Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
122 College of Charleston 21.3%   13   7 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +2.5      +1.5 132 +1.1 133 74.4 59 +8.4 72 0.0 2
142 UNC Wilmington 14.0%   6 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 7 +1.0      +1.4 135 -0.4 184 67.5 221 +2.4 132 0.0 2
149 Elon 12.5%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +0.5      +0.4 159 +0.1 168 66.1 260 +2.8 125 0.0 2
153 Drexel 11.8%   6 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +0.3      -0.2 178 +0.6 150 62.0 342 -0.5 176 0.0 2
156 Hofstra 11.3%   6 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +0.1      -2.8 246 +2.9 97 63.8 314 +4.6 103 0.0 2
158 Northeastern 10.5%   8 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 7 0.0      -1.4 208 +1.4 128 69.2 169 +2.4 131 0.0 2
207 Delaware 5.2%   5 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -2.4      +0.5 151 -2.9 264 74.8 47 -2.6 209 0.0 2
209 Towson 5.1%   3 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -2.4      -3.4 269 +1.0 140 59.0 359 -4.5 242 0.0 2
225 William & Mary 3.6%   2 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -3.3      +1.0 140 -4.4 306 77.3 23 -7.4 295 0.0 2
269 Campbell 1.3%   3 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -5.8      -4.3 295 -1.5 213 66.3 258 -9.6 317 0.0 2
270 Hampton 1.4%   3 - 5 1 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -5.8      -3.3 266 -2.5 252 63.7 315 -3.0 217 +3.6 1
273 Monmouth 1.2%   1 - 10 0 - 0 9 - 22 7 - 11 -5.9      -3.1 257 -2.8 263 68.8 187 -12.1 334 0.0 2
309 Stony Brook 0.5%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 12 -8.1      -4.5 301 -3.6 290 67.9 210 -6.5 275 0.0 2
313 N.C. A&T 0.3%   2 - 8 0 - 1 8 - 22 5 - 13 -8.6      -3.7 280 -4.9 325 80.3 7 -10.6 325 -18.0 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
College of Charleston 3.5 29.6 18.0 13.6 10.2 8.3 6.4 4.8 3.4 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1
UNC Wilmington 4.3 19.7 15.9 13.6 11.4 9.7 8.0 6.4 4.8 3.7 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.3
Elon 4.4 18.6 14.9 13.0 11.7 9.7 8.2 6.9 5.2 4.0 2.9 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.4
Drexel 4.5 17.5 15.3 13.4 11.4 9.7 8.1 6.7 5.2 4.3 3.2 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.4
Hofstra 4.8 15.0 14.0 13.1 11.5 10.3 8.8 7.5 6.1 4.8 3.5 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.4
Northeastern 5.0 13.1 12.7 12.4 12.0 10.5 9.5 8.3 6.7 5.2 4.0 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.4
Delaware 7.0 5.1 6.5 7.5 8.3 9.1 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.1 7.9 6.7 5.4 3.8 2.1
Towson 6.7 5.3 7.0 8.2 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.1 9.4 8.8 7.2 5.9 4.4 3.1 1.5
William & Mary 7.8 3.5 4.6 5.5 6.6 7.7 8.1 9.0 9.6 9.9 9.2 8.6 7.6 6.3 3.8
Campbell 9.6 0.9 1.7 2.4 3.4 4.3 5.5 6.8 8.3 10.0 10.9 12.2 12.2 11.6 9.9
Hampton 9.1 1.2 2.0 2.9 4.1 5.3 6.4 8.1 9.5 10.9 11.4 11.5 11.4 9.4 5.9
Monmouth 9.5 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.8 7.2 8.4 10.0 11.2 12.0 12.1 11.4 8.9
Stony Brook 10.7 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.8 6.4 8.0 9.9 12.4 14.1 16.1 18.3
N.C. A&T 11.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.4 4.9 6.9 9.4 12.0 14.7 19.2 24.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
College of Charleston 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.2 6.8 10.1 13.0 15.0 15.2 13.3 9.7 5.8 2.4 0.5
UNC Wilmington 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.9 6.5 9.3 12.5 14.2 15.1 13.1 10.1 6.6 3.5 1.2 0.2
Elon 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.3 7.1 9.7 12.6 14.2 14.2 12.5 9.8 6.4 3.2 1.2 0.2
Drexel 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.6 7.1 9.9 12.7 14.1 14.3 12.3 9.5 6.2 3.1 1.1 0.2
Hofstra 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.3 7.9 11.1 13.5 14.6 14.0 11.8 8.4 5.2 2.4 0.7 0.1
Northeastern 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.3 5.7 8.8 12.0 14.0 14.8 13.7 11.0 7.4 4.3 1.8 0.5 0.1
Delaware 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.5 8.5 11.1 12.9 14.0 13.2 11.2 8.5 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Towson 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.5 7.5 10.5 12.6 14.5 14.1 12.3 9.1 5.9 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.0 7.9 10.5 12.5 13.6 13.1 11.5 8.7 6.0 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Campbell 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 3.2 6.2 9.6 12.8 14.6 14.2 12.5 10.1 6.9 4.5 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hampton 7 - 11 0.3 1.5 4.1 7.9 11.9 14.1 15.1 14.1 11.6 8.4 5.4 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 7 - 11 0.1 1.0 2.7 5.7 9.2 12.6 14.7 14.5 13.0 10.2 7.1 4.6 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 6 - 12 0.6 2.5 5.8 9.9 13.6 15.2 15.1 12.8 9.8 6.5 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 5 - 13 0.8 3.3 7.6 12.8 15.9 16.7 14.9 11.4 7.9 4.7 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
College of Charleston 29.6% 19.1 7.6 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
UNC Wilmington 19.7% 11.6 5.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Elon 18.6% 11.1 5.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Drexel 17.5% 10.1 5.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 15.0% 8.4 4.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northeastern 13.1% 7.2 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Delaware 5.1% 2.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Towson 5.3% 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 3.5% 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Campbell 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Hampton 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
College of Charleston 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 7.1 8.6 4.1 0.6 0.0 78.7 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.9 5.0 1.8 0.2 86.0 0.0%
Elon 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.5 4.0 1.5 0.2 87.5 0.0%
Drexel 11.8% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 4.5 2.6 0.4 88.3 0.0%
Hofstra 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.1 4.0 1.6 0.1 88.7 0.0%
Northeastern 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.3 4.2 1.9 0.2 89.5 0.0%
Delaware 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.8 0.6 94.8 0.0%
Towson 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 1.2 94.9 0.0%
William & Mary 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.1 96.4 0.0%
Campbell 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 98.7 0.0%
Hampton 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 98.6 0.0%
Monmouth 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 98.8 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
College of Charleston 21.3% 0.0% 21.3% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 14.0% 0.0% 14.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 12.5% 0.1% 12.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 11.8% 0.1% 11.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 11.3% 0.0% 11.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 10.5% 0.0% 10.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 5.2% 0.3% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 5.1% 0.6% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 3.6% 0.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 1.3% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 1.4% 0.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.3% 1.0 1.7 98.3 0.0
2nd Round 8.4% 0.1 91.6 8.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0