Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -10.0 319
Expected Predictive Rating -10.9 329
Pace 66.9 234
Improvement +0.5 163

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- #341 D D- C D+ B-
Defense D+ #263 C- D+ D C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 120 53% 286 -0.5 197
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 277 30% 354 -3.0 318
Three Pointers 43% 135 31% 300 -0.8 210
1st FG Attempt 0.93 312 -4.4 312
Second Chance 25.9% 306 0.87 342 0.23 343
Turnovers 16.6% 161
Freethrows 0.28 258 68% 307 0.19 285
Total Offense -7.0 341

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 161 61% 253 -1.5 230
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 77 39% 198 -1.4 292
Three Pointers 37% 296 36% 267 +1.0 139
1st FG Attempt 1.06 239 -1.9 239
Second Chance 32.1% 243 1.11 303 0.36 296
Turnovers 14.5% 322
Freethrows 0.29 130 73% 249 0.21 134
Total Defense -2.9 263

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.7 89 -0.3 106
Shot Type Accuracy -4.9 333 +2.2 268
Possession Length 18.0 252 16.9 127
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 347 0.20 258
Improvement -3.9 #340 +4.4 #16

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 13% 21% 2%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 14% 7% 24%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 55.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 30 - 70 - 10
Quad 410 - 1210 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 136 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 9% -6  5% 0 - 1 C- -4 B +5 C B B+ F+ -10 B- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 30 @Texas L 60 - 97 1% -18  0% 0 - 2 F -19 F -10 D- B F F+ -10 C+ F D
 Thu, Nov 13 159 Cornell L 78 - 97 26% -7  31% 0 - 3 F -22 F -12 F D- B+ F+ -9 C F D-
 Mon, Nov 17 56 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 3% -11  0% 0 - 4 D -9 D -4 B D+ F D -6 D- D+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 330 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 42% -4  20% 0 - 5 D- -12 D -5 D- D F D -7 F B- C
 Fri, Nov 28 303 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 55% -1  32% 0 - 6 F -24 F -17 F F+ F+ D -7 C+ F D
 Sat, Nov 29 310 Ball St. W 55 - 37 58% +4  62% 1 - 6 B- +6 F -17 F D+ A+ A+ +25 A+ A- B-
 Sun, Nov 30 208 Monmouth L 74 - 88 34% -13  6% 1 - 7 F -20 D+ -3 C- D- B F -17 F A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 5 304 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 55% +2  71% 2 - 7 C- -3 B+ +8 A+ B- F F+ -10 B F F
 Mon, Dec 8 185 @Penn L 72 - 74 14% -6  2% 2 - 8 C -1 D -4 B- F D B- +4 B- B+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 168 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 13% -11  4% 2 - 9 D- -12 C+ +3 C C+ C F -17 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 131 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 9% -7  2% 2 - 10 D -9 B+ +8 A- F A F -17 D F F
