Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -6.7 282
Results Rating -3.2 223
Consistency 0.11 16
Pace 64.4 289
Improvement +6.0 23

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 191 D+ C C- C D+
Defense D 323 D+ D+ D C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 136 C- 56% 214 +0.2 174
2 Pt. Jumpers 59% 18 C+ 40% 124 +3.2 42
Three Pointers 32% 343 D+ 31% 284 -5.7 342
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 292 C- -1.5 229
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 251
Second Chance B 34.6% 60 D 0.93 315 C 0.32 150
Opponents' Steals C- 10.2% 262
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 234
Turnovers C- 17.8% 255
Freethrows C 0.30 187 C+ 74% 156 C 0.22 163
Total Offense C- -1.1 191

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 51% 132 C 10.9% 170
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 230 B+ 2.1% 17
Three Pointers C+ 86% 136 C 0.8% 172
Total D+ 52% 263 C+ 5.2% 136


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 124 C 58% 186 +1.4 220
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 329 D 42% 307 -1.2 88
Three Pointers 43% 100 D+ 36% 285 +2.7 306
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 316 D+ +2.0 265
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 273
Second Chance F+ 36.0% 347 B- 0.97 84 D+ 0.35 283
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.4% 266
Other Turnovers D 6.2% 313
Turnovers D 14.6% 310
Freethrows C- 0.32 253 C+ 72% 130 C- 0.23 243
Total Defense D -5.7 323

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 285 C- 9.2% 241
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 293 C- 4.2% 211
Three Pointers C- 85% 214 D+ 0.4% 276
Total D 61% 303 D+ 4.6% 252

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.0 332 16.7 67
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 313 0.23 345
Consistency 0.12 124 0.11 53
Improvement +5.0 10 +1.1 131

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 290 282 263
Results Rating Rank 233 227 190
Conference Record 15 - 5 15 - 5 15 - 5
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 35% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four10% 23% 0%
First Round9% 22% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 415 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 69 @Wake Forest L 65 - 81 5% -8  21% 0 - 1 C- -4 F -14 F C- F A+ +12 A+ D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 26 @Georgia L 81 - 120 2% -21  0% 0 - 2 F -20 C +1 F+ A+ C- F -17 F F D-
 Tue, Nov 11 40 @Clemson L 56 - 83 3% -17  0% 0 - 3 D -10 C +1 F A+ C F -16 C- F F
 Fri, Nov 21 140 @East Tennessee St. L 62 - 77 15% -2  42% 0 - 4 D -11 D- -7 C F F D -5 B+ F+ D
 Sat, Nov 22 354 Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 80 77% +0  56% 1 - 4 D- -11 D+ -2 D+ C- C F+ -9 D+ C+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 327 @IU Indianapolis L 80 - 85 54% -2  37% 1 - 5 D- -13 F -13 F F F C+ +0 F A C-
 Tue, Dec 2 124 @Murray St. L 52 - 84 13% -10  17% 1 - 6 F -26 F -22 F F C D -6 B- F+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 271 @Presbyterian L 72 - 80 36% -3  21% 1 - 7 D -11 C- -2 B F C+ F+ -10 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 64 68% +10  85% 2 - 7 1 - 0 C+ +3 D- -8 D+ C+ F A +9 B+ C C+
