Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -8.4 301
Results Rating -9.5 315
Consistency 0.15 180
Pace 66.5 238
Improvement +5.0 31

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 286 D+ C- D+ F F
Defense D+ 292 D- C- C+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 319 B- 61% 101 -2.1 259
2 Pt. Jumpers 62% 10 F+ 30% 357 +2.4 62
Three Pointers 33% 333 C 34% 172 -3.9 312
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.0 354 C- -1.6 234
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 290
Second Chance C 30.0% 190 C- 0.99 244 C- 0.30 209
Opponents' Steals C- 10.0% 246
Other Turnovers D+ 8.1% 284
Turnovers D+ 18.0% 269
Freethrows F 0.23 357 F+ 66% 350 F 0.15 364
Total Offense D+ -4.4 286

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B 57% 57 A 6.3% 12
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 96 B- 3.8% 92
Three Pointers D+ 79% 289 C 0.8% 173
Total C 56% 157 A- 3.6% 16


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 153 D- 66% 347 +3.6 301
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 347 A- 32% 11 -3.3 3
Three Pointers 46% 44 F+ 38% 348 +5.6 354
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 331 D- +4.9 346
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 345
Second Chance F+ 35.9% 346 B 0.94 57 C- 0.34 252
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.5% 103
Other Turnovers C- 7.1% 209
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 127
Freethrows C 0.30 168 C+ 71% 122 C+ 0.21 153
Total Defense D+ -4.1 292

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 206 C- 9.8% 214
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 36% 332 A+ 15.4% 1
Three Pointers D 88% 305 C- 0.6% 242
Total D 62% 322 C+ 6.4% 119

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 261 16.8 92
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 171 0.23 341
Consistency 0.13 251 0.12 196
Improvement +2.1 87 +2.9 51

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 303 301 298
Results Rating Rank 315 313 310
Conference Record 9 - 11 9 - 11 9 - 11
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 410 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 274 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72 - 92 31% -7  4% 0 - 1 F -23 D -6 D B- F F -18 F F C
 Wed, Nov 12 79 @Marquette L 49 - 89 5% -18  6% 0 - 2 F -30 F -17 F+ F F F -14 F B D+
 Sat, Nov 15 291 @Ball St. W 68 - 62 35% +2  57% 1 - 2 C +1 D+ -3 B- A+ F B +5 F+ C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 124 @Murray St. L 68 - 89 10% -16  2% 1 - 3 F+ -15 D+ -4 F A F F -13 F F D
 Fri, Nov 21 233 @Texas St. L 56 - 65 24% -5  5% 1 - 4 D -10 F -13 F D F B- +3 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 121 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 74 10% -1  37% 1 - 5 C- -3 B- +4 A D+ F D- -8 F C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 169 @Central Arkansas L 47 - 85 16% -29  1% 1 - 6 F -36 F -29 F D- F D -6 F B- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 147 Arkansas St. L 78 - 90 27% -8  1% 1 - 7 D- -14 C- -1 A F B F -13 F D D-
 Tue, Dec 9 55 @West Virginia L 58 - 90 3% -22  0% 1 - 8 F -19 C- -1 F+ B+ B- F -21 F C C
