IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.6	#161
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.2	#304
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.6	#201

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.2	#137

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.8%	19.1%	10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.3%	1.6%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.3	12.2	13.4

.500 or above	55.7%	80.7%	53.5%
.500 or above in Conference	71.7%	85.2%	70.5%
Conference Champion	12.5%	21.9%	11.6%
Last Place in Conference	2.1%	0.7%	2.2%

First Four	1.0%	1.3%	1.0%
First Round	10.4%	18.6%	9.7%
Second Round	1.5%	3.2%	1.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	1.1%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 8.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 3	4 - 5	5 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 3	15 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	31	@ San Diego St.	L	57-71	8%
Nov 16, 2023	81	@ Central Florida	L	59-68	21%
Nov 19, 2023	157	Cornell	L	74-75	49%
Nov 26, 2023	67	@ Nebraska	L	62-72	18%
Dec 01, 2023	267	North Dakota	W	73-64	79%
Dec 06, 2023	191	@ Pepperdine	L	73-74	45%
Dec 09, 2023	252	@ Sacramento St.	W	64-62	58%
Dec 17, 2023	54	@ Boise St.	L	60-72	15%
Dec 20, 2023	188	Pacific	W	73-69	65%
Dec 28, 2023	141	Long Beach St.	W	76-74	56%
Dec 31, 2023	142	@ Hawaii	L	61-65	36%
Jan 04, 2024	97	@ UC Irvine	L	65-72	26%
Jan 06, 2024	241	UC San Diego	W	72-64	74%
Jan 13, 2024	316	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	67-61	70%
Jan 18, 2024	173	UC Davis	W	72-68	62%
Jan 20, 2024	150	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	64-68	38%
Jan 25, 2024	334	@ Cal Poly	W	65-57	75%
Jan 27, 2024	254	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	66-57	76%
Feb 01, 2024	142	Hawaii	W	64-62	56%
Feb 08, 2024	173	@ UC Davis	L	69-71	42%
Feb 10, 2024	254	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	W	63-60	58%
Feb 15, 2024	202	UC Riverside	W	69-64	67%
Feb 17, 2024	241	@ UC San Diego	W	69-67	56%
Feb 22, 2024	334	Cal Poly	W	68-54	88%
Feb 24, 2024	316	Cal St. Northridge	W	70-58	84%
Feb 29, 2024	141	@ Long Beach St.	L	73-77	37%
Mar 02, 2024	150	UC Santa Barbara	W	67-65	58%
Mar 07, 2024	202	@ UC Riverside	L	66-67	48%
Mar 09, 2024	97	UC Irvine	L	68-69	46%
Projected Record						15 - 14	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.7	2.1	3.3	3.1	2.0	0.9	0.2		12.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.7	3.7	4.3	2.4	0.7	0.1				13.2	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	2.5	4.6	3.9	1.5	0.2	0.0					13.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.6	2.8	5.3	3.3	0.9	0.1	0.0						13.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.0	0.7	3.1	4.9	2.6	0.6	0.0								11.8	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	0.9	3.1	4.4	2.1	0.3	0.0									11.0	6th
7th							0.1	0.9	2.9	3.5	1.6	0.2	0.0										9.3	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.0	2.4	2.3	0.9	0.1	0.0											6.9	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.0	1.8	1.4	0.6	0.1	0.0												5.1	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.9	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0													2.9	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0																1.1	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.2	2.2	3.6	5.0	6.8	8.4	9.8	10.5	11.0	10.3	9.2	8.0	5.8	3.8	2.1	0.9	0.2			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
19-1	100.0%	0.9		0.9	0.0
18-2	96.0%	2.0		1.8	0.3
17-3	81.6%	3.1		2.3	0.8	0.0
16-4	56.2%	3.3		1.8	1.3	0.2	0.0
15-5	26.1%	2.1		0.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-6	8.0%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0				0.0		0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	12.5%	12.5		7.9	3.5	0.9	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.2%		77.5%	63.7%	13.7%	8.6			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		37.9%
19-1	0.9%		61.8%	55.8%	6.0%	10.7				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0				0.4		13.6%
18-2	2.1%		49.3%	44.4%	4.9%	11.6							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.1		8.8%
17-3	3.8%		34.8%	33.9%	0.9%	12.3										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.4	0.1			2.5		1.4%
16-4	5.8%		27.1%	26.9%	0.1%	12.7											0.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.0		4.2		0.2%
15-5	8.0%		19.9%	19.9%		13.2												0.0	0.3	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	6.4
14-6	9.2%		13.9%	13.9%		13.7												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.0	7.9
13-7	10.3%		11.3%	11.3%		14.2													0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	9.2
12-8	11.0%		7.9%	7.9%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	10.1
11-9	10.5%		4.7%	4.7%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	10.1
10-10	9.8%		4.0%	4.0%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.3	9.4
9-11	8.4%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.2	8.2
8-12	6.8%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.1	6.7
7-13	5.0%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	4.9
6-14	3.6%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	3.6
5-15	2.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	2.2
4-16	1.2%																							1.2
3-17	0.7%																							0.7
2-18	0.3%																							0.3
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		10.8%	10.6%	0.2%	13.3			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	2.3	2.5	2.1	1.4	1.2	89.2		0.3%