Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.0 310
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 312
Pace 61.9 341
Improvement +0.7 154

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #332 F+ D- C C- C
Defense C- #253 D+ D B- C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 191 50% 350 -3.4 294
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 168 34% 312 -0.7 217
Three Pointers 41% 187 29% 350 -3.3 294
1st FG Attempt 0.87 356 -7.4 356
Second Chance 25.4% 319 0.87 347 0.22 347
Turnovers 16.6% 162
Freethrows 0.29 233 71% 238 0.21 237
Total Offense -6.5 332

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 286 64% 316 +0.1 177
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 179 37% 130 +0.3 164
Three Pointers 44% 80 36% 288 -3.4 319
1st FG Attempt 1.08 282 -3.0 282
Second Chance 34.6% 320 1.05 220 0.36 304
Turnovers 18.5% 86
Freethrows 0.28 93 79% 364 0.22 188
Total Defense -2.5 253

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.1 201 -0.3 120
Shot Type Accuracy -7.2 362 +3.2 300
Possession Length 19.2 340 17.4 200
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 355 0.14 91
Improvement -0.8 #235 +1.5 #102

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 2% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 25% 10% 30%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 26.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 48 - 98 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 290 Louisiana W 75 - 64 56% +2  75% 1 - 0 C +1 C+ +2 A- D+ C+ C -1 C- D B-
 Tue, Nov 11 33 @Wisconsin L 55 - 86 2% -19  0% 1 - 1 D- -14 F -13 F+ D+ F C- -2 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 301 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 68 58% -2  33% 1 - 2 F+ -17 F -16 F F+ D- C -1 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 197 @Indiana St. L 52 - 70 18% -2  60% 1 - 3 F+ -17 F -18 F D- F C -1 C- C B-
 Fri, Nov 28 208 Monmouth L 73 - 80 27% -4  17% 1 - 4 D -10 C+ +2 B F A F -13 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 319 @Lafayette L 37 - 55 42% -4  21% 1 - 5 F -25 F -35 F F F+ B+ +7 A+ F+ D-
 Sun, Nov 30 303 Le Moyne W 96 - 85 47% +0  42% 2 - 5 C+ +3 A+ +20 D+ A+ D+ F -17 F B F
 Wed, Dec 3 273 @Evansville L 52 - 64 29% -1  25% 2 - 6 F+ -15 F -21 F F F+ B +5 C+ C+ B+
 Tue, Dec 9 193 South Dakota St. L 64 - 68 36% -0  54% 2 - 7 D -9 D- -7 F C A C- -2 D D+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 192 @Campbell L 64 - 69 17% +1  46% 2 - 8 C- -4 F -13 F D- D- A- +9 A- A- C-
 Sat, Dec 20 87 Miami (OH) L 77 - 86 13% -3  28% 2 - 9 0 - 1 D+ -6 C +1 B- F A+ D -6 D+ C- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 202 @Buffalo L 72 - 85 19% -14  1% 2 - 10 0 - 2 D- -13 C -0 F+ B- D+ F -14 F F B+
 Tue, Jan 6 231 Eastern Michigan L 52 - 74 42% -13  20% 2 - 11 0 - 3 F -29 F -14 F F A F -20 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 183 @Massachusetts L 71 - 79 16% -3  15% 2 - 12 0 - 4 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ D- B+ D+ -4 F A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 72 @Akron L 77 - 87 4% -11  0% 2 - 13 0 - 5 C +1 B +6 B D+ A D -6 C- C+ F+
 Fri, Jan 16 199 Ohio W 76 - 71 37% +8  99% 3 - 13 1 - 5 C -1 C +1 C- D- B- C -1 C- C B-
 Tue, Jan 20 296 @Central Michigan W 68 - 67 34% +5  82% 4 - 13 2 - 5 C- -4 C +2 C- F A+ D+ -5 F C B
 Sat, Jan 24 314 Northern Illinois W 58 - 53 62% +6  97% 5 - 13 3 - 5 D+ -7 F -11 F+ D- A- B +5 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 31 165 @Toledo L 55 - 73 14% -12  2% 5 - 14 3 - 6 F+ -15 F -20 F F D B- +4 C B+ B+
