Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
15 Purdue 82.4%   4   3 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +14.5      +9.6 9 +4.9 52 67.3 246 +11.1 38 0.0 1
17 Ohio St. 82.1%   4   2 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 8 +14.0      +7.4 21 +6.5 20 65.6 294 +22.3 5 0.0 1
20 Illinois 72.3%   5   3 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +13.2      +7.8 17 +5.4 39 72.8 90 +5.3 95 0.0 1
24 Indiana 67.5%   6   2 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 9 +12.8      +6.4 32 +6.4 22 70.5 142 +1.7 159 0.0 1
25 Michigan 66.1%   5   1 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 9 +12.8      +7.3 22 +5.5 36 68.4 207 +1.3 166 0.0 1
27 Michigan St. 67.6%   7   2 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 9 +12.7      +4.3 66 +8.4 9 72.4 100 +6.1 85 0.0 1
30 UCLA 61.4%   8   2 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 9 +12.4      +3.8 78 +8.6 7 62.7 343 +2.6 142 0.0 1
31 Maryland 61.1%   9   3 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 9 +12.2      +3.7 81 +8.5 8 67.7 231 +1.8 157 0.0 1
36 Penn St. 50.8%   10   3 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 10 +11.3      +5.5 45 +5.8 33 78.1 25 +1.0 176 0.0 1
37 Rutgers 55.3%   8   2 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +11.2      +3.5 86 +7.6 14 69.1 187 +6.9 74 0.0 1
38 Wisconsin 55.4%   9   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +11.1      +6.4 33 +4.7 56 64.2 323 +7.4 70 0.0 1
39 Oregon 55.5%   9   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +10.8      +5.4 46 +5.4 40 67.5 239 +7.9 60 0.0 1
45 Iowa 45.2%   10   2 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 11 +10.1      +8.9 14 +1.1 132 77.7 26 +5.0 100 0.0 1
50 Northwestern 40.5%   2 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 11 +9.7      +4.6 61 +5.1 44 63.1 336 +5.6 93 0.0 1
65 USC 33.2%   3 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 12 +8.5      +5.9 36 +2.5 98 70.3 149 +8.9 50 0.0 1
67 Nebraska 28.0%   3 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 12 +8.1      +2.4 108 +5.8 34 71.1 126 +2.7 140 0.0 1
79 Washington 22.5%   1 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 12 +7.3      +2.1 117 +5.2 42 76.1 37 +4.8 104 0.0 1
88 Minnesota 13.1%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 7 - 13 +6.1      +2.3 109 +3.8 76 66.3 271 +0.9 178 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Purdue 5.8 17.1 12.5 10.1 8.7 7.5 6.5 6.2 5.4 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.6
Ohio St. 6.1 15.7 11.6 10.1 8.4 7.4 6.7 6.1 5.6 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.1 1.7 1.3 0.8
Illinois 6.9 12.2 10.3 8.8 8.0 7.3 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.5 4.9 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.1
Indiana 7.4 10.7 8.9 7.9 7.5 7.0 6.8 5.9 6.2 5.6 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.0 3.7 2.8 2.6 1.7
Michigan 7.4 10.6 8.9 7.9 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.5 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.2 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.4 1.8
Michigan St. 7.2 10.3 9.4 8.4 8.0 7.4 6.9 6.7 6.4 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.0 1.2
UCLA 7.3 9.7 8.8 8.3 7.8 7.2 7.1 6.8 6.4 5.8 5.5 4.7 4.8 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.6 2.2 1.3
Maryland 7.7 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.6 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.3 3.8 3.1 2.4 1.5
Penn St. 8.5 6.1 6.6 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.3 5.0 4.7 3.9 3.5 2.3
Rutgers 9.1 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.2 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.1 5.2 4.4 3.5
Wisconsin 8.7 5.8 6.3 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.3 4.9 4.8 4.5 3.7 2.5
Oregon 8.9 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.1 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.6 3.8 2.8
Iowa 9.6 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.0 6.4 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.0
