Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
90 Bradley 24.7%   12   2 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 9 14 - 6 +5.8      +2.9 97 +2.9 91 67.7 230 +3.0 132 0.0 1
98 Drake 23.3%   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 8 14 - 6 +5.2      +1.9 127 +3.3 82 67.7 229 +9.4 47 0.0 1
128 Northern Iowa 11.7%   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 9 +2.5      +1.6 134 +0.9 140 66.4 266 -0.4 205 0.0 1
136 Murray St. 9.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 +1.4      +1.2 144 +0.1 163 62.7 344 +1.4 163 0.0 1
151 Belmont 7.8%   1 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +0.9      +1.3 141 -0.3 178 75.5 44 +1.1 171 0.0 1
161 Southern Illinois 7.1%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 10 +0.4      -0.6 183 +1.0 137 63.3 332 -7.9 300 0.0 1
162 Illinois-Chicago 6.7%   1 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 10 +0.3      +0.6 160 -0.3 176 74.9 54 +6.8 77 0.0 1
173 Illinois St. 4.8%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 11 -0.7      -0.8 190 +0.1 165 63.1 337 -0.2 196 0.0 1
195 Missouri St. 3.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -1.9      -2.8 265 +0.9 142 69.2 185 -4.4 264 0.0 1
207 Indiana St. 2.5%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 12 -2.6      -0.8 189 -1.8 234 74.8 55 -19.3 356 0.0 1
248 Evansville 1.4%   0 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 13 -4.3      -2.7 261 -1.5 219 70.5 141 -5.8 278 0.0 1
278 Valparaiso 0.6%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 14 -6.1      -2.6 256 -3.5 288 69.1 186 -16.0 347 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Bradley 3.1 32.1 20.4 14.2 10.2 7.5 5.5 3.8 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3
Drake 3.2 33.1 19.3 13.4 9.8 7.3 5.2 4.0 3.0 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.4
Northern Iowa 4.9 12.8 13.0 12.7 11.6 10.4 9.5 8.3 7.1 5.6 4.6 2.9 1.6
Murray St. 5.4 10.4 11.2 11.3 11.1 10.3 9.6 8.7 8.1 7.1 5.5 4.3 2.5
Belmont 5.5 8.7 10.7 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.2 9.1 8.3 6.7 5.5 4.0 2.4
Southern Illinois 6.0 7.0 8.9 10.2 10.1 10.4 10.2 9.2 9.0 8.2 7.3 5.9 3.8
Illinois-Chicago 6.0 6.8 8.9 9.6 10.3 10.3 10.4 9.8 9.4 8.1 7.2 5.8 3.4
Illinois St. 6.7 4.2 6.1 7.9 8.6 9.9 9.9 10.6 10.9 9.9 9.2 7.9 4.8
Missouri St. 7.1 3.6 5.3 6.8 7.9 8.7 9.5 9.8 10.5 10.3 10.3 9.4 7.8
Indiana St. 7.7 2.2 3.8 4.9 6.7 7.6 9.0 9.7 10.9 11.4 12.3 12.0 9.5
Evansville 8.5 1.1 2.2 3.4 4.8 6.0 7.0 8.1 10.1 12.1 13.8 15.7 15.8
Valparaiso 9.6 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.3 4.3 6.1 8.4 10.5 13.9 19.7 28.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Bradley 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.6 3.9 5.9 7.6 9.9 11.9 12.6 12.5 11.3 9.1 5.9 3.0 0.9
Drake 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.8 4.1 5.7 7.8 9.2 10.8 11.7 12.2 10.8 9.3 6.6 3.5 1.3
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.2 3.6 5.2 7.0 8.7 10.2 11.2 11.1 10.4 9.3 7.5 5.1 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.1
Murray St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.6 6.7 8.1 9.4 10.2 11.0 10.4 9.6 8.1 6.3 4.2 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1
Belmont 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.6 6.5 8.4 9.7 11.2 11.3 10.9 9.5 8.0 6.3 3.7 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.8 4.3 5.9 8.0 9.3 9.9 11.0 10.5 9.9 8.5 6.4 4.8 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.2 6.0 8.0 9.5 10.7 11.1 10.7 9.9 8.3 6.5 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1
Illinois St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.8 5.8 7.8 9.6 10.9 11.2 11.2 10.3 8.5 6.4 4.7 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.0 6.8 8.8 10.0 11.0 10.7 10.1 9.1 7.3 5.7 4.2 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.9 6.4 8.6 10.2 11.1 11.4 10.8 9.7 7.8 6.3 4.4 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Evansville 7 - 13 0.4 1.7 4.1 6.6 8.5 10.9 11.7 12.0 10.7 9.3 7.5 6.2 4.3 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 6 - 14 1.4 4.3 7.6 10.7 12.3 12.9 12.3 10.8 8.9 6.6 4.9 3.3 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Bradley 32.1% 22.8 7.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Drake 33.1% 24.3 7.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 12.8% 8.1 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 10.4% 6.4 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
Belmont 8.7% 5.2 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 7.0% 4.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 6.8% 4.0 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 4.2% 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 3.6% 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 2.2% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Evansville 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Bradley 24.7% 23.8% 0.9% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 3.6 9.8 6.0 2.0 0.4 0.1 75.3 1.2%
Drake 23.3% 21.7% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 4.2 8.8 4.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 76.7 2.0%
Northern Iowa 11.7% 11.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 4.0 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 88.3 0.3%
Murray St. 9.2% 9.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 90.8 0.2%
Belmont 7.8% 7.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.2 92.2 0.1%
Southern Illinois 7.1% 7.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 92.9 0.1%
Illinois-Chicago 6.7% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 93.3 0.1%
Illinois St. 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 95.2 0.0%
Missouri St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 96.5 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 97.5 0.0%
Evansville 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 98.6 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Bradley 24.7% 0.5% 24.5% 6.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 23.3% 1.0% 22.8% 6.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 11.7% 0.3% 11.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 9.2% 0.3% 9.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 7.8% 0.2% 7.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 7.1% 0.3% 7.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 6.7% 0.2% 6.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 4.8% 0.2% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 3.5% 0.2% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.5% 0.2% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 1.4% 0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.7 3.3 0.0
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 97.0 2.4
2nd Round 21.3% 0.2 78.7 21.1 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.1 0.0
Elite Eight 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0