Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 169
Expected Predictive Rating +1.4 139
Pace 65.0 277
Improvement -1.4 251

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #251 D C+ D- B B-
Defense C+ #103 B- C C D- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 32 50% 339 +0.2 169
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 204 40% 108 -0.1 186
Three Pointers 36% 283 31% 305 -4.2 317
1st FG Attempt 0.94 309 -4.2 309
Second Chance 36.1% 43 0.94 297 0.34 111
Turnovers 20.2% 342
Freethrows 0.35 57 73% 159 0.25 67
Total Offense -2.9 251

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 163 59% 211 -0.8 204
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 21 37% 137 -2.4 338
Three Pointers 33% 356 29% 21 +6.6 3
1st FG Attempt 0.95 67 +3.3 65
Second Chance 28.1% 85 1.11 296 0.31 184
Turnovers 16.9% 184
Freethrows 0.37 336 72% 136 0.27 328
Total Defense +2.3 103

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.6 101 -0.8 53
Shot Type Accuracy -4.7 327 -2.5 81
Possession Length 19.4 349 16.4 41
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 216 0.25 356
Improvement +2.0 #84 -3.3 #330

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 12% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 91% 97% 82%
.500 or above in Conference 83% 94% 70%
Conference Champion 3% 5% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 1%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round11% 12% 8%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 57.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 36 - 57 - 11
Quad 49 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 49 @New Mexico L 56 - 74 9% -12  4% 0 - 1 C- -4 F -14 F B- F A +10 B A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 179 Missouri St. W 67 - 49 63% +7  67% 1 - 1 B+ +14 F+ -9 C+ D- F A+ +23 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 273 @Evansville W 84 - 76 60% +3  68% 2 - 1 C+ +5 A- +10 A+ A+ F D -5 B- F D+
 Fri, Nov 21 192 Campbell L 67 - 71 55% +4  82% 2 - 2 D+ -6 F -14 F D+ D- A- +9 B F A
 Sat, Nov 22 232 @Weber St. W 74 - 73 51% +0  47% 3 - 2 C +0 C +0 C- D+ D+ C -0 C+ F+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 105 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 61 42% -3  23% 4 - 2 B- +6 C +1 C C- F B +6 A- C+ B+
 Tue, Dec 2 141 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 83 32% -10  14% 4 - 3 F+ -16 F -13 F A C- C- -2 D+ A- C
 Thu, Dec 11 149 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 58 - 50 34% +0  54% 5 - 3 B+ +12 D+ -3 D B F A+ +16 A A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 74 @Stanford L 60 - 76 15% -12  3% 5 - 4 D+ -5 F+ -8 C- F D+ C+ +2 C C B
 Mon, Dec 22 337 @Oral Roberts W 69 - 57 77% +6  92% 6 - 4 C+ +4 D- -7 D+ B- F A +11 A+ C+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 214 Tarleton St. L 63 - 69 70% -6  3% 6 - 5 0 - 1 D- -12 F+ -9 F C- F D+ -4 C- C- F
 Thu, Jan 1 138 California Baptist W 63 - 51 55% +4  81% 7 - 5 1 - 1 B +10 D -5 F B C A+ +16 B A A+
 Sat, Jan 3 284 @Southern Utah W 86 - 77 63% +1  48% 8 - 5 2 - 1 B- +5 B +6 A- D F+ C- -2 D+ C+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 260 Abilene Christian W 82 - 72 78% +6  91% 9 - 5 3 - 1 C +1 A- +10 C- A+ B D- -8 F+ D- D
 Thu, Jan 15 203 @Utah Tech W 56 - 52 46% +5  84% 10 - 5 4 - 1 C+ +4 F -18 F F F A+ +22 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 91 @Utah Valley L 74 - 86 20% -14  0% 10 - 6 4 - 2 C- -4 B- +4 F+ A+ D+ D- -8 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 214 Tarleton St. W 71 - 64 70% +1  45% 11 - 6 5 - 2 C +1 C- -2 D C B B- +3 C+ A A+
 Thu, Jan 29 284 Southern Utah W 80 - 61 81% +14  96% 12 - 6 6 - 2 B +9 C +0 D+ B D- A- +9 A A D
 Sat, Jan 31 138 California Baptist L 77 - 87 OT 55% -5  0% 12 - 7 6 - 3 D- -12 D -5 D C- D+ D -6 C- D+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 203 @Utah Tech L 84 - 87 2OT 46% -1  36% 12 - 8 6 - 4 C- -3 C +2 F+ A A+ D+ -4 C F F
