Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.9 131
Results Rating +1.7 133
Consistency 0.16 238
Pace 74.0 45
Improvement +1.9 118

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 171 D C B B- C+
Defense C+ 112 C B B- F+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 125 F+ 49% 353 -2.5 278
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 237 D+ 35% 276 -1.2 249
Three Pointers 41% 186 C 34% 199 -0.3 187
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 133 D -4.3 319
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 304
Second Chance C+ 31.4% 144 C- 0.99 251 C 0.31 172
Opponents' Steals B 8.0% 50
Other Turnovers B- 6.4% 73
Turnovers B 14.4% 46
Freethrows C+ 0.32 138 B- 75% 101 B- 0.24 110
Total Offense C -0.4 171

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 230 C- 11.4% 210
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 117 D+ 6.4% 276
Three Pointers B 89% 71 C+ 0.8% 158
Total C+ 58% 132 C- 6.2% 244


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 317 C+ 57% 140 -3.5 65
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 119 D+ 41% 292 +1.3 295
Three Pointers 45% 75 C 34% 167 +1.7 269
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 78 C +0.1 186
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 155
Second Chance B- 28.0% 95 B 0.93 43 B 0.26 49
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.7% 90
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 162
Turnovers B- 18.0% 100
Freethrows F 0.40 359 B 70% 49 F+ 0.28 352
Total Defense C+ +2.3 112

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 305 C+ 11.8% 137
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 300 D- 1.4% 343
Three Pointers C- 85% 206 D+ 0.5% 269
Total D+ 60% 292 D+ 4.4% 268

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 90 16.9 108
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 129 0.12 41
Consistency 0.14 286 0.10 24
Improvement +1.0 136 +1.0 137

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 147 130 110
Results Rating Rank 169 133 93
Conference Record 11 - 9 12 - 8 13 - 7
Conference Finish 4 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18% 19% 16%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round18% 19% 16%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Missouri St. (Away) - 55.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 34 - 76 - 11
Quad 412 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 312 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 70 90% +9  92% 1 - 0 C -0 D -6 F B+ C B +5 D+ D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 294 @Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 79 74% -0  39% 2 - 0 C+ +3 C- -1 D+ F A+ B +4 F A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 199 Tennessee St. W 95 - 82 75% +9  96% 3 - 0 B- +8 B+ +8 C- B+ A+ C -1 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 18 Vanderbilt L 78 - 83 7% -6  16% 3 - 1 B+ +13 C- -1 B- D D+ A+ +14 B A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 54 South Florida L 91 - 97 OT 21% +5  73% 3 - 2 C+ +4 C- -0 C C+ C- B+ +6 B- A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 92 Wichita St. W 75 - 70 34% +1  54% 4 - 2 B +11 A- +11 B- C A+ C+ +0 C A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 295 Evansville W 80 - 79 88% +3  55% 5 - 2 D -10 D+ -3 D+ D D- D- -6 F+ C- B
 Wed, Dec 10 189 @Marshall L 61 - 77 53% -7  24% 5 - 3 F+ -15 F -16 F F C+ C+ +1 B C F
