TX A&M Corpus Christi
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #196
Expected Predictive Rating -1.8 #197
Pace 66.5 #239
Improvement +0.3 #169

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #293 D- C- C C C
Defense #105 C+ C B+ F+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #14 0.97 #352 +0.4 #159
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #107 0.71 #258 +0.7 #142
Three Pointers 29% #358 0.93 #285 -7.1 #355
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #335 -6.0 #335
Freethrows 0.34 #65 65% #355 0.22 #170
Second Chance 30.0% #201 0.96 #267 0.29 #236
Turnovers 16.9% #191
Total Offense -4.6 #293

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 1.17 #201 -1.9 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #173 0.73 #123 +0.3 #165
Three Pointers 38% #262 0.93 #69 +3.0 #65
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #131 +1.4 #131
Freethrows 0.38 #354 72% #156 0.27 #347
Second Chance 31.1% #203 1.00 #136 0.31 #168
Turnovers 20.1% #27
Total Defense +2.2 #105

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #174 0.4% #200
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.0% #347 -3.1% #116
Possession Length 18.3 #293 16.9 #127
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #159 0.18 #223
Improvement +0.4 #151 -0.1 #197

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 37.1% 45.2% 17.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 97.2% 83.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round3.0% 3.5% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 33 - 10
Quad 410 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 39 @SMU L 58 - 69 5% -2  0 - 1 +5 -8 F D B+ +14 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 226 @Tarleton St. L 77 - 85 43% -13  0 - 2 -9 +6 F+ C A- -15 F F C
 Tue, Nov 11 14 @Kansas L 46 - 77 2% -19  0 - 3 -10 -17 F+ D- D +8 D B+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 56 @Oklahoma St. L 69 - 85 9% -9  0 - 4 -3 -6 F D+ C+ +4 C+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 83 @Xavier L 67 - 88 13% -12  0 - 5 -11 -6 F D A -4 C B F
 Sat, Dec 6 197 @Lamar W 57 - 49 39% +1  1 - 5 1 - 0 +9 -5 D- C D- +15 A- A- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 69 18% -1  1 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -2 D C+ D -0 C- C+ B+
 Mon, Dec 29 249 Nicholls St. L 71 - 76 71% -3  1 - 7 1 - 2 -13 +2 B C+ D -16 F+ F B
 Wed, Dec 31 218 New Orleans W 83 - 69 65% +6  2 - 7 2 - 2 +8 +6 F A+ B- +2 B B A-
 Sat, Jan 3 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 63 - 59 35% +1  3 - 7 3 - 2 +5 -1 D- A- C- +7 A+ B+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 297 @Houston Christian W 81 - 65 60% +8  4 - 7 4 - 2 +11 +5 D+ B+ C+ +7 B+ D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 270 @Northwestern St. L 78 - 79 53% +7  4 - 8 4 - 3 -4 +5 C F+ A- -9 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 311 @East Texas A&M W 61 - 50 64% +5  5 - 8 5 - 3 +5 -9 F B- F +15 A+ C B
 Sat, Jan 17 271 SE Louisiana W 68 - 56 74% +14  6 - 8 6 - 3 +3 -6 C- C+ F +9 C B- A+
 Mon, Jan 19 85 McNeese St. L 53 - 69 28% -6  6 - 9 6 - 4 -12 -9 D F A- -6 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 248 @Incarnate Word W 79 - 71 49% +10  7 - 9 7 - 4 +6 +6 C+ B F +0 F+ B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 26 181 UT Rio Grande Valley L 55 - 64 58% -3  7 - 10 7 - 5 -14 -14 F F+ D- -1 B+ F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 297 Houston Christian W 73 - 71 79% +0  8 - 10 8 - 5 -9 +4 C+ F C- -12 F A+ C+
 Mon, Feb 2 248 Incarnate Word W 72 - 66 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 249 @Nicholls St. L 70 - 71 48%
 Mon, Feb 9 218 @New Orleans L 73 - 75 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 197 Lamar W 68 - 65 60%
 Mon, Feb 16 105 Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 69 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 85 @McNeese St. L 63 - 75 13%
 Mon, Feb 23 271 @SE Louisiana W 66 - 65 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 270 Northwestern St. W 72 - 65 73%
 Mon, Mar 2 311 East Texas A&M W 73 - 63 82%
Totals 13 - 14 13 - 9 -2 -5 D- C- C +2 C+ C B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.1 15.8 18.1 9.3 2.2 0.1 50.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 10.9 7.8 1.9 0.1 23.3 4th
5th 0.6 5.3 5.7 0.8 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 4.2 0.9 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.5 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 0.4 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.2 5.4 13.1 22.7 24.4 20.1 9.8 2.8 0.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 16.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0
15-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.3% 15.2% 15.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-6 2.8% 7.2% 7.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
15-7 9.8% 5.8% 5.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 9.3
14-8 20.1% 4.2% 4.2% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 19.3
13-9 24.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 23.6
12-10 22.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.2 0.2 22.3
11-11 13.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.0
10-12 5.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.4
9-13 1.2% 1.2
8-14 0.1% 0.1
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 14.7 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.1%