Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -3.6 220
Results Rating -3.5 227
Consistency 0.14 99
Pace 72.4 77
Improvement -5.1 341

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 280 D+ C D- B- D+
Defense C 149 D D+ A F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 67 D+ 54% 285 +0.8 153
2 Pt. Jumpers 57% 26 C 39% 157 +3.1 45
Three Pointers 29% 360 C- 33% 230 -6.7 349
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 281 D+ -2.1 256
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 270
Second Chance C+ 31.2% 154 C- 0.98 264 C 0.31 182
Opponents' Steals C 9.7% 202
Other Turnovers F 9.9% 360
Turnovers D- 19.5% 333
Freethrows C+ 0.32 133 B- 75% 89 B- 0.24 107
Total Offense D+ -4.2 280

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 37% 336 D+ 12.3% 261
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 101 C 5.4% 220
Three Pointers C+ 86% 129 C+ 0.8% 164
Total D- 46% 336 D 7.0% 323


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 258 D+ 62% 280 +0.0 178
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 268 D 42% 306 -0.4 159
Three Pointers 46% 48 D 37% 300 +4.4 341
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 205 D +3.7 320
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 314
Second Chance D 33.3% 300 C- 1.07 257 D+ 0.36 294
Turnovers from Steals A- 12.9% 15
Other Turnovers A- 9.1% 18
Turnovers A 22.0% 8
Freethrows F+ 0.39 353 C- 73% 239 F+ 0.28 354
Total Defense C +0.6 149

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 263 C 11.5% 150
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 200 C- 4.4% 203
Three Pointers C- 86% 238 D 0.2% 339
Total D+ 60% 283 C- 5.0% 213

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 189 16.1 18
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 44 0.18 212
Consistency 0.11 105 0.13 227
Improvement -5.9 358 +0.7 159

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 242 224 201
Results Rating Rank 243 221 196
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 6 - 12
Conference Finish 7 6 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 80% 61% 100%
First Four1% 1% 2%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 33 - 53 - 13
Quad 48 - 411 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 41 @SMU L 76 - 96 4% -7  3% 0 - 1 C- -4 C+ +2 D C D D -5 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 5 58 @LSU L 60 - 96 7% -19  2% 0 - 2 F -23 F+ -10 F D+ B F -14 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 77 55% +13  98% 1 - 2 C+ +3 A- +11 B+ A+ B- D- -7 D+ D- B-
 Tue, Nov 11 174 Merrimack W 76 - 62 52% +5  81% 2 - 2 B +10 D -4 B D F A+ +14 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 47 @Baylor L 81 - 94 6% -10  2% 2 - 3 C +2 B +6 A A+ F D+ -4 F+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 218 @Rice W 90 - 74 38% +3  49% 3 - 3 A- +16 B +7 A+ F+ D+ A- +7 D+ A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 1 37 @Cincinnati L 58 - 76 4% -8  8% 3 - 4 C -1 D -6 B- B- F B +5 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 88 - 64 92% +9  88% 4 - 4 C+ +5 C +0 B- F+ F B- +3 F F+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 319 Florida A&M W 78 - 54 80% +14  79% 5 - 4 B +11 F+ -9 D- A F A+ +18 A+ C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 179 @Texas Arlington W 69 - 63 30% +6  91% 6 - 4 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +3 B- C+ A+ B +5 C C A+
