Gardner-Webb
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -17.7 360
Results Rating -17.7 358
Consistency 0.14 124
Pace 72.8 66
Improvement +3.2 69

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ 355 D D- D- D- B-
Defense F+ 358 F+ F+ D+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 79 D 53% 307 +0.1 181
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 231 F+ 30% 359 -2.9 314
Three Pointers 41% 172 D+ 31% 293 -1.5 235
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 78 D- -5.1 340
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 317
Second Chance F+ 22.7% 348 C- 0.98 256 D- 0.22 347
Opponents' Steals D- 11.6% 337
Other Turnovers D+ 8.2% 296
Turnovers D- 19.7% 334
Freethrows D 0.26 314 D 68% 310 D- 0.18 334
Total Offense F+ -9.2 355

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots F 29% 359 C- 12.2% 258
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 185 D 7.2% 309
Three Pointers C- 81% 249 B+ 0.2% 23
Total F+ 45% 345 D+ 6.5% 280


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 104 F+ 67% 359 +5.6 347
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 297 B- 36% 99 -1.5 65
Three Pointers 41% 154 D- 37% 323 +2.4 299
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 298 F+ +5.4 352
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 349
Second Chance F+ 35.9% 344 D+ 1.11 291 F+ 0.40 346
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.6% 240
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 277
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 270
Freethrows C+ 0.29 147 C- 74% 261 C+ 0.21 157
Total Defense F+ -8.5 358

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 271 D 7.1% 323
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 180 D+ 3.4% 265
Three Pointers D- 90% 338 D 0.2% 316
Total D+ 61% 301 D 3.6% 326

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 128 16.8 90
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 167 0.19 258
Consistency 0.12 155 0.10 19
Improvement +0.4 164 +2.8 57

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 362 360 360
Results Rating Rank 358 357 357
Conference Record 1 - 15 1 - 15 1 - 15
Conference Finish 9 9 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 2% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
First Four0% 2% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 70 - 15
Quad 42 - 132 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 61 @Minnesota L 60 - 87 1% -25  0% 0 - 1 F+ -15 F -11 F F C- C- -3 F D+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 40 @Clemson L 59 - 97 0% -21  0% 0 - 2 F -21 D -6 C- C- F F -16 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 241 @Elon L 84 - 95 7% -16  1% 0 - 3 D- -13 C- -1 C D- D+ F -11 F F B+
 Tue, Nov 18 90 @DePaul L 62 - 93 1% -21  0% 0 - 4 F -22 F -13 F+ C- D- D -5 F A C+
 Sat, Nov 22 135 @Richmond L 67 - 102 3% -28  1% 0 - 5 F -30 F -11 B- F F F -17 F F D
 Wed, Nov 26 141 Navy L 51 - 84 5% -16  0% 0 - 6 F -32 F -19 F F+ F F -15 D F B
 Fri, Nov 28 287 SE Louisiana L 68 - 76 16% +2  63% 0 - 7 F+ -15 F+ -9 D+ C+ F D -6 C B- D