 Wed, Dec 31 209 Colgate L 77 - 85 34% -1  26% 2 - 11 0 - 1 D- -14 D -5 D+ C+ C- D- -8 D- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 312 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 35% +15  99% 3 - 11 1 - 1 B +9 B +6 C- A+ B B- +4 B- B+ F+
 Wed, Jan 7 275 Boston University L 67 - 83 48% -10  0% 3 - 12 1 - 2 F -25 F -13 F+ F A F -14 F+ D F
 Sat, Jan 10 166 @Navy L 50 - 76 12% -20  0% 3 - 13 1 - 3 F -23 F -20 F F F+ D+ -5 F C F+
 Wed, Jan 14 324 @Bucknell L 69 - 76 39% -1  30% 3 - 14 1 - 4 D- -14 D -4 D+ D- C+ F+ -11 F F B
 Sat, Jan 17 321 Holy Cross W 74 - 55 62% +12  96% 4 - 14 2 - 4 B- +6 C- -2 D- C+ A+ A- +9 A B- C
 Wed, Jan 21 275 @Boston University L 73 - 77 OT 26% +2  66% 4 - 15 2 - 5 D+ -7 F+ -9 F+ F B- C+ +2 C- C C+
 Sat, Jan 24 306 @Lehigh L 59 - 64 33% -7  14% 4 - 16 2 - 6 D -10 F -14 F F+ B B- +4 B F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 324 Bucknell W 81 - 79 62% -4  8% 5 - 16 3 - 6 D- -11 B +6 C C+ A F -17 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 258 @American W 67 - 65 24% -1  34% 6 - 16 4 - 6 C -1 D+ -3 C+ F C+ B- +2 B F+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 166 Navy L 50 - 65 27% -4  11% 6 - 17 4 - 7 F -18 F -20 D+ F D- C -0 B- B F
 Sat, Feb 7 341 @Army W 63 - 60 46% +4  78% 7 - 17 5 - 7 D+ -6 F -15 F F F A- +9 B C B-
 Wed, Feb 11 312 Loyola Maryland L 54 - 68 58% -9  1% 7 - 18 5 - 8 F -26 F -24 F F A+ C- -3 D- A D-
 Sat, Feb 14 306 Lehigh W 70 - 69 56%
 Wed, Feb 18 321 @Holy Cross L 67 - 70 40%
 Sun, Feb 22 258 American L 70 - 71 46%
 Wed, Feb 25 209 @Colgate L 66 - 76 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 341 Army W 74 - 69 68%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -10 D- -7 D D- C D+ -3 C- D+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D+ F+ D D- 41% 16% 43% B- D D D- D- C D+ D D+ D+ D+ C D+ D+ 39% 24% 37% C+ C- C- D D+ D C+ C- C+
0.99 53% 30% 31% -5 +1 0.93 26% 0.9 .23 17% .28 68% .19 1.13 61% 39% 36% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.1 .36 14% .29 73% .21
Nov
3		 Saint Joseph's B C- B- D C- 44% 19% 37% A- C C A B B+ A+ F B F+ C+ F A+ B 45% 16% 39% C- B- F F F F F+ F F
1.08 54% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.96 31% 1.3 .38 13% .37 52% .19 1.20 56% 44% 23% -6 +1 0.91 40% 1.4 .54 10% .35 86% .30
Nov
8		 Texas F F C- F+ F+ 38% 26% 36% C+ D- B- A- B F C- F+ D F+ C- D+ C C+ 38% 21% 40% C+ C+ F F F D F C F
0.87 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 22% .32 65% .20 1.41 65% 45% 33% +4 0 1.10 52% 1.7 .87 13% .48 76% .37
Nov
13		 Cornell F F+ F+ D+ F 51% 23% 26% C F F B+ D- B+ A- D- B- F+ F A+ C- C 37% 3% 60% D C C F F D- B- B B
1.04 52% 31% 33% -5 +1 0.93 21% 1.3 .29 12% .39 65% .26 1.29 73% 0% 36% +6 +2 1.18 31% 1.5 .47 15% .26 71% .19
Nov
17		 West Virginia D F A+ A+ C+ 51% 4% 44% A+ B D C- D+ F C+ B- C+ D B D F D- 45% 19% 36% C D- F B D+ C- D C+ D+
0.88 35% 50% 45% -4 +3 1.00 20% 1.0 .20 28% .25 75% .19 1.21 52% 44% 47% +6 +1 1.15 39% 1.1 .42 15% .37 67% .25
Nov
21		 Stonehill D F+ F C+ F+ 54% 17% 29% B+ D- A+ F D F A+ D A+ D F F+ D F 45% 22% 33% C- F F+ A+ B- C F+ A+ D+
