South Carolina Upstate
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -8.3 302
Results Rating -7.9 293
Consistency 0.12 39
Pace 69.3 156
Improvement -3.1 292

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 337 D D+ D+ D+ C
Defense C- 212 C D+ D+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 106 D 52% 312 -0.7 206
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 131 C- 36% 245 +0.2 169
Three Pointers 36% 279 D+ 32% 257 -3.3 289
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 195 D -3.7 308
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 297
Second Chance C- 28.4% 238 D 0.93 318 D+ 0.26 283
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.5% 285
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 205
Turnovers D+ 17.9% 266
Freethrows D+ 0.28 246 D+ 70% 267 D+ 0.20 279
Total Offense D- -7.1 337

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 166 D+ 13.0% 303
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 317 D 7.0% 305
Three Pointers D 77% 322 D+ 1.2% 281
Total D+ 50% 295 D- 7.4% 335


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 31 C+ 56% 113 +2.6 268
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 236 B 35% 66 -1.3 81
Three Pointers 37% 303 D+ 36% 256 -1.4 131
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 291 C+ -0.8 149
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 171
Second Chance C 30.2% 181 F+ 1.18 353 D+ 0.36 293
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.4% 259
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 218
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 258
Freethrows C+ 0.29 160 B- 71% 87 C+ 0.21 134
Total Defense C- -1.2 212

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 43 B- 13.4% 84
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 101 B+ 8.8% 30
Three Pointers C+ 82% 121 D 0.2% 318
Total B 50% 65 B 7.7% 39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 122 17.0 126
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 181 0.15 121
Consistency 0.11 76 0.11 109
Improvement -3.2 324 +0.1 188

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 311 302 290
Results Rating Rank 320 297 289
Conference Record 5 - 11 5 - 11 5 - 11
Conference Finish 8 8 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 41 - 11
Quad 410 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 133 @California Baptist L 75 - 87 11% -8  1% 0 - 1 D+ -7 B- +4 B- C+ F F -11 F B+ F
 Wed, Nov 5 129 @Fresno St. W 67 - 66 11% -4  23% 1 - 1 B- +6 D -5 B C+ F A +11 A+ F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 106 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 73 8% -8  11% 1 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 D B- F+ D+ -4 C F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 310 Tennessee Tech L 84 - 88 64% -3  15% 1 - 3 F+ -16 D -5 C+ F B F -11 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 308 @West Georgia L 64 - 72 40% -4  15% 1 - 4 D- -14 F -15 F D- C+ C+ +2 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 347 NC Central W 82 - 67 77% +10  96% 2 - 4 C -1 C- -1 A- D- F C +0 A D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 16 @Nebraska L 63 - 72 1% -2  41% 2 - 5 B+ +12 C- -1 C+ C- A A+ +14 A B- A
 Wed, Dec 3 228 Coastal Carolina W 85 - 78 OT 44% -7  9% 3 - 5 C +0 C- -2 C D- D+ C+ +1 C A- D-
