Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -13.1 351
Expected Predictive Rating -11.4 334
Pace 68.6 185
Improvement -0.5 204

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #322 D+ D- D F+ D+
Defense D- #350 F+ F C+ D+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 169 55% 248 -0.8 210
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 71 30% 353 +0.1 173
Three Pointers 35% 308 36% 78 -1.9 251
1st FG Attempt 0.97 257 -2.6 257
Second Chance 25.5% 317 0.84 355 0.21 349
Turnovers 19.4% 320
Freethrows 0.23 354 69% 298 0.16 356
Total Offense -5.9 322

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 23 67% 356 -7.9 362
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 357 43% 319 +2.3 26
Three Pointers 41% 166 36% 266 -1.4 249
1st FG Attempt 1.16 359 -7.0 357
Second Chance 37.7% 359 1.21 355 0.45 363
Turnovers 17.9% 117
Freethrows 0.34 285 73% 243 0.25 285
Total Defense -7.2 350

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.7 277 +1.3 360
Shot Type Accuracy -1.9 236 +5.6 354
Possession Length 17.9 245 16.4 38
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 164 0.27 363
Improvement +1.2 #117 -1.7 #285

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 18% 38% 10%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 2% 1%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 26.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 30 - 11
Quad 48 - 118 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 93 @Florida St. L 76 - 108 3% -17  6% 0 - 1 F -24 C- -1 A C F F -20 F F D-
 Thu, Nov 6 191 @South Alabama L 70 - 76 10% +3  71% 0 - 2 D+ -5 D -5 A F F C +0 F+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 71 @Minnesota L 50 - 95 2% -30  0% 0 - 3 F -34 F -20 F C- F F -14 B- F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 104 @Maryland L 64 - 84 4% -12  0% 0 - 4 D- -13 F -10 C+ D- F C- -2 F+ D A+
 Thu, Nov 13 237 @Howard L 64 - 72 14% -5  1% 0 - 5 D -9 D -5 C+ F B+ D+ -4 F F A
 Tue, Nov 18 57 @LSU L 81 - 107 2% -7  28% 0 - 6 D- -13 B +7 B A+ D+ F -19 C+ F C
 Sun, Nov 23 54 @Oklahoma L 53 - 72 2% -5  23% 0 - 7 D+ -6 F -18 C F F A +12 A+ A D-
 Fri, Nov 28 197 Indiana St. W 81 - 74 16% +11  98% 1 - 7 C+ +5 D -5 A F+ F A- +8 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 29 223 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 83 12% -10  0% 1 - 8 F -25 F+ -8 D+ F D- F -20 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 8 @Iowa St. L 68 - 132 0% -36  5% 1 - 9 F -40 D+ -3 A+ D F F -29 F F B
 Fri, Dec 19 42 @Baylor L 56 - 113 1% -29  1% 1 - 10 F -41 F -20 F D- D+ F -15 F C+ B+
 Mon, Dec 29 65 @Mississippi L 43 - 79 2% -14  17% 1 - 11 F -25 F -24 F F B- C- -2 F+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 343 @Jackson St. L 86 - 89 35% -7  11% 1 - 12 0 - 1 D- -12 B- +5 C+ C- C+ F -17 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 305 @Alabama A&M W 64 - 62 23% -4  13% 2 - 12 1 - 1 C- -3 D- -8 D- F B B +4 C D- B-
 Mon, Jan 12 316 @Alabama St. L 66 - 81 26% -6  2% 2 - 13 1 - 2 F -22 F -12 F C+ D+ D- -9 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 309 Texas Southern L 71 - 72 45% -1  31% 2 - 14 1 - 3 D- -13 D -4 F+ F D+ D- -9 D F+ F+
 Mon, Jan 19 336 Prairie View W 76 - 75 55% +3  74% 3 - 14 2 - 3 D- -13 D -6 F C C D- -8 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 328 @Florida A&M L 58 - 66 30% +0  42% 3 - 15 2 - 4 F+ -16 F -16 F F F C -0 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 26 227 @Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 82 12% -11  4% 3 - 16 2 - 5 D -10 C- -1 D- A- B D- -8 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 264 Southern W 78 - 73 34% +1  52% 4 - 16 3 - 5 C- -4 B- +5 A+ D- F D- -8 D+ D- D+
 Mon, Feb 2 285 Grambling St. L 50 - 74 38% -13  2% 4 - 17 3 - 6 F -34 F -21 F F A F -16 F+ F C