 Thu, Jan 1 97 Utah Valley L 85 - 91 28% -2  26% 6 - 5 1 - 1 C- -3 B- +5 D+ C+ A+ F+ -8 F+ C B
 Sat, Jan 3 134 California Baptist W 81 - 76 OT 41% +1  61% 7 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +3 A- F F+ C+ +1 F D- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 236 Abilene Christian L 80 - 84 64% -7  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D -11 C +1 F A+ A- F -12 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 15 261 @Southern Utah L 105 - 106 OT 47% -5  3% 7 - 7 2 - 3 C- -4 B- +4 C A F D- -8 F F C
 Sat, Jan 17 195 @Utah Tech L 71 - 75 33% -6  0% 7 - 8 2 - 4 C- -3 D -5 F+ F+ A- C+ +2 F+ C A+
 Wed, Jan 21 179 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 71 30% -1  29% 7 - 9 2 - 5 D+ -5 D+ -4 C D- F C- -2 D- C- C
 Thu, Jan 29 97 Utah Valley L 55 - 83 28% -4  38% 7 - 10 2 - 6 F -25 F -19 F C F D -5 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 195 Utah Tech L 59 - 65 56% -1  46% 7 - 11 2 - 7 D -11 F -14 F A- F B- +2 F A+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 134 @California Baptist L 55 - 56 21% +1  58% 7 - 12 2 - 8 C+ +4 F -12 C F F A+ +15 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 261 @Southern Utah W 62 - 59 47% +1  53% 8 - 12 3 - 8 C +0 F -14 F+ D F A+ +14 A- C A+
 Sat, Feb 14 236 @Abilene Christian L 59 - 73 41% +3  59% 8 - 13 3 - 9 F+ -15 F -14 D- F F C -1 F F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 236 Abilene Christian W 65 - 62 OT 64% -1  26% 9 - 13 4 - 9 C- -4 F -16 F F D A+ +12 B+ B+ A+
 Thu, Feb 19 261 Southern Utah W 78 - 74 69% +1  66% 10 - 13 5 - 9 C- -5 C+ +2 B- D+ D+ D -6 C- D+ B+
 Sat, Feb 21 195 Utah Tech L 72 - 80 56% +2  68% 10 - 14 5 - 10 D- -13 C- -1 F C+ A F -12 B- F C+
 Thu, Feb 26 97 @Utah Valley L 72 - 79 13% -5  2% 10 - 15 5 - 11 C +2 C+ +3 C+ D+ A C -1 C A+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 134 @California Baptist L 67 - 82 21% -11  0% 10 - 16 5 - 12 D -10 C -0 D+ A- F F -11 D+ F+ F+
 Thu, Mar 5 179 Texas Arlington W 68 - 67 53%
Totals 11 - 16 6 - 12 -4 D+ -4 B- D+ D+ C +1 C- B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C C- D+ 43% 57% 29% D+ D+ C+ C- C D- C+ B- B- C D+ D D D 36% 18% 46% C- D D C- D+ A F+ C- F+
1.03 54% 39% 33% -2 -1 0.96 31% 1.0 .31 20% .32 75% .24 1.08 62% 42% 37% +4 0 1.10 33% 1.1 .36 22% .39 73% .23
Nov
3		 SMU C+ A+ F B+ C- 22% 43% 35% F D C+ D+ C D A+ A+ A+ D F F F+ F 30% 33% 37% A D- A A- A+ C+ F D F
1.04 80% 15% 38% -3 -4 0.87 30% 0.9 .27 21% .61 83% .50 1.32 79% 53% 41% +15 -2 1.28 29% 0.9 .25 15% .68 79% .53
Nov
5		 LSU F+ F F F+ F 43% 17% 40% B+ F C- D D+ B C B C+ F F F F F 54% 10% 37% F F F D F A+ F C+ F
0.88 43% 11% 29% -14 +1 0.75 27% 0.8 .23 13% .30 72% .22 1.41 95% 50% 47% +28 +2 1.63 44% 1.3 .56 22% .55 76% .41
Nov
8		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- F A+ A+ A 37% 29% 34% F+ B+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A- A+ D- B+ C- F+ D+ 45% 17% 38% D+ D+ F C D- B- F B+ F