 Sat, Dec 6 231 Western Carolina W 78 - 67 44% +4  87% 4 - 5 C+ +4 D -5 D- C D- A +9 A+ B D-
 Sat, Dec 13 26 @North Carolina L 62 - 80 2% -8  5% 4 - 6 C +0 C +0 C B- A- C- -2 C+ C D-
 Tue, Dec 16 359 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 72 68% +6  94% 5 - 6 D+ -7 C +0 C C C+ D- -8 F D- D-
 Sat, Dec 20 217 @Youngstown St. L 65 - 74 22% -8  2% 5 - 7 D -9 F -10 F C- D+ C+ +1 D+ A C-
 Wed, Dec 31 243 Radford L 69 - 76 47% -4  14% 5 - 8 0 - 1 D- -15 F -14 F C D+ C -1 C D B-
 Sat, Jan 3 271 @Presbyterian L 77 - 86 31% -4  16% 5 - 9 0 - 2 D- -12 C +1 B D D- F -13 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 145 Winthrop L 50 - 71 27% -15  6% 5 - 10 0 - 3 F -23 F -25 F D F C+ +1 C- C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 251 @Charleston Southern W 86 - 81 OT 27% -1  25% 6 - 10 1 - 3 C+ +3 C- -0 F+ A- B B- +3 F+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 94 @High Point L 69 - 89 6% -7  1% 6 - 11 1 - 4 D -11 D+ -2 F B C- F+ -9 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 21 247 UNC Asheville L 69 - 83 48% -6  0% 6 - 12 1 - 5 F -22 D- -7 C+ F A- F -16 F C+ F+
 Fri, Jan 23 362 @Gardner-Webb L 65 - 67 75% +3  70% 6 - 13 1 - 6 F+ -17 F -14 F F D+ D+ -3 C+ F+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 254 Longwood W 65 - 60 50% +2  68% 7 - 13 2 - 6 C- -3 F -14 C- F F A +11 B B A
 Wed, Feb 4 247 @UNC Asheville L 67 - 76 27% -0  48% 7 - 14 2 - 7 D -11 D- -6 D F B D+ -5 F C C+
 Sat, Feb 7 251 Charleston Southern W 100 - 94 OT 49% -0  41% 8 - 14 3 - 7 C- -2 A +12 A D- A+ F -14 C- F B+
 Thu, Feb 12 94 High Point L 70 - 95 15% -15  1% 8 - 15 3 - 8 F -22 F -11 B- D- F F+ -9 A- F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 254 @Longwood L 75 - 82 OT 28% -3  9% 8 - 16 3 - 9 D -9 F -13 F A+ F B +5 C+ C- D-
 Thu, Feb 19 145 @Winthrop L 64 - 68 13% -2  28% 8 - 17 3 - 10 C +0 D- -8 F D B+ A- +7 A F A+
 Sat, Feb 21 271 Presbyterian W 76 - 74 53% +7  96% 9 - 17 4 - 10 D+ -7 C+ +4 B- B- D+ F -11 C- F F
 Thu, Feb 26 243 @Radford L 59 - 71 26% -3  33% 9 - 18 4 - 11 D- -14 F -16 F F+ F C+ +1 C+ F C
 Sat, Feb 28 362 Gardner-Webb W 71 - 61 88% +7  89% 10 - 18 5 - 11 D -11 F -15 F D C+ B +4 B- D C-
 Wed, Mar 4 362 Gardner-Webb W 79 - 69 82%
Totals 11 - 18 5 - 11 -8 D- -7 A D C C- -1 D+ D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D C- D+ D 41% 42% 36% C D C- D D+ D+ D+ D+ D+ C- C+ B D+ C+ 45% 19% 37% D C C F+ D+ D+ C+ B- C+
0.98 52% 36% 32% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .26 18% .28 70% .20 1.10 56% 35% 36% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.2 .36 15% .29 71% .20
Nov
3		 California Baptist B- B+ B- F B- 44% 25% 31% C B- D+ A C+ F A+ D A+ F D- F F F 58% 13% 28% F F C A B+ F D A+ B-
1.06 62% 42% 27% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.1 .27 20% .51 69% .35 1.23 61% 71% 40% +9 +2 1.25 37% 0.7 .26 10% .33 57% .19
Nov
5		 Fresno St. D C- A+ D B 43% 25% 32% C B C+ B- C+ F A+ F B+ A A+ B A+ A+ 41% 12% 47% F+ A+ D+ F F C- F A D
0.95 58% 55% 29% +1 0 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 31% .35 65% .23 0.93 43% 33% 21% -16 +1 0.73 33% 1.4 .44 17% .37 68% .26
Nov
15		 UNC Wilmington D+ F+ D+ C- D+ 27% 38% 36% F+ D A D- B- F+ A+ D+ A D+ C B D C 52% 30% 18% D C F B- F C+ F F+ F
