Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
7 Wisconsin 100.0%   2   21 - 5 11 - 4 25 - 6 15 - 5 +18.7      +12.5 6 +6.3 39 67.9 192 +19.3 7 +18.9 3
12 Michigan St. 100.0%   3   22 - 5 13 - 3 24 - 7 15 - 5 +18.2      +8.5 23 +9.8 9 68.5 173 +18.4 10 +20.5 2
13 Maryland 100.0%   3   21 - 6 11 - 5 24 - 7 14 - 6 +18.0      +9.3 17 +8.7 15 73.4 56 +16.2 21 +16.7 4
16 Purdue 100.0%   4   19 - 8 11 - 5 22 - 9 14 - 6 +17.5      +11.7 9 +5.8 44 64.8 270 +16.6 18 +16.6 5
18 Illinois 99.2%   5   17 - 10 9 - 8 19 - 12 11 - 9 +16.2      +9.6 15 +6.6 35 77.6 14 +14.2 34 +13.4 7
22 Michigan 100.0%   4   20 - 6 12 - 3 23 - 8 15 - 5 +15.6      +8.2 25 +7.5 26 72.7 65 +17.3 13 +21.1 1
27 UCLA 99.4%   6   19 - 8 10 - 6 21 - 10 12 - 8 +14.7      +6.4 40 +8.3 18 63.2 310 +15.1 27 +15.0 6
33 Ohio St. 67.2%   10   15 - 12 7 - 9 17 - 14 9 - 11 +13.7      +7.1 35 +6.6 34 67.9 191 +11.6 50 +10.7 12
39 Oregon 97.7%   8   19 - 8 8 - 8 21 - 10 10 - 10 +12.2      +7.0 37 +5.1 55 69.0 157 +15.6 25 +12.5 8
48 Nebraska 74.2%   10   17 - 10 7 - 9 19 - 12 9 - 11 +11.0      +5.5 55 +5.5 48 68.9 160 +13.0 40 +11.8 9
57 Indiana 23.9%   15 - 11 6 - 9 17 - 14 8 - 12 +10.6      +5.2 63 +5.4 50 70.5 119 +11.4 51 +10.8 11
58 Northwestern 6.9%   14 - 13 5 - 11 16 - 15 7 - 13 +10.3      +5.1 64 +5.2 53 62.9 319 +8.6 69 +8.4 15
59 USC 13.2%   14 - 12 6 - 9 16 - 15 8 - 12 +10.1      +6.2 44 +3.9 72 69.7 132 +8.8 68 +10.2 13
61 Iowa 3.0%   13 - 12 5 - 10 16 - 15 7 - 13 +9.2      +8.6 21 +0.6 158 75.6 27 +8.8 66 +8.3 16
62 Penn St. 0.2%   14 - 13 4 - 12 15 - 16 5 - 15 +8.6      +5.3 58 +3.3 85 73.5 52 +6.2 84 +4.4 18
63 Rutgers 1.2%   13 - 14 6 - 10 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8.4      +5.1 65 +3.3 84 70.1 128 +8.3 73 +10.2 14
76 Minnesota 6.9%   14 - 12 6 - 9 16 - 15 8 - 12 +7.4      +3.7 83 +3.7 75 59.2 358 +9.2 62 +11.6 10
90 Washington 0.1%   12 - 13 4 - 11 13 - 17 5 - 15 +5.7      +2.6 101 +3.2 88 70.5 116 +7.4 78 +6.8 17





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Wisconsin 2.0 36.9 34.4 19.1 6.9 2.5 0.3 0.0
Michigan St. 1.6 62.5 20.4 10.9 4.5 1.7 0.0
Maryland 3.6 7.6 17.0 20.5 25.4 24.6 4.8 0.2
Purdue 3.7 3.8 16.6 24.0 28.9 18.6 7.8 0.3 0.0
Illinois 7.0 0.3 3.1 21.0 53.6 16.8 4.0 1.0 0.1
Michigan 2.2 36.3 30.2 16.4 10.3 6.4 0.5
UCLA 5.4 0.0 1.1 5.2 11.9 22.8 51.8 5.6 1.5 0.2
Ohio St. 9.5 0.0 3.0 9.8 18.2 23.8 17.4 12.3 8.7 4.3 2.1 0.4 0.0
Oregon 7.9 0.1 0.8 9.8 33.7 30.7 14.0 6.8 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.0
Nebraska 9.5 1.5 10.4 18.9 25.3 20.1 11.1 7.2 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.0
Indiana 10.7 0.5 6.0 10.4 14.9 16.7 16.3 13.9 10.4 6.3 2.8 1.5 0.2 0.1
Northwestern 14.1 0.2 0.9 3.1 7.2 10.5 14.1 17.6 17.8 20.8 6.5 1.3
USC 11.0 0.0 0.9 3.7 8.2 13.6 15.9 17.4 14.2 11.0 8.5 4.1 2.0 0.3 0.0
Iowa 13.9 0.3 0.9 2.5 4.2 7.6 9.8 13.4 17.2 16.9 17.2 8.1 2.0
Penn St. 16.8 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.7 6.9 15.2 36.7 35.1
Rutgers 12.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 8.8 16.7 16.8 16.4 18.5 12.0 4.8 0.7 0.0
Minnesota 11.9 0.1 1.6 5.0 10.0 13.2 15.3 15.5 12.9 11.9 8.5 5.1 0.8 0.1
Washington 16.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.9 4.3 5.1 9.3 18.0 34.8 24.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Wisconsin 15 - 5 0.0 0.7 5.9 24.6 44.8 24.0
Michigan St. 15 - 5 2.6 15.6 34.8 34.0 13.1
Maryland 14 - 6 1.2 9.8 30.3 39.7 19.0
Purdue 14 - 6 0.8 9.4 30.6 40.4 18.9
Illinois 11 - 9 5.2 30.2 45.3 19.2
Michigan 15 - 5 1.4 10.2 27.1 34.4 21.4 5.5
UCLA 12 - 8 3.3 18.7 36.7 32.4 9.0
Ohio St. 9 - 11 4.8 23.3 37.7 26.7 7.5
Oregon 10 - 10 3.7 20.3 39.0 31.1 5.9
Nebraska 9 - 11 4.0 21.4 38.7 28.4 7.5
Indiana 8 - 12 3.7 17.8 31.5 29.6 14.3 3.1
Northwestern 7 - 13 9.0 30.6 38.6 19.1 2.7
USC 8 - 12 4.5 20.5 34.3 28.2 11.0 1.5
Iowa 7 - 13 8.3 30.0 35.6 20.0 5.5 0.6
Penn St. 5 - 15 26.5 41.9 24.6 6.5 0.5
Rutgers 7 - 13 12.2 38.9 37.8 10.0 1.1
Minnesota 8 - 12 9.6 28.8 32.7 21.3 6.8 0.7
Washington 5 - 15 20.0 36.7 29.1 11.6 2.5 0.2