 Sat, Nov 29 106 @UNC Wilmington L 62 - 88 2% -12  18% 0 - 8 F -19 F+ -9 C F F F -10 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 204 @Queens L 74 - 107 5% -14  0% 0 - 9 F -32 F+ -10 F A B- F -21 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 6 257 Georgia Southern L 84 - 88 19% -3  33% 0 - 10 D- -12 D+ -3 C+ D- D+ F+ -9 D- C- F
 Mon, Dec 15 240 Wofford L 57 - 83 17% -11  7% 0 - 11 F -34 F -24 F F F F+ -9 C F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 14 @Tennessee L 52 - 94 0% -26  11% 0 - 12 F -20 F -12 D D C- F+ -9 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 31 250 Charleston Southern L 79 - 89 18% +1  47% 0 - 13 0 - 1 F -18 D+ -4 F B+ D+ F -13 D- F D
 Sat, Jan 3 145 @Winthrop L 77 - 88 3% +5  72% 0 - 14 0 - 2 D+ -7 B- +5 A- F A+ F -13 F A D-
 Wed, Jan 7 94 @High Point L 49 - 104 2% -38  0% 0 - 15 0 - 3 F -46 F -31 F F+ F F+ -9 C- F D
 Wed, Jan 14 243 Radford L 80 - 89 17% -5  28% 0 - 16 0 - 4 F+ -17 C- -1 D+ C- A- F -16 D D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 271 Presbyterian L 55 - 92 21% -20  0% 0 - 17 0 - 5 F -46 F -24 F F+ F F -22 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 253 @Longwood L 56 - 91 8% -17  2% 0 - 18 0 - 6 F -37 F -19 F D F F -18 F F D
 Fri, Jan 23 307 South Carolina Upstate W 67 - 65 28% -3  20% 1 - 18 1 - 6 D -10 D- -7 D- D+ D- C- -2 C+ B D+
 Thu, Jan 29 246 @UNC Asheville L 50 - 69 8% -12  0% 1 - 19 1 - 7 F -21 F -17 F D+ F D- -7 F C D
 Wed, Feb 4 253 Longwood L 66 - 86 19% -9  0% 1 - 20 1 - 8 F -28 F -13 D+ F F F -15 F A+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 271 @Presbyterian L 62 - 68 9% +0  51% 1 - 21 1 - 9 D -9 D- -8 B- F D C- -2 D- B- B-
 Thu, Feb 12 145 Winthrop L 85 - 103 8% -13  3% 1 - 22 1 - 10 F -20 C +0 A D F F -19 F F C+
 Sat, Feb 14 94 High Point L 87 - 112 4% -15  1% 1 - 23 1 - 11 F -22 C +1 A+ F A+ F -21 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 17 250 @Charleston Southern L 66 - 75 8% -10  0% 1 - 24 1 - 12 D -11 F -14 C F D+ B +4 A D- F
 Thu, Feb 19 243 @Radford L 70 - 82 7% -12  8% 1 - 25 1 - 13 D- -14 D -6 C- C+ D D- -8 C- F B-
 Thu, Feb 26 246 UNC Asheville L 71 - 77 18% -1  39% 1 - 26 1 - 14 D- -14 C +1 C- C- A+ F -16 F+ F C-
 Sat, Feb 28 307 @South Carolina Upstate L 61 - 71 13% -7  10% 1 - 27 1 - 15 F+ -16 F -14 F+ D- D- C -1 C D- F+
 Wed, Mar 4 307 South Carolina Upstate W 65 - 64 20% -1  34% 2 - 27 D+ -8 D- -6 D- B F C -1 C- F A+
 Fri, Mar 6 94 High Point L 70 - 94 2%
Totals 2 - 28 1 - 15 -18 F+ -9 D+ D- B- F+ -8 D+ D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ D F+ D+ D- 43% 33% 41% B- D F+ C- D- D- D D D- F+ F+ B- D- F+ 42% 17% 41% D F+ F+ D+ F+ D+ C+ C- C+
0.95 53% 30% 31% -5 +1 0.93 23% 1.0 .22 20% .26 68% .18 1.21 67% 36% 37% +5 +1 1.15 36% 1.1 .40 15% .29 74% .19
Nov
3		 Minnesota F D F B- F 37% 29% 33% C- F C- F F C- A+ F A+ C- F A+ C- F 52% 13% 35% D- F F B+ D+ A- F B- F
0.83 53% 7% 35% -11 -1 0.78 25% 0.5 .11 19% .47 59% .28 1.21 84% 17% 35% +11 +2 1.29 38% 0.9 .34 19% .52 67% .34
Nov
7		 Clemson D F A+ C- D- 48% 9% 43% A+ C- D B- C- F A+ F A+ F F A A+ B- 41% 5% 55% F+ C+ F D F F B+ A A-
0.84 38% 50% 32% -10 +2 0.86 18% 1.0 .18 23% .48 65% .32 1.39 81% 33% 26% +2 +2 1.11 46% 1.1 .51 4% .30 65% .19
Nov
15		 Elon C- A B- F+ C 42% 20% 38% C+ C B+ F D- D+ D F F+ F D- C+ F F 33% 12% 55% B F C- F F B+ F+ A- D+
