Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#101
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#75
Pace64.1#309
Improvement-0.1#184

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#110
First Shot+3.8#75
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#265
Layup/Dunks+4.7#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#117
Freethrows-1.0#246
Improvement-1.0#266

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#103
First Shot+4.1#63
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#289
Layups/Dunks-0.5#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#92
Freethrows+1.9#60
Improvement+0.9#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.6% 22.4% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 97.8% 99.3% 95.9%
.500 or above in Conference 86.4% 93.2% 78.2%
Conference Champion 25.9% 34.4% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.4% 2.3%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round19.5% 22.2% 16.1%
Second Round3.9% 5.0% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.3% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 310 - 413 - 8
Quad 48 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 145   @ Texas Arlington W 92-77 56%     1 - 0 +18.5 +23.2 -4.0
  Nov 13, 2024 191   Massachusetts W 76-66 73%     2 - 0 +8.7 +2.5 +6.1
  Nov 25, 2024 168   Southern Illinois W 85-79 OT 71%     3 - 0 +5.4 -0.9 +5.2
  Nov 26, 2024 216   Richmond W 65-62 77%     4 - 0 +0.4 -2.5 +3.2
  Nov 27, 2024 220   Eastern Kentucky W 78-69 77%     5 - 0 +6.2 +10.0 -2.8
  Nov 30, 2024 232   Southern L 70-73 86%     5 - 1 -9.7 -4.4 -5.3
  Dec 04, 2024 37   @ Memphis L 71-81 17%     5 - 2 +5.2 +5.5 -0.5
  Dec 08, 2024 291   @ Louisiana W 69-58 80%     6 - 2 +7.1 -1.2 +9.1
  Dec 13, 2024 234   Georgia Southern W 77-63 86%     7 - 2 +7.2 +7.9 +0.4
  Dec 16, 2024 102   Grand Canyon W 74-66 62%     8 - 2 +10.1 +6.0 +4.4
  Jan 02, 2025 140   @ UTEP W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 201   @ New Mexico St. W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 09, 2025 248   Florida International W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 11, 2025 81   Liberty W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 16, 2025 167   @ Jacksonville St. W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 162   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 23, 2025 105   Western Kentucky W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 131   Middle Tennessee W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 127   Sam Houston St. W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 81   @ Liberty L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 248   @ Florida International W 73-66 73%    
  Feb 13, 2025 162   Kennesaw St. W 79-71 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 167   Jacksonville St. W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 20, 2025 131   @ Middle Tennessee W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 22, 2025 105   @ Western Kentucky L 72-74 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 127   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-72 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 201   New Mexico St. W 73-63 82%    
  Mar 08, 2025 140   UTEP W 72-65 73%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.3 7.3 6.1 3.5 1.3 0.3 25.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 7.1 6.9 3.1 0.8 0.1 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.1 7.0 4.8 1.3 0.1 16.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 5.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.8 0.3 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.7 6.4 9.4 12.2 14.3 14.5 13.5 10.5 6.9 3.5 1.3 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 98.1% 3.5    3.3 0.2
15-3 88.8% 6.1    5.1 1.0 0.0
14-4 69.0% 7.3    4.7 2.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 39.0% 5.3    2.2 2.4 0.7 0.1
12-6 13.3% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.9% 25.9 17.2 6.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 71.8% 57.0% 14.8% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 34.4%
17-1 1.3% 55.2% 49.6% 5.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 11.1%
16-2 3.5% 41.6% 39.9% 1.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 2.1 2.9%
15-3 6.9% 37.2% 36.9% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 4.3 0.5%
14-4 10.5% 29.8% 29.7% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.3 7.4 0.1%
13-5 13.5% 23.1% 23.1% 12.1 0.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 10.4
12-6 14.5% 19.3% 19.3% 12.3 0.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 11.7
11-7 14.3% 16.2% 16.2% 12.4 0.0 1.4 0.9 0.1 12.0
10-8 12.2% 12.5% 12.5% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.6
9-9 9.4% 10.4% 10.4% 12.9 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.4
8-10 6.4% 7.5% 7.5% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.0
7-11 3.7% 4.3% 4.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.5
6-12 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 19.6% 19.3% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.9 11.3 4.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 80.5 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 6.8 3.7 11.1 18.5 28.4 8.6 2.5 9.9 6.2 7.4 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 32.1% 9.3 14.3 10.7 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 36.4% 10.8 4.5 9.1 13.6 9.1