Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#271
Expected Predictive Rating-9.3#309
Pace78.3#14
Improvement-2.5#297

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#173
First Shot+3.6#79
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#338
Layup/Dunks+3.2#73
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#102
Freethrows-2.2#308
Improvement-0.1#182

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#343
First Shot-6.7#351
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#154
Layups/Dunks-7.5#361
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#122
Freethrows-0.8#242
Improvement-2.4#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.4% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 9.5% 17.3% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 26.4% 42.3% 16.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 8.9% 3.6% 12.0%
First Four3.3% 3.4% 3.2%
First Round2.8% 3.7% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Away) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 7
Quad 49 - 1012 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 51   @ Penn St. L 54-103 5%     0 - 1 -35.7 -20.6 -8.6
  Nov 14, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 92-67 89%     1 - 1 +5.2 +10.9 -6.4
  Nov 16, 2024 232   St. Peter's L 61-69 52%     1 - 2 -14.7 -0.2 -15.9
  Nov 19, 2024 256   Hampton L 68-78 57%     1 - 3 -18.1 -1.4 -17.7
  Nov 23, 2024 282   Boston University L 71-75 63%     1 - 4 -13.7 -6.8 -6.8
  Nov 25, 2024 281   Howard W 95-77 63%     2 - 4 +8.3 +13.6 -5.2
  Nov 27, 2024 334   Morgan St. W 92-69 77%     3 - 4 +8.9 -0.9 +7.2
  Dec 02, 2024 72   @ Georgetown L 62-86 7%     3 - 5 -13.5 -10.7 +0.1
  Dec 07, 2024 176   @ Towson W 84-71 21%     4 - 5 +15.1 +9.7 +4.8
  Dec 18, 2024 104   @ Georgia Tech L 82-91 12%     4 - 6 -2.5 +8.0 -9.9
  Dec 21, 2024 218   @ Marist L 73-76 OT 29%     4 - 7 -3.4 +0.5 -3.7
  Dec 29, 2024 236   @ American W 96-93 2OT 32%     5 - 7 +1.5 +7.2 -6.1
  Jan 04, 2025 322   @ Binghamton L 82-87 51%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -11.6 +6.4 -18.2
  Jan 09, 2025 355   @ NJIT W 87-64 67%     6 - 8 1 - 1 +12.2 +9.1 +2.1
  Jan 16, 2025 351   New Hampshire L 76-79 81%     6 - 9 1 - 2 -18.6 -0.5 -18.2
  Jan 18, 2025 202   Maine L 62-87 44%     6 - 10 1 - 3 -29.7 -12.4 -16.5
  Jan 23, 2025 260   @ Albany L 82-85 38%    
  Jan 25, 2025 211   @ Vermont L 69-75 27%    
  Jan 30, 2025 157   Bryant L 86-90 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 188   Umass Lowell L 84-86 43%    
  Feb 06, 2025 351   @ New Hampshire W 80-76 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 202   @ Maine L 73-80 24%    
  Feb 13, 2025 322   Binghamton W 82-76 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 157   @ Bryant L 84-93 18%    
  Feb 20, 2025 188   @ Umass Lowell L 81-89 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 355   NJIT W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 260   Albany W 84-82 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 211   Vermont L 71-72 47%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.8 3.7 4.0 0.9 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.7 9.1 8.0 2.1 0.0 22.1 5th
6th 1.0 6.4 13.4 8.7 2.0 0.1 31.5 6th
7th 0.5 4.9 8.2 3.5 0.6 17.6 7th
8th 0.3 2.5 5.0 2.1 0.2 10.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 1.7 0.8 0.0 3.7 9th
Total 0.2 1.2 4.6 11.7 16.8 19.8 19.2 13.8 8.0 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 77.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 11.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.2% 27.3% 27.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2
11-5 1.0% 13.5% 13.5% 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.8
10-6 3.4% 12.0% 12.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 3.0
9-7 8.0% 10.4% 10.4% 15.8 0.1 0.7 7.2
8-8 13.8% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8 13.0
7-9 19.2% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.9 18.3
6-10 19.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.5 19.3
5-11 16.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.5 16.4
4-12 11.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.5
3-13 4.6% 4.6
2-14 1.2% 1.2
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 4.0 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%