1.11 68% 42% 30% +3 0 1.08 40% 0.7 .29 17% .24 60% .14 1.26 65% 33% 50% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.4 .47 20% .38 65% .25
Nov
18		 DePaul F F F C- F 35% 23% 42% C+ F+ C+ F+ C- D- F+ F F D F F B F 43% 18% 38% D+ F A+ C- A C+ A F B-
0.78 40% 23% 33% -10 -1 0.81 30% 0.8 .23 23% .24 53% .13 1.17 73% 64% 30% +9 +1 1.22 20% 1.2 .23 18% .24 81% .20
Nov
22		 Richmond F B+ F A+ B+ 11% 36% 53% F B- F D- F F F F F F F A- F F 32% 29% 39% C F F C+ F D B+ B A-
0.89 67% 21% 46% +5 -4 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 23% .19 64% .12 1.36 84% 29% 48% +14 -2 1.27 39% 1.0 .39 12% .27 72% .20
Nov
26		 Navy F C+ A- F F 27% 23% 50% C F F C+ F+ F C- C C- F F B D- F+ 28% 26% 46% B D F F F B C F D
0.77 62% 45% 17% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 24% .24 75% .18 1.26 69% 33% 38% +5 -1 1.09 43% 1.6 .70 21% .34 83% .29
Nov
28		 SE Louisiana F+ C F C+ D 38% 20% 43% C+ D+ F A+ C+ F A+ D+ A D F C A+ C 29% 22% 49% C C D A B- D F F F
0.95 60% 25% 35% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 29% .49 72% .36 1.06 79% 36% 21% -4 -1 0.92 31% 0.7 .22 15% .53 78% .41
Nov
29		 UNC Wilmington F+ F+ F A D+ 35% 14% 51% A- C D- F F F D+ B- C- F F C+ F F 32% 21% 47% C- F A+ F C+ F A+ D A+
0.90 50% 0% 38% -5 +1 0.94 20% 0.5 .10 20% .24 77% .18 1.27 72% 33% 44% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.4 .34 10% .18 73% .13
Dec
3		 Queens F+ F F+ F+ F 40% 24% 36% D+ F B A A B- F+ A+ C F F F F F 36% 19% 45% B- F D+ F F D+ B A+ A+
1.01 27% 31% 30% -16 0 0.69 38% 1.3 .49 14% .28 89% .25 1.46 71% 64% 50% +20 0 1.43 31% 1.7 .52 14% .27 59% .16
Dec
6		 Georgia Southern D+ D+ F A+ C- 60% 6% 33% A C+ F B D- D+ A+ A- A+ F+ B F F D 51% 7% 42% F D- B+ F C- F F B+ D-
1.12 55% 0% 44% +1 +3 1.10 24% 1.1 .28 20% .47 82% .38 1.18 50% 50% 39% 0 +3 1.07 23% 1.4 .31 11% .42 68% .28
Dec
15		 Wofford F D- A F F 48% 22% 30% C- F F D- F F C+ A+ B+ F+ B- C- C- C- 39% 20% 41% B C F F F C+ C- A- C+
0.82 50% 50% 14% -10 +1 0.83 13% 1.0 .13 23% .32 88% .28 1.20 53% 40% 35% -1 0 1.00 49% 1.2 .57 16% .34 65% .22
Dec
21		 Tennessee F B+ F F D 30% 19% 52% C+ D F B D C- F F F F+ F C- F+ F 46% 9% 45% F F B- C B- F A+ B A+
0.74 63% 10% 25% -11 0 0.80 15% 1.0 .15 19% .16 56% .09 1.34 73% 40% 40% +11 +2 1.29 44% 1.1 .47 13% .20 67% .13
Dec
31		 Charleston Southern D+ F B C+ F 48% 13% 38% A F C- A+ B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F B- F F+ D- 48% 12% 40% D+ D- C- F F D F C- F
1.07 28% 43% 35% -13 +2 0.79 28% 1.4 .38 14% .52 88% .46 1.21 54% 67% 40% +5 +2 1.16 29% 1.4 .41 16% .50 68% .34
Jan
3		 Winthrop B- C A+ B+ A 27% 17% 56% D+ A- F D F A+ C- F F F F A+ B- F 46% 13% 41% D+ F F A+ A D- F F F
1.14 57% 67% 38% +8 0 1.17 14% 1.0 .14 10% .31 58% .18 1.30 86% 0% 32% +6 +1 1.17 47% 0.5 .24 12% .54 81% .44
Jan
7		 High Point F F B F F 36% 13% 52% C F F A F+ F F F F F+ C+ F B+ C- 48% 12% 40% D+ C- F D F D C- C- C-
0.62 40% 43% 17% -19 +1 0.66 18% 1.3 .23 30% .11 33% .04 1.31 59% 71% 29% +1 +2 1.08 40% 1.3 .50 11% .37 77% .28
Jan
14		 Radford C- A F F D- 52% 8% 40% A- D+ F A+ C- A- A+ A A+ F C A+ F D+ 49% 13% 38% F D F A+ D+ F F D F
1.13 69% 0% 25% -3 +3 1.02 20% 1.7 .33 14% .43 81% .35 1.26 56% 14% 43% +1 +2 1.07 43% 0.7 .31 11% .46 76% .35
Jan
17		 Presbyterian F F F D- F 34% 20% 45% D F F A- F+ F A F B- F D- F F F 53% 26% 21% D F C F D- F D+ F D-
