New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.1 177
Results Rating -3.1 220
Consistency 0.18 306
Pace 66.6 234
Improvement -5.7 351

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 141 D+ C B D+ D-
Defense C- 225 B- D D+ F+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 329 C 58% 185 -3.6 306
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 72 C 38% 196 +2.7 50
Three Pointers 40% 213 C- 33% 229 -1.3 228
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.3 330 C- -1.0 213
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 248
Second Chance C+ 32.4% 110 D+ 0.96 289 C 0.31 167
Opponents' Steals B 8.0% 55
Other Turnovers B- 6.3% 65
Turnovers B 14.4% 45
Freethrows D+ 0.27 275 C 73% 186 D+ 0.20 264
Total Offense C +0.8 141

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 53% 106 B- 9.3% 87
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 259 C+ 4.1% 123
Three Pointers D 77% 317 C+ 0.8% 147
Total C- 52% 251 B 4.5% 55


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 306 C 59% 199 -2.5 94
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 132 B 35% 70 -0.2 172
Three Pointers 44% 82 B- 32% 96 +0.6 210
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 89 C+ -1.6 115
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 113
Second Chance C 30.7% 206 D- 1.17 345 D 0.36 297
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.6% 243
Other Turnovers D 6.3% 303
Turnovers D+ 14.9% 286
Freethrows D- 0.37 339 F+ 76% 350 F+ 0.28 353
Total Defense C- -1.9 225

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 45% 115 C+ 12.2% 122
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A- 12% 4 C 5.1% 155
Three Pointers C- 86% 241 C+ 1.3% 91
Total C+ 53% 124 C 5.8% 159

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 221 17.6 249
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 111 0.20 279
Consistency 0.15 339 0.13 274
Improvement -2.4 298 -3.4 328

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 205 180 157
Results Rating Rank 250 211 176
Conference Record 6 - 14 7 - 13 8 - 12
Conference Finish 11 9 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 16.0
.500 or above 2% 2% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 15% 4% 34%
First Four1% 1% 2%
First Round3% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 96 - 11
Quad 46 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 53 New Mexico W 76 - 68 21% +2  70% 1 - 0 A- +16 A- +10 D+ A+ A+ B+ +6 A+ D- A
 Fri, Nov 21 191 Samford W 81 - 72 65% +10  92% 2 - 0 C+ +4 A +12 A- A A- D- -7 A- F F
 Tue, Nov 25 123 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 35% +5  93% 3 - 0 A- +15 F -11 F B F A+ +26 A+ A A+
 Wed, Nov 26 304 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 76% +9  73% 4 - 0 B +10 D -5 D D- A A+ +14 B+ A- C+
 Tue, Dec 2 187 South Alabama L 75 - 77 53% +1  59% 4 - 1 C- -4 B- +4 C C- D D- -8 B+ F+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 236 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 50% -5  13% 4 - 2 D -9 C+ +3 D- C- A- F -13 F F C
 Sat, Dec 13 64 Tulsa L 70 - 83 17% -13  1% 4 - 3 C- -4 D -5 F+ D C C+ +1 D+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 107 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 42% +13  96% 5 - 3 1 - 0 B +10 B +6 A D+ A+ B +4 A B C-