0.98 50% 35% 31% -5 -3 0.87 35% 0.9 .32 18% .36 72% .26 1.19 57% 31% 38% -2 0 0.98 50% 1.0 .50 16% .54 75% .41
Nov
19		 Tennessee Tech D B- A+ F C- 53% 11% 37% A C+ D- F F B A+ F B F D- A+ F F 38% 22% 40% C- F D- F F B+ F D- F
1.09 63% 83% 24% +2 +2 1.11 24% 0.8 .19 12% .40 63% .25 1.14 65% 20% 44% +5 0 1.11 34% 1.3 .45 22% .53 81% .43
Nov
21		 West Georgia F F F F+ F 48% 14% 38% C+ F C F D- C+ F+ F F C+ B D- A+ C 50% 35% 15% D- C F D F A+ B F C
0.90 44% 13% 29% -13 +2 0.79 31% 0.7 .20 14% .26 63% .16 1.01 50% 44% 25% -4 -1 0.92 40% 1.1 .46 22% .22 83% .18
Nov
25		 NC Central C- A- F A+ A- 48% 16% 36% B- A- C F D- F A+ C A+ C A+ A+ D+ A+ 51% 20% 29% F+ A F B- D- F F C- F
1.19 71% 29% 50% +14 +1 1.32 39% 0.8 .29 23% .49 73% .36 0.97 36% 20% 36% -14 +1 0.76 37% 0.9 .35 13% .54 75% .40
Nov
29		 Nebraska C- F D B C+ 15% 32% 53% D C+ D C+ C- A F F F A+ F A+ A- A 28% 18% 54% A- A C+ B B- A D D+ D
0.88 44% 32% 35% -3 -3 0.90 20% 0.9 .18 15% .13 38% .05 1.00 79% 22% 30% -1 0 1.00 27% 1.0 .27 18% .31 78% .24
Dec
3		 Coastal Carolina C- C- C- C C- 47% 22% 31% A C C- F D- D+ A+ D- A+ C+ B A+ F C+ 41% 19% 41% F C C+ A+ A- D- A- D B+
1.06 52% 38% 33% -3 0 0.97 26% 0.7 .19 14% .52 67% .35 0.97 50% 8% 42% -4 0 0.95 25% 0.6 .15 12% .19 77% .14
Dec
6		 Western Carolina D A+ D F+ D 24% 24% 51% F+ D- D A+ C D- A+ B+ A+ A A A+ A+ A+ 46% 20% 34% D+ A+ A+ F B D- F F F
1.09 73% 36% 30% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 18% .51 80% .41 0.93 43% 10% 24% -18 +1 0.68 21% 1.3 .29 14% .45 82% .37
Dec
13		 North Carolina C D- D B+ B- 19% 39% 42% F C C+ B+ B- A- F D F C- B B+ F B- 46% 12% 42% D- C+ A+ F C D- D+ B+ C
0.97 45% 32% 38% -3 -4 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 11% .05 67% .04 1.25 57% 33% 43% +4 +2 1.14 23% 1.6 .37 9% .38 64% .24
Dec
16		 South Carolina St. C D+ A+ B B- 42% 22% 36% F+ C D A- C C+ B F C- D- F F D- F 20% 47% 33% A+ F A+ F D- D- A D+ A-
1.16 58% 60% 38% +7 0 1.16 33% 1.3 .44 16% .44 64% .28 1.07 70% 48% 38% +9 -5 1.10 19% 1.8 .35 18% .23 69% .16
Dec
20		 Youngstown St. F D- F F F 36% 34% 30% F F F+ A+ C- D+ A+ C+ A+ C+ C- A- D- D+ 39% 15% 46% C D+ C+ A+ A C- F B- F
0.92 53% 25% 29% -9 -2 0.81 23% 1.3 .29 20% .44 76% .33 1.04 61% 29% 38% +3 +1 1.09 28% 0.6 .17 18% .50 69% .35
Dec
31		 Radford F F C+ F F 60% 9% 30% A F B- D+ C D+ D- B- D C C B C C 44% 19% 38% C- C C+ F D B- D- C+ D
0.95 44% 40% 25% -13 +3 0.83 36% 1.0 .36 19% .27 75% .20 1.04 57% 33% 33% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.2 .33 19% .41 71% .29
Jan
3		 Presbyterian C A+ F A+ A 32% 34% 34% F B F A+ D D- A F B- F F C- F+ F 37% 44% 20% A+ F C F D- F F D F
1.10 75% 29% 47% +9 -2 1.16 17% 1.4 .24 19% .39 59% .23 1.23 80% 39% 38% +9 -3 1.15 32% 1.2 .39 13% .71 72% .51
Jan
10		 Winthrop F F F F F 55% 22% 22% B- F F A+ D F F+ D+ F+ C+ B+ A+ D- C 42% 6% 52% D- C- F A+ C+ B+ C+ A+ A
0.75 44% 0% 18% -21 +1 0.61 18% 1.4 .26 21% .26 71% .19 1.06 48% 0% 38% -3 +2 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 18% .35 58% .20
Jan
14		 Charleston Southern C- F C+ F F+ 46% 37% 17% D F+ B- A A- B C F+ D+ B- F D- C F 44% 16% 40% C+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ D+
1.08 41% 39% 27% -9 -2 0.81 33% 1.3 .41 10% .35 64% .22 1.02 72% 44% 35% +8 +1 1.19 19% 0.0 .00 15% .37 52% .19
Jan
