North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.9 132
Results Rating +3.1 118
Consistency 0.15 168
Pace 66.2 245
Improvement +1.3 139

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 123 C C C+ D D+
Defense C 167 D B B- B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 309 C+ 59% 136 -2.3 266
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 191 C 38% 172 +1.0 122
Three Pointers 43% 139 C+ 35% 127 +1.8 120
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 276 C+ +1.2 121
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 151
Second Chance C+ 31.6% 140 C 1.02 201 C 0.32 153
Opponents' Steals C 9.7% 213
Other Turnovers B- 6.6% 91
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 146
Freethrows D 0.27 305 C 72% 209 D 0.19 291
Total Offense C+ +1.8 123

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 41% 294 C 11.3% 194
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 271 D 7.2% 310
Three Pointers B 90% 45 D+ 1.2% 277
Total C- 53% 224 C- 6.0% 232


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 291 D- 65% 336 +0.1 185
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 201 D+ 41% 294 +0.3 216
Three Pointers 46% 50 C- 35% 249 +3.4 319
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.1 134 D +3.9 325
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 308
Second Chance C+ 29.2% 139 B+ 0.90 26 B 0.26 60
Turnovers from Steals B- 11.0% 67
Other Turnovers C+ 7.6% 124
Turnovers B- 18.6% 72
Freethrows B 0.25 41 D 75% 313 B 0.19 65
Total Defense C +0.1 167

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 260 D+ 8.8% 265
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 203 C+ 5.9% 109
Three Pointers C- 86% 250 C- 0.7% 209
Total D+ 59% 265 D+ 4.5% 258

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 256 17.4 193
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 216 0.13 59
Consistency 0.15 327 0.13 240
Improvement +2.2 81 -0.9 237

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 144 133 120
Results Rating Rank 140 127 99
Conference Record 14 - 2 14 - 2 14 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37% 43% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round37% 43% 0%
Second Round2% 2% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 36 - 46 - 5
Quad 417 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 160 @Oregon St. L 65 - 67 46% -1  26% 0 - 1 C +1 D -5 C- F A- B+ +6 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 5 175 @UC Davis L 68 - 80 50% -2  43% 0 - 2 D -10 D -5 F B+ B- D -5 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 168 Cal St. Northridge W 90 - 68 70% +5  68% 1 - 2 A +18 C +2 F A+ A- A+ +14 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 17 121 Southern Illinois W 92 - 85 58% +4  79% 2 - 2 B- +7 A +13 A A- A- D- -7 F C A-
 Wed, Nov 26 192 Jacksonville St. W 56 - 43 65% +10  79% 3 - 2 B +11 F -13 C- F C A+ +25 A+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 28 147 @Arkansas St. L 80 - 85 OT 42% +1  40% 3 - 3 C -1 D+ -3 C- F+ C B- +2 C B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 206 @Montana W 81 - 72 55% +3  75% 4 - 3 B +10 B+ +8 D- A+ C+ B- +2 D+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 6 317 Northern Arizona W 69 - 68 91% +1  65% 5 - 3 D- -12 F -16 F D- F B +5 C- B+ B-
