Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -6.2 273
Results Rating -6.0 255
Consistency 0.17 253
Pace 68.9 166
Improvement +6.6 14

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 330 D+ C F D+ B
Defense C 160 B- C D D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 112 C 57% 195 +1.0 139
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 296 F+ 31% 354 -3.5 339
Three Pointers 45% 94 D 31% 295 +0.2 173
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 54 D+ -3.2 293
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 247
Second Chance C- 29.2% 211 C+ 1.05 141 C 0.31 178
Opponents' Steals F 12.8% 360
Other Turnovers F 9.8% 358
Turnovers F 22.6% 364
Freethrows C- 0.30 212 D- 67% 334 D+ 0.20 261
Total Offense D -6.4 330

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 224 C+ 10.0% 121
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 245 D+ 6.6% 284
Three Pointers C- 83% 217 C+ 0.7% 130
Total C 56% 171 C+ 5.3% 152


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 307 B- 54% 71 -4.2 52
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 167 D+ 40% 266 +0.5 233
Three Pointers 45% 52 B- 32% 101 +1.3 252
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 111 B- -2.0 101
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 101
Second Chance C+ 29.5% 158 C- 1.05 220 C 0.31 185
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.2% 275
Other Turnovers D 6.2% 314
Turnovers D 14.5% 318
Freethrows D+ 0.33 279 D+ 74% 285 D+ 0.25 291
Total Defense C +0.2 160

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 97 D+ 8.1% 297
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 185 D+ 3.2% 277
Three Pointers C+ 82% 125 B- 1.4% 73
Total C+ 54% 148 D 4.0% 308

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 132 17.1 138
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 233 0.19 252
Consistency 0.11 77 0.14 303
Improvement +0.8 147 +5.8 7

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 284 275 252
Results Rating Rank 279 274 208
Conference Record 11 - 9 11 - 9 11 - 9
Conference Finish 6 6 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 16% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 6% 16% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four4% 13% 0%
First Round3% 10% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 414 - 715 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 55 @West Virginia L 54 - 70 5% -6  9% 0 - 1 C- -3 F+ -9 F+ A- F B+ +6 B A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 331 Bucknell L 62 - 73 79% -4  9% 0 - 2 F -26 F -14 F F F F -12 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 66 71% +5  79% 1 - 2 C- -4 D- -7 B F F B- +3 A- B+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 37 @Cincinnati L 55 - 72 3% -0  57% 1 - 3 C -0 F -10 C D F A +11 A- A+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 109 @Maryland L 90 - 95 OT 12% -2  27% 1 - 4 C +2 B+ +9 A B+ F D -6 C- B- F+
