Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
97 Arkansas St. 32.6%   13   18 - 9 10 - 5 21 - 9 13 - 5 +5.0      +1.4 128 +3.6 76 72.2 73 +3.3 118 +1.9 3
118 Troy 16.5%   15 - 10 10 - 5 17 - 11 12 - 6 +2.7      -0.3 179 +3.0 93 65.6 253 +0.9 152 +1.8 4
133 South Alabama 15.8%   17 - 9 11 - 4 19 - 10 13 - 5 +1.6      -1.4 214 +3.0 91 60.8 348 +1.3 147 +3.0 2
138 James Madison 14.4%   16 - 10 11 - 4 18 - 11 13 - 5 +1.2      +2.1 111 -0.9 197 63.6 300 +2.2 131 +3.1 1
141 Appalachian St. 11.9%   15 - 10 10 - 5 17 - 11 12 - 6 +1.1      -3.0 256 +4.1 69 61.2 346 +0.5 159 -0.3 5
190 Marshall 3.9%   14 - 12 9 - 6 16 - 13 11 - 7 -1.7      -0.9 199 -0.8 193 71.3 94 -2.0 197 -0.6 6
202 Texas St. 2.8%   12 - 14 7 - 8 13 - 16 8 - 10 -2.2      +0.9 150 -3.1 261 65.6 251 -2.8 211 -4.0 9
248 Georgia Southern 0.6%   13 - 14 6 - 9 14 - 16 7 - 11 -4.8      -2.3 237 -2.5 244 73.4 55 -3.9 229 -6.4 11
252 Georgia St. 0.7%   11 - 16 7 - 8 12 - 18 8 - 10 -5.1      -0.4 184 -4.7 316 72.5 67 -5.2 256 -3.5 7
280 Southern Miss 0.3%   8 - 18 5 - 10 9 - 20 6 - 12 -6.6      -5.8 320 -0.8 196 75.3 31 -7.0 284 -6.9 12
286 Old Dominion 0.2%   9 - 17 7 - 8 10 - 19 8 - 10 -6.9      -3.0 258 -3.9 291 66.3 230 -7.0 285 -3.8 8
289 Louisiana 0.3%   9 - 18 7 - 8 10 - 20 8 - 10 -7.0      -4.8 307 -2.2 234 67.4 200 -6.5 280 -4.3 10
312 Coastal Carolina 0.0%   7 - 19 2 - 13 8 - 21 3 - 15 -9.0      -3.8 275 -5.2 323 61.0 347 -9.8 320 -14.0 14
336 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   5 - 21 3 - 12 5 - 24 3 - 15 -11.5      -7.5 344 -3.9 294 68.8 162 -12.3 335 -11.3 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 2.2 30.8 36.2 19.4 10.1 3.4 0.0
Troy 3.0 17.4 23.3 19.7 23.0 16.0 0.6
South Alabama 1.7 61.8 21.1 8.7 6.1 2.2
James Madison 1.6 66.9 19.0 7.1 5.2 2.0
Appalachian St. 3.8 10.7 13.8 15.0 22.4 25.5 12.5
Marshall 5.5 0.1 1.1 4.2 9.7 21.5 59.6 3.3 0.5
Texas St. 7.8 0.2 7.1 41.4 27.6 13.4 8.0 2.2 0.1
Georgia Southern 9.6 0.2 9.5 16.0 18.3 22.2 26.7 7.2
Georgia St. 7.9 0.1 7.2 42.1 23.4 13.8 9.1 4.3 0.1
Southern Miss 11.2 0.8 3.4 7.6 12.8 17.5 58.0 0.0
Old Dominion 8.0 0.0 8.9 34.0 24.8 17.9 10.7 3.6 0.1
Louisiana 8.8 0.0 1.3 16.4 23.4 24.7 24.7 8.8 0.7
Coastal Carolina 13.4 0.4 61.8 37.8
Louisiana Monroe 13.2 0.0 0.5 77.2 22.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 13 - 5 0.1 3.0 27.9 69.0
Troy 12 - 6 1.2 14.9 44.6 39.4
South Alabama 13 - 5 2.4 19.6 46.7 31.3
James Madison 13 - 5 2.1 16.6 46.1 35.2
Appalachian St. 12 - 6 6.7 28.9 41.5 23.0
Marshall 11 - 7 8.4 38.3 40.3 13.0
Texas St. 8 - 10 16.9 39.3 32.9 11.0
Georgia Southern 7 - 11 19.6 45.1 30.3 5.0
Georgia St. 8 - 10 16.3 40.1 33.5 10.1
Southern Miss 6 - 12 19.2 45.5 29.4 5.9
Old Dominion 8 - 10 20.5 43.1 30.4 6.0
Louisiana 8 - 10 43.9 42.1 12.6 1.4
Coastal Carolina 3 - 15 23.4 47.0 27.3 2.3
Louisiana Monroe 3 - 15 71.4 25.6 2.9 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 30.8% 1.5 7.5 12.6 7.7 1.6
Troy 17.4% 0.4 2.8 6.5 6.1 1.6
South Alabama 61.8% 21.8 17.9 12.9 7.7 1.6
James Madison 66.9% 26.0 18.4 13.3 7.6 1.6
Appalachian St. 10.7% 0.2 1.4 3.8 3.9 1.5
Marshall 0.1% 0.0 0.1
Texas St.
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
Southern Miss
Old Dominion
Louisiana
Coastal Carolina
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 32.6% 32.6% 0.0% 13   0.1 15.2 14.7 2.5 0.1 67.4 0.0%
Troy 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 1.8 7.2 6.4 1.1 83.5 0.0%
South Alabama 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 6.5 6.7 1.1 0.0 84.3 0.0%
James Madison 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 1.0 5.2 6.4 1.7 0.1 85.6 0.0%
Appalachian St. 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.3 3.4 5.9 2.3 0.1 88.1 0.0%
Marshall 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.8 96.1 0.0%
Texas St. 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.0 97.2 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.8 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Louisiana 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 32.6% 0.0% 32.6% 4.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 16.5% 0.0% 16.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 15.8% 0.0% 15.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 14.4% 0.0% 14.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 11.9% 0.0% 11.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 3.9% 0.1% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 2.8% 0.4% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 99.0
2nd Round 7.9% 0.1 92.2 7.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.9 1.2
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0