Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.2 178
Results Rating -1.3 181
Consistency 0.14 108
Pace 72.1 84
Improvement -2.0 256

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 121 C C+ C B C-
Defense D+ 260 D+ C C+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 227 C+ 60% 127 -0.3 195
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 138 C- 37% 224 +0.3 155
Three Pointers 41% 188 C+ 35% 144 +0.3 167
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 233 C +0.6 143
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 156
Second Chance B- 32.7% 102 C- 1.00 235 C+ 0.33 142
Opponents' Steals C 9.7% 216
Other Turnovers C+ 6.7% 113
Turnovers C 16.4% 161
Freethrows B 0.35 51 C+ 73% 176 B 0.25 56
Total Offense C+ +1.8 121

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 169 C 11.1% 181
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 10% 356 B- 4.0% 115
Three Pointers D 78% 305 D+ 1.2% 280
Total D+ 51% 284 C 5.5% 180


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 142 B- 55% 94 -0.5 160
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 161 D 42% 328 +1.1 276
Three Pointers 39% 238 F 39% 358 +2.2 291
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 175 D+ +2.6 285
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 269
Second Chance D+ 32.9% 287 B- 0.98 101 C 0.32 224
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.4% 112
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 235
Turnovers C+ 17.2% 145
Freethrows B 0.26 64 F+ 77% 355 B- 0.20 106
Total Defense D+ -3.0 260

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 39% 25 C 10.5% 195
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 123 C- 3.8% 231
Three Pointers C 84% 190 B+ 1.9% 35
Total B- 51% 85 C 5.7% 165

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 102 17.1 148
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 62 0.19 254
Consistency 0.15 340 0.12 119
Improvement -0.7 228 -1.2 251

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 188 176 159
Results Rating Rank 210 184 135
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 27% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round16% 27% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 415 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 14 @Tennessee L 61 - 76 3% -11  7% 0 - 1 B- +7 D+ -3 F D+ A+ A +9 B+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 197 Lipscomb W 92 - 77 65% +8  95% 1 - 1 B +10 A+ +16 A A+ A+ D -6 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 145 @Winthrop L 69 - 105 31% -16  5% 1 - 2 F -32 F -15 F D+ F F -12 F D D+
 Sat, Nov 22 294 @Eastern Kentucky W 95 - 83 64% +11  93% 2 - 2 B- +7 A +11 A+ B+ F D+ -5 C D D+
 Wed, Nov 26 172 Appalachian St. W 75 - 67 61% -3  21% 3 - 2 C+ +4 B+ +9 C- A+ C- D+ -4 B- D- D-
 Sat, Nov 29 241 @Elon W 91 - 84 51% +1  46% 4 - 2 B- +5 B- +4 C+ F+ A C+ +1 C+ B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 304 Georgia St. W 78 - 67 84% +5  75% 5 - 2 C -1 D+ -3 F+ B- C+ C+ +2 F+ A B+
 Sat, Dec 13 40 @Clemson L 63 - 70 6% +0  52% 5 - 3 B +10 B- +5 A- D- A B +4 C- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 51 @Central Florida L 63 - 81 8% -10  0% 5 - 4 C- -4 F -10 F C F B+ +7 A- B B-
 Sat, Dec 20 128 @Washington St. L 78 - 84 27% -4  13% 5 - 5 C -1 D+ -2 C- C- B- B- +2 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 186 @Furman L 72 - 74 41% -3  12% 5 - 6 0 - 1 C -1 C +1 F+ B+ A- C- -2 D- B D