 Sat, Feb 7 91 @Utah Valley L 60 - 81 20% -9  16% 12 - 9 6 - 5 D- -13 C +1 A- D- F F -18 F F+ D-
 Thu, Feb 12 260 @Abilene Christian W 67 - 65 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 284 Southern Utah W 75 - 66 81%
 Thu, Feb 19 203 Utah Tech W 72 - 67 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 91 Utah Valley L 69 - 72 39%
 Thu, Feb 26 138 @California Baptist L 63 - 68 33%
 Thu, Mar 5 214 @Tarleton St. L 69 - 70 48%
 Sat, Mar 7 260 @Abilene Christian W 67 - 65 58%
Totals 16 - 12 10 - 8 -1 D+ -3 D C+ D- C+ +2 B- C C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D- C+ D D 45% 19% 36% B- D B D+ C+ D- B C+ B C+ C- C+ A- B- 39% 28% 33% B B- B- D+ C C D- C+ D-
1.04 50% 40% 31% -5 +1 0.94 36% 0.9 .34 20% .35 73% .25 1.05 59% 37% 29% -2 -1 0.95 28% 1.1 .31 17% .37 72% .25
Nov
8		 New Mexico F C A F F 34% 15% 51% B+ F A+ F B- F A+ D+ A+ A D F A+ A- 45% 8% 47% D B B A+ A+ B- F F+ F
0.78 57% 50% 14% -14 0 0.76 40% 0.8 .31 32% .49 71% .35 1.03 64% 50% 26% -2 +2 1.02 27% 0.7 .18 17% .45 81% .37
Nov
15		 Missouri St. F+ D C+ A C 44% 31% 25% B C+ B+ F D- F D F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 57% 18% 25% F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F C- F
0.98 57% 40% 42% +3 -1 1.06 40% 0.6 .25 22% .32 35% .11 0.72 52% 13% 9% -17 +2 0.70 30% 0.3 .08 25% .47 67% .31
Nov
18		 Evansville A- A- A+ A+ A+ 33% 28% 38% D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ D F+ A+ A- B 35% 26% 39% D+ B- D F F D+ F C+ F
1.23 69% 64% 47% +18 -1 1.36 56% 1.3 .72 31% .50 83% .42 1.11 69% 25% 28% -3 -1 0.93 26% 2.0 .53 18% .55 71% .39
Nov
21		 Campbell F F F C- F 56% 21% 23% B F C- D+ D+ D- B- F C A- C B- A+ B 51% 20% 29% C+ B C- F F A F A+ F+
0.91 48% 9% 33% -12 +1 0.81 30% 1.1 .33 20% .34 65% .22 0.97 57% 33% 23% -6 +1 0.91 34% 1.4 .47 23% .57 59% .34
Nov
22		 Weber St. C C+ F D+ D+ 58% 12% 31% A- C- D+ C D+ D+ F A+ F+ C D- B- A- C 40% 26% 34% A+ C+ A F F+ C B F D+
1.11 63% 17% 31% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 18% .22 83% .18 1.10 65% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 24% 1.7 .41 17% .31 88% .27
Nov
29		 Stephen F. Austin C F A+ A C- 59% 15% 26% A C A+ F C- F A+ A A+ B B+ D+ A A- 41% 37% 22% B- A- D+ B C+ B+ A- F B
1.07 39% 67% 40% -4 +2 0.97 41% 0.7 .30 21% .51 80% .41 0.99 48% 42% 27% -5 -2 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 16% .15 75% .12
Dec
2		 Arkansas St. F F+ F F F 45% 27% 29% C F A B- A C- A F B- C- F D A+ D- 40% 28% 32% A D+ C- A+ A- C F B- F
0.87 50% 23% 7% -19 0 0.63 36% 1.1 .40 17% .43 62% .26 1.14 76% 40% 24% +3 -1 1.06 39% 0.7 .28 19% .50 72% .36
Dec
11		 UT Rio Grande Valley D+ C+ B+ F D 30% 16% 53% C+ D A- C B F F C+ F+ A+ C+ A+ B A+ 36% 20% 43% B- A A+ B- A+ B- C- B C
1.00 62% 43% 26% -4 0 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 23% .25 73% .18 0.87 56% 11% 32% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 19% .24 73% .17
Dec
17		 Stanford F+ D+ D+ D+ D+ 46% 22% 32% B C- F F F D+ A+ F+ A+ C+ F+ A+ B+ C 57% 14% 30% C- C A F C B F D- F
0.89 53% 33% 31% -5 0 0.93 14% 0.8 .10 21% .54 69% .37 1.13 68% 17% 31% +1 +2 1.09 27% 1.3 .35 18% .58 78% .45
Dec
22		 Oral Roberts D- F F A+ D- 57% 2% 41% A+ D+ D+ A+ B- F B F+ C+ A B- B A+ A+ 46% 19% 35% C- A+ D- A C+ B F F F
1.03 40% 0% 44% -5 +4 1.00 29% 1.4 .42 21% .38 65% .24 0.85 50% 33% 12% -16 +1 0.71 32% 0.8 .24 21% .47 84% .39
Dec
29		 Tarleton St. F+ F D+ C- F 39% 21% 39% C- F C+ D+ C- F A+ C- A+ D+ D- C C D 35% 39% 26% A+ C- A+ F C- F F A+ B
0.96 47% 38% 33% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 27% .59 71% .42 1.05 63% 39% 33% +2 -3 1.00 20% 1.7 .34 11% .48 46% .22
Jan
1		 California Baptist D F F D- F 38% 29% 33% D F A- C- B C A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ C+ A+ C+ 33% 40% 28% A+ B A+ C+ A A+ C+ C+ C+