 Fri, Dec 19 64 Tulsa L 81 - 82 35% +3  84% 5 - 4 B- +5 B- +4 C- B A C+ +1 C A+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 192 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 78 54% -12  3% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -10 D -6 F C- C D+ -4 F A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 107 Sam Houston St. W 102 - 91 54% -1  33% 6 - 5 1 - 1 B+ +12 A+ +16 D+ A+ C D -5 C C+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 221 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 61 79% +7  93% 7 - 5 2 - 1 C -2 D+ -4 F B- B+ B- +2 A- C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 177 @New Mexico St. L 64 - 80 50% -16  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D- -14 D- -8 F B+ A+ D- -7 C F+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 260 @UTEP W 68 - 56 67% +0  45% 8 - 6 3 - 2 B +9 D -5 F+ D A- A+ +15 A A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 205 Missouri St. W 87 - 72 76% +6  72% 9 - 6 4 - 2 B +10 A +14 C+ A+ A D+ -3 B- D- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 159 Kennesaw St. L 65 - 81 68% -5  15% 9 - 7 4 - 3 F -19 F -15 F F A D+ -3 D+ A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 115 Liberty L 69 - 76 56% -5  10% 9 - 8 4 - 4 D+ -7 D -4 D C+ D C- -3 D+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 107 @Sam Houston St. L 58 - 73 32% -14  0% 9 - 9 4 - 5 D+ -8 F -13 F B+ F B +4 B+ F D-
 Wed, Jan 28 159 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 72 45% +0  35% 9 - 10 4 - 6 C +0 D- -7 F B+ A A- +7 C A- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 163 @Middle Tennessee W 65 - 60 47% +1  57% 10 - 10 5 - 6 B- +8 D -6 C- F B+ A+ +14 B- A+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 192 Jacksonville St. L 66 - 71 75% -1  32% 10 - 11 5 - 7 D -10 F -13 F F B B- +3 A+ F+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 200 Florida International W 80 - 70 75% -1  36% 11 - 11 6 - 7 C+ +5 B- +5 F B- A+ C+ +0 C B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 163 Middle Tennessee W 82 - 80 70% +3  68% 12 - 11 7 - 7 C -1 B- +4 B+ B- F D -5 C+ F C+
 Wed, Feb 18 275 @Delaware W 88 - 87 OT 69% -7  3% 13 - 11 8 - 7 C- -2 A- +11 C- A+ C+ F -13 D F F
 Sat, Feb 21 115 @Liberty W 94 - 73 34% +8  74% 14 - 11 9 - 7 A+ +27 A+ +19 B A+ A A- +8 C- A+ A-
 Thu, Feb 26 177 New Mexico St. W 93 - 70 72% +21  99% 15 - 11 10 - 7 A +19 B- +4 A+ F A- A+ +13 A+ A- B
 Sat, Feb 28 260 UTEP W 97 - 65 84% +13  96% 16 - 11 11 - 7 A+ +23 A+ +16 A+ C- A+ B+ +6 A C- B
 Thu, Mar 5 205 @Missouri St. W 74 - 73 55%
 Sat, Mar 7 200 @Florida International W 81 - 80 55%
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 8 +2 C +0 C D C+ C+ +2 C B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C F+ D+ C D 40% 33% 41% C+ D C+ C- C B C+ B- B- C+ C+ D+ C C 33% 22% 45% B- C B- B B B- F B F+
1.08 49% 35% 34% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 14% .32 75% .24 1.05 57% 41% 34% 0 -1 1.01 28% 0.9 .26 18% .40 70% .22
Nov
3		 Tennessee Tech D F A F F 54% 26% 20% C+ F B- A- B+ C A+ B A+ B B F C+ D+ 30% 17% 53% C- D+ B F D+ A+ A- A+ A+
1.08 37% 46% 20% -13 0 0.76 33% 1.4 .46 14% .54 80% .43 0.92 50% 56% 32% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.3 .33 25% .21 50% .10
Nov
10		 Eastern Kentucky C- B+ B+ F D+ 42% 27% 32% C- D+ D F F A+ B+ F C B F F B- F 10% 42% 48% A+ F A A+ A+ B- F+ A- D+
1.15 68% 50% 26% +4 -1 1.08 28% 0.5 .14 4% .39 64% .25 1.05 100% 64% 32% +13 -5 1.19 24% 0.5 .12 19% .33 65% .21
Nov
16		 Tennessee St. B+ B A+ F D 68% 8% 25% A+ C- B- A- B+ A+ A+ C- A C A F F F 30% 28% 42% C+ F B- A+ A+ B- F B- F