17		 High Point D+ F F C+ F 38% 16% 46% C F A- D+ B C- C- B- C F+ C+ F A- B- 47% 15% 38% C- C+ D+ F F F B- B B
1.02 42% 25% 35% -8 +1 0.88 40% 1.0 .40 22% .30 75% .23 1.31 58% 50% 29% -2 +1 1.02 34% 1.8 .60 7% .33 71% .24
Jan
21		 UNC Asheville D- F+ A+ B C 52% 12% 37% B+ C+ D+ F F A- F+ F F F C- A+ F F 45% 29% 27% F F B- C- C+ F+ D- F F
1.03 48% 83% 37% +2 +2 1.10 27% 0.4 .11 12% .26 53% .14 1.24 59% 29% 62% +9 -1 1.18 28% 1.0 .28 13% .38 77% .29
Jan
23		 Gardner-Webb F F F A+ F 43% 23% 34% D+ F F+ F F D+ A+ C- A D+ B+ A+ C B 60% 12% 29% F C+ F B- F+ D+ B- F C-
0.98 40% 27% 44% -5 0 0.91 28% 0.7 .21 17% .40 73% .29 1.01 48% 17% 33% -9 +3 0.90 34% 0.9 .31 18% .24 77% .18
Jan
29		 Longwood F C+ F B D+ 52% 8% 40% A- C- C- F F F D F F A C- D A+ B+ 41% 22% 37% C- B C- A B A A+ A+ A+
0.92 64% 0% 37% +2 +3 1.10 27% 0.5 .14 26% .31 44% .13 0.85 59% 42% 20% -7 0 0.89 34% 0.8 .26 24% .17 44% .07
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 UNC Asheville D- B F D- D+ 40% 24% 36% D D D F F B D+ D D D+ F B- D- F 32% 23% 45% F F B+ F+ C C+ C- B+ C
0.99 64% 31% 30% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.3 .08 13% .29 65% .19 1.13 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 25% 1.1 .29 18% .34 63% .22
Feb
7		 Charleston Southern A F+ A+ A+ A 45% 23% 32% B- A B- F D- A+ C- A+ B- F F+ F B+ C 37% 5% 58% D C- F F F B+ D+ F F
1.30 46% 64% 45% +6 0 1.15 33% 0.6 .21 4% .34 80% .27 1.22 67% 67% 30% +1 +2 1.09 47% 1.3 .61 22% .28 82% .23
Feb
12		 High Point F B F C+ B- 45% 11% 45% B B- B- F D- F A+ D+ A+ F+ B+ B- A- A 47% 5% 48% F+ A- D+ F F D- C- C C-
0.93 65% 25% 35% +2 +2 1.11 36% 0.7 .25 36% .62 70% .44 1.27 52% 33% 29% -7 +3 0.93 34% 1.8 .61 11% .37 76% .28
Feb
14		 Longwood F F+ F F F 50% 25% 25% D+ F B+ A+ A+ F B- F D B A+ A+ F B 57% 20% 23% F C+ B- D- C- D- C- A C+
0.90 54% 29% 21% -9 0 0.84 35% 1.3 .46 25% .37 57% .21 0.98 38% 25% 57% -6 +1 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 17% .34 67% .23
Feb
19		 Winthrop D- F A- F F 31% 12% 57% C+ F D- C D B+ B+ B B+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 50% 5% 45% F A D F F A+ F A+ C-
0.95 40% 50% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 1.1 .25 13% .38 77% .29 1.01 33% 100% 26% -15 +3 0.79 37% 1.5 .55 21% .47 60% .28
Feb
21		 Presbyterian C+ C+ A C+ B- 55% 16% 29% B B- B C B- D+ D+ B C- F B- A F C 54% 21% 25% F C- A F F F A+ C- A
1.18 59% 50% 36% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 17% .26 71% .19 1.15 54% 27% 38% -3 +1 0.98 25% 1.9 .47 11% .23 69% .16
Feb
26		 Radford F F B+ F F 50% 18% 32% C+ F B+ F F+ F F C- F C+ A+ F+ F C 33% 24% 42% B+ C+ B+ F F C F C+ D-
0.88 48% 44% 25% -8 +1 0.88 40% 0.6 .23 22% .13 71% .10 1.05 33% 45% 42% -1 -1 0.98 24% 1.6 .39 18% .43 71% .31
Feb
28		 Gardner-Webb F C- D+ F F 54% 11% 35% A- F F A+ D C+ F A+ F B B- A+ B B+ 53% 11% 36% F+ B- A- F D C- A+ A+ A+
1.01 61% 33% 20% -6 +2 0.95 24% 1.4 .33 14% .17 90% .15 0.87 52% 0% 30% -10 +2 0.87 17% 1.7 .28 18% .14 38% .05



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 100.0 100.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11 100.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.5 99.5
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 99.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.0%
Lose Out 16.4%