Northwestern 10.3 3.1 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.6 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.1
USC 11.2 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.4 7.6 8.4 7.8 7.4
Nebraska 11.8 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.9 5.0 5.7 6.0 6.8 7.3 7.8 8.5 9.1 9.6 9.0
Washington 12.3 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.5 4.5 5.1 5.6 6.2 7.1 7.8 8.2 9.5 10.9 12.4
Minnesota 13.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.2 5.1 5.8 6.8 7.9 9.5 11.0 13.6 18.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.1 7.3 9.0 10.2 11.6 11.6 11.0 9.6 7.4 4.9 2.8 1.1 0.3
Ohio St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.7 7.5 9.3 10.5 11.4 11.8 10.5 8.8 6.7 4.6 2.6 1.1 0.2
Illinois 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.6 4.9 6.7 8.9 10.3 10.9 11.1 10.8 9.4 7.8 5.2 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.2
Indiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.1 7.8 8.9 10.4 10.7 10.9 10.2 8.5 6.8 4.7 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1
Michigan 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.2 6.0 7.7 9.2 10.4 11.0 10.9 9.8 8.6 6.6 5.0 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1
Michigan St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.2 3.7 5.6 7.5 9.1 10.6 11.4 11.4 10.7 9.0 7.2 4.5 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2
UCLA 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.1 5.7 7.5 9.5 10.9 11.8 11.2 10.1 8.9 6.7 4.4 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1
Maryland 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.7 6.4 8.3 10.1 11.2 11.2 11.1 10.1 8.0 6.0 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
Penn St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.9 5.6 7.8 9.5 10.6 11.6 11.1 10.0 8.9 6.9 4.7 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Rutgers 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.5 9.8 11.0 11.0 10.2 9.6 7.7 5.8 4.2 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
Wisconsin 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.1 6.0 7.8 9.4 11.3 11.5 10.8 10.0 8.5 6.3 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Oregon 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 4.2 6.4 8.1 9.8 10.8 10.9 11.2 10.1 8.0 6.3 4.3 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Iowa 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.5 5.4 7.5 9.3 10.3 11.6 11.2 10.1 8.6 7.2 5.1 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.4 6.0 8.4 10.2 11.4 11.3 11.0 9.5 7.9 6.0 4.4 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
USC 8 - 12 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.7 5.8 8.1 10.1 11.2 11.5 11.1 10.1 8.4 6.5 4.4 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.6 7.0 9.4 10.6 12.0 11.7 10.5 9.4 7.2 5.4 3.9 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington 8 - 12 0.4 1.5 3.7 5.7 8.3 9.7 11.0 11.6 11.1 9.5 8.4 6.6 4.8 3.5 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 7 - 13 0.7 2.7 5.3 8.2 10.3 11.7 12.4 11.9 10.5 8.4 6.7 4.6 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 17.1% 10.9 4.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 15.7% 9.8 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Illinois 12.2% 7.3 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana 10.7% 6.5 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan 10.6% 6.4 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 10.3% 6.2 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UCLA 9.7% 5.5 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Maryland 8.2% 4.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 6.1% 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 5.6% 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 5.8% 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon 5.5% 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iowa 4.1% 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 3.1% 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