 Fri, Jan 2 200 @Florida International L 74 - 89 43% -11  8% 5 - 4 1 - 1 D- -14 C- -2 B+ F C- F -12 D- F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 205 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 44% -8  1% 5 - 5 1 - 2 D+ -6 B- +5 B- C C F -12 D F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 131 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 50% +16  99% 6 - 5 2 - 2 A- +15 A- +10 C- A B- B+ +6 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 163 Middle Tennessee L 55 - 59 59% -0  43% 6 - 6 2 - 3 D+ -7 F -18 F F D+ A +10 A+ A D
 Thu, Jan 15 115 @Liberty L 71 - 73 24% -6  7% 6 - 7 2 - 4 C+ +4 A- +10 C+ B- A+ D -6 D+ C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 275 @Delaware W 97 - 68 58% +14  98% 7 - 7 3 - 4 A+ +26 A+ +32 A+ A+ A+ C- -2 B- D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 205 Missouri St. L 75 - 84 66% -5  28% 7 - 8 3 - 5 D- -14 C+ +3 F B- A+ F -18 F A- C
 Sat, Jan 24 200 Florida International L 78 - 81 65% -4  21% 7 - 9 3 - 6 D+ -8 D -5 F D C+ C- -3 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 275 Delaware L 64 - 73 78% -5  15% 7 - 10 3 - 7 F -18 D- -6 C+ F+ D- F -14 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 159 @Kennesaw St. L 53 - 76 34% -15  17% 7 - 11 3 - 8 F -20 F -19 F F D+ C- -2 B- F F
 Wed, Feb 4 221 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 63 48% +2  76% 8 - 11 4 - 8 B +8 B+ +8 A+ D+ C- C+ +2 C+ D+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 260 @UTEP L 88 - 91 OT 56% +5  77% 8 - 12 4 - 9 D+ -6 C +1 C- D+ A+ D -6 B F C
 Wed, Feb 11 115 Liberty L 75 - 77 45% -1  28% 8 - 13 4 - 10 C- -2 C- -1 C- B B+ C -1 A+ F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 192 @Jacksonville St. W 79 - 70 42% +5  86% 9 - 13 5 - 10 B +10 A- +10 D+ A A C+ +1 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 260 UTEP W 67 - 63 76% +3  70% 10 - 13 6 - 10 C- -5 C+ +3 D- C- A+ D -6 B+ D- F
 Thu, Feb 26 131 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 93 28% -21  0% 10 - 14 6 - 11 F -18 F+ -10 F D+ B- D -6 F A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 28 163 @Middle Tennessee L 85 - 86 OT 36% +3  54% 10 - 15 6 - 12 C +2 B- +5 C- B- A C- -3 C- F A-
 Thu, Mar 5 192 Jacksonville St. W 73 - 69 64%
 Sat, Mar 7 159 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 79 57%
Totals 11 - 16 7 - 13 -1 C +1 D C- D- C- -2 C- C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C C C- C- 33% 48% 40% D- D+ C+ D+ C B D+ C D+ C- C B B- C+ 34% 22% 44% B- B- C D- D D+ D- F+ F+
1.10 58% 38% 33% -1 -1 0.97 32% 1.0 .31 14% .27 73% .20 1.11 59% 35% 32% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.2 .36 15% .37 76% .21
Nov
15		 New Mexico A- A+ F+ F C- 17% 25% 58% D- D+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B+ C- A A+ A+ 31% 15% 54% B+ A+ B- F D- A C- F D
1.16 88% 33% 25% -4 -2 0.90 31% 1.3 .41 12% .45 77% .35 1.03 60% 29% 27% -7 0 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 20% .32 82% .27
Nov
21		 Samford A A- C+ A+ A 36% 34% 30% D+ A- B+ A A A- C C C D- D+ D+ A+ A 27% 20% 53% C+ A- D+ F F F C F D+
1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21 1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27