 Tue, Dec 16 282 @Morehead St. L 64 - 78 32% -10  9% 1 - 9 0 - 1 F+ -18 F -19 F D F B- +2 D- D+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 336 @Southern Indiana W 77 - 62 53% +4  73% 2 - 9 1 - 1 B- +6 C+ +3 A+ F F B +4 D- D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 312 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 58 64% +5  75% 3 - 9 2 - 1 B- +7 C- -2 B- D- D A +9 A+ D+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 199 Tennessee St. L 79 - 84 37% -3  4% 3 - 10 2 - 2 D -10 D -4 F B+ C D -6 C+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 256 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 70 28% -6  6% 4 - 10 3 - 2 C +1 B+ +9 C- C+ A D- -8 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 269 @Lindenwood W 82 - 74 30% +5  88% 5 - 10 4 - 2 B- +5 A- +10 B A- D+ D+ -4 F D+ A
 Thu, Jan 15 321 Eastern Illinois W 74 - 63 68% -4  7% 6 - 10 5 - 2 C- -2 C+ +2 C B+ C C- -3 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 364 Western Illinois W 86 - 79 89% +6  87% 7 - 10 6 - 2 F+ -15 B- +4 C- D A- F -19 F D F
 Thu, Jan 22 224 @Southeast Missouri St. L 65 - 70 23% -5  13% 7 - 11 6 - 3 D+ -6 D- -6 F D+ A+ C+ +0 F+ A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 199 @Tennessee St. L 63 - 70 19% +2  63% 7 - 12 6 - 4 D+ -6 F -12 F A- C B+ +6 D C A-
 Sat, Jan 31 312 @Tennessee Tech L 77 - 87 41% -8  10% 7 - 13 6 - 5 F+ -16 C +1 B+ F C+ F -17 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 3 231 @Tennessee Martin L 52 - 55 23% -1  25% 7 - 14 6 - 6 C- -4 F -13 D C F A- +8 D C+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 269 Lindenwood L 74 - 79 52% -0  36% 7 - 15 6 - 7 D- -14 C- -1 F A+ A F -14 D- D D
 Sat, Feb 7 256 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 71 50% -9  0% 7 - 16 6 - 8 F -18 F -12 F F+ A D- -7 F+ A D
 Thu, Feb 12 364 @Western Illinois W 77 - 58 77% +7  82% 8 - 16 7 - 8 C+ +3 D -6 F+ D+ A A +9 D+ A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 321 @Eastern Illinois L 72 - 78 45% -2  25% 8 - 17 7 - 9 D- -13 C +0 D C+ B F -14 C F F
 Thu, Feb 19 231 Tennessee Martin W 67 - 65 44% -2  27% 9 - 17 8 - 9 C- -5 B- +4 C+ A+ C- F+ -9 B- D- F
 Sat, Feb 21 224 Southeast Missouri St. L 65 - 70 43% -1  40% 9 - 18 8 - 10 D- -12 F+ -9 F F+ A- C- -2 D+ A A-
 Thu, Feb 26 282 Morehead St. L 70 - 76 55% -9  3% 9 - 19 8 - 11 F+ -16 D- -7 F+ C+ B F+ -10 D+ F D
 Sat, Feb 28 336 Southern Indiana W 89 - 70 74% +15  90% 10 - 19 9 - 11 C+ +4 A +13 A+ C B D- -8 A+ F F
 Wed, Mar 4 269 Lindenwood L 62 - 72 41% -8  1% 10 - 20 F+ -16 F -20 F F D- B +4 A+ C F
Totals 10 - 20 9 - 11 -8 D+ -4 F C- F D+ -4 C F+ F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ B- F+ C C- 33% 62% 33% F D+ C C- C- D+ F F+ F D+ D- A- F+ D- 40% 15% 46% D D- F+ B C- C+ C C+ C+
1.02 61% 30% 34% -2 -2 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 18% .23 66% .15 1.14 66% 32% 38% +5 +1 1.14 36% 0.9 .34 18% .30 71% .16
Nov
10		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D D F A+ D- 52% 20% 28% C+ D D+ A+ B- F D- F F+ F F C+ F F 30% 16% 54% D+ F D+ F F C F F F
1.04 54% 20% 43% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.5 .39 22% .28 67% .18 1.32 73% 38% 44% +13 0 1.28 33% 1.7 .56 16% .39 78% .31
Nov
12		 Marquette F C+ F B+ F+ 36% 30% 34% D- F+ C F F F C+ F D- F F A+ F F 59% 4% 37% F+ F F A+ B D+ C A B-
0.73 59% 0% 38% -9 -1 0.81 31% 0.5 .14 30% .28 54% .15 1.33 70% 0% 47% +13 +4 1.35 44% 0.6 .25 13% .31 61% .19
Nov
15		 Ball St. D+ A F A+ B 41% 34% 24% D- B- A+ A+ A+ F D F F B C- D C- F+ 41% 11% 48% D- F+ A+ F C+ A+ F B- F+
1.01 71% 21% 50% +5 -2 1.10 46% 1.5 .69 34% .25 45% .11 0.92 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 14% 1.5 .21 22% .36 68% .25
