Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
152 Lipscomb 21.1%   15   2 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 5 +0.4      +1.7 127 -1.2 209 70.9 128 -0.5 193 0.0 1
177 North Florida 15.5%   3 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 -0.8      +3.4 88 -4.3 313 70.7 135 +7.4 80 0.0 1
186 North Alabama 14.8%   2 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 -1.3      +1.1 145 -2.4 250 69.0 187 -0.9 202 0.0 1
187 Jacksonville 14.4%   2 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 -1.3      -2.7 253 +1.4 130 65.4 288 +5.1 109 0.0 1
199 Eastern Kentucky 12.7%   2 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -1.9      +1.1 144 -3.0 268 70.5 141 +7.5 78 0.0 1
218 Florida Gulf Coast 9.7%   0 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 7 -2.7      -2.3 239 -0.4 185 61.7 350 -9.5 305 0.0 1
238 Austin Peay 7.1%   2 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -3.9      -1.6 217 -2.2 244 62.6 340 +5.1 110 0.0 1
297 Queens 2.4%   1 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -7.2      -5.0 313 -2.3 246 79.8 12 -4.2 243 0.0 1
327 Stetson 1.2%   0 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 11 -9.3      -3.7 282 -5.5 340 66.7 261 -18.2 357 0.0 1
336 Bellarmine 0.5%   0 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -10.6      -4.4 301 -6.1 347 64.3 317 -22.6 364 0.0 1
340 Central Arkansas 0.4%   0 - 3 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -11.7      -6.2 339 -5.5 339 71.8 104 -13.4 329 0.0 1
353 West Georgia 0.2%   0 - 5 0 - 0 6 - 24 4 - 14 -13.2      -6.2 341 -7.0 353 68.6 199 -14.0 334 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 3.0 30.9 20.8 15.2 11.2 8.4 5.8 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
North Florida 3.8 21.4 17.4 14.5 12.4 10.6 8.6 6.3 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2
North Alabama 4.1 18.1 15.2 14.3 13.0 10.9 9.8 7.7 5.2 3.2 1.5 0.8 0.3
Jacksonville 4.0 19.2 15.8 13.9 12.4 11.2 9.1 7.3 5.2 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.3
Eastern Kentucky 4.6 13.8 12.8 12.5 12.7 11.6 10.8 9.6 7.0 4.6 2.8 1.3 0.4
Florida Gulf Coast 4.7 12.2 13.0 13.2 13.1 12.2 11.2 9.2 7.1 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.5
Austin Peay 5.3 8.3 10.0 11.0 12.4 12.7 12.5 11.2 9.1 6.3 3.7 2.0 0.9
Queens 7.2 2.4 3.8 5.2 6.9 9.0 10.8 12.8 14.5 13.2 10.3 7.0 4.1
Stetson 8.2 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.3 5.6 8.1 11.0 13.6 16.1 14.5 12.5 8.7
Bellarmine 9.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.9 4.7 7.2 10.7 15.7 19.3 20.7 15.1
Central Arkansas 9.6 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.6 4.0 6.3 9.7 14.2 19.0 20.6 20.4
West Georgia 10.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.7 4.6 8.0 12.6 17.9 22.8 28.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.1 5.5 8.3 11.8 14.2 15.5 14.7 12.0 7.6 3.7 0.9
North Florida 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.6 5.5 8.3 10.8 12.8 14.2 13.6 11.6 8.3 4.9 2.1 0.5
North Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.5 7.0 9.4 11.7 13.4 13.8 12.7 10.0 7.0 4.0 1.5 0.4
Jacksonville 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.3 6.5 9.2 11.4 13.0 13.4 12.5 10.6 7.4 4.5 1.8 0.5
Eastern Kentucky 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.0 6.1 8.4 10.8 12.6 13.3 12.9 10.5 8.1 5.2 2.8 1.0 0.3
Florida Gulf Coast 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.7 6.2 8.5 11.0 13.2 13.6 13.0 11.0 7.9 4.9 2.5 0.9 0.2
Austin Peay 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.3 5.3 8.1 10.6 12.5 13.3 13.3 11.2 8.9 5.8 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
Queens 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.5 6.2 8.9 11.7 12.5 13.1 12.4 10.2 7.7 5.3 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stetson 7 - 11 0.4 1.7 4.0 7.2 10.4 12.3 13.2 13.2 11.7 9.4 6.8 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 5 - 13 1.0 3.8 8.0 12.0 15.0 14.8 14.0 11.2 8.2 5.5 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 5 - 13 1.5 5.2 9.7 13.3 15.1 15.0 12.8 10.0 7.0 4.6 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 4 - 14 2.4 7.2 12.5 16.0 16.2 14.4 11.7 8.1 5.2 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 30.9% 20.0 8.2 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Florida 21.4% 13.2 6.0 1.8 0.3 0.1
North Alabama 18.1% 11.1 5.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 19.2% 12.0 5.4 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 13.8% 8.2 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 12.2% 6.8 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 8.3% 4.3 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0
Queens 2.4% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stetson 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 6.3 6.0 3.1 78.9 0.0%
North Florida 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.4 4.6 3.5 0.9 84.5 0.0%
North Alabama 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.2 4.6 2.9 85.2 0.0%
Jacksonville 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2 4.3 4.0 1.5 85.6 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.8 3.7 1.5 87.3 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.2 90.3 0.0%
Austin Peay 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.4 1.8 92.9 0.0%
Queens 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 97.6 0.0%
Stetson 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 98.8 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
West Georgia 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 21.1% 1.1% 20.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 15.5% 0.3% 15.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 14.8% 1.1% 14.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 14.4% 0.6% 14.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 12.7% 0.6% 12.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 9.7% 2.4% 8.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 7.1% 0.9% 6.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 2.4% 1.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 95.5% 1.0 4.5 95.5 0.0
2nd Round 6.4% 0.1 93.6 6.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0