Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#87
Expected Predictive Rating+15.6#18
Pace64.6#308
Improvement+0.0#176

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#81
First Shot+4.4#65
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#228
Layup/Dunks+3.7#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#82
Freethrows-2.5#303
Improvement-0.4#243

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#92
First Shot+7.2#19
After Offensive Rebounds-4.4#347
Layups/Dunks-0.7#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#31
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement+0.4#124
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 2.4% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.1% 31.8% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.6% 4.9% 1.4%
Average Seed 11.0 10.8 11.7
.500 or above 93.2% 96.4% 86.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 91.7% 83.8%
Conference Champion 34.0% 38.2% 25.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.6% 1.6%
First Four1.5% 1.9% 0.8%
First Round27.4% 30.8% 20.6%
Second Round8.6% 10.3% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.2% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Neutral) - 66.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 310 - 412 - 8
Quad 49 - 121 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 166   @ Texas Arlington W 92-77 65%     1 - 0 +17.6 +22.2 -3.9
  Nov 13, 2024 128   Massachusetts W 76-66 65%     2 - 0 +12.4 +4.4 +7.9
  Nov 25, 2024 132   Southern Illinois W 71-66 67%    
  Nov 26, 2024 201   Richmond W 71-63 78%    
  Nov 27, 2024 199   Eastern Kentucky W 77-69 78%    
  Nov 30, 2024 266   Southern W 75-60 92%    
  Dec 04, 2024 33   @ Memphis L 70-79 22%    
  Dec 07, 2024 245   @ Louisiana W 74-66 75%    
  Dec 13, 2024 220   Georgia Southern W 84-72 86%    
  Dec 16, 2024 108   Grand Canyon W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 02, 2025 174   @ UTEP W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 04, 2025 163   @ New Mexico St. W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 09, 2025 275   Florida International W 80-65 91%    
  Jan 11, 2025 80   Liberty W 66-64 58%    
  Jan 16, 2025 183   @ Jacksonville St. W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 161   @ Kennesaw St. W 81-77 62%    
  Jan 23, 2025 122   Western Kentucky W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 164   Middle Tennessee W 74-64 80%    
  Feb 01, 2025 117   Sam Houston St. W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 06, 2025 80   @ Liberty L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 275   @ Florida International W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 13, 2025 161   Kennesaw St. W 84-74 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 183   Jacksonville St. W 71-60 82%    
  Feb 20, 2025 164   @ Middle Tennessee W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 122   @ Western Kentucky W 75-74 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 117   @ Sam Houston St. L 72-73 49%    
  Mar 06, 2025 163   New Mexico St. W 73-63 79%    
  Mar 08, 2025 174   UTEP W 75-65 80%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.7 7.6 9.1 7.3 4.0 1.3 34.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.5 7.5 5.1 1.9 0.3 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.2 5.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 3.6 0.9 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.1 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.6 11.2 12.5 13.3 13.0 10.9 7.6 4.0 1.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 100.0% 4.0    3.9 0.1
16-2 96.5% 7.3    6.6 0.7
15-3 82.8% 9.1    6.9 2.1 0.1
14-4 58.1% 7.6    4.3 2.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 27.7% 3.7    1.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.6% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.0% 34.0 24.5 7.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 89.7% 64.1% 25.6% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 71.2%
17-1 4.0% 74.4% 56.0% 18.4% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.0 41.8%
16-2 7.6% 59.6% 47.9% 11.8% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.0 0.9 0.0 3.1 22.6%
15-3 10.9% 45.1% 40.5% 4.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.3 1.8 0.1 6.0 7.9%
14-4 13.0% 35.6% 34.2% 1.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.4 2.2%
13-5 13.3% 26.7% 26.4% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.8 0.4%
12-6 12.5% 20.1% 20.0% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 10.0 0.1%
11-7 11.2% 16.1% 16.1% 12.5 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.4
10-8 8.6% 12.4% 12.4% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.6
9-9 6.6% 7.8% 7.8% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.1
8-10 4.7% 5.6% 5.6% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.4
7-11 3.0% 4.1% 4.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
6-12 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 28.1% 25.4% 2.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.7 7.6 11.1 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 71.9 3.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.5 9.4 11.5 28.1 26.0 20.8 2.1 1.0 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 90.9% 5.4 4.5 4.5 13.6 31.8 9.1 18.2 9.1