Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
73 Bradley 33.8%   12   15 - 3 7 - 1 24 - 6 16 - 4 +7.6      +3.6 87 +4.0 73 65.9 244 +9.6 57 +11.0 1
80 Drake 32.3%   14 - 2 6 - 2 23 - 5 15 - 5 +7.1      +3.0 101 +4.1 67 54.9 364 +12.7 40 +7.0 2
113 Northern Iowa 9.2%   10 - 8 5 - 3 16 - 14 11 - 9 +3.0      +3.1 100 -0.1 179 64.7 280 +0.9 157 +2.4 5
139 Belmont 7.0%   13 - 5 6 - 2 20 - 10 13 - 7 +1.6      +3.3 92 -1.8 235 76.2 26 +5.7 96 +6.7 3
142 Murray St. 5.6%   9 - 9 4 - 4 16 - 14 11 - 9 +1.5      +0.5 166 +1.0 138 62.9 319 +1.0 154 +1.3 6
143 Illinois-Chicago 6.3%   10 - 6 5 - 3 17 - 11 12 - 8 +1.4      +1.7 132 -0.3 187 70.9 114 +4.5 102 +4.7 4
144 Illinois St. 4.8%   10 - 8 3 - 5 16 - 14 9 - 11 +1.4      +4.1 73 -2.7 259 62.0 340 +1.5 145 -3.0 11
190 Southern Illinois 1.6%   6 - 11 3 - 5 11 - 18 8 - 12 -1.3      -1.7 221 +0.5 153 69.2 167 -3.6 227 -2.9 10
213 Indiana St. 0.8%   7 - 10 3 - 5 12 - 17 8 - 12 -2.7      +1.0 147 -3.7 282 79.9 7 -3.1 222 -1.7 8
214 Valparaiso 0.7%   8 - 9 3 - 5 13 - 16 8 - 12 -2.9      -1.1 205 -1.7 233 69.4 159 -1.7 203 -1.3 7
244 Missouri St. 0.3%   5 - 12 0 - 8 9 - 20 4 - 16 -4.6      -2.8 245 -1.8 234 62.2 336 -5.9 264 -17.5 12
261 Evansville 0.2%   5 - 13 3 - 5 8 - 22 6 - 14 -5.6      -6.8 342 +1.2 134 67.2 220 -6.5 272 -2.6 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Bradley 1.6 62.1 25.0 8.0 3.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Drake 1.8 45.2 38.2 10.3 3.9 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.0
Northern Iowa 4.5 4.1 9.0 19.2 20.7 19.3 13.3 8.0 4.2 1.8 0.5 0.1
Belmont 3.6 8.2 16.6 31.1 19.3 12.4 7.0 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 5.4 1.1 4.4 12.9 16.3 18.5 18.4 12.8 8.0 4.6 2.4 0.7 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 4.4 2.7 9.4 22.6 23.9 17.9 11.8 6.3 3.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Illinois St. 6.8 0.3 1.2 4.4 8.4 12.8 17.3 19.5 15.9 10.3 6.6 2.9 0.4
Southern Illinois 8.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.8 6.6 10.6 14.1 18.1 17.4 15.7 10.7 1.5
Indiana St. 8.4 0.1 0.9 2.7 5.1 9.0 13.2 16.8 20.1 18.6 11.2 2.2
Valparaiso 8.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 5.5 9.6 14.1 19.0 18.4 16.3 10.9 2.2
Missouri St. 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 6.6 17.1 71.4
Evansville 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.4 6.2 11.2 16.3 22.7 30.6 7.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Bradley 16 - 4 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 7.6 13.7 20.2 22.9 19.1 9.9 2.7
Drake 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.5 10.1 17.6 23.4 22.6 14.7 4.7
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 9.3 15.3 19.4 20.6 15.5 9.2 3.7 1.2 0.1
Belmont 13 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.6 8.3 15.0 19.5 20.2 16.7 9.9 4.3 1.2 0.1
Murray St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.4 8.5 14.4 19.2 20.2 16.1 9.9 4.3 1.2 0.2
Illinois-Chicago 12 - 8 0.1 0.7 2.9 7.1 13.7 19.9 21.8 18.0 10.2 4.3 1.0 0.2
Illinois St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.7 10.4 17.0 20.0 19.5 14.3 7.8 3.1 1.0 0.1
Southern Illinois 8 - 12 0.4 2.4 6.8 12.8 18.5 19.4 17.7 11.8 6.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 8 - 12 0.4 2.4 7.6 15.5 20.5 20.8 16.2 10.1 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 8 - 12 0.4 2.2 6.8 13.5 19.8 21.0 17.8 10.4 5.2 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 4 - 16 1.8 8.4 16.9 21.8 21.1 15.8 8.2 4.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Evansville 6 - 14 2.7 10.2 18.2 22.7 19.8 14.1 7.6 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Bradley 62.1% 45.3 14.3 2.2 0.3 0.0
Drake 45.2% 28.5 14.2 2.1 0.3 0.1
Northern Iowa 4.1% 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Belmont 8.2% 3.1 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
Murray St. 1.1% 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 2.7% 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Illinois St. 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Indiana St.
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Missouri St.
Evansville 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Bradley 33.8% 33.1% 0.7% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 10.0 19.2 2.6 0.1 66.2 1.0%
Drake 32.3% 30.5% 1.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.3 12.6 15.9 0.9 0.0 67.7 2.5%
Northern Iowa 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.8 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 90.8 0.0%
Belmont 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.2 2.8 2.9 1.0 0.1 93.0 0.0%
Murray St. 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.1 1.8 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 94.4 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.1 2.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 93.7 0.0%
Illinois St. 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 95.2 0.0%
Southern Illinois 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 98.4 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.2 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.3 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Bradley 33.8% 0.6% 33.5% 8.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 32.3% 1.5% 31.4% 7.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 9.2% 0.0% 9.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 7.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 5.6% 0.1% 5.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 1.6% 0.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.6 2.4
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 98.3 1.2
2nd Round 18.7% 0.2 81.3 18.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.9
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0