 Thu, Dec 11 329 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 69 83% +6  78% 6 - 3 C+ +3 D+ -3 F A+ D+ B+ +5 C+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 207 @Drake W 99 - 94 55% +9  94% 7 - 3 B- +6 A+ +20 A+ B+ A+ F -14 F A+ B+
 Sun, Dec 21 123 UC Irvine L 73 - 74 47% -3  15% 7 - 4 C+ +2 A- +10 B+ A+ F D- -8 F C- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 260 @UTEP L 66 - 76 67% -3  23% 7 - 5 D- -13 D- -7 C F F D -6 F C B
 Wed, Dec 31 284 South Dakota W 84 - 61 86% +10  58% 8 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +13 A +12 B A A- B- +3 C- B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 315 Oral Roberts W 79 - 77 2OT 90% -0  47% 9 - 5 2 - 0 D -10 D- -7 F B+ F D+ -3 C- C- C
 Thu, Jan 8 363 @UMKC W 97 - 73 94% +18  99% 10 - 5 3 - 0 B +9 A+ +19 A+ F A- F -10 F B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 251 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 76 65% -6  8% 11 - 5 4 - 0 C -0 A- +10 A- C- B- F -10 F+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 14 213 South Dakota St. W 76 - 65 77% +8  96% 12 - 5 5 - 0 B- +5 C+ +3 A+ F C+ B- +3 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 111 St. Thomas W 68 - 65 56% +3  74% 13 - 5 6 - 0 C+ +3 F+ -8 D+ F D+ A+ +12 B A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 244 @Denver W 82 - 77 63% +5  80% 14 - 5 7 - 0 C+ +3 B +6 B+ D+ C+ C- -2 D B- D
 Sat, Jan 24 315 @Oral Roberts W 86 - 58 78% +19  95% 15 - 5 8 - 0 A +22 A+ +19 A+ B- A+ B+ +6 D- B- A-
 Sat, Jan 31 284 @South Dakota W 89 - 84 OT 71% +7  90% 16 - 5 9 - 0 C +1 B +7 A- D+ F D -6 F C D
 Thu, Feb 5 244 Denver L 71 - 78 82% -5  7% 16 - 6 9 - 1 D- -15 F -15 F D C- C+ +1 C- B C
 Sat, Feb 7 251 Nebraska Omaha W 92 - 84 83% +8  85% 17 - 6 10 - 1 C -0 A+ +15 A C+ A+ F -15 F D+ C
 Sat, Feb 14 300 @North Dakota W 83 - 66 76% +4  61% 18 - 6 11 - 1 B+ +12 B+ +9 B- A+ F+ B +4 D+ B+ B+
 Wed, Feb 18 213 @South Dakota St. W 74 - 66 57% +2  72% 19 - 6 12 - 1 B- +8 C+ +3 C+ F A+ B+ +5 D A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 363 UMKC W 95 - 59 97% +23  98% 20 - 6 13 - 1 B+ +15 C+ +4 C+ A+ D- A- +8 C A- C-
 Thu, Feb 26 111 @St. Thomas L 62 - 84 33% -19  0% 20 - 7 13 - 2 F+ -16 D- -7 F C- A+ F -10 F D- D
 Sat, Feb 28 300 North Dakota W 96 - 63 89% +11  62% 21 - 7 14 - 2 A +22 B+ +8 A+ F+ C+ A+ +12 A+ C D+
 Thu, Mar 5 315 Oral Roberts W 79 - 68 85%
Totals 22 - 7 14 - 2 +2 C+ +2 A+ C+ D+ C +0 C+ C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ C C+ C+ 34% 37% 43% D+ C C+ C C C+ D C D C D- D+ C- D 35% 20% 46% C+ D C+ B+ B B- B D B
1.11 59% 38% 35% +1 -1 1.03 32% 1.0 .32 16% .27 72% .19 1.08 65% 41% 35% +4 0 1.10 29% 0.9 .26 19% .25 75% .20
Nov
3		 Oregon St. D C+ A+ F C- 44% 15% 41% B- C- D+ F F A- F F F B+ D+ F D+ F+ 29% 17% 54% C+ D- A+ A+ A+ C+ F B F
0.99 58% 50% 23% -5 +1 0.94 28% 0.7 .21 11% .19 64% .12 1.02 58% 57% 36% +5 0 1.12 17% 0.6 .10 18% .48 73% .35
Nov
5		 UC Davis D C- D F F 46% 17% 37% C+ F A+ D- B+ B- F+ A+ C- D F A+ F F 58% 9% 33% F F F B F A+ C+ B+ B-
0.99 56% 33% 10% -15 +1 0.74 47% 0.9 .40 17% .25 93% .23 1.16 69% 25% 47% +12 +3 1.31 44% 0.9 .40 26% .33 71% .24
Nov
11		 Cal St. Northridge C C- B+ F F 30% 18% 52% C- F A A A+ A- A- C+ A- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 50% 23% 27% B A+ C+ F+ D+ A+ B D C+
1.12 56% 45% 22% -9 0 0.84 39% 1.4 .54 12% .37 77% .28 0.84 54% 23% 20% -11 0 0.80 31% 1.2 .36 25% .26 69% .18
Nov