 Sat, Dec 20 336 @Southern Indiana W 64 - 60 OT 59% -5  13% 3 - 7 2 - 0 D+ -5 D- -7 F D- B+ B- +2 C- B+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 269 @Lindenwood L 64 - 77 36% -6  2% 3 - 8 2 - 1 F+ -16 F+ -9 F+ C- D+ D- -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 256 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 72 34% -2  31% 4 - 8 3 - 1 C -1 B+ +8 A D+ F F+ -9 F+ D F+
 Thu, Jan 8 231 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 51% +3  71% 4 - 9 3 - 2 F+ -15 C+ +3 C B+ D+ F -19 F F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 224 Southeast Missouri St. W 71 - 69 50% -4  9% 5 - 9 4 - 2 C- -5 B +6 A+ C- D- F -11 C C- F
 Thu, Jan 15 199 @Tennessee St. L 100 - 105 OT 23% -5  2% 5 - 10 4 - 3 C- -4 A +14 C- C A+ F -18 F D- D
 Sat, Jan 17 312 @Tennessee Tech W 76 - 70 48% +7  80% 6 - 10 5 - 3 C -0 B- +5 F+ A B+ D -5 B- F F
 Thu, Jan 22 364 Western Illinois W 71 - 66 92% +1  56% 7 - 10 6 - 3 F+ -17 D- -8 F A D+ F+ -9 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 321 Eastern Illinois W 73 - 68 73% +0  43% 8 - 10 7 - 3 D -8 C+ +3 B A F F -11 B+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 256 SIU Edwardsville W 67 - 65 56% -2  28% 9 - 10 8 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -3 C F+ A- D+ -3 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 269 Lindenwood L 78 - 79 59% +2  59% 9 - 11 8 - 4 D -10 C- -2 D F+ A F+ -8 F C+ B+
 Thu, Feb 5 224 @Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 82 28% -9  0% 9 - 12 8 - 5 D- -13 D+ -3 B- C D- F+ -10 F F A
 Sat, Feb 7 231 @Tennessee Martin W 61 - 55 29% +0  40% 10 - 12 9 - 5 B- +5 C -0 D+ C+ D B+ +6 A+ B F
 Thu, Feb 12 312 Tennessee Tech W 73 - 66 70% +10  93% 11 - 12 10 - 5 D+ -5 C +1 C+ D+ C D -5 B+ F F
 Sat, Feb 14 199 Tennessee St. W 94 - 86 44% +6  82% 12 - 12 11 - 5 C+ +3 A+ +16 A+ A+ D+ F -14 B- F+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 321 @Eastern Illinois W 73 - 70 52% +4  75% 13 - 12 12 - 5 C- -4 C +1 A F F+ D -6 C F F
 Sat, Feb 21 364 @Western Illinois W 81 - 59 81% +14  99% 14 - 12 13 - 5 B- +6 B +7 D A+ C C+ +1 F C- C
 Tue, Feb 24 336 Southern Indiana W 64 - 63 79% +1  57% 15 - 12 14 - 5 D- -14 D- -6 F F A+ D- -8 D- D D
 Thu, Feb 26 301 @Arkansas Little Rock W 76 - 70 45% +9  96% 16 - 12 15 - 5 C +1 B- +4 D- A+ B D+ -3 C D- F
Totals 16 - 12 15 - 5 -7 C- -1 D+ C- D+ D -6 D+ C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C+ D+ C- 40% 59% 32% D+ D+ B D C C- C C+ C D C D D+ D+ 41% 16% 43% D D+ F+ B- D+ D C- C+ C-
1.07 56% 40% 31% -2 -1 0.97 35% 0.9 .32 18% .30 74% .22 1.17 58% 42% 36% +2 +1 1.08 36% 1.0 .35 15% .32 72% .22
Nov
7		 Wake Forest F D+ F F F 33% 10% 57% B- F C- C- C- F C- A C+ A+ A B- A A+ 54% 10% 36% F A+ F A+ D A+ F A+ F+
0.82 53% 20% 21% -15 +1 0.75 27% 1.0 .27 24% .28 82% .23 1.02 48% 40% 28% -9 +2 0.90 50% 0.9 .43 24% .49 60% .30
Nov
9		 Georgia C F D+ D+ F 44% 22% 35% C+ F+ A A+ A+ C- B+ D B- F F A+ F F 48% 5% 48% F+ F F+ F F D- D B- D+
1.01 38% 33% 32% -11 0 0.80 43% 1.3 .55 20% .31 65% .20 1.50 72% 0% 45% +13 +3 1.33 43% 1.4 .59 11% .37 73% .27
Nov
11		 Clemson C F C F F 27% 31% 42% D- F A+ B- A+ C D- D+ D- F C F D C- 37% 14% 49% C+ C- F C F F C+ D- C
0.94 33% 36% 21% -16 -2 0.67 43% 1.0 .43 18% .23 73% .16 1.39 61% 57% 38% +6 +1 1.16 41% 1.0 .41 8% .33 78% .26
Nov
21		 East Tennessee St. D- B+ B- C+ B- 31% 33% 36% F C B+ F F F A+ D+ A+ D C- F A+ A 56% 13% 31% F B+ F A F+ D F C F
