Longwood
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -5.2 253
Results Rating -6.8 271
Consistency 0.15 173
Pace 70.6 120
Improvement +6.6 15

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 268 D+ C D- B- C-
Defense C- 218 D- B B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 186 C 58% 178 -0.1 188
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 107 D+ 36% 256 +0.6 141
Three Pointers 38% 247 D 31% 310 -3.5 297
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 240 D+ -2.5 269
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 275
Second Chance B- 32.7% 99 D 0.95 305 C 0.31 175
Opponents' Steals D- 11.6% 336
Other Turnovers D+ 8.2% 299
Turnovers D- 19.7% 336
Freethrows B- 0.33 116 B- 75% 113 B- 0.24 100
Total Offense D+ -3.8 268

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 202 C- 11.4% 207
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 318 B 2.9% 46
Three Pointers C+ 85% 172 C 0.9% 202
Total D+ 51% 282 C 5.4% 173


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 126 F+ 67% 357 +4.8 334
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 331 C- 39% 225 -1.7 51
Three Pointers 44% 93 C- 35% 233 +2.1 286
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 318 D- +4.2 332
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 336
Second Chance C+ 28.8% 120 B+ 0.91 34 B 0.26 53
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.9% 75
Other Turnovers C+ 7.5% 146
Turnovers B- 18.4% 82
Freethrows D 0.34 301 B 70% 54 D+ 0.24 269
Total Defense C- -1.5 218

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 84 D- 5.9% 350
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 107 D- 1.3% 348
Three Pointers C- 85% 201 C+ 1.2% 106
Total C+ 54% 146 D- 3.1% 343

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 106 17.3 174
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 258 0.18 210
Consistency 0.10 37 0.12 151
Improvement +1.8 99 +4.7 16

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 269 257 237
Results Rating Rank 296 289 251
Conference Record 8 - 8 8 - 8 8 - 8
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 5% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 n/a
.500 or above 2% 5% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four2% 3% 0%
First Round1% 3% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 412 - 814 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 95 @Pittsburgh L 60 - 78 10% -5  5% 0 - 1 D -9 F -11 F D A+ B- +2 D+ B B+
 Wed, Nov 12 198 James Madison W 82 - 72 50% +8  86% 1 - 1 C+ +5 C+ +3 D- D B+ C+ +2 C- A D+
 Sat, Nov 15 357 Binghamton W 90 - 82 90% +14  92% 2 - 1 D -11 C -0 D B- D- F -11 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 350 Maryland Eastern Shore L 82 - 83 2OT 85% -3  15% 2 - 2 F+ -17 F+ -9 F B F D- -8 F C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 190 @Columbia L 70 - 95 27% -13  1% 2 - 3 F -24 D- -7 B+ F F F -16 F D D
 Fri, Nov 28 208 Siena L 63 - 70 40% -3  26% 2 - 4 D -10 F -11 F B F C+ +2 F A B
 Sat, Nov 29 346 Maine W 65 - 61 77% +3  85% 3 - 4 D -9 D -6 A F F C- -3 C F B-
 Sun, Nov 30 254 @American L 66 - 92 39% -8  25% 3 - 5 F -28 F -12 F F A F -16 F F+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 349 @Morgan St. W 84 - 80 69% +1  53% 4 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ A- F D+ -4 F+ B C+