 Sat, Jan 3 140 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 30% -1  36% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C- -2 C +1 C+ F+ C- C- -3 A F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 343 The Citadel W 101 - 63 91% +21  99% 6 - 7 1 - 2 A +22 A+ +24 A+ A+ D+ C+ +0 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 240 Wofford W 109 - 97 73% +7  96% 7 - 7 2 - 2 C+ +4 A+ +18 A+ A+ D+ F -14 F+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 358 @VMI W 77 - 67 87% +2  68% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -3 D+ -3 F A+ F C -0 F A B-
 Sat, Jan 17 297 @UNC Greensboro W 102 - 92 66% +12  98% 9 - 7 4 - 2 C+ +5 A+ +16 A+ A+ F F -12 F B F
 Wed, Jan 21 232 Western Carolina W 88 - 76 71% +14  98% 10 - 7 5 - 2 B- +5 B +7 D- A+ A C- -2 C D- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 240 @Wofford L 77 - 80 51% -1  34% 10 - 8 5 - 3 C- -5 C- -2 D+ F C+ C- -3 D+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 297 UNC Greensboro W 95 - 77 83% +14  86% 11 - 8 6 - 3 B- +7 B +7 C- A B- C -1 B+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 358 VMI W 95 - 81 94% +4  78% 12 - 8 7 - 3 D+ -5 B- +4 D A- B F -10 F B- D+
 Thu, Feb 5 286 @Chattanooga L 75 - 79 62% +1  52% 12 - 9 7 - 4 D -8 D -6 F D C- C- -2 F A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 191 @Samford L 49 - 69 42% -15  2% 12 - 10 7 - 5 F -19 F -24 F F C B +4 C- B B-
 Wed, Feb 11 186 Furman W 69 - 64 64% -2  23% 13 - 10 8 - 5 C +0 D+ -4 F D+ A- B +5 A C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 343 @The Citadel W 70 - 54 79% -1  28% 14 - 10 9 - 5 B- +6 C- -1 B- F F A +9 A+ F B+
 Thu, Feb 19 286 Chattanooga L 90 - 94 80% -2  20% 14 - 11 9 - 6 D- -14 A+ +16 A+ C A F -30 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 21 191 Samford W 89 - 86 65% +2  70% 15 - 11 10 - 6 C- -2 B+ +9 A+ D+ F F -11 C- D+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 232 @Western Carolina L 74 - 78 49% +0  44% 15 - 12 10 - 7 C- -5 D+ -3 D+ D D C- -2 D+ B+ C+
 Sat, Feb 28 140 East Tennessee St. W 82 - 76 53% +8  98% 16 - 12 11 - 7 C+ +4 A +13 A C+ A F+ -9 C D F+
 Sat, Mar 7 232 Western Carolina W 84 - 81 60%
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 7 -1 C+ +2 C- C C- D+ -3 C+ C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ C- C+ C 37% 41% 41% C- C B- C- C+ C B C+ B D+ B- D F D+ 40% 21% 39% C D+ D+ B- C C+ B F+ B-
1.11 60% 37% 35% +1 0 1.03 33% 1.0 .33 16% .35 73% .25 1.13 55% 42% 39% +3 0 1.08 33% 1.0 .32 17% .26 77% .27
Nov
3		 Tennessee D+ F F F F 31% 25% 44% C- F C+ F D+ A+ B B+ B+ A A+ F F A- 52% 20% 28% D+ B+ C+ D D+ A+ B+ A+ A
0.87 44% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.71 25% 0.7 .18 7% .32 71% .23 1.08 42% 50% 43% -2 +1 1.00 46% 1.2 .54 27% .29 60% .18
Nov
9		 Lipscomb A+ A+ F A+ A 43% 22% 34% C+ A B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C- D- D C+ A+ D C 42% 9% 49% D+ C F D+ F C- A+ F A
1.34 76% 23% 45% +10 0 1.22 37% 1.4 .50 12% .21 69% .15 1.12 57% 20% 37% 0 +2 1.05 33% 1.1 .36 16% .12 86% .10
Nov
15		 Winthrop F C A+ F F+ 27% 29% 43% F F F A+ D+ F A F C+ F D+ F F F 42% 19% 39% B- F C- D- D D+ F B F
0.85 57% 53% 18% -6 -2 0.86 19% 1.4 .27 23% .42 62% .26 1.30 58% 45% 45% +8 0 1.19 34% 1.2 .39 14% .53 70% .37
Nov