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wisconsin 36.9% 14.5 12.6 7.1 2.4 0.3
Michigan St. 62.5% 37.7 14.7 7.4 2.4 0.3
Maryland 7.6% 0.3 2.0 3.3 1.8 0.3
Purdue 3.8% 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.4 0.3
Illinois
Michigan 36.3% 14.6 13.3 6.0 2.2 0.3
UCLA 0.0% 0.0
Ohio St.
Oregon
Nebraska
Indiana
Northwestern
USC
Iowa
Penn St.
Rutgers
Minnesota
Washington


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wisconsin 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 2   10.9 28.7 30.2 19.0 8.2 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 3   6.9 22.4 30.0 21.9 11.9 4.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Maryland 100.0% 15.1% 84.8% 3   4.2 15.4 27.6 26.4 16.4 7.6 1.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Purdue 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 4   1.9 9.2 22.0 25.7 21.3 13.0 5.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 99.2% 6.5% 92.7% 5   0.1 1.3 5.7 11.8 20.8 25.0 16.4 9.4 5.2 2.6 0.9 0.0 0.9 99.1%
Michigan 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 4   1.8 9.4 23.5 25.7 21.1 12.4 4.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
UCLA 99.4% 5.2% 94.3% 6   0.0 0.4 2.9 7.6 17.7 26.1 24.7 14.3 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.6 99.4%
Ohio St. 67.2% 1.9% 65.3% 10   0.1 0.2 0.3 1.3 4.3 6.2 9.0 11.8 15.6 16.9 1.6 32.8 66.6%
Oregon 97.7% 1.6% 96.2% 8   0.0 0.1 0.5 3.8 10.5 23.9 30.7 20.1 7.0 1.1 2.3 97.7%
Nebraska 74.2% 0.7% 73.5% 10   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 5.2 14.0 20.2 20.2 12.0 0.5 25.8 74.0%
Indiana 23.9% 0.5% 23.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.7 3.8 6.5 9.9 1.2 76.2 23.5%
Northwestern 6.9% 0.1% 6.8% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 4.3 0.7 93.1 6.8%
USC 13.2% 0.4% 12.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.1 7.0 0.8 0.0 86.8 12.8%
Iowa 3.0% 0.1% 2.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.7 0.4 97.0 2.9%
Penn St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.2%
Rutgers 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.1 98.8 1.1%
Minnesota 6.9% 0.1% 6.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 4.2 0.5 0.0 93.2 6.8%
Washington 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.6% 62.9% 32.9% 15.2% 6.7% 3.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 93.0% 58.5% 28.7% 13.3% 5.9% 2.6%
Maryland 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.0% 56.0% 26.6% 12.2% 5.5% 2.1%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 87.3% 50.4% 22.4% 9.8% 4.2% 1.6%
Illinois 99.2% 0.8% 98.9% 73.7% 33.9% 13.5% 5.1% 1.6% 0.6%
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 84.1% 42.4% 15.9% 5.9% 2.2% 0.7%
UCLA 99.4% 0.0% 99.4% 66.6% 25.8% 9.5% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3%
Ohio St. 67.2% 17.0% 60.1% 30.3% 8.8% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Oregon 97.7% 0.8% 97.3% 45.6% 9.8% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Nebraska 74.2% 11.0% 68.2% 25.8% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Indiana 23.9% 10.2% 18.9% 6.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 6.9% 4.8% 4.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 13.2% 7.1% 9.6% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iowa 3.0% 2.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 6.9% 4.3% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.9 0.1 3.1 26.0 48.2 20.2 2.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.6 0.1 6.3 36.5 44.8 11.5 0.7
2nd Round 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.2 1.5 7.2 21.2 34.1 26.2 8.6 1.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 99.8% 3.6 0.2 3.2 14.9 29.9 30.9 15.7 4.5 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 87.8% 1.6 12.2 37.5 33.3 14.0 2.8 0.2 0.0
Final Four 54.2% 0.7 45.8 42.2 11.0 0.9 0.0
Final Game 26.2% 0.3 73.8 24.6 1.6
Champion 10.9% 0.1 89.1 10.9