 Sat, Dec 13 361 Delaware St. L 76 - 81 92% -5  8% 4 - 6 F -26 C- -1 C D F F -25 F A F
 Wed, Dec 17 69 @Wake Forest L 68 - 71 7% -2  22% 4 - 7 B +9 D -6 F B- B- A+ +15 A A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 347 @NC Central W 74 - 72 68% +2  66% 5 - 7 D -8 F+ -8 F B- F C +0 C A- C-
 Wed, Dec 31 145 Winthrop W 82 - 70 38% +7  93% 6 - 7 1 - 0 B +10 B+ +8 B+ A+ D- B- +3 A+ B D-
 Sat, Jan 3 94 @High Point L 67 - 80 10% -7  3% 6 - 8 1 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 C+ C+ D+ C- -2 D+ C B-
 Wed, Jan 7 246 @UNC Asheville L 61 - 72 37% -6  1% 6 - 9 1 - 2 D- -13 F+ -9 F+ D- C D -5 F+ B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 271 Presbyterian W 77 - 70 65% +10  97% 7 - 9 2 - 2 C- -2 B +6 B+ B+ C D- -8 F A B-
 Sat, Jan 17 243 @Radford L 83 - 85 36% -11  0% 7 - 10 2 - 3 C- -4 B +7 C+ A+ F+ F -10 F A D+
 Wed, Jan 21 360 Gardner-Webb W 91 - 56 92% +17  96% 8 - 10 3 - 3 B+ +14 B +6 B- A+ D A +9 B C+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 250 Charleston Southern W 81 - 79 OT 61% +6  82% 9 - 10 4 - 3 D+ -6 F+ -10 C- F F B +4 D+ B A+
 Thu, Jan 29 307 @South Carolina Upstate L 60 - 65 52% -2  24% 9 - 11 4 - 4 D -11 F -16 D- F+ F B +5 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 94 High Point L 59 - 71 22% -6  17% 9 - 12 4 - 5 D -9 F -11 F+ D+ F C+ +1 C+ A+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 360 @Gardner-Webb W 86 - 66 81% +9  99% 10 - 12 5 - 5 B- +5 C+ +2 A- F C B- +3 F+ A- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 145 @Winthrop L 74 - 79 19% -2  20% 10 - 13 5 - 6 C -1 D- -7 F D C+ A- +7 B+ A B+
 Thu, Feb 12 246 UNC Asheville L 74 - 79 60% -0  54% 10 - 14 5 - 7 D- -13 C- -2 C+ C+ C+ F -11 F+ D F
 Sat, Feb 14 307 South Carolina Upstate W 82 - 75 OT 73% +3  76% 11 - 14 6 - 7 C- -5 F+ -10 D D+ D+ B +4 B+ F A+
 Thu, Feb 19 271 @Presbyterian L 65 - 72 42% +3  64% 11 - 15 6 - 8 D -10 D- -8 B B- F C- -3 F B B-
 Sat, Feb 21 250 @Charleston Southern W 107 - 96 2OT 38% -5  14% 12 - 15 7 - 8 B +9 A +12 D- A+ B+ D+ -5 F D- A
 Sat, Feb 28 243 Radford W 90 - 74 59% +2  47% 13 - 15 8 - 8 B +8 B- +5 C B F+ B- +2 D- A+ D+
 Fri, Mar 6 246 UNC Asheville L 71 - 72 48%
Totals 13 - 16 8 - 8 -5 D+ -4 B D+ C- C- -1 D B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C D+ D D+ 38% 44% 38% C- D+ B- D C D- B- B- B- C- F+ C- C- D- 41% 16% 44% D D- C+ B+ B B- D B D+
1.03 58% 36% 31% -3 0 0.96 33% 0.9 .31 20% .33 75% .24 1.11 67% 39% 35% +4 +1 1.13 29% 0.9 .26 18% .34 70% .23
Nov
7		 Pittsburgh F F F F F 53% 16% 32% B+ F C- F D A+ D A+ C- B- F A+ F D 20% 18% 61% A D+ B B B B+ F C- F
0.86 40% 22% 22% -18 +2 0.70 24% 0.7 .16 10% .22 86% .19 1.11 78% 13% 41% +6 -1 1.11 32% 0.9 .29 20% .62 69% .43
Nov
12		 James Madison C+ D- B+ F F+ 43% 20% 37% C+ D- B F D B+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D- A+ B C 46% 10% 44% F+ C- A+ B- A D+ D+ A+ B+
1.17 50% 44% 24% -8 0 0.87 35% 0.7 .25 10% .67 86% .57 1.03 67% 20% 30% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.0 .19 16% .32 53% .17
Nov
15		 Binghamton C A+ F F D 37% 13% 50% C D B+ C- B- D- A+ B+ A+ F F F A F+ 44% 10% 46% F F F F F A+ F D F
1.21 84% 14% 27% +1 +1 1.06 38% 1.0 .38 15% .48 77% .36 1.11 71% 60% 27% +3 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 28% .43 78% .34
Nov