Nov
18		 Murray St. D+ D+ F C- F 48% 40% 13% F+ F A C+ A F C+ B- C+ F A+ F F F 38% 13% 50% D+ F D- F F D F+ C+ D-
1.03 52% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.83 43% 1.1 .46 21% .31 75% .23 1.34 44% 83% 46% +9 +1 1.23 37% 1.4 .50 14% .40 74% .30
Nov
21		 Texas St. F F F D+ F 56% 18% 27% B- F C+ F D F B- D- C B- F B- D- F 51% 24% 24% F F F A+ A+ A+ D- A+ B-
0.87 44% 25% 33% -10 +2 0.84 32% 0.7 .21 23% .36 67% .24 1.01 74% 36% 36% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.2 .07 26% .34 56% .19
Nov
29		 Southern Illinois B- A+ A+ F A 34% 23% 43% C- A B- F D+ F D- F F D- D F F F 49% 17% 34% F F D- A C+ A+ F A D-
1.02 81% 55% 25% +6 -1 1.13 31% 0.8 .24 25% .23 45% .10 1.16 65% 86% 43% +16 +1 1.37 35% 0.8 .26 23% .41 60% .25
Dec
3		 Central Arkansas F F F F F 37% 24% 39% D- F C- F D- F F F F D F F+ F 33% 0% 67% F F F A+ B- B+ B- C- C+
0.66 44% 17% 26% -15 -1 0.71 26% 0.9 .24 29% .18 22% .04 1.19 72% 39% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.7 .25 20% .24 71% .17
Dec
6		 Arkansas St. C- A+ D A+ A+ 27% 38% 35% F A F A+ F B D- F F F F A C- F 36% 7% 57% D- F C- D- D D- A+ F A+
1.09 73% 33% 53% +12 -3 1.20 9% 1.3 .13 13% .27 59% .16 1.26 80% 25% 34% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.2 .44 17% .15 100% .15
Dec
9		 West Virginia C- C F C D 27% 37% 37% F F+ B+ C+ B+ B- B+ F C+ F F+ F F F 41% 4% 54% F+ F F A+ C C C A+ B+
0.92 54% 17% 33% -9 -3 0.78 33% 1.0 .33 18% .31 63% .19 1.43 68% 100% 56% +25 +2 1.57 48% 0.7 .35 16% .32 53% .17
Dec
16		 Morehead St. F B- F F F 38% 32% 30% F F F A+ D F A C A B- D- A+ F D 57% 22% 22% F D- F B D+ A+ F D+ F
0.86 61% 27% 21% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.7 .29 19% .41 72% .30 1.05 65% 20% 40% +2 +1 1.09 42% 0.8 .35 24% .44 76% .34
Dec
18		 Southern Indiana C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% C A+ B+ F F F B+ F C B D+ A+ D D 38% 15% 48% F+ D- A F D+ C- C- A+ A-
1.14 74% 50% 47% +17 +1 1.37 39% 0.2 .06 25% .38 63% .24 0.92 56% 0% 35% -6 +1 0.92 21% 1.4 .29 16% .32 44% .14
Jan
1		 Tennessee Tech C- A+ B- D B+ 28% 32% 40% F B- F+ B- D- D A+ F B+ A A A+ A A+ 23% 21% 56% B- A+ F A+ D+ A D F+ F+
1.14 92% 40% 32% +9 -2 1.15 23% 1.3 .29 16% .39 68% .26 0.86 45% 10% 26% -16 -1 0.69 44% 0.8 .33 24% .33 82% .27
Jan
3		 Tennessee St. D C+ F C- F+ 42% 27% 31% F+ F B- A- B+ C A+ C- A D D A+ A B 49% 25% 26% F C+ D F F D+ D- D- F+
1.06 60% 23% 33% -4 -1 0.94 33% 1.2 .41 19% .48 72% .35 1.13 64% 14% 27% -6 0 0.91 35% 1.3 .45 15% .33 81% .27
Jan
8		 SIU Edwardsville B+ B+ F+ C C+ 29% 40% 31% F C- A F+ C+ A A+ D A D- B D- F F 23% 28% 49% B- F F C+ F A+ F D+ F
1.16 64% 32% 33% -1 -3 0.94 42% 0.8 .34 11% .45 68% .31 1.12 50% 42% 43% +6 -2 1.09 45% 1.0 .45 26% .34 69% .24
Jan
10		 Lindenwood A- A+ B- D A- 42% 34% 25% F B A+ D A- D+ F A+ D+ D+ F+ F C F 43% 12% 45% D- F D C D+ A B F C-
1.19 77% 39% 31% +7 -2 1.13 47% 0.9 .43 19% .25 86% .22 1.08 67% 50% 32% +4 +1 1.12 34% 1.1 .38 23% .27 79% .21
Jan
15		 Eastern Illinois C+ A F B- C+ 32% 30% 39% F C A C B+ C C B+ B- C- A C F D- 31% 31% 38% C+ D D F F A+ A- F+ B
1.15 71% 31% 35% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.1 .47 19% .32 82% .27 0.98 43% 36% 41% -1 -2 0.96 30% 1.6 .47 26% .21 80% .17
Jan
17		 Western Illinois B- A+ F A+ C 31% 26% 43% F C- D- B- D A- F+ A+ B- F F D- A F 39% 26% 35% D+ F F A+ D F F C F+