 Sun, Nov 23 280 @Western Michigan L 60 - 83 40% -8  1% 1 - 5 F -27 F -17 F+ D F F -10 F+ D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 28 @Ohio St. L 60 - 113 2% -25  0% 1 - 6 F -35 F -12 C F C- F -21 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 182 Howard W 79 - 75 44% +5  94% 2 - 6 C -1 B- +4 A C D D+ -4 A D F
 Wed, Dec 3 289 Sacred Heart L 80 - 87 65% -2  25% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F+ -17 C +0 C A- C- F -18 B+ F D
 Fri, Dec 5 202 @Marist L 56 - 64 25% -2  50% 2 - 8 0 - 2 D+ -7 F -15 F C F A- +8 C+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 318 @Loyola Maryland W 81 - 73 52% +5  87% 3 - 8 C +1 D+ -4 B B- F B +5 D- A+ C-
 Fri, Dec 19 214 @Drexel L 67 - 75 28% -7  9% 3 - 9 D+ -8 D- -7 A- D+ F C -1 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 242 Iona W 66 - 59 55% +1  53% 4 - 9 1 - 2 C -1 F -16 D D F A+ +15 A+ C- B
 Fri, Jan 2 174 @Merrimack L 65 - 75 22% -4  8% 4 - 10 1 - 3 D+ -8 F+ -8 F+ F+ F C+ +0 B C- D+
 Sun, Jan 4 216 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 80 28% -6  9% 4 - 11 1 - 4 D -11 D -5 F A+ D+ D -6 F B+ C-
 Fri, Jan 9 230 St. Peter's W 70 - 65 52% +1  55% 5 - 11 2 - 4 C- -2 D -6 F B+ D+ B +4 A- A- C-
 Sun, Jan 11 208 Siena L 50 - 67 47% -5  3% 5 - 12 2 - 5 F -23 F -21 F C F D+ -4 C B F+
 Sat, Jan 17 338 @Canisius W 78 - 68 62% +1  44% 6 - 12 3 - 5 C +1 B- +4 A- C F C- -3 F A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 334 @Niagara W 68 - 58 59% +1  39% 7 - 12 4 - 5 C +1 C- -1 D+ F+ D+ B +4 A+ F B
 Thu, Jan 22 216 Quinnipiac L 62 - 77 50% -12  8% 7 - 13 4 - 6 F -21 F -14 C F F D- -7 F+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 356 Rider W 71 - 61 87% +0  44% 8 - 13 5 - 6 D -8 C- -2 B C F D+ -5 A+ F F+
 Fri, Jan 30 230 @St. Peter's L 58 - 66 30% -1  39% 8 - 14 5 - 7 D -9 F+ -8 D C- F C- -2 C C+ F+
 Sun, Feb 1 324 Manhattan W 72 - 65 76% +4  92% 9 - 14 6 - 7 D+ -7 D- -8 F A+ F C+ +2 B+ F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 174 Merrimack L 70 - 87 42% -10  6% 9 - 15 6 - 8 F -21 D- -8 C D+ C- F -13 F A D+
 Sat, Feb 7 242 @Iona W 83 - 76 33% +3  74% 10 - 15 7 - 8 B- +5 A+ +17 A A- D+ F -11 B- F F
 Fri, Feb 13 356 @Rider W 65 - 55 72% +5  82% 11 - 15 8 - 8 C- -2 F -11 C+ F+ F A +9 A C- F
 Fri, Feb 20 334 Niagara W 76 - 63 79% +7  79% 12 - 15 9 - 8 C -2 D- -6 D+ A F B +5 A C- B
 Sun, Feb 22 338 Canisius W 68 - 47 80% +6  54% 13 - 15 10 - 8 B- +6 D+ -4 F A+ F A+ +12 A F A+
 Fri, Feb 27 289 @Sacred Heart L 69 - 77 43% +0  45% 13 - 16 10 - 9 D- -12 D- -7 F C+ D- D -6 C- D- F