 Sat, Feb 7 313 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 77 - 84 25% -10  0% 4 - 18 3 - 7 D- -13 C+ +2 B D- C F -16 F F A-
 Mon, Feb 9 365 @Mississippi Valley W 74 - 66 77% +12  98% 5 - 18 4 - 7 D- -13 B- +5 B F A+ F -16 D F D
 Sat, Feb 14 227 Bethune-Cookman L 71 - 78 27%
 Mon, Feb 16 328 Florida A&M W 74 - 73 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 343 Jackson St. W 79 - 77 56%
 Thu, Feb 26 309 @Texas Southern L 73 - 80 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 336 @Prairie View L 77 - 82 33%
 Tue, Mar 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 79 - 65 91%
 Thu, Mar 5 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 78 - 79 46%
Totals 8 - 22 7 - 11 -13 D -6 D+ D- D D- -7 F+ F C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- F+ B- C- 39% 26% 35% D+ D+ D F+ D- D F+ D F+ D- F+ D D+ F+ 45% 14% 41% F+ F+ F F+ F C+ D+ C- D+
1.00 55% 30% 36% -2 -1 0.97 25% 0.8 .21 19% .23 69% .16 1.19 67% 43% 36% +6 +1 1.16 38% 1.2 .45 18% .34 73% .17
Nov
4		 Florida St. C- D+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 39% 32% F A C- C+ C F A+ F A+ F F B- F F 54% 5% 40% F F D F F D- F+ B+ D
1.00 54% 53% 50% +12 -3 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 28% .49 59% .29 1.42 71% 33% 39% +10 +3 1.28 37% 1.4 .50 11% .37 68% .25
Nov
6		 South Alabama D A+ D B+ A 25% 6% 69% C+ A F F F F C A B- C F A+ D- F+ 59% 17% 24% D- F+ D- F F A+ F A- F
0.97 77% 33% 37% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.1 .03 25% .20 82% .17 1.06 67% 13% 36% +2 +2 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 21% .47 59% .28
Nov
8		 Minnesota F F+ F B+ F 35% 48% 17% F F D+ C- C- F C+ F C- F C+ B- A B+ 63% 6% 31% F B- F F F C+ F F F
0.72 47% 17% 38% -13 -4 0.69 24% 0.8 .20 23% .28 60% .17 1.36 60% 33% 27% -2 +4 1.04 58% 1.3 .73 17% .64 86% .55
Nov
11		 Maryland F A+ F A B 26% 30% 44% F C+ C- F D- F F+ F+ F+ C- F B+ B- F+ 33% 13% 54% D+ F+ F B D A+ F D+ F
0.89 77% 20% 41% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.8 .19 29% .22 64% .14 1.17 81% 33% 31% +5 +1 1.13 45% 1.0 .45 24% .49 74% .36
Nov
13		 Howard D B D D+ C+ 45% 19% 36% C- C+ F F F B+ F A+ F D+ F C A F 46% 27% 27% B+ F F F F A D B+ C-
0.96 63% 30% 32% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.3 .07 16% .21 83% .18 1.08 74% 36% 27% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.6 .67 25% .38 68% .26
Nov
18		 LSU B F+ A+ B+ A- 27% 27% 46% D- B B+ A+ A+ D+ F F F F C A A- 61% 0% 39% F C+ F F F C F D+ F
1.11 47% 53% 38% +4 -2 1.07 35% 1.3 .46 18% .18 45% .08 1.47 61% 28% -2 +4 1.07 56% 1.6 .88 15% .63 79% .50
Nov
23		 Oklahoma F D F A+ C+ 34% 30% 36% D+ C F F F F F F F A A A+ A A+ 32% 13% 55% C A+ D+ A+ A D- F A- F
0.77 50% 21% 47% -1 -1 0.98 20% 0.3 .06 28% .16 63% .10 1.05 47% 14% 28% -12 0 0.79 37% 0.9 .33 10% .45 68% .31
Nov
28		 Indiana St. D B+ A+ C A 46% 20% 33% B- A B F F+ F B+ F C A- B+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 4% 45% D- A+ D F F B F F F
1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18 0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32
Nov
29		 Louisiana Tech F+ F C- B D 51% 24% 24% C D+ B F F D- A F D F F B F F 44% 23% 33% C F F F F F A+ A A+
0.92 43% 36% 36% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.5 .19 21% .42 48% .20 1.31 65% 33% 41% +6 0 1.13 48% 1.2 .58 13% .16 56% .09
Dec
3		 Iowa St. D+ A+ F A+ A+ 30% 34% 36% D A+ C- F+ D F F+ D F+ F F+ A+ F F 44% 9% 47% F+ F F F F B D+ F+ D-
0.85 80% 24% 44% +7 -2 1.12 24% 0.9 .21 34% .17 67% .11 1.64 72% 20% 74% +33 +2 1.72 48% 2.0 .95 17% .36 75% .27
Dec
19		 Baylor F A+ F A F 10% 65% 25% F F D+ F D- D+ F A+ F F F F F F 36% 29% 35% D F F A+ C+ B+ D+ F F
0.72 83% 15% 40% -10 -8 0.67 26% 0.7 .19 18% .11 86% .09 1.45 90% 63% 47% +26 -1 1.51 48% 0.9 .43 18% .36 87% .31
Dec
29		 Mississippi F F F F F 32% 40% 28% F F F F+ F B- D- B D+ C- F A D D- 32% 20% 48% F F+ F A+ C- A+ A+ F A+
