% D B+ C A+ A- A D- A+ C+ F D- B+ F F 55% 15% 30% F F A D+ B+ F F A F
1.37 79% 55% 40% +15 0 1.32 33% 1.5 .50 13% .30 89% .27 1.15 65% 29% 43% +7 +2 1.19 19% 1.0 .19 15% .56 61% .34
Feb
19		 Wagner D F B+ B+ C- 33% 33% 33% F D C- D- D B- B+ F C F+ A+ F F D 30% 36% 34% A+ C- D- C- D- B F F F
1.07 44% 44% 39% 0 -2 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 12% .41 63% .26 1.11 33% 50% 41% +1 -3 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 21% .51 80% .41
Feb
21		 LIU Brooklyn A F A+ C+ A+ 38% 30% 32% F A- C+ B+ B A+ C+ A+ B+ F F F C F 40% 29% 31% B F A- B+ A- D+ F+ F F
1.30 45% 81% 35% +9 -1 1.17 35% 1.2 .42 11% .34 81% .28 1.19 84% 50% 33% +13 -1 1.27 28% 0.9 .24 19% .35 80% .28
Feb
26		 Central Connecticut St. C C+ A+ F B 44% 29% 27% F+ C+ F+ B+ D B D+ B+ C- F+ D D+ F F+ 43% 36% 21% C- D- B F F F+ F A- F
1.15 58% 63% 27% +4 -1 1.09 23% 1.1 .26 10% .23 86% .20 1.18 65% 41% 40% +6 -2 1.11 22% 2.0 .44 13% .47 71% .34
Feb
28		 Stonehill D F C- C- D- 27% 53% 20% F F C- F F+ A A- A- A C A+ A+ D+ A- 44% 19% 37% D+ B+ C+ F F+ F F A F
0.98 44% 34% 33% -6 -5 0.80 27% 0.8 .20 8% .35 76% .27 0.94 38% 20% 35% -12 +1 0.80 26% 1.3 .33 16% .43 61% .26
Mar
4		 Fairleigh Dickinson D- C+ A+ B- B- 35% 30% 35% F+ C+ F F F D D A+ C+ B- F B- A C- 13% 43% 43% A+ B- B B B B- F B- F
1.08 63% 57% 38% +9 -2 1.17 16% 0.5 .08 17% .30 88% .26 0.94 83% 35% 25% -4 -5 0.85 28% 0.8 .23 20% .41 67% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 100.0% 23.9% 23.9% 16.0 23.9 76.1
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 16.0 76.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 23.9% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 34.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 42.1%