Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.1 197
Results Rating -1.6 188
Consistency 0.15 189
Pace 72.9 62
Improvement -3.6 308

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 213 C+ D C F+ B
Defense C 190 C- C+ C+ B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 133 C+ 59% 141 +1.4 121
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 330 F+ 31% 353 -4.1 353
Three Pointers 48% 45 C 34% 156 +3.7 61
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.2 38 C -0.2 169
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 138
Second Chance D 24.6% 329 C- 1.01 216 D 0.25 316
Opponents' Steals C 9.3% 167
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 195
Turnovers C 16.6% 174
Freethrows F 0.23 362 B- 75% 90 F+ 0.17 352
Total Offense C- -1.7 213

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 51% 135 C+ 9.9% 117
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 225 F 10.2% 360
Three Pointers B+ 92% 17 C 1.0% 216
Total B+ 64% 38 C 5.7% 201


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 252 D+ 62% 296 +0.4 193
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 97 C 38% 167 +0.8 247
Three Pointers 41% 187 C 34% 209 +0.2 196
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 101 D+ +1.7 248
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 223
Second Chance C- 30.9% 214 B- 0.97 78 C+ 0.30 144
Turnovers from Steals C 9.4% 192
Other Turnovers B- 8.1% 79
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 134
Freethrows B- 0.28 99 B- 70% 80 B- 0.20 82
Total Defense C -0.4 190

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 133 D+ 8.2% 291
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 31 C 5.2% 143
Three Pointers B 78% 38 C 0.9% 162
Total B- 51% 81 D+ 4.5% 259

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.4 80 17.3 182
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 89 0.17 184
Consistency 0.10 38 0.13 263
Improvement -0.8 234 -2.7 310

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 208 194 173
Results Rating Rank 213 187 138
Conference Record 12 - 6 12 - 6 12 - 6
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 26% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round17% 26% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 415 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 18 @Vanderbilt L 61 - 105 3% -29  0% 0 - 1 F -23 F+ -10 F C F F -10 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 178 @Mercer L 77 - 92 35% -8  1% 0 - 2 D- -13 C +2 C- B- B- F -15 F F F
 Tue, Nov 11 246 @UNC Asheville L 64 - 69 49% -4  9% 0 - 3 D+ -7 D- -7 F C C+ C -1 F+ F+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 68 @Belmont L 68 - 75 10% -7  4% 0 - 4 C+ +5 F -12 F B+ F A+ +17 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 232 Western Carolina W 83 - 62 68% +12  77% 1 - 4 B+ +14 D+ -3 C C+ C+ A+ +16 B+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 189 @Marshall W 90 - 67 37% +17  94% 2 - 4 A+ +24 C+ +3 A+ F D- A+ +19 A+ C- A
 Sat, Nov 29 224 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 77 44% +4  76% 3 - 4 B +10 B- +4 A- D D- B+ +5 B+ B A-
 Wed, Dec 3 312 Tennessee Tech W 83 - 80 83% +1  52% 4 - 4 D -9 D+ -3 C- F+ C- D -6 F C D
 Sun, Dec 7 302 Alabama A&M W 92 - 58 81% +13  95% 5 - 4 A +22 A+ +16 A+ C+ A+ A +9 A B- B-