 Tue, Feb 3 158 @Bowling Green L 52 - 77 14% -13  0% 5 - 15 3 - 7 F -22 F -14 F D+ B+ F -12 F C A
 Sat, Feb 7 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 73 - 68 60% +8  99% 6 - 15 D+ -7 D- -8 F C F C+ +1 A+ F C-
 Wed, Feb 11 202 Buffalo L 53 - 63 37% -5  3% 6 - 16 3 - 8 F+ -16 F -18 F D- F C+ +1 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 147 Kent St. L 69 - 76 26%
 Tue, Feb 17 199 @Ohio L 66 - 75 18%
 Fri, Feb 20 72 Akron L 67 - 81 10%
 Tue, Feb 24 183 Massachusetts L 69 - 74 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 314 @Northern Illinois L 65 - 68 38%
 Tue, Mar 3 295 @Western Michigan L 69 - 73 34%
 Fri, Mar 6 296 Central Michigan W 70 - 68 57%
Totals 8 - 21 5 - 13 -9 D -6 F+ D- C C- -3 D+ D B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D F+ F+ 38% 21% 41% C F+ D F+ D- C C- C- C- C- D C+ D+ D 35% 21% 44% C+ D+ D C- D B- B- F C
0.99 50% 34% 29% -7 0 0.87 25% 0.9 .22 17% .29 71% .21 1.12 64% 37% 36% +3 0 1.08 35% 1.0 .36 19% .28 79% .23
Nov
3		 Louisiana C+ C+ F A+ B+ 58% 13% 30% B+ A- D+ C- D+ C+ A+ D A+ C F+ D B+ C- 22% 31% 47% C+ C- C F D B- B+ A+ A-
1.17 61% 0% 58% +8 +2 1.23 29% 1.0 .29 17% .53 68% .36 1.00 64% 44% 29% 0 -3 0.96 26% 1.1 .29 19% .17 56% .10
Nov
11		 Wisconsin F D- F C F 40% 17% 44% B+ F+ C- D- D+ F A+ F B C- C- A+ F D 37% 2% 61% D- D F B+ F A+ A+ F A+
0.80 47% 0% 33% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.9 .18 20% .39 57% .22 1.26 63% 0% 42% +9 +2 1.24 47% 1.0 .47 22% .15 100% .15
Nov
15		 Arkansas Little Rock F D- C+ D+ F 41% 11% 48% C+ F F A+ F+ D- A D B+ C F A+ F F 41% 34% 24% C- F F F F A+ C- A+ B
0.92 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 14% 1.5 .21 22% .36 68% .25 1.01 71% 21% 50% +5 -2 1.10 46% 1.5 .69 34% .25 45% .11
Nov
22		 Indiana St. F F A- F F 34% 30% 36% D- F C+ F D- F F A F C D+ F B D+ 42% 8% 50% C+ C- F A+ C B- A- F C
0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08 1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17
Nov
28		 Monmouth C+ B- C- A+ B+ 33% 20% 47% D+ B F F F A F F+ F F B- C- F F 39% 27% 35% C F F D- F F+ D+ B+ C-
1.10 61% 36% 42% +7 0 1.15 24% 0.7 .16 15% .11 67% .07 1.20 53% 38% 47% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 14% .33 68% .23
Nov
29		 Lafayette F F C F F 31% 18% 51% C F D F F F+ D- F+ D- B+ A A+ A+ A+ 43% 28% 30% A- A+ C F F+ D- F F F
0.60 29% 38% 13% -25 0 0.51 28% 0.4 .12 18% .24 67% .16 0.89 45% 15% 14% -21 -1 0.60 26% 1.2 .32 13% .37 85% .32
Nov
30		 Le Moyne A+ C F C+ D 35% 16% 49% C D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ D+ A+ F F A- F F 25% 15% 60% B F D+ A+ B F C- F F+
1.42 56% 13% 36% -3 0 0.96 51% 1.5 .74 16% .50 71% .35 1.26 75% 29% 48% +16 0 1.33 28% 0.7 .20 15% .35 85% .30
Dec
3		 Evansville F F F F F 31% 25% 44% C- F F F F F+ D+ C- D+ B F D- A+ C+ 26% 23% 51% C C+ D A- C+ B+ D- D- F+
0.77 47% 25% 29% -10 -1 0.79 22% 0.4 .10 21% .26 71% .19 0.95 75% 45% 25% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 22% .35 78% .27
Dec
9		 South Dakota St. D- B- F F F 39% 16% 45% B- F B- D- C A B+ D B- C- C B+ F D 49% 18% 33% D D D- C D+ C+ A- D B
1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25 1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15
Dec
14		 Campbell F F A+ F F 47% 26% 26% C- F C F D- D- B+ D B- A- D- B- A+ B+ 35% 24% 41% A+ A- F A+ A- C- F A+ C
0.92 44% 50% 14% -11 0 0.79 32% 0.8 .26 20% .36 70% .25 0.99 65% 33% 20% -7 -1 0.86 42% 0.6 .24 17% .50 55% .28
Dec
20		 Miami (OH) C B+ A D+ B 35% 30% 35% D B- F D F A+ C C+ C+ D B+ A+ F D 33% 21% 46% B D+ B F C- A- F+ F F