1.24 64% 75% 15% 0 +4 1.09 33% 1.3 .42 12% .47 72% .34 1.07 47% 50% 43% +5 -2 1.10 29% 0.4 .11 18% .54 74% .40
Nov
26		 Vanderbilt C- B- F B+ C+ 38% 18% 44% B B- B F D D+ A+ D+ A+ A+ D+ A+ D B 37% 20% 43% B- B A+ A- A+ A+ F A F
0.97 58% 11% 36% -3 0 0.96 32% 0.6 .18 21% .52 73% .38 1.03 67% 20% 38% +2 0 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 21% .58 70% .41
Nov
27		 South Florida C- C- C+ B- C+ 31% 29% 40% D C D- A+ C+ C- A- C- B+ B+ A- A+ D- B- 47% 13% 40% B- B- A- A+ A+ C+ B- D+ C+
1.00 53% 39% 36% 0 -2 0.98 23% 1.3 .30 21% .39 68% .26 1.06 47% 22% 37% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .29 16% .34 77% .26
Nov
28		 Wichita St. A- F A A B- 40% 29% 31% C+ B- B D- C A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B- B- D C- 31% 29% 40% A- C C- A+ A C- F F F
1.18 42% 50% 40% 0 -1 1.00 32% 0.8 .26 11% .41 78% .32 1.10 53% 36% 37% 0 -2 0.98 40% 0.7 .28 14% .48 81% .38
Dec
6		 Evansville D+ F F+ A+ D 45% 24% 31% B- D+ B+ F D D- A+ C- A+ D- D B- F F 12% 33% 56% A+ F+ F A+ C- B F A+ D+
1.10 44% 31% 53% +1 0 1.04 38% 0.6 .24 19% .39 74% .29 1.08 67% 35% 45% +9 -3 1.13 31% 0.8 .26 21% .40 57% .22
Dec
10		 Marshall F F+ F+ D- F 35% 27% 38% D+ F C F F C+ C+ C- C+ C+ B+ D C- B- 26% 40% 34% A+ B D B+ C F C A- B-
0.89 50% 29% 30% -8 -1 0.85 34% 0.4 .14 16% .36 71% .26 1.12 53% 43% 35% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .25 67% .17
Dec
19		 Tulsa B- F F A+ D+ 38% 13% 48% B- C- C+ A- B A A+ A A+ C+ D F B- C- 29% 8% 63% B C A+ B A+ D F A F
1.14 40% 14% 44% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.3 .35 11% .38 79% .30 1.16 64% 75% 33% +4 +1 1.13 17% 1.2 .20 13% .52 72% .37
Dec
29		 Jacksonville St. D F F F F 31% 13% 56% C F A+ F C- C B- F C- D+ D- F F F 46% 3% 51% F+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F
0.97 41% 29% 27% -13 0 0.78 44% 0.6 .26 16% .36 67% .24 1.13 63% 100% 50% +16 +3 1.40 20% 0.6 .12 25% .75 69% .52
Jan
2		 Sam Houston St. A+ F F B- D 35% 13% 53% B D+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ B- A+ D D- D+ C C- 33% 25% 43% B+ C D+ B+ C+ D+ C- B C
1.32 47% 29% 34% -5 +1 0.95 49% 1.5 .73 17% .42 74% .31 1.18 65% 40% 35% +3 -1 1.07 39% 0.9 .34 15% .29 68% .20
Jan
4		 Louisiana Tech D+ F F F F 23% 9% 68% C F D A+ B- B+ A+ A A+ B- B B+ A B+ 31% 37% 31% A+ A- C+ D+ C- F D- A+ B-
1.02 30% 25% 27% -15 0 0.73 28% 1.5 .40 15% .45 80% .36 0.94 50% 32% 25% -9 -3 0.78 33% 0.9 .29 14% .34 47% .16
Jan
8		 New Mexico St. D- F C+ F F 37% 30% 33% D+ F B B- B+ A+ C+ D+ C D- A+ C F C 28% 28% 43% C+ C F C+ F+ B F D F
0.97 15% 38% 22% -22 -1 0.56 36% 1.2 .44 8% .38 74% .28 1.21 31% 38% 45% 0 -2 0.98 44% 0.9 .41 17% .62 76% .47
Jan
10		 UTEP D F B- F+ F+ 41% 31% 27% D+ F+ B F D A- C+ F D A+ F A+ A+ A- 17% 38% 45% A+ A C- A+ A+ A F F F
1.00 48% 44% 29% -5 -1 0.90 39% 0.7 .27 15% .38 59% .22 0.82 88% 22% 24% -8 -4 0.79 27% 0.4 .11 22% .42 77% .32
Jan
14		 Missouri St. A F A+ A+ C+ 38% 29% 33% B C+ B+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ D+ D F A+ B 24% 12% 63% D- B- D+ F+ D- C+ D+ F D-
1.32 50% 50% 44% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.5 .55 12% .50 83% .41 1.09 67% 50% 26% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.3 .43 18% .37 75% .28
Jan
17		 Kennesaw St. F F D B- F 37% 16% 47% C F C- F F A D- F F D+ A+ F F D- 27% 22% 51% A+ D+ B- A+ A+ D+ F F F
0.90 24% 33% 37% -11 +1 0.81 27% 0.5 .14 11% .36 65% .23 1.12 43% 45% 42% +4 -1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 15% .47 76% .36
