Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.6 #245
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #263
Pace 72.8 #78
Improvement -0.9 #236

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #284 D+ B- C D+ C+
Defense #187 D+ D C+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #59 1.06 #294 +0.5 #154
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #185 0.80 #110 +0.3 #157
Three Pointers 37% #271 0.92 #297 -4.0 #311
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #264 -3.1 #265
Freethrows 17.6 #199 66% #346 11.6 #259
Second Chance 28.0% #255 1.31 #4 0.37 #86
Turnovers 16.1% #152
Total Offense -4.0 #284

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #59 1.17 #195 -3.0 #280
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #212 0.86 #317 -0.5 #213
Three Pointers 38% #275 1.06 #236 +0.9 #142
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #262 -2.6 #262
Freethrows 24.0 #362 76% #339 18.3 #363
Second Chance 29.8% #144 1.23 #352 0.37 #292
Turnovers 17.4% #115
Total Defense -0.6 #187

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #135 1.0% #262
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.8% #290 3.9% #253
Possession Length 17.1 #143 17.1 #146
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #242 0.20 #269
Improvement -2.4 #305 +1.4 #97

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 13.1% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 52.3% 61.1% 29.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.7% 92.6% 71.3%
Conference Champion 4.7% 6.1% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.6% 3.5% 3.8%
First Round10.1% 11.7% 5.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Away) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 413 - 914 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 28 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 3% -10  0 - 1 -7 -3 D+ F A -2 B C A-
 Fri, Nov 7 50 @Missouri L 84 - 89 5% -2  0 - 2 +9 +8 A+ C- F +1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 131 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 37% -13  0 - 3 -13 -8 F B C+ -4 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 23 @Iowa L 70 - 99 2% -19  0 - 4 -10 +9 B A+ F -19 F F C
 Tue, Nov 25 281 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 58% +3  1 - 4 +9 +2 C- C+ C +6 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 315 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 57% -7  1 - 5 -13 -5 F C A+ -9 C- F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 174 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 48% -4  1 - 6 -15 -7 F D F -7 F B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 247 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 39% -1  2 - 6 +2 +4 C B- D -2 F F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 342 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 65% -2  2 - 7 0 - 1 -20 -5 F A- F -15 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 20 241 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 38% +10  3 - 7 1 - 1 +8 +9 A+ A+ F -3 C A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 310 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 75% -2  4 - 7 2 - 1 -3 -6 F A+ B +3 D- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 356 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 87% +9  5 - 7 3 - 1 +6 -0 D+ A+ F +8 A- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 329 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 61% +5  6 - 7 4 - 1 +0 +11 A+ F B -11 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 302 @Morehead St. L 69 - 71 52% +4  6 - 8 4 - 2 -7 +3 F C- A+ -11 F B- A-
 Thu, Jan 15 237 Lindenwood L 76 - 88 60% -17  6 - 9 4 - 3 -19 -9 F A- D+ -9 D F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 257 SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 68 63% -16  6 - 10 4 - 4 -21 -13 F F F -9 F D C
 Tue, Jan 20 226 Tennessee Martin W 66 - 50 58% +20  7 - 10 5 - 4 +9 -2 D- B- F +12 B+ C A+
 Thu, Jan 22 282 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 69% +5  8 - 10 6 - 4 -5 -6 D- F B +1 A- C+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 356 @Western Illinois W 72 - 66 72%
 Sat, Jan 31 310 @Eastern Illinois W 68 - 67 53%
 Thu, Feb 5 302 Morehead St. W 77 - 71 73%
 Sat, Feb 7 329 Southern Indiana W 75 - 66 80%
 Thu, Feb 12 257 @SIU Edwardsville L 67 - 69 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 237 @Lindenwood L 75 - 78 37%
 Tue, Feb 17 226 @Tennessee Martin L 67 - 71 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 282 @Arkansas Little Rock L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 342 Tennessee Tech W 79 - 69 82%
Totals 13 - 14 11 - 8 -5 -4 D+ B- C -1 D+ D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 2.6 0.8 4.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 6.1 2.4 0.1 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 7.5 5.5 0.3 14.1 3rd
4th 0.2 5.1 9.9 1.1 0.0 16.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 10.9 3.8 0.1 17.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 7.7 6.6 0.4 15.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.5 7.1 1.3 13.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.7 1.3 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.3 9.3 18.8 24.6 23.1 13.9 5.4 0.9 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 85.8% 0.8    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 48.6% 2.6    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.1
13-7 9.1% 1.3    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.9% 44.3% 44.3% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5
14-6 5.4% 33.1% 33.1% 15.3 0.1 1.0 0.7 3.6
13-7 13.9% 23.6% 23.6% 15.7 0.0 1.0 2.2 10.6
12-8 23.1% 11.9% 11.9% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.2 20.3
11-9 24.6% 7.8% 7.8% 15.9 0.3 1.7 22.7
10-10 18.8% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.1 0.9 17.8
9-11 9.3% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.4 8.9
8-12 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 3.2
7-13 0.7% 0.7
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 15.7 88.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.4 3.7 51.9 43.2 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%