Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
70 Drake 34.9%   12   7 - 0 1 - 0 22 - 6 15 - 5 +7.9      +2.5 109 +5.4 43 60.4 352 +17.8 15 +14.7 4
76 Bradley 26.5%   7 - 2 1 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +7.1      +6.1 43 +1.1 134 65.9 263 +8.4 71 +17.6 1
99 Northern Iowa 15.7%   6 - 4 1 - 0 19 - 11 13 - 7 +5.3      +4.2 72 +1.1 131 64.4 299 +1.9 140 +15.5 3
116 Murray St. 9.4%   5 - 3 1 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 +3.2      +1.6 129 +1.6 122 62.8 330 +2.8 126 +6.5 6
129 Belmont 6.5%   8 - 2 1 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +1.9      +3.7 80 -1.7 224 76.2 30 +6.1 93 +12.1 5
160 Illinois St. 3.1%   5 - 4 0 - 1 15 - 15 9 - 11 -0.1      +1.9 125 -2.0 233 62.8 329 +0.9 155 -10.3 8
168 Indiana St. 2.8%   5 - 4 1 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 11 -0.6      +2.5 110 -3.0 270 77.2 24 -2.1 200 +16.7 2
169 Southern Illinois 2.6%   3 - 6 0 - 1 12 - 17 9 - 11 -0.6      -2.0 230 +1.5 124 70.1 145 -2.6 208 -11.1 10
191 Missouri St. 1.8%   4 - 5 0 - 1 13 - 16 8 - 12 -1.5      -1.8 222 +0.3 160 66.5 247 -1.0 185 -18.8 12
215 Illinois-Chicago 1.0%   4 - 4 0 - 1 11 - 17 7 - 13 -2.7      -1.2 203 -1.5 214 71.1 116 +0.9 156 -12.9 11
227 Valparaiso 0.7%   4 - 4 0 - 1 11 - 18 7 - 13 -3.5      -0.1 175 -3.3 283 69.1 172 -4.8 250 -10.3 9
268 Evansville 0.3%   2 - 7 0 - 1 8 - 22 6 - 14 -5.7      -3.6 275 -2.2 241 70.5 134 -9.1 315 -9.0 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Drake 2.1 47.3 23.8 13.4 7.1 4.0 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bradley 2.5 35.1 26.0 16.3 9.7 5.6 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 3.4 18.5 21.3 19.4 14.7 10.3 6.4 4.0 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
Murray St. 4.6 9.3 13.3 16.0 15.7 13.7 10.2 7.9 5.7 4.0 2.4 1.3 0.5
Belmont 5.0 6.0 10.9 14.3 16.0 14.8 12.1 9.1 6.7 4.9 3.0 1.6 0.6
Illinois St. 7.0 1.3 3.3 5.8 8.6 11.2 12.8 12.8 12.2 11.3 9.5 7.1 4.0
Indiana St. 6.6 2.0 4.3 7.5 10.1 12.3 13.1 13.1 12.0 10.1 7.7 5.2 2.6
Southern Illinois 7.3 0.9 2.6 5.2 8.2 10.1 11.7 12.9 12.4 11.9 10.3 8.5 5.4
Missouri St. 7.8 0.6 1.8 3.9 5.9 8.7 10.4 12.3 13.0 13.0 12.5 10.5 7.5
Illinois-Chicago 8.7 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.7 5.7 8.2 9.9 12.2 13.6 15.1 15.5 12.9
Valparaiso 8.9 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.5 5.2 7.1 9.2 11.0 13.2 15.6 16.7 15.8
Evansville 9.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.6 4.2 6.0 8.4 10.9 15.2 20.4 30.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Drake 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.0 6.5 9.7 12.9 15.1 16.1 14.3 10.2 5.4 1.6
Bradley 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.6 5.9 8.8 11.8 14.3 15.6 14.5 11.1 7.1 3.1 0.7
Northern Iowa 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.6 7.0 10.3 12.9 14.6 14.4 12.3 9.3 6.0 2.7 0.9 0.2
Murray St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.8 6.2 8.8 11.2 13.1 13.3 12.7 10.6 7.6 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1
Belmont 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 4.9 7.4 10.2 12.8 14.2 13.4 11.9 9.2 5.9 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Illinois St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.2 5.7 8.9 11.4 13.1 13.9 12.9 10.5 7.9 5.0 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.4 7.1 10.4 12.8 14.0 13.4 11.9 9.1 6.2 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.8 9.6 12.2 13.3 13.6 12.2 9.7 7.0 4.4 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 8 - 12 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.0 5.4 8.5 11.2 13.3 14.2 13.0 10.6 8.0 5.3 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 7 - 13 0.1 0.9 2.7 5.1 8.5 11.8 13.8 14.2 13.0 10.9 8.0 5.2 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 7 - 13 0.2 1.2 3.2 6.5 9.7 12.5 14.0 13.9 12.1 9.7 7.3 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Evansville 6 - 14 0.9 3.2 7.0 11.3 14.1 15.0 14.1 12.0 8.9 6.2 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Drake 47.3% 35.1 10.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bradley 35.1% 24.6 8.6 1.7 0.2 0.0
Northern Iowa 18.5% 11.4 5.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 9.3% 5.2 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Belmont 6.0% 3.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.9% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Evansville 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Drake 34.9% 30.6% 4.3% 12   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.5 3.0 13.3 13.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 65.1 6.2%
Bradley 26.5% 25.6% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 7.2 14.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 73.5 1.1%
Northern Iowa 15.7% 15.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1 8.8 3.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 84.3 0.1%
Murray St. 9.4% 9.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.9 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 90.6 0.1%
Belmont 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.2 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 93.5 0.0%
Illinois St. 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 96.9 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 97.2 0.0%
Southern Illinois 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 97.4 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 98.2 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.0 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.3 0.0%
Evansville 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Drake 34.9% 2.6% 33.6% 11.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bradley 26.5% 0.6% 26.2% 7.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 15.7% 0.1% 15.7% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 9.4% 0.1% 9.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 6.5% 0.0% 6.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 3.1% 0.1% 3.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.8% 0.1% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 2.6% 0.3% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.8% 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.7 5.3 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 96.0 3.6 0.0
2nd Round 24.7% 0.2 75.3 24.4 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 6.7% 0.1 93.3 6.7 0.0
Elite Eight 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0