0.79 47% 22% 30% -10 0 0.82 18% 1.2 .21 24% .38 60% .23 1.31 64% 50% 45% +10 0 1.23 32% 1.2 .39 13% .36 77% .28
Jan
21		 Longwood F F A+ F F 46% 17% 38% C+ F B F D F F F F F F F B+ F 37% 23% 40% C F F F F D A- D- B
0.80 41% 50% 28% -9 +1 0.85 33% 0.6 .21 30% .25 58% .14 1.30 79% 58% 29% +9 0 1.19 48% 1.3 .61 17% .26 80% .21
Jan
23		 South Carolina Upstate D- F+ F C- F 60% 12% 29% A D- B- F D+ D- D- A- D+ C- A+ A F C+ 43% 23% 34% C C+ C A B D+ F D F
1.01 48% 17% 33% -9 +3 0.90 34% 0.9 .31 18% .24 77% .18 0.98 40% 27% 44% -5 0 0.91 28% 0.7 .21 17% .40 73% .29
Jan
29		 UNC Asheville F F+ A+ F F 53% 6% 40% A F D- B- D+ F F F F D- F A+ F F+ 26% 24% 50% F+ F F A C D F A- D
0.84 48% 67% 21% -11 +3 0.85 24% 1.0 .24 22% .15 57% .09 1.16 73% 10% 48% +7 -1 1.14 37% 0.8 .29 15% .41 62% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Longwood F C- D D D- 53% 6% 40% A D+ D+ F F F B- F C- F F C D F 58% 15% 26% F F A A+ A+ F+ C- A+ B+
0.93 60% 33% 32% -1 +3 1.06 25% 0.5 .13 25% .38 60% .23 1.21 77% 38% 36% +12 +2 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 15% .33 60% .20
Feb
7		 Presbyterian D- C C- A+ B- 54% 17% 29% B B- D- F F D F+ F F C- F B A+ D- 51% 27% 22% D+ D- F A+ B- B- F C- F
0.98 58% 38% 43% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 17% .23 33% .08 1.07 74% 33% 20% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.7 .28 21% .46 70% .32
Feb
12		 Winthrop C C+ C- A+ A- 49% 9% 42% A A D- C+ D F C- F D- F C F F F 44% 2% 55% F F F F F C+ F+ C- F+
1.11 59% 40% 43% +7 +2 1.20 23% 1.1 .26 21% .31 63% .20 1.34 54% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.27 42% 1.3 .53 16% .43 75% .32
Feb
14		 High Point C C+ A+ A+ A+ 56% 11% 33% A- A+ F F F A+ A- F C+ F F F F F 33% 10% 57% C+ F F A+ F A+ F F F
1.11 60% 67% 50% +12 +2 1.31 0% 0.0 .00 13% .38 62% .24 1.43 79% 67% 39% +14 +1 1.33 52% 0.9 .48 20% .47 90% .42
Feb
17		 Charleston Southern F A- F+ F C- 43% 17% 40% B+ C F F F D+ F B- F B B+ A+ B+ A+ 59% 7% 34% F A C F D- F D- C+ D
0.89 65% 30% 25% -4 +1 0.97 18% 0.1 .02 13% .17 73% .12 1.01 50% 0% 30% -9 +3 0.90 28% 1.2 .33 13% .31 65% .20
Feb
19		 Radford D B- B+ F C- 53% 18% 29% B- C- F+ A+ C+ D F+ F F D- F A+ B- C- 31% 10% 58% D+ C- D F F B- F+ F F
1.01 63% 44% 27% 0 +1 1.06 24% 1.6 .38 20% .25 57% .15 1.19 73% 0% 32% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.3 .42 19% .43 92% .39
Feb
26		 UNC Asheville C C A D- D 49% 4% 47% A C- F A+ C- A+ C B C+ F C- F D D 36% 19% 45% F F+ F F F C- F A- F
1.15 58% 50% 30% -2 +3 1.04 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 72% .23 1.24 60% 50% 37% +5 0 1.12 45% 1.3 .61 16% .46 63% .29
Feb
28		 South Carolina Upstate F D F D- F 53% 11% 36% A- F+ F A+ D- D- F F F C D B- A+ B- 54% 11% 35% F C B F D- F+ A+ F B+
0.87 52% 0% 30% -10 +2 0.87 17% 1.7 .28 18% .14 38% .05 1.01 61% 33% 20% -6 +2 0.95 24% 1.4 .33 14% .17 90% .15
Mar
4		 South Carolina Upstate D- F+ F C- F+ 50% 17% 33% B- D- B+ C B F A A+ A+ C C- A- C C- 31% 16% 53% C- C- D- F F A+ C- B+ C
1.01 48% 25% 33% -8 +1 0.89 38% 1.2 .44 20% .39 80% .31 0.99 57% 29% 33% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.4 .47 26% .29 64% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 99.1%