22		 Eastern Kentucky A A D+ A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% F+ A+ A+ D B+ F D+ B C D+ A+ D+ F D 19% 42% 39% A+ C F B+ D D+ C+ F C-
1.33 73% 40% 65% +24 -2 1.46 47% 0.9 .43 20% .31 78% .24 1.16 27% 42% 45% +2 -4 0.98 41% 0.9 .39 15% .25 80% .20
Nov
26		 Appalachian St. B+ F C- A C+ 17% 30% 53% F C- A A A+ C- A A+ A+ D+ F C+ A+ C+ 38% 28% 34% A- B- D- D+ D- D- A A+ A
1.21 25% 36% 40% -2 -3 0.94 41% 1.1 .46 14% .36 84% .30 1.08 79% 36% 12% -4 -1 0.92 35% 1.1 .38 13% .24 54% .13
Nov
29		 Elon B- C+ F A+ C+ 31% 17% 52% C C+ F B+ F+ A A+ B+ A+ C+ C- A+ C+ B- 49% 7% 44% D C+ F A+ B A+ F C- F
1.18 59% 22% 43% +4 0 1.11 22% 1.3 .27 12% .44 77% .34 1.09 59% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.02 45% 0.6 .26 23% .44 73% .32
Dec
2		 Georgia St. D+ B- F F F+ 33% 20% 47% D+ F+ C+ B- B- C+ A+ B+ A+ C+ C+ F C F 28% 30% 42% C F+ B A+ A B+ B- A+ A-
1.10 63% 30% 26% -6 0 0.90 35% 1.1 .38 15% .50 77% .38 0.94 53% 50% 32% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.7 .16 20% .26 67% .17
Dec
13		 Clemson B- A+ A+ F+ A 27% 31% 42% D- A- F A+ D- A F F F B F+ F B- C- 40% 10% 50% D+ C- B A+ A+ C B+ D+ B
0.99 71% 50% 27% +3 -2 1.04 10% 1.3 .13 14% .18 50% .09 1.10 70% 60% 32% +5 +1 1.16 26% 0.3 .06 14% .29 75% .22
Dec
17		 Central Florida F D+ F D- F+ 33% 29% 38% D F C C+ C F A+ C+ A+ B+ B+ D C B+ 39% 30% 31% B+ A- D- A+ B B- C+ C C+
0.88 53% 23% 29% -9 -1 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 24% .44 75% .33 1.13 52% 44% 35% 0 -1 1.00 40% 0.9 .38 17% .28 76% .22
Dec
20		 Washington St. D+ C+ A+ F C 28% 33% 39% F C- B- F C- B- F+ F F B- C F F F 37% 20% 43% C+ F A+ A+ A+ C- D A+ C
1.04 59% 55% 25% 0 -2 0.98 31% 0.9 .27 13% .22 50% .11 1.12 63% 60% 50% +17 0 1.35 17% 0.4 .07 17% .32 65% .21
Dec
31		 Furman C F C D+ D- 32% 35% 33% F F+ B- A B+ A- F A F+ C- B- C F D- 45% 14% 41% C- D- F A+ B D F A D-
1.07 39% 40% 32% -7 -2 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 10% .15 78% .12 1.10 57% 43% 43% +5 +1 1.16 36% 0.6 .22 16% .39 59% .23
Jan
3		 East Tennessee St. C A D- D+ C+ 38% 13% 48% C+ C+ C+ F F+ C- C+ D C C- A+ F A A+ 58% 7% 35% F A F C F B- F F F
1.06 70% 29% 32% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.5 .17 19% .32 71% .22 1.15 44% 67% 27% -10 +3 0.88 44% 1.1 .50 18% .49 85% .42
Jan
7		 The Citadel A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% C- A+ A+ A A+ D+ A A+ A+ C+ A F F F+ 34% 10% 56% D- F+ F+ F F A+ C+ F C-
1.54 65% 50% 54% +20 +1 1.43 48% 1.3 .60 17% .37 90% .33 0.96 43% 50% 39% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.2 .39 27% .25 75% .19
Jan
10		 Wofford A+ A+ F A+ A+ 54% 10% 35% B+ A+ C A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C- F F 41% 8% 51% D F+ D- F F C+ C- F+ D
1.42 73% 20% 59% +19 +2 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 17% .49 87% .42 1.27 38% 40% 50% +4 +2 1.14 33% 1.2 .40 16% .34 77% .26
Jan
15		 VMI D+ A- C- F F 47% 11% 42% A- F A+ C A+ F A+ C+ A+ C D+ C+ F F 23% 17% 60% B+ F D+ A+ A B- A+ D A+
1.16 71% 40% 11% -8 +2 0.89 59% 1.0 .62 21% .46 75% .35 1.01 58% 33% 41% +5 -1 1.11 28% 0.5 .13 18% .07 75% .06
Jan
17		 UNC Greensboro A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 40% 19% 42% C+ A+ A+ B- A+ F A+ C+ A+ F F+ D+ F F 40% 18% 42% F+ F B- B+ B F C+ D- C
1.38 76% 38% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.2 .52 20% .70 73% .51 1.25 65% 40% 42% +8 +1 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 9% .34 74% .25
