Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#281
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#268
Pace74.1#45
Improvement+2.4#85

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#334
First Shot-5.2#319
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#262
Layup/Dunks-6.7#351
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#269
Freethrows-1.5#274
Improvement-0.8#228

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#182
First Shot+1.2#137
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#300
Layups/Dunks+5.1#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#340
Freethrows+0.4#152
Improvement+3.2#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 16.2% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 39.5% 45.2% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.1%
Conference Champion 23.2% 26.6% 10.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.6% 12.7% 12.1%
First Round8.9% 9.5% 6.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Home) - 78.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 414 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 41   @ Xavier L 69-78 4%     0 - 1 +5.1 +0.8 +4.6
  Nov 10, 2024 36   @ Georgia L 64-92 3%     0 - 2 -13.3 -1.3 -11.0
  Nov 12, 2024 102   @ Georgia Tech L 62-81 11%     0 - 3 -12.4 -10.0 -1.3
  Nov 17, 2024 110   @ Samford L 82-97 12%     0 - 4 -8.9 +4.4 -12.2
  Nov 24, 2024 49   @ New Mexico L 68-99 4%     0 - 5 -17.7 -3.9 -10.6
  Dec 01, 2024 184   Texas St. L 59-72 38%     0 - 6 -16.6 -13.0 -4.5
  Dec 07, 2024 186   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-87 22%     0 - 7 -14.5 -0.1 -15.2
  Dec 14, 2024 89   @ Nevada L 73-105 8%     0 - 8 -23.0 +2.0 -24.0
  Dec 17, 2024 54   @ Boise St. L 51-82 5%     0 - 9 -18.5 -19.5 +2.7
  Dec 21, 2024 241   @ Abilene Christian L 65-69 33%     0 - 10 -6.3 -11.7 +5.8
  Jan 04, 2025 217   Southern L 58-67 45%     0 - 11 0 - 1 -14.6 -13.6 -0.9
  Jan 06, 2025 326   Grambling St. W 71-66 OT 72%     1 - 11 1 - 1 -7.7 -15.6 +7.2
  Jan 13, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 82-53 93%     2 - 11 2 - 1 +5.4 -0.4 +5.8
  Jan 18, 2025 327   Alcorn St. W 66-57 72%     3 - 11 3 - 1 -3.8 -8.2 +5.0
  Jan 20, 2025 299   Jackson St. W 81-73 63%     4 - 11 4 - 1 -2.2 +3.6 -6.0
  Jan 25, 2025 358   @ Alabama A&M W 82-78 OT 67%     5 - 11 5 - 1 -7.4 -7.9 -0.1
  Jan 27, 2025 311   @ Alabama St. W 80-69 48%     6 - 11 6 - 1 +4.8 +2.5 +2.2
  Feb 01, 2025 344   Prairie View W 81-73 79%    
  Feb 04, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-76 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 348   Florida A&M W 75-67 79%    
  Feb 10, 2025 279   Bethune-Cookman W 71-69 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 326   @ Grambling St. W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 17, 2025 217   @ Southern L 66-72 27%    
  Feb 22, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 78-56 98%    
  Feb 24, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 87-73 91%    
  Mar 01, 2025 299   @ Jackson St. L 71-73 42%    
  Mar 03, 2025 327   @ Alcorn St. W 69-68 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 344   @ Prairie View W 78-75 58%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.6 6.5 8.7 5.2 1.1 23.2 1st
2nd 0.4 5.8 14.8 14.7 5.5 0.8 42.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 9.4 6.1 0.9 19.6 3rd
4th 1.0 4.6 2.8 0.3 8.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 1.9 0.1 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.3 10.1 18.3 22.8 22.0 14.2 6.0 1.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 86.4% 5.2    4.2 1.0
15-3 61.1% 8.7    5.2 3.4 0.2
14-4 29.4% 6.5    2.1 3.5 0.8 0.1
13-5 7.1% 1.6    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 12.6 8.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.1% 32.4% 32.4% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7
16-2 6.0% 26.2% 26.2% 15.8 0.3 1.3 4.4
15-3 14.2% 22.3% 22.3% 15.9 0.2 3.0 11.1
14-4 22.0% 18.9% 18.9% 16.0 0.1 4.1 17.9
13-5 22.8% 13.5% 13.5% 16.0 3.1 19.7
12-6 18.3% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 2.1 16.2
11-7 10.1% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.9 9.2
10-8 4.3% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.2 4.0
9-9 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.7 14.7 84.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.7 41.2 50.0 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%