Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
101 Lipscomb 43.3%   14   18 - 9 12 - 4 20 - 9 14 - 4 +4.4      +2.2 110 +2.3 103 66.8 215 +2.1 134 +1.2 2
134 North Alabama 25.4%   18 - 9 12 - 4 20 - 9 14 - 4 +1.4      +2.4 108 -1.0 203 67.1 208 +0.6 155 +2.0 1
180 Florida Gulf Coast 10.7%   15 - 13 11 - 5 17 - 13 13 - 5 -1.1      +1.0 149 -2.0 228 63.0 316 -1.3 185 -0.3 3
191 Eastern Kentucky 7.4%   15 - 12 11 - 5 16 - 13 12 - 6 -1.8      +1.5 121 -3.4 274 70.3 126 -1.4 187 -0.7 4
193 Jacksonville 7.5%   14 - 12 10 - 6 16 - 12 12 - 6 -1.9      -3.5 269 +1.6 131 68.8 165 -1.0 179 -1.9 5
231 Queens 3.8%   15 - 12 10 - 6 16 - 13 11 - 7 -3.8      -0.3 181 -3.5 281 72.4 70 -2.3 204 -2.4 6
266 North Florida 1.2%   13 - 14 8 - 8 14 - 15 9 - 9 -5.6      +1.3 131 -6.9 349 77.9 12 -2.9 213 -6.0 8
276 Austin Peay 0.6%   11 - 16 8 - 8 12 - 17 9 - 9 -6.5      -3.9 280 -2.5 243 65.2 260 -4.9 245 -5.3 7
340 Bellarmine 0.0%   3 - 24 2 - 14 4 - 25 3 - 15 -11.6      -1.7 219 -9.9 362 65.9 241 -17.7 358 -17.1 12
344 Central Arkansas 0.0%   6 - 21 4 - 12 6 - 23 4 - 14 -12.3      -6.5 337 -5.8 332 65.8 242 -12.8 339 -12.3 10
348 West Georgia 0.0%   4 - 24 3 - 13 5 - 25 4 - 14 -12.8      -6.5 334 -6.3 342 69.5 135 -14.1 348 -14.0 11
349 Stetson 0.1%   5 - 22 5 - 11 6 - 23 6 - 12 -12.9      -4.3 293 -8.6 358 68.2 184 -13.1 342 -9.9 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 1.2 82.9 16.6 0.5 0.1
North Alabama 1.3 74.8 22.7 2.0 0.6
Florida Gulf Coast 2.7 6.0 29.3 56.3 7.5 0.8 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 3.8 1.8 9.7 27.0 34.6 22.8 4.1
Jacksonville 4.3 0.6 18.7 39.3 32.5 8.9
Queens 5.2 0.6 5.0 10.9 45.6 37.9
North Florida 7.3 0.1 2.7 61.7 35.5
Austin Peay 7.2 0.1 3.4 71.7 24.8
Bellarmine 11.7 3.9 20.9 75.3
Central Arkansas 10.0 7.5 83.4 9.1
West Georgia 10.5 4.5 42.9 50.1 2.5
Stetson 9.0 99.8 0.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 14 - 4 0.8 24.7 74.6
North Alabama 14 - 4 3.3 29.7 67.0
Florida Gulf Coast 13 - 5 2.7 29.1 68.3
Eastern Kentucky 12 - 6 30.0 48.0 22.0
Jacksonville 12 - 6 4.2 40.4 55.4
Queens 11 - 7 22.1 62.5 15.4
North Florida 9 - 9 40.6 47.6 11.8
Austin Peay 9 - 9 30.2 55.0 14.8
Bellarmine 3 - 15 50.4 44.5 5.1
Central Arkansas 4 - 14 82.3 17.1 0.6
West Georgia 4 - 14 44.7 44.2 11.1
Stetson 6 - 12 40.4 53.9 5.7




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 82.9% 24.6 52.4 4.8 1.1
North Alabama 74.8% 16.9 52.2 4.6 1.1
Florida Gulf Coast 6.0% 0.0 0.5 4.3 1.1
Eastern Kentucky 1.8% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1
Jacksonville
Queens
North Florida
Austin Peay
Bellarmine
Central Arkansas
West Georgia
Stetson


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 43.3% 43.3% 0.0% 14   0.0 10.1 23.5 9.2 0.5 56.7 0.0%
North Alabama 25.4% 25.4% 0.0% 0.7 8.3 13.1 3.3 0.0 74.7 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.6 4.2 5.4 0.5 89.3 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.3 2.4 4.1 0.7 92.6 0.0%
Jacksonville 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.1 2.1 4.4 0.9 92.5 0.0%
Queens 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.0 1.7 96.2 0.0%
North Florida 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 0.7 98.8 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 43.3% 0.0% 43.3% 4.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 25.4% 0.0% 25.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 10.7% 0.1% 10.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 7.4% 0.1% 7.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 7.5% 0.1% 7.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 3.8% 0.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 1.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.3% 1.0 0.7 99.3
2nd Round 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0