Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.4#335
Expected Predictive Rating-17.7#358
Pace62.3#340
Improvement-2.9#324

Offense
Total Offense-7.6#354
First Shot-6.1#339
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#266
Layup/Dunks-2.5#279
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#153
Freethrows-2.2#303
Improvement-1.1#270

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#264
First Shot-1.8#230
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#269
Layups/Dunks+2.5#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#323
Freethrows-0.3#213
Improvement-1.8#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.5% 15.8% 4.8%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 50.0% 35.1% 61.2%
First Four0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 46 - 137 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 257   @ Fresno St. L 57-64 22%     0 - 1 -9.2 -12.4 +3.1
  Nov 12, 2024 91   @ UC San Diego L 54-64 5%     0 - 2 -0.9 -7.5 +5.5
  Nov 16, 2024 158   Cal St. Northridge L 69-79 24%     0 - 3 -13.1 -4.0 -9.1
  Nov 24, 2024 118   @ California L 77-83 7%     0 - 4 -0.3 +2.3 -2.4
  Nov 27, 2024 271   @ Air Force W 63-61 24%     1 - 4 -0.8 -5.3 +4.7
  Nov 30, 2024 358   Mercyhurst L 60-66 74%     1 - 5 -23.1 -12.7 -11.1
  Dec 04, 2024 318   @ Denver L 59-80 33%     1 - 6 -26.8 -11.3 -17.9
  Dec 07, 2024 298   Nebraska Omaha L 60-70 49%     1 - 7 -20.2 -14.6 -6.2
  Dec 14, 2024 185   UC Davis L 62-69 28%     1 - 8 -11.2 -6.4 -5.0
  Dec 17, 2024 65   @ Oregon St. L 45-82 3%     1 - 9 -25.3 -18.8 -8.2
  Jan 04, 2025 260   Portland St. L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 09, 2025 279   Idaho L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 254   Eastern Washington L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 16, 2025 285   @ Northern Arizona L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 197   @ Northern Colorado L 64-76 14%    
  Jan 23, 2025 251   Idaho St. L 61-63 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 208   Weber St. L 63-68 31%    
  Jan 30, 2025 141   @ Montana St. L 60-74 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 215   @ Montana L 63-74 16%    
  Feb 06, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington L 66-74 22%    
  Feb 08, 2025 279   @ Idaho L 63-70 27%    
  Feb 13, 2025 197   Northern Colorado L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 285   Northern Arizona L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 20, 2025 208   @ Weber St. L 60-71 16%    
  Feb 22, 2025 251   @ Idaho St. L 58-66 23%    
  Feb 27, 2025 215   Montana L 66-71 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 141   Montana St. L 63-71 23%    
  Mar 03, 2025 260   @ Portland St. L 65-73 24%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 3.5 1.0 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.9 2.1 0.1 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.6 6.2 3.3 0.4 14.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.1 8.2 3.9 0.6 0.0 21.4 9th
10th 1.0 4.2 8.2 10.8 9.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 37.7 10th
Total 1.0 4.2 8.6 13.0 15.8 15.8 13.5 10.9 7.6 4.5 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 91.7% 0.0    0.0
14-4 85.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 46.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 25.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 18.8% 18.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 9.5% 9.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.7% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.1 0.6
11-7 1.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 1.3
10-8 2.7% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.1 2.6
9-9 4.5% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 4.3
8-10 7.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 7.5
7-11 10.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.8
6-12 13.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.5
5-13 15.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.7
4-14 15.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.7
3-15 13.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.0
2-16 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.6
1-17 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%