Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
74 Drake 41.5%   12   22 - 3 14 - 3 24 - 4 16 - 4 +7.7      +4.4 75 +3.3 83 53.9 364 +12.4 44 +8.8 1
94 Bradley 21.7%   20 - 7 12 - 5 22 - 8 14 - 6 +5.1      +3.0 92 +2.1 108 65.9 238 +6.7 81 +6.1 3
100 Northern Iowa 18.6%   18 - 9 13 - 4 20 - 10 15 - 5 +4.6      +2.6 99 +2.0 116 64.9 269 +4.0 105 +6.9 2
127 Illinois St. 4.5%   15 - 12 8 - 9 17 - 13 10 - 10 +1.8      +4.9 68 -3.2 265 63.0 314 +1.8 143 +0.4 6
140 Belmont 6.5%   17 - 10 10 - 7 19 - 11 12 - 8 +1.1      +5.0 67 -3.8 290 75.8 25 +3.1 120 +2.8 4
147 Illinois-Chicago 3.3%   13 - 12 8 - 9 15 - 13 10 - 10 +0.7      +1.1 140 -0.4 183 71.6 83 +1.7 144 +0.4 5
156 Murray St. 2.9%   13 - 14 8 - 9 14 - 16 9 - 11 +0.5      -0.6 193 +1.1 139 62.7 326 +0.5 160 +0.2 7
179 Southern Illinois 1.5%   10 - 16 7 - 10 12 - 17 9 - 11 -1.0      -1.2 210 +0.2 168 68.3 175 -2.2 203 -1.4 10
203 Indiana St. 0.7%   11 - 15 7 - 10 12 - 17 8 - 12 -2.2      +0.9 151 -3.1 256 78.6 11 -2.5 208 -1.4 9
219 Missouri St. 0.6%   7 - 19 2 - 15 8 - 21 3 - 17 -3.2      -3.4 266 +0.2 172 62.0 339 -5.9 266 -11.5 12
237 Evansville 0.3%   10 - 17 8 - 9 11 - 19 9 - 11 -4.1      -4.6 300 +0.5 160 66.5 225 -3.4 221 -0.9 8
238 Valparaiso 0.3%   10 - 16 5 - 12 11 - 18 6 - 14 -4.2      -0.4 187 -3.8 288 69.2 145 -4.1 233 -5.0 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Drake 1.1 94.6 5.0 0.4
Bradley 2.4 5.6 48.8 44.8 0.8
Northern Iowa 2.0 22.9 51.0 26.1
Illinois St. 5.7 8.6 51.4 19.4 12.1 4.0 3.7 0.8
Belmont 3.9 0.2 8.6 88.8 1.9 0.5 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 5.6 6.9 50.0 24.9 11.4 4.2 2.4 0.3
Murray St. 6.4 6.2 23.1 25.0 26.4 10.4 7.1 1.9
Southern Illinois 7.5 0.6 13.4 15.0 19.8 22.3 15.6 12.7 0.6
Indiana St. 8.4 0.7 4.1 9.3 14.3 17.8 22.6 30.9 0.4
Missouri St. 12.0 0.9 99.1
Evansville 7.6 0.8 11.0 13.8 17.5 23.5 29.4 4.0
Valparaiso 10.9 0.0 0.9 0.8 6.7 91.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Drake 16 - 4 1.3 14.4 47.5 36.8
Bradley 14 - 6 3.0 18.0 42.9 36.1
Northern Iowa 15 - 5 9.0 36.0 40.5 14.5
Illinois St. 10 - 10 5.4 27.3 43.9 23.4
Belmont 12 - 8 5.3 25.0 43.6 26.1
Illinois-Chicago 10 - 10 4.1 26.7 52.9 16.3
Murray St. 9 - 11 14.8 46.4 32.3 6.5
Southern Illinois 9 - 11 8.6 33.8 41.6 16.0
Indiana St. 8 - 12 23.0 44.5 27.1 5.4
Missouri St. 3 - 17 29.4 45.7 22.7 2.2
Evansville 9 - 11 49.2 38.5 11.0 1.3
Valparaiso 6 - 14 41.3 41.6 15.2 2.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Drake 94.6% 75.5 15.4 3.7
Bradley 5.6% 0.1 1.9 3.7
Northern Iowa 22.9% 4.9 14.3 3.7
Illinois St.
Belmont
Illinois-Chicago
Murray St.
Southern Illinois
Indiana St.
Missouri St.
Evansville
Valparaiso


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Drake 41.5% 39.2% 2.2% 12   0.1 1.7 22.0 17.5 0.1 58.5 3.7%
Bradley 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 1.9 16.2 3.4 0.2 78.3 0.0%
Northern Iowa 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 0.8 11.4 5.6 0.8 81.4 0.0%
Illinois St. 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 95.5 0.0%
Belmont 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 3.2 1.6 0.2 93.5 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 96.7 0.0%
Murray St. 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.0 97.1 0.0%
Southern Illinois 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.0 98.5 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 99.3 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Evansville 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Drake 41.5% 2.1% 40.2% 8.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 21.7% 0.0% 21.7% 3.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 18.6% 0.0% 18.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 4.5% 0.0% 4.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 6.5% 0.0% 6.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 3.3% 0.0% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 1.5% 0.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.8 2.2
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 98.2 1.0
2nd Round 14.9% 0.1 85.2 14.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.3 2.8
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0