0.98 46% 25% 36% -8 +2 0.90 38% 0.6 .21 17% .49 66% .32 1.04 65% 45% 35% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.6 .20 21% .30 59% .18
Nov
28		 Le Moyne F C- F C- F 29% 20% 51% D F F D+ F+ F+ D+ B- C- D D- B A C 41% 29% 29% A C+ F F F D C D+ C
0.91 53% 0% 35% -8 -1 0.84 23% 1.0 .23 19% .30 76% .23 1.10 67% 33% 27% -1 -1 0.98 35% 1.5 .55 17% .33 74% .25
Nov
29		 Ball St. F F F F F 43% 28% 30% C- F F+ B+ D+ A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C A+ D+ A+ A- B- B+ B B+
0.89 45% 15% 14% -21 -1 0.60 26% 1.2 .32 13% .37 85% .32 0.60 29% 38% 13% -25 0 0.51 28% 0.4 .12 18% .24 67% .16
Nov
30		 Monmouth D+ C+ D- B C 29% 31% 40% F C- F B- D- B A B A+ F F F+ F F 38% 33% 29% B F A A A+ D+ F B- F
1.05 60% 31% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 17% .38 77% .29 1.25 72% 44% 57% +17 -2 1.33 23% 0.8 .18 16% .52 71% .37
Dec
5		 Mercyhurst B+ F+ F A+ A+ 43% 9% 48% B- A+ C+ B- B- F D A+ B+ F+ C+ B A B- 29% 43% 28% A- B F F F F A- D B+
1.24 47% 25% 57% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .40 24% .33 94% .31 1.11 53% 36% 25% -6 -4 0.83 37% 1.6 .61 9% .14 75% .10
Dec
8		 Penn D C+ F A+ C+ 55% 13% 32% A- B- F F F D D+ A+ C B- D B+ A B 46% 29% 25% D B- C A B+ F C+ A- B
1.01 62% 14% 41% +3 +2 1.11 20% 0.5 .10 18% .22 77% .17 1.03 62% 31% 29% -2 0 0.96 31% 0.8 .24 13% .30 63% .19
Dec
18		 Charlotte C+ B+ F B+ C 29% 20% 51% C- C B D- C+ C F F F F B B- F F 27% 13% 60% B- F A F C- F A+ F A+
1.13 67% 10% 38% +1 -1 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 15% .08 50% .04 1.37 54% 33% 55% +18 0 1.38 26% 1.3 .33 12% .17 89% .15
Dec
20		 Georgia Tech B+ B- A+ C+ A- 30% 13% 57% B A- D- F F A B B+ B+ F C+ B+ F D- 39% 31% 30% B+ D D- F F F F F F
1.14 59% 57% 34% +3 0 1.09 23% 0.5 .11 11% .33 76% .25 1.34 57% 29% 56% +7 -1 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 13% .48 87% .42
Dec
31		 Colgate D D+ A+ F D 45% 16% 39% B D+ F A+ C+ C- A+ D- A D- F+ F+ D+ F+ 40% 23% 37% D D- B A+ A+ F+ F C- F
1.05 55% 50% 26% -4 +1 0.96 18% 1.8 .32 16% .46 68% .31 1.16 67% 50% 37% +8 0 1.17 23% 0.4 .09 12% .51 73% .37
Jan
3		 Loyola Maryland B C A+ F+ D+ 49% 14% 37% B+ C- D A+ A+ B D+ F F B- A- C- C+ B- 39% 15% 46% C B- B A B+ F+ A- D+ B
1.21 63% 57% 28% +2 +2 1.08 28% 2.0 .56 12% .26 53% .14 0.98 48% 38% 32% -5 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .18 14% .20 73% .14
Jan
7		 Boston University F B- A+ F F 52% 16% 32% B+ F+ F F F A D+ F F F B- F F F 38% 29% 33% A- F+ D- C D F B- D+ C+
1.02 62% 56% 17% -3 +2 0.98 18% 0.7 .13 8% .26 50% .13 1.26 55% 53% 53% +13 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 14% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Navy F C+ F D F 27% 23% 50% C F F F F F+ A- F B- D+ F+ F D F 33% 26% 41% B F A+ F C F+ F A+ C+
0.75 62% 9% 29% -9 -1 0.81 19% 0.3 .05 21% .32 65% .21 1.14 67% 50% 37% +8 -1 1.15 21% 1.6 .32 15% .47 48% .23
Jan
14		 Bucknell D D+ F A D+ 33% 17% 50% C+ D+ F A D- C+ F B D- F+ C B F F 45% 16% 39% D F C- F F B C+ F C-