1.23 40% 58% 50% +8 -1 1.15 35% 1.4 .50 19% .66 78% .52 1.11 48% 38% 39% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.9 .35 19% .52 62% .32
Nov
11		 Merrimack D C+ A+ F A- 45% 37% 18% F+ B C+ F D F A+ C- A A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% D A+ F A+ D+ A+ F C F
1.03 57% 58% 22% +4 -2 1.06 42% 0.8 .35 23% .44 72% .32 0.84 53% 25% 18% -15 +2 0.76 38% 0.7 .26 29% .46 79% .36
Nov
14		 Baylor B A+ A+ C A+ 10% 71% 18% F A A+ F A+ F C+ A+ B+ D+ D- F F+ F 15% 33% 52% A F+ B- F F A+ D+ F F+
1.11 100% 54% 33% +16 -9 1.16 60% 0.8 .47 29% .27 86% .23 1.29 71% 63% 40% +15 -3 1.25 36% 1.9 .68 21% .34 85% .29
Nov
20		 Rice B A+ B B- A+ 50% 34% 16% C+ A+ D+ F F+ D+ A B- A A- F A D D+ 24% 27% 49% C D+ B+ A+ A+ C+ F A+ B-
1.21 84% 41% 38% +15 -1 1.30 29% 0.8 .21 17% .41 76% .31 0.99 69% 27% 37% +2 -2 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 19% .40 46% .18
Dec
1		 Cincinnati D F B A+ C+ 41% 20% 39% B B- D- A+ B- F C+ F D+ B B- A+ F F 17% 12% 71% C+ F F C- F A+ D+ A+ C+
0.82 33% 44% 41% -5 0 0.93 17% 1.8 .31 27% .27 57% .15 1.07 57% 20% 47% +11 0 1.24 44% 1.1 .47 30% .30 60% .18
Dec
16		 Mississippi Valley C C F A+ C+ 51% 14% 35% B+ B- D+ F+ F+ F D+ A+ B B- F+ F C+ F 43% 27% 30% F F B- F F+ A+ B- B B-
1.17 62% 29% 44% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 21% .37 91% .34 0.85 63% 58% 31% +6 -1 1.14 21% 1.4 .29 35% .24 67% .16
Dec
19		 Florida A&M F+ F A A+ F+ 61% 20% 18% B D- B- A+ A F A- D+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 13% 45% F A+ B+ F+ C A+ F B+ F
1.00 43% 50% 44% -4 +2 0.98 34% 1.3 .46 26% .40 74% .29 0.70 50% 17% 19% -16 +1 0.72 23% 1.0 .23 30% .44 63% .27
Dec
29		 Texas Arlington C+ B- C+ C+ B 35% 39% 26% F+ B- F+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F D B B+ C+ C- C 39% 21% 39% B- C C+ D+ C A+ F C F
1.05 63% 39% 33% +2 -3 1.00 20% 1.7 .34 11% .48 46% .22 0.96 47% 38% 33% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 27% .59 71% .42
Jan
1		 Utah Valley B- F+ A+ D- D+ 47% 22% 31% C+ D+ D A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ D- B- D F+ 59% 7% 35% F F+ C- B- C B F F F
1.12 46% 50% 29% -5 0 0.93 26% 1.3 .33 12% .48 88% .42 1.20 67% 33% 38% +7 +3 1.22 38% 1.0 .38 22% .61 75% .46
Jan
3		 California Baptist C+ A D- A+ A+ 33% 41% 26% F A- D- F F F+ A+ C+ A+ C+ F F D F 46% 13% 41% D F D D- D- A+ D C D
1.09 67% 32% 50% +6 -3 1.09 21% 0.6 .12 19% .64 74% .48 1.02 67% 50% 37% +7 +1 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 28% .34 72% .24
Jan
8		 Abilene Christian C F F+ F F 67% 22% 11% B F A- A+ A+ A- B+ A+ A+ F C- F F F 43% 23% 34% C- F F F F A- F C- F
1.10 48% 30% 0% -14 +2 0.78 35% 1.7 .61 19% .50 93% .46 1.16 58% 60% 40% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.6 .64 25% .48 73% .35
Jan
15		 Southern Utah B- D- D- A+ C- 61% 18% 21% A- C D+ A+ A F A+ B A+ D- F+ C+ D- F 40% 11% 49% F+ F C F F C F D+ F
1.16 50% 33% 57% +2 +2 1.09 28% 1.5 .44 18% .38 75% .28 1.17 67% 33% 38% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.5 .45 20% .58 74% .43
Jan
17		 Utah Tech D D- A+ F F 57% 17% 26% B F+ B+ F F+ A- A- F C C+ F A+ C F+ 38% 11% 51% D F+ B+ F C A+ F D+ F
1.02 55% 50% 13% -8 +2 0.90 39% 0.6 .22 11% .36 59% .21 1.08 88% 0% 35% +8 +1 1.20 23% 1.2 .27 23% .43 74% .32
Jan