0.95 67% 38% 36% +4 -2 1.05 35% 0.5 .16 28% .51 71% .36 1.18 60% 50% 14% -7 +2 0.93 42% 0.9 .39 14% .59 76% .45
Nov
22		 Louisiana Monroe D+ C+ D- A+ C 36% 30% 34% F D+ B+ F C- C A+ D- A+ F+ A- F C+ D+ 38% 14% 48% D- D+ F A+ C+ D B D C+
1.17 65% 36% 44% +7 -1 1.13 42% 0.9 .39 16% .48 66% .32 1.13 45% 63% 32% -3 +1 0.98 34% 0.7 .23 14% .28 76% .21
Nov
29		 IU Indianapolis F B- F F F 47% 22% 31% D F C+ F F F A+ B A+ C+ F A C- F 29% 11% 60% D- F A+ B- A C- B+ F B-
0.98 65% 18% 27% -4 0 0.94 38% 0.7 .26 27% .54 78% .42 1.04 83% 29% 34% +6 +1 1.16 18% 1.0 .18 16% .13 78% .10
Dec
2		 Murray St. F F A F F 49% 30% 21% C- F F F F C F F F D C B+ B B+ 46% 6% 48% F B- F A F+ C+ F A- F
0.77 35% 50% 27% -10 0 0.81 23% 0.6 .13 16% .18 50% .09 1.25 59% 33% 30% -2 +2 1.02 48% 0.9 .45 16% .52 69% .36
Dec
6		 Presbyterian C- C- C- A+ B 44% 15% 40% C+ B F F F C+ D B+ C- F+ D F C+ F 43% 20% 36% D F F A- F A+ F B+ F
1.06 57% 38% 43% +5 +1 1.13 21% 0.6 .12 15% .26 73% .19 1.18 63% 56% 31% +4 0 1.11 53% 0.9 .47 25% .59 63% .37
Dec
16		 Arkansas Little Rock D- B- F B+ D+ 57% 22% 22% C+ D+ B+ D C+ F A+ B+ A+ A C- A- A+ A 38% 32% 30% D+ B+ A+ F C C+ F F+ F
1.05 65% 20% 40% +2 +1 1.09 42% 0.8 .35 24% .44 76% .34 0.86 61% 27% 21% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.7 .29 19% .41 72% .30
Dec
20		 Southern Indiana D- F+ F+ D+ F 54% 28% 18% D+ F D F+ D- B+ A F+ B B- A+ A D D+ 17% 25% 58% A C- F A+ B+ B- F F F
1.01 48% 29% 33% -8 0 0.86 29% 0.8 .23 13% .40 68% .27 0.95 25% 25% 36% -7 -2 0.83 40% 0.4 .18 19% .43 77% .33
Jan
1		 Lindenwood F+ C+ D+ F F+ 40% 24% 36% D F+ C- C- C- D+ F+ D F D- D+ F F F 55% 8% 37% F F A+ A+ A+ F F+ A+ B-
0.92 60% 33% 22% -7 0 0.88 31% 1.0 .31 19% .27 67% .18 1.11 61% 75% 42% +9 +3 1.25 15% 0.4 .06 14% .37 50% .19
Jan
3		 SIU Edwardsville B+ A+ A D+ A 43% 19% 38% B A C- D D+ F A+ B+ A+ F+ B- F C D- 38% 20% 42% F F+ F A D F+ D F D-
1.15 72% 50% 31% +7 +1 1.17 31% 0.9 .27 24% .45 77% .35 1.13 53% 60% 33% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.8 .33 14% .29 75% .22
Jan
8		 Tennessee Martin C+ C+ C- F+ C- 47% 13% 40% A C A+ F+ B+ D+ B+ D+ B F D F F F 36% 18% 45% C- F F C+ F+ F F C F
1.10 62% 33% 28% -3 +2 1.00 51% 0.8 .40 21% .39 68% .27 1.23 63% 50% 40% +8 0 1.18 46% 0.8 .39 16% .52 67% .35
Jan
10		 Southeast Missouri St. B A+ A+ A A+ 41% 34% 24% F A+ A F C- D- D+ D D F D- A A- C 41% 22% 37% B- C F+ A C- F D- C+ D
1.18 71% 57% 40% +14 -2 1.27 38% 0.8 .29 20% .37 72% .27 1.14 65% 27% 28% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 8% .38 67% .25
Jan
15		 Tennessee St. A F A+ A C 40% 26% 33% F+ C- B D- C A+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ F F F 39% 34% 27% C+ F C+ F D- D F A- F+
1.29 48% 53% 42% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.9 .33 10% .49 85% .42 1.35 68% 47% 67% +20 -2 1.39 31% 1.3 .41 14% .39 69% .27
Jan
17		 Tennessee Tech B- D D A- D 31% 39% 31% F F+ A+ D A B+ B- C+ B- D B- D+ A+ B 57% 21% 21% F B- F+ F F F F A F+
1.20 53% 32% 40% -1 -3 0.94 46% 1.1 .51 11% .32 78% .25 1.10 52% 40% 20% -8 +1 0.89 35% 1.3 .44 13% .40 68% .27
Jan
22		 Western Illinois D- C- F+ F F 48% 27% 25% D F A+ D- A D+ B+ F D- F+ A+ D+ D- D+ 33% 25% 42% C- D+ C- F F F A- A+ A+
1.10 61% 31% 17% -7 0 0.88 50% 1.0 .52 16% .37 50% .18 1.03 35% 38% 36% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.4 .36 11% .23 46% .10