 Sun, Mar 1 265 @Fairfield W 69 - 47 37% +14  97% 14 - 16 11 - 9 A +19 D -5 C B+ F A+ +26 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Mar 7 208 Siena L 67 - 71 36%
Totals 14 - 17 11 - 9 -6 D -6 A D+ B C +0 D D- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C F+ D D+ 41% 28% 45% B D+ C- C+ C F C- D- D+ C B- D+ B- B- 34% 21% 45% C+ B- C+ C- C D D+ D+ D+
0.99 57% 31% 31% -3 +1 0.97 29% 1.1 .31 23% .30 67% .20 1.08 54% 40% 32% -2 0 0.97 30% 1.1 .31 14% .33 74% .22
Nov
4		 West Virginia F+ C- F F F 53% 10% 38% A+ F+ C A+ A- F A+ D A+ B+ C+ D+ A B 43% 16% 41% C B A+ A+ A+ D F B- F
0.80 52% 0% 20% -15 +2 0.78 26% 1.4 .35 30% .40 68% .27 1.04 58% 43% 28% -3 +1 0.98 17% 0.8 .14 13% .60 66% .39
Nov
7		 Bucknell F A- D- F F 40% 7% 52% A F C F F F A+ D+ A+ F D- C+ D- F 42% 17% 42% C- F B- A+ A+ F F A+ D-
0.95 71% 33% 18% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.6 .21 23% .50 72% .36 1.12 64% 33% 36% +3 +1 1.09 23% 0.3 .08 6% .37 65% .24
Nov
11		 St. Francis (PA) D- A+ B A- B+ 29% 15% 56% D+ B F F+ F F C- F F B- C+ C A+ B+ 28% 30% 42% A- A- F A+ B+ D- D D+ D-
1.07 79% 43% 41% +12 0 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 39% .13 0.96 56% 35% 25% -7 -2 0.84 38% 0.5 .19 16% .31 72% .22
Nov
16		 Cincinnati F F F C+ C- 38% 14% 48% A- C D- C+ D F F F F A C+ C- A+ A 37% 19% 44% C- A- C- A+ A+ D+ F A+ F
0.75 42% 29% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 1.1 .21 26% .19 30% .06 0.99 58% 40% 26% -5 0 0.92 34% 0.6 .20 14% .48 60% .29
Nov
19		 Maryland B+ A- F A+ A+ 26% 16% 59% C- A A C B+ F C- D+ D+ D A+ F F C 40% 13% 47% D C- C+ B- B- F+ F F+ F
1.15 67% 11% 47% +10 0 1.21 35% 1.0 .35 24% .27 69% .18 1.21 32% 50% 45% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.0 .34 14% .70 79% .55
Nov
23		 Western Michigan F D+ F D+ F 41% 10% 49% B- F+ F+ B+ D F F A+ D- F C- F B- D- 43% 19% 38% D- F+ B+ F D+ F A- F B-
0.88 57% 0% 32% -6 +2 0.94 21% 1.3 .27 25% .22 82% .18 1.22 56% 64% 32% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.4 .33 9% .23 86% .19
Nov
25		 Ohio St. F A A+ F C- 25% 23% 52% C+ C F+ F F C- C+ F D- F F F F F 22% 28% 50% A- F C+ F F F+ A- F B
0.82 69% 58% 19% -5 -1 0.90 19% 0.4 .07 18% .30 56% .17 1.54 77% 75% 48% +25 -2 1.48 33% 1.6 .52 11% .29 84% .25
Nov
29		 Howard B- B F A+ A+ 51% 14% 35% B- A D B+ C D D A+ C D+ B C A+ A 33% 28% 40% A+ A A F D F C+ B- C+
1.12 64% 14% 47% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.3 .36 21% .29 81% .23 1.06 47% 38% 22% -11 -1 0.78 28% 1.5 .43 8% .32 71% .23
Dec
3		 Sacred Heart C B+ C+ D C- 45% 9% 45% B+ C C- A+ A- C- C- F D+ F B+ F A- B 18% 20% 61% A- B+ F F F D F F F
1.19 68% 40% 32% +3 +2 1.13 30% 1.5 .45 15% .24 64% .16 1.29 50% 44% 30% -4 -1 0.91 44% 1.7 .74 16% .50 86% .42