18		 Maryland Eastern Shore F+ F+ D- F F 46% 27% 27% D+ F A- D+ B F A+ A+ A+ D- F B F+ F 33% 22% 44% C F F A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ B+
1.02 50% 31% 23% -10 0 0.81 41% 1.1 .43 24% .55 88% .49 1.03 89% 33% 38% +12 -1 1.24 44% 0.5 .23 30% .26 47% .12
Nov
23		 Columbia D- F A+ A+ A- 44% 27% 29% D+ B+ F F F F C- F D F C+ B- F F 28% 16% 56% B+ F C- D- D D A- D B
0.97 43% 64% 47% +6 0 1.13 19% 0.2 .03 21% .30 65% .19 1.31 56% 33% 53% +15 0 1.32 37% 1.1 .40 19% .21 75% .15
Nov
28		 Siena F B F F F+ 30% 30% 40% D- F B- B B F B+ A+ A C+ F F C F 33% 20% 48% D F A+ C A B F A+ D+
0.93 64% 29% 26% -6 -2 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 28% .33 81% .27 1.04 80% 56% 32% +9 0 1.20 17% 1.0 .17 19% .40 59% .24
Nov
29		 Maine D A A+ A A+ 37% 37% 26% F A C F F F A+ F A C- A- F B- C+ 40% 17% 43% D C F F F B- B- A+ A
1.01 71% 50% 40% +12 -2 1.21 37% 0.7 .26 30% .47 62% .29 0.95 47% 50% 30% -5 +1 0.94 28% 1.3 .36 22% .30 47% .14
Nov
30		 American F D+ F F F 45% 19% 36% C+ F C- F F A A+ B+ A+ F F B- F+ F 33% 12% 55% C F C F F+ C F F F
0.92 57% 11% 12% -18 +1 0.68 30% 0.5 .15 14% .68 76% .52 1.28 71% 33% 39% +8 +1 1.20 25% 1.3 .32 17% .50 90% .45
Dec
6		 Morgan St. D+ D F A+ D+ 46% 18% 36% D+ D+ C- A+ A- F A+ D- A+ D+ C F A+ D- 44% 19% 37% F F+ A C B C+ D+ F F
1.12 56% 14% 43% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.6 .53 20% .74 66% .49 1.07 54% 70% 25% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.9 .18 19% .36 91% .33
Dec
13		 Delaware St. C- A+ A+ F C+ 38% 16% 47% C- C B+ F D F B+ A+ A+ F F+ F F F 46% 28% 26% F F A- A+ A F F C+ F
1.14 82% 57% 24% +5 +1 1.13 38% 0.8 .31 24% .39 90% .36 1.21 62% 46% 67% +17 0 1.35 19% 0.4 .07 13% .43 68% .29
Dec
17		 Wake Forest D D- F F F 35% 12% 54% B- F C- A+ B- B- B+ B- B+ A+ C- F A+ A+ 38% 17% 45% C A A+ A+ A+ C- F B F
0.93 50% 17% 25% -13 +1 0.79 28% 1.3 .35 18% .35 76% .27 0.97 61% 63% 19% -5 0 0.94 17% 0.8 .14 14% .48 73% .35
Dec
20		 NC Central F+ C+ A F F 38% 18% 44% C- F B+ C- B- F A+ C- A+ C F A A+ C 40% 23% 36% C C B+ A- A- C- F F+ F
1.04 65% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 44% 0.9 .42 25% .45 71% .32 1.02 84% 27% 12% -4 0 0.94 23% 0.9 .19 17% .51 80% .41
Dec
31		 Winthrop B+ C+ F+ A+ B 52% 13% 35% A- B+ A+ C+ A+ D- B+ D+ B B- A+ A A+ A+ 48% 8% 44% D- A+ D- A+ B D- F D F
1.21 60% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 44% 1.1 .50 19% .38 71% .27 1.04 39% 25% 24% -17 +2 0.73 39% 0.8 .30 12% .54 78% .42
Jan
3		 High Point D+ B F C C+ 44% 16% 40% C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ D+ F F+ F C- F A+ A+ C- 51% 8% 41% F+ D+ A+ F C B- D C- D
1.01 65% 29% 33% +1 +1 1.07 33% 1.1 .36 23% .23 67% .16 1.21 77% 25% 24% +2 +3 1.12 22% 1.7 .37 15% .39 77% .30
Jan
7		 UNC Asheville F+ C+ F D- F 42% 17% 42% C F+ D F+ D- C B+ D B- D D B+ F D- 35% 26% 39% F F+ F A+ B+ D+ F+ A- D+
0.96 60% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.92 26% 0.8 .20 16% .37 65% .24 1.13 63% 33% 44% +6 -1 1.13 44% 0.5 .22 16% .39 62% .24
Jan
10		 Presbyterian B B- C A+ A- 43% 20% 37% C- B+ A- C B+ C D+ A+ B- D- F C- F F 43% 11% 45% F F A A A B- C+ A- B
1.22 62% 40% 44% +8 0 1.18 39% 1.0 .39 16% .26 86% .23 1.11 68% 40% 40% +9 +2 1.23 24% 0.9 .21 21% .32 63% .20
Jan
17		 Radford B C A- A- B 34% 26% 40% F+ C+ A- A+ A+ F+ C F+ D+ F F A+ F F 40% 16% 44% D+ F B A+ A D+ F A F