21		 Texas Arlington D+ C+ D F C- 52% 34% 14% C+ C B+ F D- F B- A+ A+ C- D+ F A+ D 49% 8% 44% F D- B F C- C F B- F
0.95 61% 33% 17% -4 -1 0.93 34% 0.6 .22 27% .39 95% .36 1.05 58% 100% 24% -2 +2 1.03 31% 1.1 .35 21% .66 69% .45
Jan
29		 Utah Valley F F F B- F 37% 30% 33% D- F C+ D+ C F A+ D A+ D C- C- F F 51% 18% 31% B- F+ F F F A+ C- F F
0.76 25% 15% 36% -18 -1 0.63 32% 0.9 .29 26% .55 69% .38 1.15 61% 38% 50% +9 +1 1.22 43% 1.5 .65 28% .31 94% .29
Jan
31		 Utah Tech F F B- F F 46% 10% 44% B F A+ C- A- F B+ A+ A B- F C F F 30% 17% 52% B- F A- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+
0.93 45% 40% 14% -19 +2 0.69 44% 1.0 .44 20% .34 82% .28 1.02 71% 38% 50% +16 0 1.35 21% 0.0 .00 22% .16 38% .06
Feb
5		 California Baptist F A+ C+ F C+ 45% 39% 16% F+ C F F+ F F F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 27% 30% B+ A+ F B+ C- A+ F F F
0.84 70% 40% 0% -2 -2 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 20% .11 83% .09 0.85 26% 50% 23% -15 -1 0.70 47% 0.8 .35 24% .40 80% .32
Feb
7		 Southern Utah F F A D+ F+ 50% 32% 18% D+ F+ D+ D D F D D D A+ A+ A- D- A- 33% 23% 44% B- A- F A C A+ A F B+
0.90 44% 50% 33% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.9 .24 23% .23 67% .15 0.86 38% 27% 38% -7 -1 0.88 38% 0.8 .30 28% .16 88% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Abilene Christian F D A+ D+ D 48% 24% 29% D+ D- D+ F F F D F F C D B- F+ F 33% 15% 53% D+ F F C- F A+ F F F
0.84 55% 50% 33% +1 0 1.05 23% 0.7 .17 30% .41 55% .22 1.04 62% 33% 38% +4 0 1.10 45% 0.9 .42 31% .64 81% .52
Feb
16		 Abilene Christian F B- B F D- 35% 35% 30% F F F F F D A+ B- A+ A+ F B- A+ B 38% 32% 30% B+ B+ F A+ B+ A+ F A+ C-
0.86 64% 43% 25% 0 -2 0.98 10% 0.7 .07 25% .62 74% .46 0.82 67% 33% 14% -7 -1 0.85 39% 0.6 .22 26% .45 56% .25
Feb
19		 Southern Utah C+ A C F B- 62% 27% 11% B- B- B F D+ D+ B F+ C+ D A+ A+ F C- 35% 21% 44% C+ C- F A D+ B+ F F+ F
1.17 71% 40% 17% +5 +1 1.15 35% 0.8 .26 15% .30 65% .19 1.11 33% 22% 53% 0 0 1.02 42% 0.8 .33 22% .52 78% .40
Feb
21		 Utah Tech C- A- F C- D 26% 38% 36% F F D A+ C+ A D+ A+ C+ F C C- C+ C+ 21% 21% 57% A B- F F F C+ F F F
1.11 71% 20% 32% -5 -3 0.87 28% 1.3 .36 11% .26 87% .22 1.23 60% 40% 33% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.8 .67 17% .37 85% .32
Feb
26		 Utah Valley C+ D- F A+ C+ 49% 25% 25% C C+ B F D+ A D- F F C D+ D- A- C 56% 15% 29% C- C A A- A+ F F C F
1.04 48% 29% 50% -1 0 1.00 36% 0.7 .26 16% .27 63% .17 1.14 63% 43% 29% +1 +2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 13% .46 68% .31
Feb
28		 California Baptist C F B B+ C- 45% 36% 18% D- D+ A+ F A- F A+ B+ A+ F A+ D+ F D- 38% 25% 38% A- D+ F+ D- F+ F+ F F F
1.00 40% 44% 38% -5 -2 0.89 50% 0.7 .36 25% .46 78% .36 1.23 39% 42% 44% 0 -1 1.00 43% 1.0 .43 13% .50 83% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 24.6 24.6 5th
6th 19.8 25.2 45.0 6th
7th 27.6 2.9 30.5 7th
Total 47.4 52.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 52.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.9 51.7
5-13 47.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.8 46.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 16.0 98.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.4%
Lose Out 21.7%