Dec
5		 Marist F F F F F 47% 11% 42% A+ F B D- C F A- F C A- C B+ C+ C+ 34% 32% 34% B- C+ B F D A+ C- F+ D+
0.78 43% 20% 26% -14 +2 0.78 34% 0.9 .29 29% .42 57% .24 0.89 56% 33% 31% -4 -2 0.91 23% 1.4 .32 27% .25 85% .21
Dec
13		 Loyola Maryland D+ B- A+ C B- 46% 15% 39% B B B- C B- F A+ D A+ B B+ C+ F D- 32% 11% 58% C D- B A+ A+ C- C- C C
1.08 67% 57% 33% +6 +1 1.17 36% 1.2 .43 25% .43 71% .31 0.98 50% 33% 39% +2 +1 1.07 23% 0.4 .09 16% .27 71% .19
Dec
19		 Drexel D- F B A+ A 24% 22% 54% D+ A- C D- D+ F A+ C A+ C D- A+ F F 51% 5% 44% F F A+ F C A+ F F F
0.93 40% 44% 45% +6 -1 1.12 31% 0.9 .28 32% .41 75% .31 1.05 64% 0% 42% +6 +3 1.21 13% 2.0 .26 25% .43 83% .35
Dec
29		 Iona F D A+ F F 62% 8% 30% A+ D F A- D F C- F D A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 28% 17% 55% B- A+ B+ F C- B A F B+
0.89 55% 50% 19% -8 +3 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 21% .26 60% .15 0.79 31% 40% 25% -15 0 0.72 20% 1.3 .27 20% .17 80% .13
Jan
2		 Merrimack F+ D+ A F F 54% 13% 33% A F+ B- F F+ F A+ D- A+ C+ C+ C- A B 36% 12% 52% C+ B B F C- D+ F C+ F
0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +2 0.83 43% 0.8 .32 23% .52 68% .35 1.08 53% 40% 27% -7 +1 0.90 19% 1.3 .26 14% .67 78% .52
Jan
4		 Quinnipiac D D+ F D+ F 28% 20% 52% D F B+ A+ A+ D+ F A F D B F F F 34% 30% 36% B+ F F A+ B+ C- F F F
0.97 53% 9% 32% -9 -1 0.83 39% 1.4 .53 18% .17 80% .14 1.13 50% 57% 41% +7 -1 1.13 41% 0.6 .26 16% .45 78% .35
Jan
9		 St. Peter's D F F D- F 46% 12% 41% B F D+ A+ B+ D+ A+ A- A+ B A+ D A A 27% 16% 58% C- A- D- A+ A- C- F B- F
1.02 42% 20% 29% -12 +2 0.80 33% 1.4 .45 20% .59 81% .48 0.95 33% 43% 27% -12 0 0.78 40% 0.6 .24 18% .51 72% .37
Jan
11		 Siena F F F F F 31% 14% 55% B- F B D- C F A+ C- A+ D+ D- D A C 33% 24% 42% C- C D+ A+ B F+ F A- D-
0.81 46% 17% 22% -17 0 0.69 37% 0.9 .32 24% .43 70% .30 1.09 67% 45% 26% 0 -1 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 13% .37 70% .26
Jan
17		 Canisius B- A A- A+ A+ 32% 28% 40% F+ A- D+ B C F C+ C- C C- C+ C+ F F 25% 20% 55% C+ F A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A
1.16 73% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.23 29% 1.1 .32 22% .33 71% .23 1.01 50% 36% 40% +3 -1 1.05 17% 0.5 .08 15% .12 100% .12
Jan
19		 Niagara C- F A+ B- D- 51% 9% 40% A+ D+ C F F+ D+ A+ F+ A B A+ B A+ A+ 45% 14% 41% D+ A+ F F F B F A- D
1.11 46% 75% 37% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.7 .25 16% .41 71% .29 0.95 25% 33% 22% -23 +1 0.59 42% 1.3 .56 21% .31 67% .21
Jan
22		 Quinnipiac F B+ F C C- 43% 13% 43% B C F F F F A+ C- A D- C A+ F F+ 45% 22% 33% D F+ A+ C A+ F+ C- A+ B-
