New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.5 167
Expected Predictive Rating -3.6 227
Pace 65.8 256
Improvement -5.4 352

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #138 C- C B- D+ D-
Defense C- #224 B- D+ D+ F B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 319 58% 177 -3.3 292
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 42 39% 149 +3.2 40
Three Pointers 39% 227 34% 155 -0.8 206
1st FG Attempt 1.00 202 -0.8 199
Second Chance 32.5% 119 0.94 294 0.31 190
Turnovers 15.1% 71
Freethrows 0.28 263 72% 194 0.20 249
Total Offense +1.0 138

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 310 59% 212 +2.6 95
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 110 33% 22 +0.5 143
Three Pointers 44% 85 33% 117 -0.8 223
1st FG Attempt 0.97 102 +2.3 102
Second Chance 31.6% 230 1.14 319 0.36 298
Turnovers 15.7% 250
Freethrows 0.38 342 77% 352 0.29 355
Total Defense -1.5 224

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.4 327 -0.6 81
Shot Type Accuracy +0.5 154 -1.7 110
Possession Length 17.7 220 17.7 253
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 133 0.19 233
Improvement -1.9 #294 -3.5 #333

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.9 15.6
.500 or above 7% 13% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 3% 7% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 16% 7% 23%
First Four1% 1% 2%
First Round4% 5% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Away) - 42.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 86 - 11
Quad 46 - 612 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 49 New Mexico W 76 - 68 21% +2  70% 1 - 0 A- +16 A- +10 C- A A+ B+ +7 A+ D A
 Fri, Nov 21 194 Samford W 81 - 72 68% +10  92% 2 - 0 C+ +4 A +11 A- A B+ D -6 A- F F
 Tue, Nov 25 119 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 37% +5  93% 3 - 0 A- +15 F -12 F B+ F A+ +27 A+ A A+
 Wed, Nov 26 276 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 72% +9  73% 4 - 0 B+ +13 D -4 D+ D A A+ +16 B+ A- C+
 Tue, Dec 2 191 South Alabama L 75 - 77 56% +1  59% 4 - 1 C- -4 B- +5 C C- D D- -9 B D- D-
 Sat, Dec 6 260 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 58% -5  13% 4 - 2 D -11 C+ +2 D D B+ F -14 F F C
 Sat, Dec 13 70 Tulsa L 70 - 83 21% -13  1% 4 - 3 D+ -5 D -5 F+ D+ C C +0 D+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 121 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 49% +13  96% 5 - 3 1 - 0 B +9 B +6 A D+ A+ B- +2 A B- C-
 Fri, Jan 2 188 @Florida International L 74 - 89 44% -11  8% 5 - 4 1 - 1 D- -14 C- -2 A- F D+ F -12 D F B-
 Sun, Jan 4 179 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 41% -8  1% 5 - 5 1 - 2 D+ -5 B +6 B- C- C+ F -11 D+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 160 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 61% +16  99% 6 - 5 2 - 2 B+ +13 A- +10 D+ A+ B- B- +4 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 173 Middle Tennessee L 55 - 59 63% -0  43% 6 - 6 2 - 3 D+ -8 F -17 F+ F+ D+ A- +9 A+ A- D
 Thu, Jan 15 95 @Liberty L 71 - 73 20% -6  7% 6 - 7 2 - 4 B- +6 A- +11 B- B- A+ D+ -5 D+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 279 @Delaware W 97 - 68 63% +14  98% 7 - 7 3 - 4 A+ +25 A+ +33 A+ A+ A+ D+ -4 B- D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 179 Missouri St. L 75 - 84 64% -5  28% 7 - 8 3 - 5 D- -13 B- +4 F B- A+ F -18 F A- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 188 Florida International L 78 - 81 67% -4  21% 7 - 9 3 - 6 D+ -8 D -6 F D C C- -2 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 279 Delaware L 64 - 73 81% -5  15% 7 - 10 3 - 7 F -19 D -5 C+ D- D F -15 F B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 154 @Kennesaw St. L 53 - 76 36% -15  17% 7 - 11 3 - 8 F -20 F -19 F F D C- -2 C F F