Nov
25		 UC Irvine F C- A- F F+ 29% 37% 34% F F A- C B F A+ C- A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ 27% 34% 39% A A+ A+ D- A A+ F B- F
0.82 50% 47% 7% -13 -3 0.71 41% 0.9 .38 30% .55 70% .39 0.64 55% 21% 13% -19 -3 0.59 17% 1.2 .20 26% .56 66% .37
Nov
26		 Georgia St. D D- F A+ D+ 38% 29% 33% D- D B F D- A F C- F A+ D A+ A A 27% 22% 51% D B+ C+ A+ A- C+ A B- A+
1.04 50% 29% 42% -2 -1 0.97 39% 0.7 .26 12% .21 71% .15 0.78 60% 8% 25% -13 -1 0.75 26% 0.7 .19 18% .20 75% .15
Dec
2		 South Alabama B- B- A+ F C+ 20% 19% 61% D- C A+ F C- D C+ B- B- D- B+ A+ C- B+ 49% 22% 29% C B+ B+ F F+ D F F F
1.13 64% 80% 24% 0 -1 1.00 45% 0.7 .33 20% .24 77% .19 1.16 50% 22% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 2.0 .36 11% .66 82% .54
Dec
6		 Abilene Christian C+ F B B+ D- 41% 19% 41% D+ D- A+ F C- A- A+ B+ A+ F C+ F F F 36% 26% 38% B- F F D F C F F F
1.09 47% 43% 40% 0 0 1.03 42% 0.6 .26 19% .68 77% .53 1.22 53% 45% 50% +9 -1 1.19 41% 1.0 .41 21% .46 83% .38
Dec
13		 Tulsa D F F+ C- F 43% 22% 35% C F+ D C D C A+ D+ A+ C+ C B F D- 29% 7% 63% B D+ C F F A+ F D F
1.00 45% 27% 33% -8 0 0.86 21% 1.1 .24 16% .44 69% .31 1.19 58% 33% 42% +8 +1 1.20 32% 1.6 .52 23% .65 83% .54
Dec
21		 Sam Houston St. B C A+ B+ A+ 41% 23% 36% C A F+ A D+ A+ F C+ F B A+ F B- A+ 38% 14% 48% D+ A D+ A B C- F B- F
1.17 60% 64% 36% +8 0 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .16 73% .12 1.05 33% 50% 33% -8 +1 0.88 38% 0.8 .31 16% .42 69% .29
Jan
2		 Florida International C- B A+ B+ A- 31% 18% 51% D+ B+ F C F C- F F+ F F F A+ F F+ 40% 25% 35% B D- F F F C+ F D F
1.04 63% 56% 38% +8 0 1.18 20% 1.0 .20 21% .21 67% .14 1.25 68% 25% 41% +5 0 1.10 41% 1.5 .62 18% .45 73% .33
Jan
4		 Missouri St. B- A+ F+ A+ B 25% 45% 29% F B- A- F C C B- A A- F F A+ F F 22% 39% 39% A+ D F F F C+ F F F
1.15 85% 30% 47% +9 -4 1.12 39% 0.8 .33 17% .39 83% .32 1.25 80% 17% 50% +6 -4 1.07 39% 1.4 .56 18% .67 74% .50
Jan
8		 Western Kentucky A- F C- A+ C 28% 28% 43% D C- A+ C A B- A+ A- A+ B+ A+ C- A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% A A+ D- F F F D- C+ D
1.21 31% 38% 45% 0 -2 0.98 44% 0.9 .41 17% .62 76% .47 0.97 15% 38% 22% -22 -1 0.56 36% 1.2 .44 8% .38 74% .28
Jan
10		 Middle Tennessee F D+ C- F F 27% 23% 50% D- F D- F F D+ A F C A D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 23% 38% C- A+ A+ D+ A D F B+ F
0.85 54% 36% 25% -8 -1 0.83 20% 0.8 .15 17% .41 59% .24 0.91 67% 18% 22% -8 0 0.85 17% 1.0 .17 14% .43 63% .27
Jan
15		 Liberty A- B- D+ A+ B+ 19% 37% 44% F C+ C+ C+ B- A+ F F F D D+ B F D+ 52% 14% 34% B- D+ D+ A C+ D- F F F
1.22 60% 37% 43% +6 -3 1.08 33% 1.3 .42 12% .08 50% .04 1.25 65% 33% 47% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 10% .34 78% .27
Jan
17		 Delaware A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 27% 30% 43% D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D C- A+ A+ F B 39% 17% 43% D+ B- C+ F D- F F+ B+ D
1.57 80% 41% 46% +14 -2 1.27 33% 2.0 .67 6% .19 100% .19 1.10 44% 25% 45% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.3 .25 10% .32 72% .23
Jan
22		 Missouri St. C+ B D- F F 19% 41% 41% F F C- A+ B- A+ D+ C+ C- F F F F+ F 32% 27% 41% C+ F F A+ A- C F F F