0.99 44% 25% 29% -12 -1 0.76 34% 0.9 .31 16% .43 87% .37 0.80 57% 35% 25% -5 -3 0.86 25% 0.9 .21 27% .30 71% .21
Jan
3		 Southern Utah B D- B+ A+ A 41% 22% 37% C A- F+ C+ D F+ A+ A- A+ C- F B+ A+ D+ 47% 22% 31% D+ D+ B+ D- C+ C F D- F
1.18 50% 45% 56% +10 0 1.22 24% 1.0 .24 18% .42 76% .32 1.06 71% 27% 25% 0 +1 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 19% .36 76% .27
Jan
10		 Abilene Christian A- D A- A+ C- 52% 26% 21% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ D- C F+ F F 28% 46% 26% A+ F+ A F D- D F B F
1.24 55% 45% 44% +4 0 1.10 46% 1.4 .63 20% .55 86% .47 1.09 55% 44% 50% +8 -4 1.10 25% 1.4 .36 18% .59 66% .39
Jan
15		 Utah Tech F F D F F 62% 13% 26% A- F C+ F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 23% 26% C- A+ D C D+ F D- A+ B-
0.83 41% 33% 25% -14 +3 0.79 33% 0.5 .15 24% .41 81% .33 0.77 44% 17% 7% -22 +1 0.58 32% 0.9 .28 12% .30 50% .15
Jan
17		 Utah Valley B- D+ F+ F F 41% 22% 37% C F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B A+ D- D+ D+ B C 44% 30% 26% A+ B- F F F F F A F
1.07 53% 30% 24% -10 0 0.83 42% 1.4 .58 22% .48 77% .37 1.24 64% 40% 31% +2 -1 1.04 45% 1.6 .73 16% .48 61% .29
Jan
21		 Tarleton St. C- C- A+ F F+ 49% 8% 44% A D C- C+ C B A+ D A+ B- D B A+ C+ 52% 34% 14% C+ C+ D A+ A A+ D- F F
1.05 58% 100% 24% -2 +2 1.03 31% 1.1 .35 21% .66 69% .45 0.95 61% 33% 17% -4 -1 0.93 34% 0.6 .22 27% .39 95% .36
Jan
29		 Southern Utah C C- F B+ D 53% 18% 29% B+ D+ A+ F B D- A+ B- A+ A- A+ F+ A A- 27% 43% 31% A+ A A A+ A D F A- F
1.14 56% 22% 40% -1 +1 1.02 51% 0.7 .37 17% .38 73% .27 0.87 31% 43% 27% -8 -4 0.78 20% 0.8 .15 17% .45 65% .29
Jan
31		 California Baptist D F A- D- D+ 32% 25% 42% D D A- F C- D+ C A B- D C- D+ C D- 36% 34% 30% A+ C- A+ F D+ F F B- F
0.99 42% 47% 28% -7 -1 0.86 34% 0.7 .23 17% .32 81% .26 1.11 56% 41% 33% 0 -2 0.98 28% 1.4 .38 13% .53 69% .37
Feb
5		 Utah Tech C D B F F 46% 18% 36% C F+ C A+ A A+ F F F D+ B D F+ C+ 48% 21% 31% C- C D- F F F D- C+ D
1.10 55% 42% 21% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.4 .47 10% .16 64% .10 1.14 54% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 33% 1.2 .39 12% .30 70% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Utah Valley C C A+ F A- 55% 24% 21% B- A- B+ F D- F A+ D- A+ F A F F F 37% 12% 51% B F D- D+ F+ D- F F F
1.02 56% 88% 14% +4 +1 1.12 36% 0.6 .23 25% .64 68% .43 1.38 47% 60% 52% +13 +1 1.29 42% 1.2 .50 17% .45 91% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.4 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 6.1 5.6 0.6 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.9 8.1 18.2 13.5 1.9 42.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 9.8 15.4 8.5 1.1 36.7 4th
5th 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.3 3.5 5th
6th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 0.6 4.0 12.0 23.8 27.8 20.8 9.0 2.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 71.1% 1.4    0.5 0.8 0.2
12-6 18.0% 1.6    0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1
11-7 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.0% 28.9% 28.9% 12.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.4
12-6 9.0% 23.2% 23.2% 13.3 0.1 1.2 0.7 0.1 6.9
11-7 20.8% 13.0% 13.0% 13.5 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.1 18.1
10-8 27.8% 9.2% 9.2% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.5 25.3
9-9 23.8% 7.8% 7.8% 14.4 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 21.9
8-10 12.0% 5.4% 5.4% 15.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 11.3
7-11 4.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.4 0.1 0.1 3.8
6-12 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 13.8 89.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.6 48.3 46.6 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 0.3%