Jan
24		 Eastern Illinois C+ C A- A+ A 38% 43% 20% F B A+ D+ A F A+ A+ A+ F A+ B F A- 45% 28% 28% D- B+ F C+ F C+ F F F
1.17 60% 47% 50% +9 -3 1.15 52% 1.0 .52 27% .53 88% .46 1.09 24% 31% 46% -12 0 0.77 51% 0.9 .49 19% .48 83% .40
Jan
29		 SIU Edwardsville D+ B- D- C C+ 45% 34% 20% D+ C D- F F+ A- A+ C- A D+ D+ B+ F F 33% 20% 47% F+ F B+ A+ A+ D+ A- A- A-
1.04 60% 33% 33% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.8 .20 12% .42 71% .30 1.01 59% 30% 42% +4 0 1.10 23% 0.5 .11 17% .19 60% .11
Jan
31		 Lindenwood C- B C+ F C- 41% 33% 27% F D D- D- F+ A A+ A- A+ F+ F A+ F F 30% 20% 50% B F B- C- C+ B+ F D+ F
1.08 65% 38% 23% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 12% .47 77% .36 1.09 77% 0% 45% +6 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .32 22% .51 69% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Southeast Missouri St. D+ D A+ B- B 48% 23% 29% C B- D+ A C D- F B- F F+ B+ F F F 51% 13% 36% F F F F F A F C F+
1.00 52% 64% 36% +4 0 1.10 24% 1.3 .32 20% .25 79% .20 1.17 50% 50% 47% +4 +2 1.15 37% 1.4 .50 21% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Tennessee Martin C D D- A C 22% 41% 37% F D+ B+ D C+ D B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B A+ A+ 27% 7% 67% D- A+ F A+ B F F C- F
1.01 56% 29% 40% -1 -4 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 22% .38 89% .34 0.91 42% 33% 20% -19 +1 0.67 45% 0.6 .25 15% .49 68% .33
Feb
12		 Tennessee Tech C A B+ D- B 42% 32% 26% D C+ B F D+ C B+ A- A- D B- A+ A+ A 50% 16% 34% F B+ F C- F F C+ B B-
1.17 71% 44% 31% +6 -1 1.12 35% 0.9 .32 14% .34 83% .28 1.06 52% 25% 24% -10 +1 0.84 38% 1.1 .41 11% .27 73% .20
Feb
14		 Tennessee St. A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 11% 35% B A+ A+ B A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ F A A+ F B- 31% 33% 35% B B- F C- F+ F F F F
1.36 60% 80% 50% +14 +2 1.35 44% 1.2 .52 20% .51 79% .40 1.24 47% 25% 41% -4 -2 0.90 39% 1.1 .41 10% .58 89% .51
Feb
19		 Eastern Illinois C C- A+ B- A 49% 13% 38% B A D- F F F+ B+ D B- D D+ C+ A+ B- 48% 22% 30% F C D- F F F B- F D+
1.10 59% 100% 35% +9 +2 1.24 28% 0.6 .16 23% .37 74% .27 1.06 58% 33% 19% -8 0 0.87 31% 1.3 .40 14% .24 93% .23
Feb
21		 Western Illinois B B- A+ F D+ 34% 30% 36% F D A+ A+ A+ C A+ F A C+ D+ F C+ F 37% 26% 37% D+ F A F C- C C+ C- C
1.28 67% 54% 25% +3 -1 1.05 50% 1.6 .79 14% .46 64% .29 0.93 56% 45% 31% 0 -1 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .29 67% .19
Feb
24		 Southern Indiana D- F D+ C+ F 51% 26% 23% C- F C- F F A+ A A A+ D- B F B- D- 40% 20% 40% D D- D- D+ D D B C+ B-
1.06 46% 33% 36% -7 0 0.89 31% 0.6 .20 10% .40 82% .33 1.04 45% 50% 30% -5 0 0.92 33% 0.9 .31 15% .27 64% .17
Feb
26		 Arkansas Little Rock B- A F F F+ 48% 15% 37% C+ D- B- A+ A+ B B+ D+ B- D+ F+ D+ A C- 26% 38% 36% B+ C D D D- F F B- F+
1.18 73% 0% 29% -1 +1 1.02 39% 1.5 .58 15% .35 68% .24 1.08 69% 37% 28% -1 -3 0.94 33% 1.1 .36 12% .34 63% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 14.7% 14.7% 15.9 0.8 13.9 85.3
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 15.9 85.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.7% 100.0% 15.9 5.2 94.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 27.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 57.8%