1.27 76% 14% 43% +6 -1 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 10% .25 100% .25 1.17 71% 43% 26% +2 -1 1.06 44% 0.7 .29 12% .39 65% .25
Jan
22		 Southeast Missouri St. D- F F A+ F 37% 30% 33% F+ F D- B+ D+ A+ F D- F C+ F+ B- C+ F+ 43% 12% 45% D- F+ A A+ A+ C- D D D-
0.96 35% 25% 44% -7 -1 0.85 22% 1.3 .27 12% .28 71% .20 1.03 67% 33% 32% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.7 .14 16% .37 71% .26
Jan
29		 Tennessee St. F D F F F 28% 30% 43% F F C+ A+ A- C F A+ F B+ D A- C- D+ 43% 23% 34% F+ D B+ F C A- F A+ D-
0.91 53% 19% 22% -15 -2 0.69 33% 1.4 .44 19% .16 89% .14 1.01 63% 30% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.2 .33 20% .42 61% .25
Jan
31		 Tennessee Tech C B A+ B A- 48% 28% 24% C- B+ F+ F F C+ D B D+ F F F F F 44% 7% 49% F F F A+ F A+ F F F
1.13 65% 53% 38% +9 0 1.20 23% 0.7 .15 13% .25 80% .20 1.28 68% 67% 43% +13 +2 1.33 60% 0.7 .43 31% .45 86% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Tennessee Martin F C- C F D 41% 30% 28% C- D D A- C F F D F A- F B B- D 20% 8% 73% D+ D C B- C+ A+ A A+ A+
0.84 58% 36% 23% -5 -1 0.89 28% 1.1 .31 27% .07 67% .04 0.89 75% 33% 31% 0 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .29 27% .22 50% .11
Feb
5		 Lindenwood C- D+ B+ F F 34% 26% 40% F+ F B- A+ A+ A D+ C+ D+ F A- A F F 45% 25% 29% B- D- F A- D D F+ C D-
1.09 56% 43% 19% -8 -1 0.83 36% 1.4 .51 13% .31 72% .22 1.17 48% 23% 53% 0 0 1.02 41% 0.9 .38 16% .37 67% .25
Feb
7		 SIU Edwardsville F A F A D+ 11% 54% 35% F F C F F+ A F D+ F D- F A+ F F+ 33% 27% 39% C- F+ A+ C+ A D C- F F+
0.90 67% 23% 40% -4 -6 0.81 33% 0.6 .20 12% .17 70% .12 1.05 76% 14% 40% +3 -1 1.06 17% 1.0 .17 16% .27 87% .23
Feb
12		 Western Illinois D D F A+ F+ 42% 27% 31% D- F+ D+ C D+ A F F F A F A+ A+ C 43% 13% 43% F D+ A+ A+ A+ D- C A+ A-
1.09 56% 19% 44% -1 -1 0.98 31% 1.2 .36 10% .20 54% .11 0.82 65% 14% 22% -8 +1 0.89 13% 0.6 .08 14% .30 44% .13
Feb
14		 Eastern Illinois C F A- B- C- 33% 33% 33% F D C+ C C+ B C F F+ F A+ A F C+ 46% 25% 29% F C F A F F F C+ F
1.08 47% 47% 35% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 17% .32 61% .20 1.17 41% 25% 43% -7 0 0.88 49% 0.8 .39 12% .51 73% .38
Feb
19		 Tennessee Martin B- A+ F A+ B+ 23% 47% 30% F C+ C A+ A+ C- B+ F C F+ C- A+ C+ B- 31% 18% 51% C B- F A- D- F A+ D A
1.12 80% 25% 46% +5 -4 1.02 33% 1.6 .53 20% .38 61% .23 1.09 60% 11% 32% -6 0 0.90 53% 0.7 .38 15% .20 70% .14
Feb
21		 Southeast Missouri St. F+ B- F F F+ 30% 44% 26% F F D+ F F+ A- F A+ D+ C- F B A F+ 27% 33% 40% A+ D+ F+ A+ A A- F C F+
0.95 60% 32% 23% -6 -4 0.82 25% 0.8 .19 13% .32 89% .29 1.03 92% 31% 26% +2 -2 1.02 33% 0.6 .21 21% .41 68% .28
Feb
26		 Morehead St. D- A D+ F D+ 26% 38% 36% F F+ D+ B C+ B C+ F D+ F+ F A+ B+ C 48% 15% 37% F D+ D- F F D D B+ C-
1.08 69% 37% 28% -1 -3 0.94 33% 1.1 .36 12% .34 63% .21 1.18 73% 0% 29% -1 +1 1.02 39% 1.5 .58 15% .35 68% .24
Feb
28		 Southern Indiana A A- C- A+ A+ 35% 27% 38% F+ A+ F+ A+ C B F D+ F D- A A+ A+ A+ 39% 28% 33% C+ A+ F F F F F F F
1.33 67% 36% 60% +17 -1 1.35 26% 1.3 .33 13% .24 71% .17 1.04 38% 13% 22% -21 -1 0.59 42% 1.0 .44 9% .43 77% .33
Mar
4		 Lindenwood F B- B- F D- 29% 45% 25% F F C+ F F D- C+ F D- B A A+ A+ A+ 57% 17% 26% F A+ C- C+ C F F C+ F
0.80 63% 40% 14% -5 -4 0.84 33% 0.4 .15 21% .36 55% .20 0.93 43% 11% 14% -21 +2 0.64 31% 1.1 .33 12% .63 65% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 100.0% 100.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%