Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
100 College of Charleston 29.5%   13   2 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 8 14 - 4 +5.0      +3.5 85 +1.5 122 84.6 5 +13.4 26 0.0 1
131 Hofstra 14.4%   2 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +1.8      0.0 168 +1.8 115 65.0 309 +15.1 18 0.0 1
134 Towson 13.5%   0 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 6 +1.6      0.0 170 +1.7 119 63.4 330 -0.6 211 0.0 1
137 Drexel 13.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 +1.3      -0.5 182 +1.8 113 62.5 347 +1.6 160 0.0 1
156 UNC Wilmington 11.4%   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +0.6      +1.7 131 -1.1 205 67.1 252 +7.9 62 0.0 1
170 Northeastern 7.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 14 10 - 8 -0.5      +0.3 165 -0.8 199 65.7 291 +0.7 182 0.0 1
204 Delaware 4.2%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -2.4      -2.9 268 +0.4 154 75.5 45 -1.6 223 0.0 1
244 William & Mary 2.3%   1 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -4.1      -0.6 186 -3.5 284 68.4 208 -3.9 254 0.0 1
272 Elon 1.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -5.9      -2.3 244 -3.6 292 68.5 203 +6.5 80 0.0 1
285 Monmouth 1.1%   0 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 22 7 - 11 -6.4      -2.5 250 -3.9 303 70.2 157 -12.4 327 0.0 1
287 Stony Brook 1.1%   1 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 11 -6.6      -2.5 247 -4.1 318 67.9 222 +3.5 125 0.0 1
300 N.C. A&T 0.9%   0 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 11 -7.0      -3.6 283 -3.5 287 76.1 38 -6.7 286 0.0 1
304 Campbell 0.7%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -7.3      -4.2 298 -3.1 267 66.3 273 -24.9 362 0.0 1
323 Hampton 0.4%   0 - 2 0 - 0 7 - 17 5 - 13 -9.1      -5.8 333 -3.4 282 72.7 92 -7.0 291 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
College of Charleston 2.7 40.1 20.9 13.2 8.7 6.1 4.1 2.5 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 4.1 19.2 17.3 15.1 12.1 9.7 7.3 5.8 4.4 3.3 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3
Towson 4.4 16.4 16.1 14.0 12.7 10.6 8.2 6.4 5.0 3.8 2.7 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.3
Drexel 4.3 18.4 16.3 14.2 12.0 10.0 7.7 6.2 4.6 3.6 2.7 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.4
UNC Wilmington 4.8 14.4 13.6 12.9 12.3 10.8 9.0 7.2 5.8 4.5 3.4 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.6
Northeastern 5.8 7.8 9.2 10.3 11.3 11.5 11.1 9.6 8.1 6.8 5.1 3.8 2.7 1.7 0.9
Delaware 7.1 3.4 5.8 7.0 8.5 9.3 10.0 10.4 9.8 9.3 8.4 6.8 5.4 3.8 2.2
William & Mary 7.9 2.4 4.1 5.1 6.6 8.1 9.0 9.5 10.1 9.8 9.3 8.3 7.6 6.0 4.1
Elon 8.7 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.1 6.8 7.5 8.6 9.4 9.6 10.1 9.5 9.4 8.6 7.5
Monmouth 9.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.7 5.0 6.6 7.4 8.9 10.1 11.0 11.3 11.2 11.1 8.7
Stony Brook 9.4 0.7 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.9 6.3 7.9 8.7 10.2 11.2 11.3 12.1 10.5 8.7
N.C. A&T 9.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.2 6.5 7.9 9.1 10.0 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.4 9.3
Campbell 10.1 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.8 5.1 6.4 7.7 9.0 10.2 11.4 12.9 14.0 13.4
Hampton 10.9 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.6 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.5 11.6 13.9 17.3 20.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
College of Charleston 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.3 5.4 8.2 10.9 13.6 15.8 15.3 12.6 8.0 3.0
Hofstra 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.5 5.5 7.4 10.0 11.7 13.5 13.3 11.9 9.3 6.0 3.2 0.7
Towson 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.5 4.1 5.9 8.6 10.8 12.6 13.5 12.6 11.3 8.1 4.9 2.2 0.5
Drexel 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.0 6.1 7.7 10.2 11.9 13.0 12.9 11.2 8.7 5.6 2.9 0.8
UNC Wilmington 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.1 7.3 9.3 11.4 12.5 12.4 11.5 9.8 7.0 4.2 1.8 0.5
Northeastern 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.4 5.3 7.7 10.1 12.1 13.4 12.6 11.4 8.7 6.4 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.1
Delaware 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.0 6.4 9.1 10.9 12.7 12.6 11.9 10.2 7.8 5.5 3.2 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
William & Mary 8 - 10 0.2 0.5 1.7 3.4 6.0 8.6 10.5 12.0 12.7 11.6 10.5 8.4 5.9 4.0 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Elon 7 - 11 0.3 1.3 3.0 5.4 8.2 10.1 11.7 12.7 11.7 10.3 8.5 6.8 4.5 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 7 - 11 0.5 1.7 4.0 6.8 9.9 12.1 13.1 13.2 11.7 9.3 7.0 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 7 - 11 0.4 1.6 3.9 7.0 9.8 12.5 13.6 13.3 11.7 9.3 7.0 4.7 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 7 - 11 0.4 1.7 3.6 6.7 9.5 12.0 13.4 12.8 11.5 9.6 7.2 5.1 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Campbell 6 - 12 0.9 3.0 5.9 9.7 11.7 13.3 13.0 11.9 10.0 7.6 5.6 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Hampton 5 - 13 1.7 4.8 9.2 12.5 14.1 13.9 12.9 10.4 7.8 5.3 3.7 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
College of Charleston 40.1% 27.9 9.5 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 19.2% 11.7 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Towson 16.4% 9.7 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Drexel 18.4% 11.0 5.4 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 14.4% 8.5 4.2 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northeastern 7.8% 4.3 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Delaware 3.4% 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 2.4% 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Elon 1.7% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.8% 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Campbell 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
College of Charleston 29.5% 28.5% 1.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 4.0 11.2 7.7 3.1 0.7 0.1 70.5 1.4%
Hofstra 14.4% 14.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 4.9 4.5 2.5 0.8 0.2 85.7 0.3%
Towson 13.5% 13.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 3.0 4.3 3.3 1.6 0.5 86.5 0.1%
Drexel 13.2% 13.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.0 4.2 3.2 1.6 0.3 86.9 0.1%
UNC Wilmington 11.4% 11.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.8 3.6 2.7 1.2 0.3 88.6 0.1%
Northeastern 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.3 1.4 0.4 92.6 0.0%
Delaware 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.4 95.8 0.0%
William & Mary 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 97.7 0.0%
Elon 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 98.5 0.0%
Monmouth 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 98.9 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 98.9 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 99.1 0.0%
Campbell 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 99.3 0.0%
Hampton 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
College of Charleston 29.5% 0.6% 29.2% 7.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 14.4% 0.2% 14.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 13.5% 0.3% 13.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 13.2% 0.2% 13.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 11.4% 0.2% 11.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 7.4% 0.2% 7.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 4.2% 0.2% 4.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 2.3% 0.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 1.5% 0.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 97.9 1.0
2nd Round 16.1% 0.2 83.9 16.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0