USC 2.0% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 1.3% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 82.4% 12.5% 69.9% 4   8.2 11.5 12.3 10.9 9.9 8.3 6.0 4.2 3.4 3.1 3.5 1.1 0.0 17.6 79.9%
Ohio St. 82.1% 10.8% 71.3% 4   7.0 10.1 11.5 10.7 9.9 9.0 6.7 5.1 4.0 3.5 3.8 0.9 0.0 17.9 80.0%
Illinois 72.3% 8.7% 63.5% 5   3.7 5.9 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.1 7.2 5.5 4.5 3.9 0.7 0.0 27.7 69.6%
Indiana 67.5% 8.2% 59.3% 6   3.4 4.9 6.4 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.3 6.0 4.8 3.9 0.7 0.0 32.5 64.6%
Michigan 66.1% 8.1% 58.0% 5   3.5 5.2 7.0 7.4 7.7 7.6 7.2 6.2 5.1 4.1 4.2 0.9 0.0 33.9 63.1%
Michigan St. 67.6% 7.9% 59.6% 7   2.8 4.3 6.1 7.2 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.0 6.2 5.0 4.8 0.8 0.0 32.4 64.8%
UCLA 61.4% 7.0% 54.4% 8   1.9 3.1 4.7 5.7 6.7 7.1 8.0 7.7 6.2 4.9 4.5 0.8 0.0 38.6 58.4%
Maryland 61.1% 6.6% 54.5% 9   1.6 2.7 4.4 5.1 6.1 6.9 8.2 8.7 7.0 5.8 4.1 0.5 38.9 58.4%
Penn St. 50.8% 5.0% 45.8% 10   1.0 1.7 2.8 3.9 4.5 5.3 6.4 7.4 6.6 6.2 4.6 0.6 0.0 49.2 48.2%
Rutgers 55.3% 4.7% 50.6% 8   1.6 2.8 4.3 5.2 6.1 6.6 6.8 6.4 5.4 4.6 4.6 1.0 0.0 44.7 53.1%
Wisconsin 55.4% 4.5% 50.9% 9   1.2 2.5 3.8 4.8 5.6 6.5 6.9 7.3 6.2 5.0 4.7 0.9 0.0 44.6 53.3%
Oregon 55.5% 4.2% 51.3% 9   1.1 2.3 3.9 4.7 6.0 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.2 5.4 5.0 0.9 0.0 44.5 53.5%
Iowa 45.2% 3.6% 41.6% 10   0.8 1.3 2.4 3.0 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.3 6.1 5.6 4.5 0.7 54.8 43.1%
Northwestern 40.5% 2.9% 37.7% 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.0 4.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 59.5 38.8%
USC 33.2% 1.8% 31.4% 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.4 5.1 4.7 4.7 0.7 0.0 66.8 31.9%
Nebraska 28.0% 1.5% 26.5% 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.6 3.4 4.2 4.2 3.8 4.2 0.7 0.0 72.0 26.9%
Washington 22.5% 1.3% 21.1% 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.5 0.7 0.0 77.5 21.4%
Minnesota 13.1% 0.6% 12.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 86.9 12.6%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 82.4% 4.0% 80.5% 62.1% 34.8% 16.8% 8.0% 3.6% 1.6%
Ohio St. 82.1% 4.0% 80.1% 59.8% 32.2% 15.3% 6.9% 3.2% 1.4%
Illinois 72.3% 3.9% 70.5% 49.4% 24.5% 11.3% 5.1% 2.1% 0.9%
Indiana 67.5% 3.6% 65.6% 45.2% 22.5% 10.2% 4.5% 2.0% 0.8%
Michigan 66.1% 4.3% 64.0% 44.8% 22.4% 10.3% 4.6% 2.0% 0.8%
Michigan St. 67.6% 4.8% 65.2% 44.0% 20.9% 9.2% 4.0% 1.7% 0.7%
UCLA 61.4% 4.3% 59.2% 39.1% 18.0% 8.0% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5%
Maryland 61.1% 3.4% 59.4% 38.2% 16.8% 7.5% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Penn St. 50.8% 4.1% 48.8% 30.0% 12.5% 5.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
Rutgers 55.3% 4.6% 53.0% 33.9% 15.2% 6.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Wisconsin 55.4% 4.7% 53.0% 32.9% 14.1% 5.7% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4%
Oregon 55.5% 5.0% 52.8% 32.4% 13.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3%
Iowa 45.2% 4.0% 43.1% 25.4% 9.8% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Northwestern 40.5% 4.8% 38.0% 22.1% 8.5% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
USC 33.2% 4.4% 30.8% 16.5% 5.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Nebraska 28.0% 4.1% 25.8% 13.4% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Washington 22.5% 3.5% 20.8% 10.9% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Minnesota 13.1% 2.3% 11.8% 5.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.6 15.0 26.5 27.8 17.7 6.1 1.2 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 9.2 0.0 0.2 1.7 7.4 20.2 28.7 24.9 12.8 3.5 0.5 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 6.1 0.0 0.5 3.2 10.4 21.2 26.6 21.9 11.5 3.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.0% 2.8 2.0 11.9 27.7 30.5 19.2 6.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 77.8% 1.2 22.2 41.9 26.4 8.1 1.3 0.1
Final Four 45.4% 0.5 54.6 37.5 7.2 0.6 0.0
Final Game 21.6% 0.2 78.4 20.6 1.0
Champion 9.2% 0.1 90.8 9.2