 Tue, Dec 16 1 @Duke L 73 - 97 1% -5  33% 5 - 5 B- +6 C+ +2 B+ F C A- +8 A- F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 37 @Cincinnati L 62 - 89 5% -16  12% 5 - 6 D -10 D+ -3 C C+ C+ D -6 C F F+
 Thu, Jan 1 293 Jacksonville W 76 - 57 80% +9  93% 6 - 6 1 - 0 B- +8 A- +10 A- F A+ B- +2 C D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 340 North Florida W 82 - 74 89% +2  50% 7 - 6 2 - 0 D+ -7 D -6 F D A- C- -2 C B C
 Thu, Jan 8 309 @Stetson L 83 - 91 65% -11  2% 7 - 7 2 - 1 D- -14 D -4 C+ F F+ F+ -9 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 264 @Florida Gulf Coast W 84 - 77 53% +1  62% 8 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +4 B- +5 B- C D- C -1 D C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 285 Bellarmine W 81 - 71 77% +14  97% 9 - 7 4 - 1 C +0 D+ -3 D+ C+ D- B +4 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 176 Austin Peay W 82 - 78 57% +2  70% 10 - 7 5 - 1 C -0 C -0 B- F+ B C +0 C+ C- B
 Thu, Jan 22 309 Stetson W 79 - 74 OT 83% +5  81% 11 - 7 6 - 1 D+ -7 F -15 F+ F B A- +7 B- A A-
 Fri, Jan 23 264 Florida Gulf Coast W 86 - 71 74% +5  68% 12 - 7 7 - 1 B- +6 A+ +16 A+ A C+ D- -8 B- F D
 Thu, Jan 29 293 @Jacksonville L 65 - 70 60% -8  0% 12 - 8 7 - 2 D -10 C- -2 D- A- B+ F+ -8 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 31 340 @North Florida W 100 - 94 76% -2  38% 13 - 8 8 - 2 C- -3 A +12 A+ F A F -16 F F C
 Wed, Feb 4 176 @Austin Peay L 76 - 87 35% -4  32% 13 - 9 8 - 3 D -9 C -0 C C- B- F+ -9 F A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 169 Central Arkansas L 78 - 86 56% -9  0% 13 - 10 8 - 4 D- -12 D+ -3 B C- D+ F+ -9 C- F+ C
 Wed, Feb 11 294 Eastern Kentucky W 75 - 61 80% +8  77% 14 - 10 9 - 4 C+ +3 D -5 C- F+ D A +9 C+ A B
 Sat, Feb 14 204 @Queens L 81 - 87 39% -11  5% 14 - 11 9 - 5 D+ -5 D- -8 D+ D F B- +3 F B A+
 Wed, Feb 18 285 @Bellarmine W 75 - 72 57% +1  57% 15 - 11 10 - 5 C -1 D+ -3 B F D B- +3 B D+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 342 North Alabama W 73 - 51 89% +4  53% 16 - 11 11 - 5 B- +6 C- -1 A+ F D- A +10 A+ B- C-
 Wed, Feb 25 303 @West Georgia L 77 - 84 63% -6  10% 16 - 12 11 - 6 D- -13 C- -2 C+ F+ B- F -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 294 @Eastern Kentucky W 80 - 77 61% -1  39% 17 - 12 12 - 6 C- -2 B- +4 D- C A+ D -6 F A+ B
 Fri, Mar 6 264 Florida Gulf Coast W 78 - 74 64%
Totals 18 - 12 12 - 6 -2 C- -2 C C B C +0 C B- F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ F+ C C 40% 23% 48% B C+ D C- D C F B- F+ C D+ C C D+ 36% 23% 41% B- C- C- B- C+ C+ B- B- B-
1.06 59% 31% 34% 0 +1 1.04 25% 1.0 .25 17% .23 75% .17 1.09 62% 38% 34% +2 0 1.05 31% 1.0 .30 17% .28 70% .16
Nov
3		 Vanderbilt F+ F F F F 34% 18% 48% B F D+ A- C F B+ A+ A+ F F A+ F F 35% 20% 45% B- F A+ A+ A+ F A A A+
0.82 41% 11% 25% -17 0 0.68 24% 1.1 .26 24% .39 95% .37 1.40 76% 25% 63% +23 0 1.48 24% 0.5 .12 8% .25 71% .17
Nov
9		 Mercer C C F C+ D+ 42% 9% 49% A- C- C B B- B- F A+ F F F A+ F F 43% 22% 34% D+ F D F F F A+ B A+
1.12 57% 20% 37% 0 +2 1.05 33% 1.1 .36 16% .12 86% .10 1.34 76% 23% 45% +10 0 1.22 37% 1.4 .50 12% .21 69% .15
Nov
11		 UNC Asheville D- D+ A F F 42% 12% 46% B- F A- F C C+ D B+ C- C D F D F 26% 37% 37% B- F+ C- F F+ A+ F A- F
0.99 55% 50% 21% -9 +1 0.87 39% 0.8 .29 15% .27 73% .20 1.07 64% 50% 38% +8 -3 1.12 31% 1.2 .38 23% .48 63% .30
Nov
19		 Belmont F F B F F 27% 8% 64% B F B B+ B+ F F A+ F+ A+ C+ B A A+ 33% 7% 60% C A+ D B- C- A+ F D F