1.16 70% 32% 27% -4 -4 0.85 29% 1.4 .39 8% .34 75% .25 1.30 79% 58% 39% +15 -1 1.30 43% 0.6 .27 17% .50 81% .41
Jan
24		 Florida International D F F C+ F 30% 28% 43% F F A- F D C+ A+ F+ A C- C- F A+ C+ 39% 19% 42% C C+ A+ C+ A+ F F C+ F+
1.03 44% 27% 35% -7 -2 0.85 43% 0.7 .29 20% .45 67% .30 1.07 59% 55% 25% -2 0 0.98 20% 1.0 .20 8% .40 68% .27
Jan
28		 Delaware D- D+ B+ A- B 18% 32% 50% F C+ B- F F+ D- F F+ F F F F F F 34% 23% 43% C+ F C+ A+ B+ C- D- F F
1.07 56% 44% 40% +6 -3 1.08 34% 0.6 .20 17% .16 75% .12 1.22 80% 50% 42% +15 -1 1.32 19% 0.5 .10 17% .30 100% .30
Jan
31		 Kennesaw St. F F C- F F 26% 41% 33% F F D+ F F D+ A+ C+ A+ C- F A A- C+ 33% 19% 49% A- B- C+ F F F F C- F
0.79 30% 38% 15% -17 -4 0.62 26% 0.6 .16 18% .64 77% .49 1.14 71% 25% 29% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.4 .47 12% .61 69% .42
Feb
4		 Louisiana Tech B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 42% 22% 36% C- A+ B- F D+ C- D+ F+ D C+ F+ A+ D C 31% 24% 44% B C+ F A- D+ B- F A F
1.13 58% 50% 44% +8 0 1.18 37% 0.8 .30 19% .29 67% .19 0.99 64% 9% 35% -4 -1 0.91 48% 0.6 .30 20% .50 56% .28
Feb
7		 UTEP C F+ D- A+ C- 38% 29% 33% D+ C- D+ C- D+ A+ D F F D D+ A+ B B+ 23% 26% 51% C B F F F C F C F
1.08 50% 33% 43% 0 -1 1.00 30% 1.0 .30 12% .32 61% .20 1.12 62% 20% 31% -6 -2 0.86 38% 1.3 .49 17% .56 68% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 Liberty C- A C+ F C- 34% 21% 45% C- C- C- A+ B B+ F A+ F+ C A- F A- A+ 42% 7% 51% B- A+ F F F D- A+ F B+
1.11 68% 42% 28% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.5 .45 15% .12 100% .12 1.14 52% 75% 30% -3 +2 1.00 25% 1.7 .42 10% .15 89% .13
Feb
14		 Jacksonville St. A- C F D+ D 42% 9% 49% B D+ C A+ A A A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ 43% 16% 41% B- A+ B+ F F+ F B C B
1.20 58% 0% 32% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.6 .44 12% .54 84% .45 1.06 40% 22% 29% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.6 .37 5% .30 68% .21
Feb
21		 UTEP C+ C- D- C- D 26% 34% 40% F D- B- D C- A+ F C- F D D+ D- A+ A- 27% 25% 48% C- B+ D D- D- F C+ F D+
1.15 57% 33% 33% -2 -3 0.92 36% 0.9 .33 7% .13 71% .09 1.08 62% 42% 22% -7 -1 0.85 29% 1.1 .32 10% .25 85% .21
Feb
26		 Western Kentucky F+ C+ F F F 27% 23% 50% D+ F D C- D+ B- A+ B A+ D D F+ F F 42% 15% 42% D+ F A+ A+ A+ D- F B F
0.89 60% 31% 18% -13 -1 0.73 23% 0.9 .21 16% .52 74% .38 1.18 60% 44% 44% +8 +1 1.20 11% 0.3 .03 11% .44 71% .31
Feb
28		 Middle Tennessee B- C+ A- D C+ 27% 35% 37% F C- B+ D+ B- A F C- F C- C- F C+ D 25% 33% 41% A C- D+ F F A- F F F
1.13 59% 45% 30% +1 -3 0.98 33% 1.0 .33 11% .24 75% .18 1.14 62% 53% 33% +5 -3 1.08 33% 1.5 .50 20% .45 78% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 2.6 20.6 23.2 8th
9th 15.0 14.3 29.3 9th
10th 5.1 23.9 2.6 31.6 10th
11th 9.6 5.0 14.5 11th
12th 1.5 1.5 12th
Total 16.1 46.5 37.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 37.4% 4.2% 4.2% 15.2 1.2 0.3 35.9
7-13 46.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4 45.0
6-14 16.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 15.8
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.6 96.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 15.2 78.8 21.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.9%
Lose Out 8.3%