 Wed, Feb 4 223 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 63 49% +2  76% 8 - 11 4 - 8 B +9 B +7 A+ D+ D+ B- +3 C- C- B
 Sat, Feb 7 239 @UTEP L 88 - 91 OT 53% +5  77% 8 - 12 4 - 9 C- -4 C +1 C- D+ A+ D+ -5 B F C
 Wed, Feb 11 95 Liberty L 75 - 77 39% -1  28% 8 - 13 4 - 10 C +0 C +1 C B B+ C -0 A+ F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 184 @Jacksonville St. L 68 - 70 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 239 UTEP W 73 - 66 74%
 Thu, Feb 26 160 @Western Kentucky L 73 - 76 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 173 @Middle Tennessee L 70 - 73 40%
 Thu, Mar 5 184 Jacksonville St. W 71 - 67 64%
 Sat, Mar 7 154 Kennesaw St. W 79 - 77 59%
Totals 11 - 16 7 - 13 +0 C+ +1 C- C B- C- -2 B- D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C C+ C 33% 28% 39% D- C- C+ D+ C B- D+ C D+ C- C- B+ C+ C+ 33% 22% 44% B- B- C- D D+ D+ F+ F+ F
1.10 58% 39% 34% +1 -1 1.00 33% 0.9 .31 15% .28 72% .20 1.11 59% 33% 33% -2 -1 0.97 32% 1.1 .36 16% .38 77% .21
Nov
15		 New Mexico A- A+ D- F C- 17% 25% 58% D C- B A+ A A+ A+ B A+ B+ C- A A+ A+ 31% 15% 54% B+ A+ B- F D A C- F+ D
1.16 88% 33% 25% -4 -2 0.90 31% 1.3 .41 12% .45 77% .35 1.03 60% 29% 27% -6 0 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 20% .32 82% .27
Nov
21		 Samford A A- C A+ A 36% 34% 30% D+ A- B A A B+ C C C- D D+ C- A+ A- 27% 20% 53% C+ A- D+ F F F C F D
1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21 1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27
Nov
25		 UC Irvine F C- A- F F 29% 37% 34% F F A- B- B+ F A+ C- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 34% 39% A A+ A+ D A A+ F B- F
0.82 50% 47% 7% -13 -3 0.71 41% 0.9 .38 30% .55 70% .39 0.64 55% 21% 13% -19 -3 0.59 17% 1.2 .20 26% .56 66% .37
Nov
26		 Georgia St. D D- F+ A+ C- 38% 29% 33% F+ D+ B+ F D A F C F+ A+ D A+ A A- 27% 22% 51% D+ B+ C+ A+ A- C+ A+ B A+
1.04 50% 29% 42% -2 -1 0.97 39% 0.7 .26 12% .21 71% .15 0.78 60% 8% 25% -13 -1 0.75 26% 0.7 .19 18% .20 75% .15
Dec
2		 South Alabama B- C+ A+ F C+ 20% 19% 61% D- C A+ F C- D B B- B+ D- B A+ C- B 49% 22% 29% C+ B B+ F D- D- F F F
1.13 64% 80% 24% 0 -1 1.00 45% 0.7 .33 20% .24 77% .19 1.16 50% 22% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 2.0 .36 11% .66 82% .54
Dec
6		 Abilene Christian C+ F B+ B+ D 41% 19% 41% D+ D A+ F D B+ A+ B A+ F C+ F+ F F 36% 26% 38% C+ F F D F C F F F
1.09 47% 43% 40% 0 0 1.03 42% 0.6 .26 19% .68 77% .53 1.22 53% 45% 50% +9 -1 1.19 41% 1.0 .41 21% .46 83% .38
Dec
13		 Tulsa D F F+ C- F+ 43% 22% 35% C F+ D C D+ C A+ D A+ C C B F D- 29% 7% 63% B D+ C F F A+ F D+ F
1.00 45% 27% 33% -8 0 0.86 21% 1.1 .24 16% .44 69% .31 1.19 58% 33% 42% +8 +1 1.20 32% 1.6 .52 23% .65 83% .54
Dec
21		 Sam Houston St. B C A+ B A 41% 23% 36% C A F A D+ A+ F B- F B- A+ F C+ A+ 38% 14% 48% D+ A D+ A- B- C- F C+ F
1.17 60% 64% 36% +8 0 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .16 73% .12 1.05 33% 50% 33% -8 +1 0.88 38% 0.8 .31 16% .42 69% .29
Jan
2		 Florida International C- B A+ A- A 31% 18% 51% D+ A- F C- F D+ F D- F F F A+ F D- 40% 25% 35% B+ D F F F B- F D- F
1.04 63% 56% 38% +8 0 1.18 20% 1.0 .20 21% .21 67% .14 1.25 68% 25% 41% +5 0 1.10 41% 1.5 .62 18% .45 73% .33
Jan
4		 Missouri St. B A+ F+ A+ B+ 25% 45% 29% F B- B+ F C- C+ B- A+ A- F F A+ F F+ 22% 39% 39% A+ D+ F+ F F C+ F F F
1.15 85% 30% 47% +9 -4 1.12 39% 0.8 .33 17% .39 83% .32 1.25 80% 17% 50% +6 -4 1.07 39% 1.4 .56 18% .67 74% .50
Jan
8		 Western Kentucky A- F C- A+ C- 28% 28% 43% D D+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ A- A+ B- A+ C- A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% A- A+ D+ F F F F C F+