1.19 59% 46% 40% +6 -1 1.12 41% 1.4 .56 22% .33 67% .22 1.22 80% 25% 41% +11 +1 1.26 25% 0.6 .16 16% .53 65% .34
Jan
21		 Gardner-Webb B A+ A+ F B 37% 23% 40% D B- A+ A- A+ D D+ A- C A A+ F A- B+ 46% 17% 38% C- B F A+ C+ A+ C+ A+ B
1.30 79% 58% 29% +9 0 1.19 48% 1.3 .61 17% .26 80% .21 0.80 41% 50% 28% -9 +1 0.85 33% 0.6 .21 30% .25 58% .14
Jan
23		 Charleston Southern F+ F+ B- B C- 51% 33% 16% C- C- F F+ F F A+ A+ A+ B B B F D+ 35% 6% 59% D+ D+ D+ A B A+ F C+ D-
0.99 46% 41% 38% -4 -1 0.92 21% 0.9 .18 21% .52 82% .43 0.97 53% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.13 30% 0.7 .21 27% .33 65% .22
Jan
29		 South Carolina Upstate F C+ B F D- 41% 22% 37% D+ D- B- F F+ F F F F B F+ A+ D F+ 52% 8% 40% F F C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A-
0.85 59% 42% 20% -7 0 0.89 34% 0.8 .26 24% .17 44% .07 0.92 64% 0% 37% +2 +3 1.10 27% 0.5 .14 26% .31 44% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 High Point F B- F D- F+ 34% 23% 43% D- F+ B F D+ F F B+ F C+ D A+ B B- 50% 7% 43% F+ C+ A+ C- A+ C- D+ D- D-
0.93 63% 18% 30% -6 -1 0.89 36% 0.8 .30 29% .20 78% .16 1.12 65% 0% 30% -2 +3 1.04 17% 1.2 .21 13% .38 81% .31
Feb
4		 Gardner-Webb C+ A+ C C+ A- 58% 15% 26% B+ A- F F F C B F C- B- D+ C C+ D- 53% 6% 40% F F+ D+ A+ A- A+ F A D-
1.21 77% 38% 36% +12 +2 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 15% .33 60% .20 0.93 60% 33% 32% -1 +3 1.06 25% 0.5 .13 25% .38 60% .23
Feb
7		 Winthrop D- A F F F+ 25% 31% 43% F F C- F D C+ A+ F A+ A- F A+ A+ A- 32% 11% 57% C+ B+ A+ F A B+ F F F
0.96 69% 31% 23% -7 -2 0.84 27% 0.9 .24 16% .54 63% .34 1.02 67% 20% 22% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.6 .22 18% .63 88% .55
Feb
12		 UNC Asheville C- A F+ C+ B- 35% 18% 47% D+ C+ A F C+ C+ A- F C+ F C+ D+ F F+ 37% 33% 31% D- F+ D- C- D F C- F+ D
1.10 71% 33% 35% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.8 .31 15% .38 59% .23 1.17 56% 44% 47% +7 -2 1.12 34% 1.0 .34 12% .34 75% .25
Feb
14		 South Carolina Upstate F+ F F A+ D- 57% 20% 23% B- D C D D+ D+ B+ D B- B C+ A- A+ A- 50% 25% 25% C- B+ F F F A+ F A+ C-
0.98 38% 25% 57% -6 +1 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 17% .34 67% .23 0.90 54% 29% 21% -9 0 0.84 35% 1.3 .46 25% .37 57% .21
Feb
19		 Presbyterian D- A B B A 41% 39% 20% F B C- A+ B- F B F D C- F F D- F 44% 30% 26% C+ F B+ C+ B B- F A F
0.98 71% 44% 38% +8 -2 1.15 29% 1.3 .36 29% .34 50% .17 1.08 68% 54% 36% +10 -1 1.21 27% 1.0 .27 21% .50 62% .30
Feb
21		 Charleston Southern A F A D- D- 40% 31% 29% D+ D- A+ B- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F F F F 49% 4% 47% F F C- F D- A F D+ F+
1.26 37% 48% 30% -7 -1 0.85 43% 1.1 .47 9% .45 91% .42 1.13 69% 50% 44% +13 +3 1.34 29% 1.1 .32 24% .34 68% .23
Feb
28		 Radford B- D F A+ C- 41% 13% 46% C+ C B+ C B F+ A+ A+ A+ B- F C- B- F+ 35% 19% 46% C+ D- A A+ A+ D+ C+ A+ A
1.22 53% 17% 43% +1 +1 1.07 39% 1.1 .42 22% .61 86% .52 1.00 74% 40% 32% +4 0 1.11 21% 0.3 .05 16% .34 57% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 100.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.1 2.1 97.8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.9 97.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 15.9 5.5 94.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 41.7%
Lose Out 51.9%