Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.7#332
Expected Predictive Rating-13.1#341
Pace63.8#294
Improvement+0.1#185

Offense
Total Offense-7.1#341
First Shot-5.5#321
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#278
Layup/Dunks-1.9#254
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#132
Freethrows-2.3#313
Improvement+2.3#79

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#283
First Shot-2.3#248
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#293
Layups/Dunks+2.6#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#231
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#325
Freethrows-0.5#229
Improvement-2.2#298
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 78.4% 52.2% 83.8%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 17.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 11
Quad 45 - 135 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 254   @ Fresno St. L 57-64 22%     0 - 1 -9.7 -14.8 +5.0
  Nov 12, 2024 54   @ UC San Diego L 54-64 2%     0 - 2 +3.1 -5.8 +7.7
  Nov 16, 2024 114   Cal St. Northridge L 69-79 15%     0 - 3 -9.7 -2.8 -6.9
  Nov 24, 2024 112   @ California L 77-83 7%     0 - 4 -0.2 +3.2 -3.3
  Nov 27, 2024 294   @ Air Force W 63-61 28%     1 - 4 -2.8 -5.9 +3.3
  Nov 30, 2024 350   Mercyhurst L 60-66 68%     1 - 5 -21.4 -12.6 -9.6
  Dec 04, 2024 315   @ Denver L 59-80 34%     1 - 6 -27.6 -9.8 -20.1
  Dec 07, 2024 187   Nebraska Omaha L 60-70 26%     1 - 7 -14.1 -14.5 -0.2
  Dec 14, 2024 222   UC Davis L 62-69 32%     1 - 8 -12.8 -6.5 -6.5
  Dec 17, 2024 87   @ Oregon St. L 45-82 4%     1 - 9 -28.1 -24.3 -5.5
  Jan 04, 2025 201   Portland St. W 56-53 28%     2 - 9 1 - 0 -1.7 -8.0 +6.7
  Jan 09, 2025 253   Idaho L 67-80 39%     2 - 10 1 - 1 -20.7 -4.5 -18.0
  Jan 11, 2025 265   Eastern Washington L 54-65 40%     2 - 11 1 - 2 -19.0 -19.8 +0.0
  Jan 16, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona L 53-77 23%     2 - 12 1 - 3 -26.9 -20.7 -6.6
  Jan 18, 2025 151   @ Northern Colorado L 64-68 10%     2 - 13 1 - 4 -0.8 -1.9 +0.6
  Jan 23, 2025 229   Idaho St. W 75-71 33%     3 - 13 2 - 4 -2.2 +2.3 -4.3
  Jan 25, 2025 297   Weber St. L 81-87 48%     3 - 14 2 - 5 -16.1 +5.7 -22.2
  Jan 30, 2025 188   @ Montana St. L 58-70 14%     3 - 15 2 - 6 -11.0 -10.6 -1.0
  Feb 01, 2025 182   @ Montana L 59-87 13%     3 - 16 2 - 7 -26.6 -8.1 -22.1
  Feb 06, 2025 265   @ Eastern Washington L 80-83 23%     3 - 17 2 - 8 -5.9 +8.3 -14.4
  Feb 08, 2025 253   @ Idaho L 76-78 22%     3 - 18 2 - 9 -4.7 -4.6 +0.0
  Feb 13, 2025 151   Northern Colorado L 61-77 20%     3 - 19 2 - 10 -17.9 -14.5 -3.5
  Feb 15, 2025 264   Northern Arizona L 61-65 40%     3 - 20 2 - 11 -12.0 -12.7 +0.4
  Feb 20, 2025 297   @ Weber St. W 80-77 29%     4 - 20 3 - 11 -2.1 +12.3 -14.0
  Feb 22, 2025 229   @ Idaho St. L 62-72 17%    
  Feb 27, 2025 182   Montana L 67-74 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 188   Montana St. L 63-70 29%    
  Mar 03, 2025 201   @ Portland St. L 62-73 13%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.7 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 8.6 23.4 15.2 2.7 0.0 49.9 9th
10th 30.3 17.0 2.0 0.0 49.3 10th
Total 38.8 40.4 17.2 3.4 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 3.4% 3.4
5-13 17.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 17.1
4-14 40.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 40.2
3-15 38.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 38.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 24.7%