Preseason Rankings
Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#311
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.4#122
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#325
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#261
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.2% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.6 15.3
.500 or above 9.8% 25.2% 7.9%
.500 or above in Conference 22.3% 36.1% 20.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 15.7% 7.5% 16.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 1.1% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 11.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 72 - 14
Quad 48 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 139   @ George Mason L 62-75 11%    
  Nov 10, 2023 63   @ West Virginia L 63-83 3%    
  Nov 18, 2023 130   Princeton L 67-75 25%    
  Nov 21, 2023 274   Lehigh W 73-72 54%    
  Nov 24, 2023 128   Belmont L 68-79 17%    
  Nov 25, 2023 293   Lafayette L 64-65 46%    
  Nov 26, 2023 203   @ Penn L 67-76 20%    
  Nov 29, 2023 157   @ Cornell L 72-84 15%    
  Dec 09, 2023 240   Northern Illinois L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 12, 2023 66   @ Seton Hall L 59-78 5%    
  Dec 16, 2023 230   Rider L 68-70 45%    
  Dec 21, 2023 325   Manhattan W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 31, 2023 53   @ Oklahoma L 57-78 4%    
  Jan 04, 2024 158   Towson L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 08, 2024 228   Northeastern L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 11, 2024 140   @ UNC Wilmington L 61-74 13%    
  Jan 13, 2024 80   @ College of Charleston L 67-85 7%    
  Jan 18, 2024 125   @ Drexel L 58-72 12%    
  Jan 20, 2024 312   Hampton W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 25, 2024 255   @ Stony Brook L 64-70 31%    
  Jan 27, 2024 112   Hofstra L 67-76 23%    
  Feb 01, 2024 125   Drexel L 61-69 26%    
  Feb 03, 2024 194   @ Delaware L 66-76 21%    
  Feb 08, 2024 302   William & Mary W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 10, 2024 228   @ Northeastern L 65-73 26%    
  Feb 15, 2024 294   Campbell W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 17, 2024 255   Stony Brook L 66-67 50%    
  Feb 22, 2024 158   @ Towson L 62-74 17%    
  Feb 24, 2024 352   N.C. A&T W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 29, 2024 312   @ Hampton L 72-75 41%    
  Mar 02, 2024 309   @ Elon L 67-70 40%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.2 1.8 0.1 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 5.4 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 5.2 4.8 1.0 0.0 12.5 11th
12th 0.2 1.6 5.0 4.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.8 12th
13th 0.3 2.2 4.7 4.2 1.3 0.1 12.8 13th
14th 0.7 2.3 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.2 14th
Total 0.7 2.6 5.6 8.6 11.4 13.2 13.5 11.8 10.3 8.1 5.9 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 51.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 51.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 19.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 20.1% 20.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 12.6% 12.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 5.7% 5.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.2% 5.1% 5.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.3% 3.1% 3.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
11-7 3.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
10-8 5.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.8
9-9 8.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 8.0
8-10 10.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 10.2
7-11 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.8
6-12 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.5
5-13 13.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.2
4-14 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.4
3-15 8.6% 8.6
2-16 5.6% 5.6
1-17 2.6% 2.6
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%