0.89 65% 0% 35% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.4 .07 23% .39 71% .28 1.10 56% 17% 50% +2 0 1.07 19% 1.0 .19 13% .31 58% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Rider C- C+ D- A+ B- 46% 8% 46% B- B D+ B C F A+ F A+ D+ A+ A B+ A+ 36% 40% 23% B A+ F F F F+ F F F
1.16 61% 33% 44% +8 +2 1.23 30% 1.1 .33 20% .47 61% .29 1.00 29% 26% 27% -17 -3 0.62 41% 1.1 .46 13% .36 79% .28
Jan
30		 St. Peter's F+ A- F F D- 38% 15% 46% C D B+ F C- F C+ F D C- C+ A+ D- C 33% 24% 43% C+ C D+ B C+ F+ D C+ D
0.94 67% 0% 28% -7 +1 0.90 42% 0.8 .35 26% .42 63% .26 1.07 53% 17% 36% -5 -1 0.90 38% 0.9 .33 15% .36 74% .27
Feb
1		 Manhattan D- F F F F 40% 21% 38% C- F C+ A+ A+ F C+ A+ A C+ B+ F A+ A- 25% 17% 58% C B+ C F F D- A- D- B+
1.10 47% 30% 28% -10 0 0.83 39% 1.6 .64 20% .27 93% .25 0.99 46% 56% 23% -9 -1 0.83 26% 1.5 .39 12% .23 85% .19
Feb
5		 Merrimack D- F B- A D+ 52% 15% 33% A- C D- C+ D+ C- A+ F B F F F F F 30% 10% 60% C+ F A+ C A D+ F+ D- F
0.99 42% 43% 40% -5 +2 0.96 35% 1.1 .38 20% .51 55% .28 1.23 67% 60% 40% +10 +1 1.24 13% 1.0 .13 14% .41 84% .35
Feb
7		 Iona A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 27% 12% 61% C A B+ B+ A- D+ A+ B- A+ F C+ F A- B- 19% 15% 66% B B- F D- F F F C- F
1.31 91% 60% 32% +10 0 1.22 39% 1.1 .43 17% .57 73% .42 1.20 56% 57% 29% -3 -1 0.96 32% 1.2 .38 6% .40 71% .29
Feb
13		 Rider F A F D C 46% 2% 52% B+ C+ D+ F F+ F F F F A A B- A+ A 33% 41% 25% B+ A A- F C- F D+ B+ C-
1.00 71% 0% 33% +5 +3 1.17 31% 0.8 .23 28% .17 63% .11 0.85 41% 33% 15% -15 -3 0.67 24% 1.2 .29 11% .29 65% .19
Feb
20		 Niagara D- C+ F D- D- 62% 12% 26% A+ D+ B- A+ A F C F D- B B F A+ A 27% 22% 51% A+ A D B C- B F F+ F
1.09 61% 17% 31% -2 +3 1.04 37% 1.4 .50 21% .29 63% .18 0.90 50% 50% 22% -9 -1 0.82 26% 0.8 .20 21% .51 79% .40
Feb
22		 Canisius D+ D+ F F+ F 44% 13% 44% B F B- A+ A+ F D+ A- C A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ 20% 37% 44% A+ A B F F A+ D+ F D-
1.09 57% 0% 29% -9 +1 0.88 34% 1.5 .53 21% .28 79% .22 0.75 38% 40% 22% -11 -3 0.73 23% 1.6 .35 27% .31 79% .24
Feb
27		 Sacred Heart D- D A+ F F 37% 6% 57% B F A+ F C+ D- D F F+ D A+ A+ F+ C- 26% 9% 65% D C- F C D- F D+ C+ C-
1.05 55% 67% 23% -9 +2 0.87 45% 0.8 .36 17% .22 58% .13 1.17 43% 20% 40% 0 +1 1.04 33% 1.0 .33 14% .30 76% .23
Mar
1		 Fairfield D B F D C 52% 8% 40% B+ C D+ A+ B+ F F F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 27% 38% B A+ C+ B B- A+ F C F
1.03 64% 25% 32% +1 +3 1.08 28% 1.5 .41 25% .20 50% .10 0.70 19% 25% 18% -27 -1 0.47 33% 0.9 .28 22% .44 70% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 100.0% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.1 5.5 94.4
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 16.0 94.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.6% 100.0% 16.0 1.8 98.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.2%
Lose Out 64.7%