1.21 31% 38% 45% 0 -2 0.98 44% 0.9 .41 17% .62 76% .47 0.97 15% 38% 22% -22 -1 0.56 36% 1.2 .44 8% .38 74% .28
Jan
10		 Middle Tennessee F D+ C F F+ 27% 23% 50% D- F+ D- F F+ D+ A F C A- D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 23% 38% C- A+ A+ D A- D F B- F
0.85 54% 36% 25% -8 -1 0.83 20% 0.8 .15 17% .41 59% .24 0.91 67% 18% 22% -8 0 0.85 17% 1.0 .17 14% .43 63% .27
Jan
15		 Liberty A- B- D+ A+ A- 19% 37% 44% F B- C+ B- B- A+ F F F D+ D+ B F D 52% 14% 34% B- D+ C A B- D- F F F
1.22 60% 37% 43% +6 -3 1.08 33% 1.3 .42 12% .08 50% .04 1.25 65% 33% 47% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 10% .34 78% .27
Jan
17		 Delaware A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 27% 30% 43% D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D D+ A A+ F B- 39% 17% 43% D+ B- C+ F D- F F B- F+
1.57 80% 41% 46% +15 -2 1.27 33% 2.0 .67 6% .19 100% .19 1.10 44% 25% 45% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.3 .25 10% .32 72% .23
Jan
22		 Missouri St. B- B+ D- F F 19% 41% 41% F F D+ A+ B- A+ D+ C+ C- F F F F+ F 32% 27% 41% C+ F F A+ A- C- F F F
1.16 70% 32% 27% -4 -4 0.85 29% 1.4 .39 8% .34 75% .25 1.30 79% 58% 39% +15 -1 1.30 43% 0.6 .27 17% .50 81% .41
Jan
24		 Florida International D F F C+ F+ 30% 28% 43% F F A- F D C A+ D- A C- C- F A+ C+ 39% 19% 42% C+ C+ A+ C+ A+ F F C F+
1.03 44% 27% 35% -7 -2 0.85 43% 0.7 .29 20% .45 67% .30 1.07 59% 55% 25% -2 0 0.98 20% 1.0 .20 8% .40 68% .27
Jan
28		 Delaware D D+ B A- B 18% 32% 50% F C+ B F D- D F D- F F F F F F 34% 23% 43% B- F C+ A+ B+ D+ D- F F
1.07 56% 44% 40% +6 -3 1.08 34% 0.6 .20 17% .16 75% .12 1.22 80% 50% 42% +16 -1 1.32 19% 0.5 .10 17% .30 100% .30
Jan
31		 Kennesaw St. F F C F F 26% 41% 33% F F D+ F F D A+ B- A+ C- F A B+ C- 33% 19% 49% A- C C+ F F F F C F
0.79 30% 38% 15% -17 -4 0.62 26% 0.6 .16 18% .64 77% .49 1.14 71% 25% 29% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.4 .47 12% .61 69% .42
Feb
4		 Louisiana Tech B B- A+ A+ A+ 42% 22% 36% C- A+ B F D+ D+ D F+ D- B- F+ A+ D D+ 31% 24% 44% B+ C- F A C- B F A F
1.13 58% 50% 44% +8 0 1.18 37% 0.8 .30 19% .29 67% .19 0.99 64% 9% 35% -4 -1 0.91 48% 0.6 .30 20% .50 56% .28
Feb
7		 UTEP C D- D- A+ C- 38% 29% 33% D+ C- D C- D+ A+ D F F D+ C- A+ B B+ 23% 26% 51% C B F F F C F C F
1.08 50% 33% 43% 0 -1 1.00 30% 1.0 .30 12% .32 61% .20 1.12 62% 20% 31% -6 -2 0.86 38% 1.3 .49 17% .56 68% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 Liberty C A C+ F C 34% 21% 45% C- C C- A+ B B+ F A+ D- C A- F A- A+ 42% 7% 51% B- A+ F+ F F D- A+ F B
1.11 68% 42% 28% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.5 .45 15% .12 100% .12 1.14 52% 75% 30% -3 +2 1.00 25% 1.7 .42 10% .15 89% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 0.9 4th
5th 0.9 1.3 2.2 5th
6th 0.3 3.7 0.5 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 2.5 5.3 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.8 9.3 2.2 12.3 8th
9th 0.3 6.7 10.2 0.2 17.5 9th
10th 0.2 4.4 13.9 3.1 21.7 10th
11th 0.5 4.9 14.1 8.0 0.3 27.7 11th
12th 0.8 2.8 1.7 0.2 5.4 12th
Total 1.3 7.9 20.5 29.6 25.7 12.3 2.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 2.8% 11.1% 11.1% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.5
9-11 12.3% 5.7% 5.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 11.6
8-12 25.7% 5.2% 5.2% 15.2 0.0 1.0 0.3 24.4
7-13 29.6% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.1 1.0 28.5
6-14 20.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7 19.8
5-15 7.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 7.7
4-16 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.3 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.2 16.1 48.4 35.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.8%