1.05 56% 13% 42% +1 0 1.04 21% 1.3 .26 17% .24 77% .18 1.15 55% 29% 47% +5 +1 1.14 27% 2.0 .54 23% .27 86% .24
Jan
17		 Holy Cross C- F D A- F+ 54% 21% 25% C+ D- A- F+ C+ A+ A+ F A- A- C B A+ A- 23% 35% 42% A A B+ D+ B- C F B+ F+
1.14 50% 36% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 0.9 .35 8% .40 63% .25 0.85 55% 35% 25% -7 -3 0.81 17% 1.0 .17 17% .37 70% .26
Jan
21		 Boston University F+ C- F D+ F 44% 13% 44% B+ F+ D F F B- F B+ F C+ C- F C- C 44% 8% 48% F C- B D- C C+ C+ A B
1.02 56% 25% 33% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.5 .12 11% .14 78% .11 1.08 61% 50% 36% +4 +2 1.13 22% 1.1 .25 20% .28 63% .17
Jan
24		 Lehigh F D+ D+ F F 43% 16% 41% B F D- F F+ B C+ F D+ B- A A+ F B+ 48% 20% 33% F B F D- F A+ C+ F D-
0.90 52% 38% 20% -11 +1 0.82 29% 0.8 .24 14% .34 63% .21 0.98 45% 11% 47% -5 +1 0.93 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 92% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Bucknell B A+ D+ D C 32% 18% 50% C C C+ C C+ A A+ C+ A+ F F F D F 20% 42% 38% A+ F+ F+ F F F F C+ F
1.24 79% 38% 32% +5 0 1.11 34% 1.1 .38 12% .54 74% .40 1.21 67% 42% 35% +4 -4 1.02 32% 1.3 .42 15% .58 75% .43
Jan
31		 American D+ C+ A C C 38% 13% 49% B- C+ B- F F C+ D+ F F B- F A A+ B- 33% 23% 44% A- B F C F+ C D+ B- C-
1.05 61% 50% 35% +3 +1 1.11 35% 0.4 .15 17% .36 58% .21 1.02 75% 27% 24% -3 -1 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 17% .29 73% .21
Feb
4		 Navy F B- A+ F D- 36% 6% 57% A+ D+ F F F D- F A+ F C D D- A+ C+ 41% 39% 20% A B- B B- B F A D+ A-
0.79 65% 67% 22% -6 +2 0.94 18% 0.0 .00 20% .12 100% .12 1.02 62% 45% 10% -3 -2 0.92 26% 1.0 .26 14% .24 77% .18
Feb
7		 Army F D- D+ F+ F 45% 19% 36% C+ F C F F F A+ F B A- C- A- A+ A- 43% 7% 50% D B F A C B- A F B+
0.94 52% 33% 29% -6 +1 0.91 33% 0.8 .25 19% .48 62% .29 0.89 57% 25% 22% -10 +2 0.85 36% 0.7 .26 19% .17 78% .13
Feb
11		 Loyola Maryland F C+ A F F 35% 11% 54% B F D- F F A+ D F F C- C- D+ D+ D- 37% 9% 54% D+ D- A+ B+ A D- A+ D- A
0.82 63% 50% 14% -13 +1 0.78 27% 0.5 .14 6% .24 40% .10 1.04 60% 40% 34% +1 +1 1.07 18% 0.8 .15 15% .14 75% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.1 1.5 4.6 3rd
4th 2.7 6.0 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.4 11.8 1.8 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 6.2 11.3 0.2 17.7 6th
7th 1.9 18.8 2.9 23.5 7th
8th 0.2 9.4 7.9 0.0 17.5 8th
9th 1.9 7.8 0.3 9.9 9th
10th 3.0 0.8 3.8 10th
Total 5.0 19.9 33.5 28.8 11.1 1.7 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 1.7% 8.3% 8.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6
9-9 11.1% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.5 10.6
8-10 28.8% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.8 28.0
7-11 33.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.4 33.1
6-12 19.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 19.7
5-13 5.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 16.0 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 3.0%