Jan
21		 Western Carolina B B- A+ F F 44% 11% 44% B+ D- A+ C A+ A A+ D A+ C- B C C+ B- 42% 10% 48% F C F C D- A+ C+ D+ C
1.26 63% 67% 21% -4 +2 0.98 47% 1.0 .47 10% .45 71% .32 1.09 50% 40% 32% -5 +2 0.96 41% 1.0 .41 23% .28 73% .20
Jan
24		 Wofford C- C- B- D+ D+ 43% 13% 44% C+ D+ D F F C+ A- A+ A+ C- B+ C+ F D 52% 21% 27% C D+ F F+ F C+ A- F B-
1.10 57% 43% 33% -1 +1 1.04 25% 0.2 .06 14% .37 86% .32 1.15 48% 36% 50% +1 +1 1.06 37% 1.2 .43 16% .26 80% .20
Jan
29		 UNC Greensboro B C F B C- 26% 12% 62% C+ C- B A+ A B- A- C- B+ C C A+ A A- 38% 18% 45% D- B+ D- D- F+ D- A D+ B+
1.31 60% 29% 39% +4 0 1.10 36% 1.4 .49 12% .33 71% .24 1.06 57% 20% 28% -8 0 0.88 32% 1.1 .36 12% .28 72% .20
Jan
31		 VMI B- C+ A+ F D- 38% 9% 53% B+ D B A- A- B A+ B- A+ F D+ C+ D- F 25% 5% 69% D F B+ D+ B- D+ C+ F C-
1.31 65% 80% 29% +2 +1 1.09 43% 1.2 .51 14% .46 76% .35 1.11 57% 33% 37% +2 +1 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 15% .26 81% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Chattanooga D D- F D F 37% 26% 37% D F A F D C- A+ B+ A+ C- F A+ F F 36% 18% 47% D+ F A- A+ A+ A+ F C F
1.04 50% 18% 31% -10 -1 0.81 42% 0.8 .32 14% .69 77% .53 1.09 81% 25% 48% +15 0 1.33 14% 0.7 .10 24% .45 76% .34
Feb
7		 Samford F F F F F 33% 40% 27% F+ F D F F C C+ C+ C+ B B- F B- D+ 34% 26% 40% B- C- A+ F B B- C F+ D+
0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23 1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27
Feb
11		 Furman D+ F B- D- F 53% 14% 33% A F B- F D+ A- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ C A+ 35% 9% 56% C- A B+ D- C+ F B+ A- A-
1.04 37% 43% 29% -13 +2 0.80 34% 0.8 .27 11% .35 86% .30 0.96 42% 20% 32% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.1 .28 14% .23 62% .14
Feb
14		 The Citadel C- C- F A+ B 42% 19% 40% D+ B- F+ F+ F F A F B- A A+ F A+ A+ 29% 24% 47% B+ A+ D+ F F B+ C+ F D-
1.14 61% 25% 53% +10 +1 1.23 26% 0.9 .22 19% .36 61% .22 0.88 23% 45% 24% -15 -1 0.69 29% 1.4 .40 21% .25 92% .23
Feb
19		 Chattanooga A+ B A- A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% C- A+ D A- C A A+ F B- F F F F F 36% 22% 42% C F F C F D- D+ F+ D-
1.39 65% 44% 52% +16 0 1.35 27% 1.3 .36 9% .46 59% .27 1.45 72% 64% 48% +19 0 1.40 36% 1.1 .40 12% .30 82% .25
Feb
21		 Samford B+ A+ A+ A A+ 33% 31% 35% C- A+ D B- D+ F A+ D+ A+ F C B- F D+ 39% 37% 25% A C- D C- D+ F C F F
1.26 94% 53% 41% +20 -2 1.40 22% 1.2 .26 18% .44 72% .31 1.22 59% 33% 43% +2 -2 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 9% .36 87% .31
Feb
25		 Western Carolina D+ C+ A+ F D+ 46% 30% 24% D+ D+ C F D D A D+ B+ C- A+ F B- D+ 43% 20% 36% C- D+ C A B+ C+ F F F
1.08 61% 60% 17% +2 -1 1.04 28% 0.8 .21 17% .39 73% .28 1.14 42% 78% 31% 0 0 1.02 33% 0.8 .27 17% .48 93% .44
Feb
28		 East Tennessee St. A D+ D- A+ A+ 38% 17% 45% C A C+ C+ C+ A A+ F A+ F+ A- C- F C- 36% 24% 40% B+ C F B+ D F+ A- D+ B+
1.28 56% 29% 53% +10 0 1.24 31% 1.0 .31 14% .66 64% .42 1.19 50% 42% 40% +2 -1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 13% .25 79% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 16.1% 16.1% 14.4 0.9 7.8 6.8 0.6 83.9
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 14.4 83.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 16.1% 100.0% 14.4 5.5 48.3 42.6 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 12.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 31.5%
Lose Out 40.3%