0.87 31% 40% 24% -17 +1 0.69 36% 1.2 .42 24% .17 90% .15 0.96 60% 33% 30% -4 +1 0.98 31% 1.2 .37 28% .52 72% .38
Nov
22		 Western Carolina D+ B- F B C- 35% 10% 55% B C D+ A C+ C+ F F F A+ F F A+ B+ 25% 22% 53% B+ B+ A+ F B+ A+ B- A+ B+
1.11 64% 17% 38% +3 +1 1.11 25% 1.2 .30 15% .09 50% .05 0.83 77% 55% 15% -7 -1 0.86 15% 1.8 .26 24% .27 60% .16
Nov
26		 Marshall C+ A- D+ A+ A+ 37% 17% 46% B- A+ F D- F D- A- F C+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 35% 22% 43% D A+ C+ D- C- A F D- F
1.16 68% 33% 50% +14 0 1.31 18% 0.8 .15 19% .41 65% .27 0.86 53% 25% 17% -15 0 0.70 29% 1.3 .37 22% .36 77% .28
Nov
29		 Southeast Missouri St. B- B- F+ A+ B+ 43% 11% 45% B A- F A D D- C D+ C- B+ B- D- A+ B+ 43% 26% 30% B B+ D A+ B A- F F F
1.10 61% 33% 42% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.3 .24 20% .40 73% .30 0.96 52% 43% 19% -8 0 0.85 32% 0.8 .26 21% .47 77% .36
Dec
3		 Tennessee Tech D+ C F C- D+ 36% 7% 57% A- C- D F F+ C- B- F+ C D A+ F F F 30% 32% 39% A F C+ D+ C D C+ A- B-
1.12 60% 25% 34% 0 +2 1.05 26% 1.0 .26 15% .32 70% .22 1.08 41% 50% 45% +5 -2 1.09 28% 1.1 .31 16% .27 71% .19
Dec
7		 Alabama A&M A+ A A+ B- A 53% 5% 42% A A+ F A+ C+ A+ F F F A A A B A 40% 32% 28% C+ A F A+ B- B- D- B- D
1.40 73% 67% 38% +12 +3 1.32 21% 1.7 .36 6% .21 62% .13 0.88 42% 27% 31% -11 -1 0.77 33% 0.7 .23 18% .39 71% .28
Dec
16		 Duke C+ C F C+ B- 50% 14% 36% A+ B+ F F F C A A+ A+ A- C F A A 50% 6% 44% D+ A- F D+ F A+ C- D D+
0.89 52% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.95 8% 0.0 .00 19% .30 90% .27 1.18 63% 67% 29% +1 +3 1.09 53% 1.3 .68 27% .36 77% .28
Dec
29		 Cincinnati D+ D A F+ D+ 38% 4% 58% A+ C F+ A+ C+ C+ D F F+ D C- A+ D C+ 40% 15% 45% D- C D+ F F F+ A+ B- A+
0.86 47% 50% 28% -9 +2 0.88 16% 1.8 .30 19% .22 54% .12 1.23 63% 22% 37% +1 +1 1.07 36% 1.4 .49 11% .14 67% .09
Jan
1		 Jacksonville A- A+ F A+ A 40% 16% 44% C A- F+ F F A+ F A+ F B- D- A- B- C- 27% 24% 49% A- C F B+ D+ A+ C+ B+ B-
1.29 75% 25% 45% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.7 .14 7% .20 91% .18 0.97 64% 30% 30% -3 -1 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 25% .27 67% .18
Jan
3		 North Florida D F F C F 26% 18% 56% D- F C- D- D A- B+ D+ B C- A+ D+ D+ C 23% 12% 65% B- C D- A+ B C A+ F A+
1.16 47% 20% 34% -6 0 0.89 35% 1.1 .37 8% .34 68% .23 1.05 43% 43% 36% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 18% .07 100% .07
Jan
8		 Stetson D B- A+ D- C 50% 12% 38% B+ C+ F A+ F F+ A+ D+ A F+ F F D+ F 34% 13% 53% D- F A+ A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.08 65% 67% 30% +5 +2 1.15 17% 1.4 .23 18% .38 71% .27 1.19 78% 57% 36% +11 +1 1.25 13% 0.5 .06 14% .44 79% .35
Jan
10		 Florida Gulf Coast B- F+ F A+ B- 39% 12% 49% B- B- D A C D- C+ A+ A- C C- F A- F+ 35% 38% 27% A D B D C+ D+ D- A C-
1.17 50% 17% 48% +5 +1 1.14 25% 1.3 .32 20% .37 86% .31 1.08 61% 55% 29% +5 -3 1.08 26% 1.1 .29 15% .31 63% .20
Jan
15		 Bellarmine D+ C+ A D+ D- 39% 9% 52% B+ D+ A- D- C+ D- A+ F B- B A+ F A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% A A+ F A+ D+ F F A+ F
1.22 65% 50% 35% +4 +2 1.14 43% 1.0 .43 18% .42 61% .26 1.07 41% 55% 20% -12 0 0.77 32% 0.9 .27 9% .50 67% .33
Jan
17		 Austin Peay C B- A+ D- C 62% 7% 31% A+ B- D F F+ B F+ A+ B- C A- D C- C- 33% 33% 34% A+ C+ B- D- C- B B C- B
1.10 65% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 26% 0.5 .13 16% .24 100% .24 1.04 47% 42% 35% -2 -2 0.95 26% 1.3 .34 19% .26 75% .20