17		 Southern Illinois A F A- A+ A+ 25% 25% 50% D- A C A+ A- A- C+ A+ B+ D- F F A+ F 45% 29% 25% C- F F A C A- A F B
1.19 40% 47% 47% +7 -2 1.13 28% 1.4 .39 15% .29 84% .24 1.10 72% 69% 21% +10 -1 1.22 37% 0.7 .27 21% .21 77% .16
Nov
26		 Jacksonville St. F A F A+ B- 23% 34% 43% F C- D F F C C F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 43% A+ A+ C- A+ A A+ F A+ D-
0.90 70% 20% 42% +2 -3 1.00 23% 0.4 .09 16% .33 59% .19 0.69 42% 17% 22% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 24% .49 57% .28
Nov
28		 Arkansas St. D+ F C A+ C- 34% 23% 43% C- C- D+ F F+ C A+ F+ A B- B- A+ D+ C 37% 10% 53% D+ C A+ D+ B+ F C+ F D-
1.02 42% 38% 42% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.7 .18 15% .47 65% .30 1.08 55% 17% 35% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 14% .33 91% .30
Dec
3		 Montana B+ C A+ F D 28% 34% 38% F D- B+ A+ A+ C+ A A+ A+ B- D+ F C- F+ 22% 35% 43% A+ D+ D A+ B- C B+ A+ A
1.16 60% 56% 15% -4 -2 0.89 36% 1.5 .53 14% .37 91% .33 1.03 64% 56% 36% +9 -3 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 20% .23 62% .14
Dec
6		 Northern Arizona F F+ B- D- F+ 27% 37% 37% F F A- F D- F B F C- B F A- F+ D- 34% 38% 28% A+ C- C A+ B+ B- A+ F A
0.98 50% 42% 32% -2 -3 0.92 40% 0.7 .29 23% .33 61% .20 0.96 72% 30% 40% +4 -3 1.06 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 75% .10
Dec
11		 Cal St. Bakersfield D+ F F F F 43% 17% 40% C+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ D+ A+ B+ D A B C+ 35% 38% 27% B- C+ D- C+ D+ B+ C F+ D
1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44 0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30
Dec
13		 Drake A+ C- D A+ A+ 21% 23% 55% D+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ B- F+ C F F A F F 27% 20% 53% C+ F B+ A+ A+ B+ F F F
1.37 58% 31% 55% +16 -2 1.30 18% 2.0 .36 7% .33 64% .21 1.30 77% 30% 54% +19 -1 1.39 22% 0.3 .07 18% .49 90% .44
Dec
21		 UC Irvine A- C- D A+ A 31% 27% 42% D+ B+ A+ B+ A+ F A+ F C- D- F D+ C F 46% 24% 30% D F D+ C+ C- C- C B+ C+
1.11 50% 33% 42% +1 -1 1.02 51% 1.1 .54 29% .36 47% .17 1.12 70% 42% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.0 .33 17% .29 63% .18
Dec
22		 UTEP D- B- A+ F C+ 36% 32% 32% D C F F F F B C- B- D D F F F 22% 40% 38% A+ F F+ A C B F F F
0.97 63% 71% 14% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 24% .40 71% .29 1.12 64% 45% 42% +9 -4 1.12 32% 0.8 .26 19% .38 76% .29
Dec
31		 South Dakota A A+ A+ F B+ 40% 19% 40% D B A- B A A- C+ F C- B- A+ F F D 25% 30% 45% A+ C- C- A+ B+ A+ A- F C+
1.32 76% 70% 24% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.3 .52 13% .31 65% .20 0.96 36% 46% 40% +1 -2 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 24% .31 87% .27
Jan
3		 Oral Roberts D- F+ F D- F 39% 24% 37% F+ F A+ F B+ F A+ F A+ D+ C A C C- 31% 12% 57% C- C- D- B+ C- C A F B+
1.05 48% 31% 30% -8 0 0.85 52% 0.9 .45 21% .53 61% .32 1.03 56% 29% 33% -3 +1 0.98 33% 0.8 .28 19% .21 85% .18
Jan
8		 UMKC A+ A A+ A+ A+ 34% 19% 47% D+ A+ A- F F A- B+ B B+ F F F F F 39% 22% 39% D F F A+ B+ A+ F+ C+ D-
1.42 72% 50% 52% +20 0 1.42 44% 0.6 .26 13% .32 74% .24 1.06 67% 60% 39% +11 0 1.24 38% 0.4 .16 25% .33 65% .21
Jan
10		 Nebraska Omaha A- A+ A+ D A- 38% 16% 46% C+ A- F A+ C- B- F A+ D F F A+ F F+ 40% 17% 43% D F+ F D+ F B+ C+ F D-
1.26 79% 63% 30% +9 +1 1.22 20% 1.4 .28 13% .20 91% .19 1.23 74% 13% 40% +6 +1 1.15 38% 1.1 .42 19% .28 93% .26
Jan