Jan
21		 Liberty D F F A D 32% 21% 47% C- D C+ C+ C+ D A F B+ C- A+ A+ F D 33% 2% 65% B- D+ B- F C- B+ F D+ F
1.07 40% 30% 41% -3 -1 0.96 33% 1.3 .42 20% .33 65% .21 1.17 21% 0% 57% +10 +2 1.26 15% 1.3 .19 17% .45 71% .32
Jan
24		 Sam Houston St. F F F D- F 37% 14% 49% B F C A+ B+ F C+ B B- B C+ C A A- 49% 16% 35% D- B+ A F F D- F+ A+ A
0.87 44% 17% 29% -12 +1 0.79 29% 1.4 .41 28% .33 75% .25 1.09 56% 38% 28% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.6 .46 13% .34 40% .14
Jan
28		 Kennesaw St. D- F F D- F 40% 19% 40% C F B+ B B+ A C- A+ B+ A- A A+ F B- 59% 5% 36% F C B- A+ A- B- F B+ F
0.97 26% 27% 30% -17 0 0.68 36% 1.1 .38 11% .40 88% .35 1.01 46% 0% 44% -3 +4 1.02 31% 0.7 .23 18% .52 63% .33
Jan
31		 Middle Tennessee D F B- B- C- 35% 19% 46% C- C- C- F F B+ F B F A+ C- F A+ B 40% 20% 40% D B- B A+ A+ B F A+ F
0.98 47% 40% 36% -2 0 0.98 24% 0.4 .10 12% .17 80% .14 0.91 63% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.5 .14 18% .53 55% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Jacksonville St. F C F F F 26% 22% 52% F+ F C- F F B B+ A+ A+ B- A+ F A+ A+ 56% 26% 18% B+ A+ F C F+ A F D F
0.92 57% 17% 25% -12 -1 0.76 27% 0.6 .16 14% .39 88% .34 0.99 41% 50% 14% -12 +1 0.79 37% 1.0 .37 22% .90 72% .65
Feb
7		 Florida International B- D F D- F 40% 12% 47% B- F A- D B- A+ F A+ D- C+ F A+ D C- 35% 31% 33% A C B- A- B+ B- D+ F F+
1.17 52% 14% 30% -8 +1 0.88 44% 0.9 .40 10% .21 85% .18 1.03 71% 20% 38% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.9 .27 19% .34 79% .27
Feb
14		 Middle Tennessee B- B+ B- C+ B 40% 12% 48% B B+ D A+ B- F A+ A+ A+ D F D+ A+ C+ 34% 25% 41% C+ C+ F+ F F C+ B D+ B-
1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 +1 1.12 21% 1.5 .32 20% .56 88% .49 1.13 79% 43% 22% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.2 .44 17% .22 69% .15
Feb
18		 Delaware A- C B- C- C- 34% 24% 42% C C- C A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ F F+ F C D- 33% 24% 43% B- D D+ F F F F D+ F
1.27 59% 42% 33% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.6 .48 13% .51 81% .41 1.25 67% 55% 35% +7 -1 1.15 22% 1.7 .37 12% .55 79% .44
Feb
21		 Liberty A+ C- F A+ B- 47% 14% 39% B+ B B- A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A- F F A C- 51% 2% 47% D C- A+ C- A+ A- F A+ F
1.36 54% 14% 50% +4 +2 1.14 34% 1.9 .66 13% .38 96% .36 1.05 78% 100% 29% +8 +3 1.24 4% 1.0 .04 17% .51 59% .30
Feb
26		 New Mexico St. B- C+ A- A+ A+ 42% 15% 42% B+ A+ F F F A- A- D- B A+ C- B+ A+ A+ 27% 23% 50% C- A+ A+ B- A- B F C- F
1.18 60% 44% 44% +8 +1 1.20 11% 0.3 .03 11% .44 71% .31 0.89 60% 31% 18% -13 -1 0.73 23% 0.9 .21 16% .52 74% .38
Feb
28		 UTEP A+ B A+ A+ A+ 49% 12% 39% A A+ F A+ C- A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ C- A+ A+ 19% 23% 57% C A B F C- B F B- F
1.35 64% 67% 45% +13 +2 1.31 17% 2.0 .33 12% .44 86% .38 0.90 44% 36% 26% -10 -2 0.79 22% 1.2 .27 19% .50 66% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 4.6 4.6 2nd
3rd 15.3 47.5 27.0 89.8 3rd
4th 5.7 5.7 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 21.0 47.5 31.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 31.5% 20.0% 20.0% 12.9 1.4 3.9 1.0 25.2
12-8 47.5% 17.9% 17.9% 13.4 0.4 4.4 3.4 0.3 39.0
11-9 21.0% 13.3% 13.3% 13.7 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.3 18.2
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 13.3 82.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.3% 100.0% 12.9 22.7 62.1 15.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.8%
Lose Out 6.5%