Jan
22		 Stetson F C F D F 41% 19% 41% C F+ F F F B C- B+ C+ A- C B+ C+ B- 36% 28% 36% B- B- D A+ A A- B F C-
0.98 62% 25% 31% -3 0 0.97 18% 0.5 .09 12% .27 79% .21 0.92 57% 31% 33% -3 -1 0.95 29% 0.5 .16 22% .24 87% .21
Jan
23		 Florida Gulf Coast A+ D+ F A+ A+ 19% 15% 66% D A+ B+ A A C+ D A+ C D- F A+ D C+ 17% 28% 54% A- B- C- F F D F A F+
1.36 56% 0% 55% +14 -1 1.30 37% 1.3 .48 16% .30 88% .26 1.13 75% 15% 36% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.6 .50 14% .37 65% .24
Jan
29		 Jacksonville C- C- C+ F F 58% 10% 32% A D- F A+ A- B+ F C F F+ F+ C- D F 43% 21% 36% C- F C+ D C- F C F D+
1.08 59% 40% 25% -4 +3 1.00 19% 2.0 .38 12% .19 70% .13 1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.1 .32 12% .28 80% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Florida A A- F A+ A 59% 5% 36% A+ A+ F A+ F A F A- F+ F D+ A+ F F 33% 5% 62% D- F F C- F C D+ F F+
1.37 69% 33% 45% +13 +3 1.34 18% 1.6 .29 8% .19 77% .15 1.29 61% 0% 44% +8 +2 1.22 37% 1.2 .43 18% .27 94% .25
Feb
4		 Austin Peay C A F F C- 51% 9% 40% A C F A C- B- F A+ F F+ F C+ F F 36% 36% 27% A+ F A+ A- A+ C- A- A A
1.06 71% 20% 27% +1 +2 1.09 22% 1.0 .22 17% .17 90% .15 1.21 85% 35% 60% +19 -2 1.36 8% 1.0 .08 15% .25 67% .16
Feb
7		 Central Arkansas D+ A- D A- B+ 22% 13% 65% D B C D- C- D+ A+ D- A- F+ F C+ B- F+ 25% 40% 36% A+ C- F C F+ C F C- F+
1.07 70% 33% 40% +8 0 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 21% .38 68% .26 1.18 92% 33% 32% +5 -3 1.06 36% 1.1 .38 17% .35 71% .25
Feb
11		 Eastern Kentucky D C- B+ B- D+ 33% 8% 59% B+ C- C+ F F+ D F A+ D+ A A- F B- C+ 33% 24% 43% D+ C+ D+ A+ A B A- A+ A+
1.15 59% 50% 37% +4 +1 1.12 34% 0.7 .23 17% .24 92% .22 0.93 47% 50% 32% -2 -1 0.96 34% 0.7 .24 20% .19 50% .10
Feb
14		 Queens D- C+ A F D- 54% 7% 39% A D+ C+ F D F F+ F+ F B- F A F F 43% 14% 43% D+ F A+ F B A+ F A+ D+
1.03 61% 50% 27% -1 +3 1.05 35% 0.8 .30 19% .28 67% .19 1.11 81% 29% 43% +14 +1 1.33 19% 1.4 .26 23% .40 67% .26
Feb
18		 Bellarmine D+ A F A+ B 24% 6% 69% B B F F F D F A+ F B- D A+ B B 44% 15% 41% C+ B F+ A- D+ F A+ A+ A+
1.17 75% 0% 44% +12 +1 1.29 17% 0.8 .14 17% .19 90% .17 1.13 67% 25% 32% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 11% .19 64% .12
Feb
21		 North Alabama C- A+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 13% 52% C- A+ F F F D- F F F A C+ C A+ A+ 41% 33% 25% A+ A+ D A+ B- C- A+ A A+
1.17 88% 67% 42% +20 +1 1.43 17% 0.5 .09 18% .17 56% .10 0.82 52% 35% 0% -16 -1 0.67 34% 0.8 .27 18% .19 60% .12
Feb
25		 West Georgia C- B- A+ F C- 61% 5% 33% A C+ C- F F+ B- D F+ D- F F F D+ F 50% 20% 30% F F A+ A A+ F C- A+ A-
1.09 63% 67% 26% +1 +4 1.11 30% 0.6 .19 13% .29 67% .19 1.19 75% 55% 35% +12 +1 1.29 18% 0.8 .15 10% .28 44% .13
Feb
28		 Eastern Kentucky B- F A+ C- F+ 32% 12% 56% B- D- C+ C- C A+ F F F D C+ B F F 22% 12% 66% F+ F F A+ A+ B C F D-
1.22 50% 57% 34% 0 +1 1.04 35% 1.0 .35 8% .18 55% .10 1.18 55% 33% 45% +10 0 1.22 39% 0.5 .19 20% .27 86% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 17.0% 17.0% 14.7 0.5 5.5 9.8 1.2 83.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 14.7 83.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.0% 100.0% 14.7 2.7 32.6 57.5 7.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 16.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 31.2%
Lose Out 35.6%