0.64 25% 20% 21% -23 -3 0.50 18% 0.9 .16 16% .27 73% .20 1.18 81% 30% 38% +8 0 1.18 44% 0.8 .36 19% .15 88% .13
Jan
3		 Jackson St. B- D- F A+ B- 28% 28% 44% F C+ C- C+ C- C+ A- F C F F C F+ F 36% 16% 48% F F C+ A- B F F F F
1.23 53% 20% 54% +7 -2 1.13 34% 1.1 .37 14% .40 58% .23 1.27 83% 38% 38% +12 0 1.26 24% 0.9 .21 14% .42 84% .35
Jan
10		 Alabama A&M D- F A- C- F+ 46% 18% 36% C+ D- D- F F B F B+ F B C+ F A+ C+ 35% 17% 48% D- C F+ D D- B- C+ A+ A
0.99 48% 44% 33% -4 +1 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 14% .23 77% .18 0.96 53% 63% 22% -6 0 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 19% .32 53% .17
Jan
12		 Alabama St. F F F F+ F 35% 19% 46% D+ F F+ A+ C+ D+ F+ C- F+ D- F A+ D- F 43% 11% 46% F F C F F A- F F F
0.92 44% 10% 29% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.6 .42 20% .28 75% .21 1.13 70% 0% 38% +4 +2 1.13 31% 1.3 .38 22% .47 81% .38
Jan
17		 Texas Southern D C+ F F F 46% 9% 46% B F+ D F F D+ B A+ A+ D- B- F B+ C- 62% 22% 16% F D D F+ F+ F+ F A F
1.10 62% 25% 24% -6 +2 0.93 28% 0.9 .25 17% .43 91% .39 1.11 54% 50% 29% -1 +2 1.02 30% 1.2 .36 14% .59 64% .38
Jan
19		 Prairie View D D+ A+ F F 44% 17% 39% C+ F A F C C F A D- D- F B- F F 38% 29% 33% D F A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F C-
1.09 54% 56% 24% -5 +1 0.94 48% 0.8 .38 19% .28 81% .23 1.07 70% 33% 41% +7 -1 1.13 13% 0.5 .07 14% .32 84% .27
Jan
24		 Florida A&M F F A+ F F 52% 19% 29% B- F D- F F F D+ D D C F+ A C- F+ 53% 10% 38% F F F+ F F A+ C C+ C
0.87 48% 67% 21% -5 +1 0.94 26% 0.6 .16 26% .30 73% .22 0.99 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 29% .30 64% .19
Jan
26		 Bethune-Cookman C- D F C D- 43% 25% 32% D D- C- A+ A- B F F+ F D- F F A F 55% 13% 32% F F C+ A B+ C- F C- F
1.04 50% 21% 33% -8 0 0.86 30% 1.6 .48 13% .20 67% .13 1.16 73% 67% 27% +9 +2 1.23 26% 0.8 .19 17% .44 69% .31
Jan
31		 Southern B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 9% 51% A- A+ D- D D- F D C D D- D F A C- 36% 20% 43% D- D+ F+ D+ D- D+ F C- F
1.20 67% 75% 43% +14 +2 1.33 26% 1.0 .26 23% .32 75% .24 1.12 63% 44% 26% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 15% .47 69% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Grambling St. F F F F F 49% 17% 34% C+ F F C F A C+ F D+ F D- B+ D+ F+ 43% 15% 43% D- F+ F F F C A+ D+ A
0.80 43% 0% 25% -18 +1 0.68 22% 1.0 .22 14% .35 63% .22 1.18 65% 29% 35% +2 +1 1.09 36% 1.5 .54 21% .24 75% .18
Feb
7		 Arkansas Pine Bluff C+ D+ D+ A+ A- 40% 24% 36% D B F A+ D- C F A+ F F C- F F F 45% 14% 40% F F F F F A- F D F
1.16 55% 33% 50% +6 0 1.14 21% 1.5 .32 15% .23 85% .20 1.27 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.31 36% 1.3 .48 23% .47 79% .37
Feb
9		 Mississippi Valley B- A+ F A- B 36% 14% 50% C+ B F A+ F A+ D+ D- D F B- F A+ D- 28% 42% 30% C+ D F F F D F A+ F+
1.26 81% 17% 41% +11 +1 1.25 12% 1.7 .20 7% .37 70% .26 1.12 50% 56% 23% 0 -3 0.95 41% 1.1 .44 19% .48 52% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 0.3 1.0 3rd
4th 1.0 1.7 0.1 2.8 4th
5th 0.2 4.1 0.9 5.2 5th
6th 2.0 5.4 0.3 7.7 6th
7th 0.2 8.0 2.4 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 3.5 10.6 0.3 14.4 8th
9th 1.2 12.4 4.0 0.0 17.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 7.1 10.8 0.3 18.8 10th
11th 0.8 6.5 11.5 2.8 21.6 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.8 7.1 19.8 29.7 25.1 13.2 3.7 0.7 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 3.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 3.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 3.6
9-9 13.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.5 12.7
8-10 25.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 24.8
7-11 29.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 29.7
6-12 19.8% 19.8
5-13 7.1% 7.1
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.8%