14		 South Dakota St. C+ C B A+ A+ 24% 22% 55% D- A+ F+ F F C+ F A D- B- F A+ D+ D- 33% 16% 51% C D- A A+ A+ C+ B B B+
1.17 58% 45% 50% +15 -1 1.29 20% 0.5 .10 14% .22 83% .18 1.00 75% 25% 36% +5 0 1.12 22% 0.3 .06 17% .22 67% .15
Jan
17		 St. Thomas F+ A+ F B C 30% 30% 41% F D+ B+ F F D+ C F D+ A+ B- F C+ B 31% 6% 63% C+ B C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ B C
0.98 75% 13% 36% -1 -2 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 19% .27 67% .18 0.93 60% 67% 33% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.3 .06 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
22		 Denver B B+ D A+ B+ 37% 18% 45% C- B+ C- C- D+ C+ D- B- D C- B- B F D 33% 19% 47% F+ D A- D- B- D A+ B- A+
1.26 68% 33% 43% +9 0 1.22 32% 1.1 .35 12% .26 73% .19 1.18 53% 36% 44% +5 0 1.12 24% 1.3 .29 12% .07 75% .05
Jan
24		 Oral Roberts A+ B+ A A+ A 53% 8% 40% B+ A+ C- A B- A+ F A+ F B+ D+ C+ D+ D- 40% 17% 43% C- D- B C- B- A- A+ A- A+
1.38 64% 50% 43% +9 +3 1.26 31% 1.3 .41 10% .16 89% .14 0.93 58% 38% 35% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.0 .23 22% .19 67% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 South Dakota B C+ C+ A+ A 50% 13% 38% B- A- C- D+ D+ F F A F+ D F+ F C F 35% 13% 52% C- F A F C D C+ F D
1.20 61% 43% 48% +10 +2 1.25 31% 1.1 .34 20% .19 82% .15 1.13 67% 57% 33% +5 +1 1.13 19% 1.3 .26 15% .36 87% .32
Feb
5		 Denver F D F F F 42% 23% 35% D+ F F A- D C- B D+ B- C+ D F A+ C 35% 22% 43% D- C- A+ F B C C- F D
1.00 55% 17% 28% -10 0 0.83 25% 1.3 .33 14% .36 68% .25 1.10 61% 64% 27% +2 0 1.06 18% 1.6 .29 14% .31 84% .26
Feb
7		 Nebraska Omaha A+ B B- A+ A+ 34% 26% 40% D- A B- C- C+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F F B F F 31% 12% 57% D F B- F D+ C A D+ B+
1.37 67% 43% 48% +12 -1 1.25 32% 1.0 .32 7% .35 91% .32 1.25 69% 33% 48% +15 +1 1.33 23% 1.3 .30 16% .21 75% .16
Feb
14		 North Dakota B+ B F B C+ 49% 2% 49% A- B- A A+ A+ F+ D+ B C- B B+ F D+ D+ 44% 8% 48% D- D+ B- A B+ B+ D- C D
1.28 67% 0% 38% +6 +3 1.21 44% 1.6 .70 23% .34 76% .26 1.02 48% 50% 35% -3 +2 1.00 25% 0.9 .22 19% .38 70% .27
Feb
18		 South Dakota St. C+ A+ B+ F B- 33% 27% 41% D- C+ F D F A+ A+ D- A B+ F A+ C- D- 35% 20% 45% C+ D A+ A+ A+ C- C+ A+ B+
1.13 81% 46% 25% +4 -1 1.08 13% 1.0 .13 8% .43 69% .30 1.01 78% 20% 35% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.4 .08 15% .25 57% .14
Feb
21		 UMKC C+ D F A C 39% 7% 54% B C+ A A+ A+ D- F D+ F A- F+ D- A+ C 24% 24% 53% B- C A+ F A- C- C+ A+ A
1.23 54% 25% 42% +4 +2 1.15 46% 1.3 .59 19% .10 67% .06 0.76 64% 43% 23% -6 -1 0.86 13% 1.2 .15 18% .25 38% .09
Feb
26		 St. Thomas D- D+ F F F 44% 13% 42% B- F D B+ C- A+ B- D- C F F F D F 31% 6% 63% C+ F B+ F D- D A+ F A+
0.95 57% 0% 18% -16 +1 0.73 24% 1.3 .31 11% .29 71% .21 1.29 76% 100% 38% +13 +1 1.31 15% 1.8 .27 12% .12 86% .10
Feb
28		 North Dakota B+ A A+ A+ A+ 35% 12% 54% C- A+ F C F+ C+ D A C A+ A+ F A+ A+ 33% 7% 59% C- A+ B+ F+ C D+ D F F+
1.31 72% 50% 54% +22 +1 1.48 25% 1.2 .29 19% .34 80% .27 0.86 39% 75% 19% -17 +1 0.70 23% 1.2 .28 14% .36 78% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 37.1% 37.1% 13.4 2.7 18.2 15.1 1.1 63.0
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 37.1% 37.1% 0.0% 13.4 63.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 37.1% 100.0% 13.4 7.2 49.1 40.7 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 30.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.0%
Lose Out 13.1%