1.10 68% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.11 13% 0.8 .09 10% .29 78% .22 1.23 56% 20% 55% +10 0 1.21 20% 1.4 .28 20% .39 95% .38
Jan
3		 Buffalo C F F B F 31% 16% 53% D+ F+ B C+ B- D+ A+ A A+ F F F F F 43% 9% 48% F+ F F F F B+ C F F
1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36 1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33
Jan
6		 Eastern Michigan F F D- D+ F 43% 20% 36% C F F+ F F A C- A+ B- F C- F F F 36% 17% 48% D- F F D+ F A+ A+ F A
0.90 42% 33% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 0.3 .06 12% .30 87% .26 1.29 60% 57% 55% +19 0 1.40 48% 1.0 .48 24% .14 83% .11
Jan
10		 Massachusetts D+ D F B D 42% 15% 42% C+ D+ F B D- B+ F+ C+ D- D+ F B D- F 33% 20% 47% C+ F B A+ A+ D+ F C- F
1.03 55% 25% 36% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 72% .22 1.15 87% 33% 38% +12 0 1.24 29% 0.4 .13 17% .51 69% .35
Jan
13		 Akron B C+ A+ D B 40% 14% 46% B- B F A+ D+ A B- A- B+ D C- F C- C- 38% 7% 55% D C- A- F C+ F+ C- F D
1.12 60% 71% 30% +3 +1 1.10 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 79% .26 1.26 62% 75% 35% +5 +2 1.16 27% 1.6 .42 12% .26 88% .23
Jan
16		 Ohio C C C C- C- 36% 23% 41% D+ C- D- D- D- B- A+ A- A+ C D+ F+ B+ D 33% 39% 29% A+ C- C+ C- C B- D+ F D-
1.14 56% 40% 33% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 15% .55 81% .44 1.06 63% 53% 29% +5 -3 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 18% .35 79% .27
Jan
20		 Central Michigan C C F B+ C- 41% 22% 37% D+ C- C F F A+ F B- F D+ A+ C- F F 33% 27% 40% C+ F F+ A C B B+ A+ A+
1.15 60% 27% 39% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 8% .20 73% .15 1.14 33% 42% 61% +9 -1 1.18 34% 0.9 .31 20% .21 50% .11
Jan
24		 Northern Illinois F C+ F F F 49% 12% 40% B F+ F A+ D- A- C F D B D+ F A+ A+ 27% 18% 56% A A+ B- F F D- C- F D
0.97 62% 20% 24% -6 +2 0.93 17% 1.4 .24 13% .35 61% .21 0.89 58% 50% 8% -19 0 0.62 29% 1.3 .38 18% .35 76% .27
Jan
31		 Toledo F F C- F F 43% 18% 39% C F D- F F D A+ C- A+ B- F C C+ C- 33% 24% 43% C+ C A C B+ B+ B- F C
0.81 42% 38% 24% -13 +1 0.77 28% 0.4 .10 21% .50 70% .35 1.08 69% 42% 33% +4 -1 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 19% .26 86% .22
Feb
3		 Bowling Green F C- C- F F 34% 23% 43% D- F F A+ D+ B+ C F F F F A+ F F 42% 21% 37% B+ F D B C A C F F
0.83 56% 36% 15% -13 -1 0.74 16% 1.5 .24 16% .32 47% .15 1.23 78% 22% 56% +17 0 1.37 32% 0.7 .23 22% .31 93% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Louisiana Monroe D- F A C- F 45% 24% 31% D+ F C C C F A- A A C+ F B+ A+ A 29% 31% 40% A A+ D- F F C- F F F
1.05 45% 50% 33% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 20% .33 78% .25 0.98 67% 31% 12% -13 -2 0.71 28% 1.3 .38 17% .63 83% .52
Feb
11		 Buffalo F F F D F 45% 11% 43% B F C- F D- F F+ B D- C+ D+ C B B- 43% 12% 45% D- C+ D- B- D+ B C- F F+
0.90 45% 20% 32% -9 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15 1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.7 1.5 0.1 2.2 7th
8th 0.9 5.0 0.9 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 2.8 12.5 5.0 0.2 20.5 9th
10th 0.7 13.4 8.1 0.5 22.8 10th
11th 7.6 11.9 1.1 0.0 20.6 11th
12th 2.2 12.5 2.3 0.0 17.0 12th
13th 5.7 3.2 0.1 9.0 13th
Total 8.0 24.1 30.5 22.7 11.1 3.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.6% 0.6
8-10 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
7-11 11.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.1
6-12 22.7% 22.7
5-13 30.5% 30.5
4-14 24.1% 24.1
3-15 8.0% 8.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.0%