Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
92 Lipscomb 51.9%   13   11 - 6 5 - 1 21 - 8 15 - 3 +6.1      +3.3 95 +2.8 95 67.9 202 +3.3 115 +3.4 3
163 North Alabama 12.8%   10 - 7 4 - 2 18 - 11 12 - 6 +0.2      +1.4 137 -1.2 215 69.0 173 -0.7 182 0.0 5
168 Florida Gulf Coast 12.2%   9 - 9 5 - 1 17 - 13 13 - 5 -0.3      -0.2 183 -0.2 180 62.8 330 -0.8 186 +2.5 4
184 Jacksonville 10.3%   9 - 7 5 - 1 17 - 11 13 - 5 -1.0      -3.5 264 +2.4 102 68.3 190 +1.8 137 +4.4 2
210 Queens 7.0%   10 - 7 5 - 1 18 - 11 13 - 5 -2.5      -0.2 184 -2.3 245 74.0 57 +1.8 138 +8.3 1
246 North Florida 2.5%   7 - 10 2 - 4 13 - 16 8 - 10 -4.6      +3.1 98 -7.8 355 75.9 28 -3.0 220 -11.0 9
247 Eastern Kentucky 2.5%   7 - 10 3 - 3 13 - 16 9 - 9 -4.8      -0.3 187 -4.6 310 70.5 126 -4.3 239 -6.3 6
300 Austin Peay 0.7%   5 - 12 2 - 4 10 - 19 7 - 11 -7.7      -6.4 335 -1.3 217 63.9 302 -5.6 257 -8.4 8
338 Central Arkansas 0.1%   3 - 14 1 - 5 6 - 23 4 - 14 -11.5      -6.6 340 -4.9 315 67.8 209 -14.6 345 -16.1 11
348 Stetson 0.1%   3 - 14 3 - 3 6 - 23 6 - 12 -12.1      -3.5 266 -8.6 360 69.0 171 -13.7 341 -7.9 7
349 West Georgia 0.0%   2 - 16 1 - 5 5 - 25 4 - 14 -12.5      -6.4 334 -6.1 339 68.9 174 -14.7 346 -15.0 10
353 Bellarmine 0.0%   1 - 16 0 - 6 4 - 25 3 - 15 -13.5      -3.5 262 -10.0 362 64.5 285 -20.4 362 -19.5 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 1.4 74.6 15.7 6.2 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
North Alabama 3.5 9.3 17.3 22.3 22.2 21.4 5.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 2.9 16.0 27.7 24.1 18.2 9.6 3.0 0.9 0.3 0.0
Jacksonville 3.0 14.8 27.6 20.8 19.3 12.1 3.9 1.1 0.3 0.0
Queens 3.3 12.8 21.8 22.9 19.8 16.0 5.0 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Florida 6.7 0.1 0.8 1.9 4.3 9.7 26.9 28.4 17.3 7.2 2.6 0.9 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 6.3 0.2 1.1 2.9 5.9 14.0 34.9 22.5 13.0 4.3 1.1 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 5.5 17.2 26.9 27.8 12.6 5.3 1.9 0.6
Central Arkansas 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.6 8.6 18.5 26.8 27.4 14.2
Stetson 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 6.5 11.8 20.9 34.2 17.5 6.1 1.5
West Georgia 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 7.9 17.7 27.2 25.7 17.2
Bellarmine 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.6 9.3 15.2 28.6 42.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 7.5 17.3 26.0 29.4 16.3
North Alabama 12 - 6 0.1 0.4 1.1 4.2 9.8 17.7 22.4 22.2 15.0 6.1 1.1
Florida Gulf Coast 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 5.1 11.3 18.7 23.1 21.0 12.8 5.0 0.9
Jacksonville 13 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.7 12.3 18.2 22.2 20.1 11.9 5.5 1.0
Queens 13 - 5 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 7.7 14.0 20.7 21.2 17.6 9.7 3.8 0.5
North Florida 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.4 4.5 10.3 16.4 21.2 20.2 14.3 7.5 3.0 0.7 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.0 13.3 19.6 21.8 18.6 11.6 4.9 1.7 0.3 0.0
Austin Peay 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 3.4 9.1 16.7 21.3 20.8 15.4 8.3 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Central Arkansas 4 - 14 2.8 10.9 20.5 24.1 19.8 12.6 6.3 2.3 0.5 0.1
Stetson 6 - 12 4.1 14.7 22.9 24.3 18.1 9.7 4.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
West Georgia 4 - 14 3.1 11.6 20.9 23.6 20.3 11.9 5.8 2.2 0.5 0.1
Bellarmine 3 - 15 3.3 12.6 22.7 24.0 19.3 11.2 4.8 1.7 0.4 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 74.6% 55.5 15.3 3.2 0.6 0.1
North Alabama 9.3% 3.4 3.8 1.6 0.4 0.1
Florida Gulf Coast 16.0% 6.7 6.5 2.3 0.5 0.1
Jacksonville 14.8% 6.2 6.4 1.7 0.5 0.1
Queens 12.8% 5.3 5.2 1.8 0.4 0.1
North Florida 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 0.0% 0.0
Central Arkansas
Stetson
West Georgia
Bellarmine


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 51.9% 51.9% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.2 5.5 22.1 18.3 5.5 0.3 0.0 48.1 0.0%
North Alabama 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.7 3.3 0.4 87.2 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.0 4.2 0.8 87.8 0.0%
Jacksonville 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.9 3.7 0.6 89.7 0.0%
Queens 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.1 0.7 93.0 0.0%
North Florida 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.1 97.5 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 97.5 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Stetson 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 51.9% 0.0% 51.9% 8.7% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 12.8% 0.1% 12.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 12.2% 0.2% 12.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 10.3% 0.1% 10.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 7.0% 0.1% 6.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 2.5% 0.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.5% 0.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.8% 1.0 1.2 98.8
2nd Round 10.9% 0.1 89.1 10.9
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0