Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
126 College of Charleston 23.0%   14   14 - 4 5 - 1 22 - 8 13 - 5 +2.3      +0.9 152 +1.5 130 78.1 15 +6.8 81 +5.7 3
135 UNC Wilmington 17.7%   12 - 5 4 - 2 20 - 9 12 - 6 +1.8      +2.3 116 -0.5 188 65.0 268 +2.3 127 +0.2 5
158 Elon 12.5%   11 - 6 4 - 2 18 - 11 11 - 7 +0.4      +0.9 149 -0.5 187 63.5 312 +2.6 125 +1.3 4
174 Towson 10.6%   9 - 9 5 - 1 16 - 14 12 - 6 -0.6      -1.6 222 +1.0 138 58.7 358 +0.2 167 +9.0 1
175 Hofstra 7.7%   8 - 9 2 - 4 16 - 13 10 - 8 -0.7      -5.6 320 +4.9 53 62.8 323 +0.5 165 -3.9 9
186 Drexel 6.5%   10 - 8 3 - 3 16 - 14 9 - 9 -1.1      -2.3 231 +1.2 135 61.7 345 -1.8 205 -4.1 10
194 William & Mary 7.7%   9 - 8 5 - 1 15 - 14 11 - 7 -1.6      +2.6 107 -4.1 296 75.3 33 -0.9 188 +7.3 2
195 Delaware 6.4%   9 - 8 4 - 2 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1.6      +2.3 114 -3.9 288 74.6 45 -2.2 212 -1.0 6
202 Northeastern 4.4%   10 - 9 2 - 4 17 - 14 9 - 9 -1.9      -1.5 219 -0.4 184 69.4 161 -0.8 184 -4.6 11
250 Campbell 1.4%   6 - 11 3 - 3 11 - 18 8 - 10 -5.1      -4.5 294 -0.5 190 66.3 236 -7.2 281 -1.3 7
254 Hampton 1.1%   7 - 9 3 - 4 12 - 16 7 - 11 -5.4      -3.5 265 -1.9 238 63.8 306 -3.0 221 -6.0 12
268 Monmouth 0.8%   5 - 14 3 - 3 9 - 22 7 - 11 -6.0      -3.6 269 -2.5 251 67.7 210 -7.7 294 -3.3 8
320 Stony Brook 0.1%   3 - 15 0 - 6 7 - 23 4 - 14 -9.2      -3.9 278 -5.3 331 64.7 281 -10.5 322 -18.0 13
322 N.C. A&T 0.1%   3 - 16 0 - 7 6 - 24 3 - 15 -9.3      -4.2 289 -5.1 322 77.0 21 -13.9 342 -20.4 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
College of Charleston 2.4 44.7 21.3 13.2 8.4 5.4 3.4 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
UNC Wilmington 3.7 19.6 18.1 16.5 13.6 10.7 7.7 6.0 3.4 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Elon 3.9 17.4 17.0 16.0 14.8 11.1 8.9 5.9 3.9 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
Towson 3.0 30.4 23.2 15.4 10.5 7.3 5.1 3.6 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
Hofstra 6.5 1.7 4.6 8.2 10.9 12.6 13.6 12.6 11.2 9.5 7.2 4.7 2.8 0.5 0.1
Drexel 6.6 3.1 5.2 7.3 9.4 11.3 12.1 11.8 11.6 10.9 7.7 5.4 3.9 0.3 0.0
William & Mary 4.3 14.5 15.2 14.5 14.0 11.5 9.8 7.6 5.5 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.4
Delaware 6.2 4.7 7.1 8.4 10.8 11.1 11.6 11.8 11.1 10.0 6.9 4.2 2.1 0.2
Northeastern 7.5 1.0 2.6 4.3 6.8 8.7 10.6 13.4 13.9 13.5 10.5 8.1 5.5 1.1 0.1
Campbell 8.6 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.0 7.4 9.7 12.6 14.9 15.9 14.7 9.4 2.2 0.4
Hampton 9.8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.0 6.2 9.0 12.0 16.9 19.6 21.9 4.6 0.3
Monmouth 9.5 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.6 5.1 7.3 9.7 12.5 16.1 18.1 18.5 4.2 0.3
Stony Brook 12.9 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.7 5.9 14.2 46.6 28.9
N.C. A&T 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 2.1 6.8 36.4 53.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
College of Charleston 13 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 5.5 11.2 18.5 21.8 20.0 13.4 5.6 1.2
UNC Wilmington 12 - 6 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.4 7.7 13.5 18.8 21.1 17.5 11.0 4.5 0.9
Elon 11 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.8 8.5 14.5 19.8 21.1 17.1 9.1 3.5 0.6
Towson 12 - 6 0.1 0.5 1.7 5.0 9.2 15.0 19.8 20.2 15.1 9.3 3.5 0.7
Hofstra 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.7 8.5 14.3 18.9 21.2 17.2 10.4 3.7 0.7
Drexel 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.7 4.6 9.5 15.7 18.5 19.3 15.3 9.2 4.5 1.2 0.2
William & Mary 11 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.5 11.2 16.4 19.3 19.1 14.2 8.0 3.0 0.8 0.1
Delaware 10 - 8 0.1 0.9 3.6 8.0 14.1 18.0 19.3 16.8 10.7 5.9 2.0 0.6 0.1
Northeastern 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.8 7.1 13.2 19.4 20.8 17.3 11.3 5.4 1.5 0.3
Campbell 8 - 10 0.5 2.5 6.4 12.9 18.8 21.0 17.5 11.2 6.0 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Hampton 7 - 11 0.9 5.0 13.3 19.8 22.2 18.8 11.1 5.8 2.4 0.6 0.1
Monmouth 7 - 11 1.1 4.8 11.4 18.2 20.2 18.6 13.2 7.4 3.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
Stony Brook 4 - 14 1.9 8.5 16.9 22.4 21.2 15.8 8.6 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.1
N.C. A&T 3 - 15 5.3 16.0 24.6 24.3 17.2 8.4 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
College of Charleston 44.7% 28.2 11.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 19.6% 9.2 6.6 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Elon 17.4% 8.0 5.7 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Towson 30.4% 16.3 9.3 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
Hofstra 1.7% 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Drexel 3.1% 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 14.5% 6.3 5.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Delaware 4.7% 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
Northeastern 1.0% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Campbell 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Hampton 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook
N.C. A&T


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
College of Charleston 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% 14   0.2 2.8 8.4 9.4 2.2 0.1 77.0 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 5.2 8.0 3.0 0.1 82.3 0.0%
Elon 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 4.2 5.6 1.5 0.0 87.5 0.0%
Towson 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.2 1.3 3.7 4.5 1.0 89.4 0.0%
Hofstra 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.2 1.1 3.3 2.7 0.4 92.3 0.0%
Drexel 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.9 0.7 93.5 0.0%
William & Mary 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.5 2.8 3.7 0.8 92.3 0.0%
Delaware 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.1 0.7 93.6 0.0%
Northeastern 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 0.6 95.7 0.0%
Campbell 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 98.6 0.0%
Hampton 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 98.9 0.0%
Monmouth 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
College of Charleston 23.0% 0.0% 23.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 17.7% 0.0% 17.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 12.5% 0.0% 12.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 10.6% 0.2% 10.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 7.7% 0.1% 7.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 6.5% 0.1% 6.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 7.7% 0.2% 7.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 6.4% 0.1% 6.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 4.4% 0.1% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 1.4% 0.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.9
2nd Round 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0