Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
115 Arkansas St. 20.6%   13   2 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +3.5      +2.3 111 +1.2 131 71.6 111 +10.3 42 0.0 1
121 Troy 18.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +3.0      -0.8 191 +3.8 75 72.7 93 +8.0 59 0.0 1
126 James Madison 17.1%   1 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 10 12 - 6 +2.5      +2.0 121 +0.5 150 72.7 91 -1.4 220 0.0 1
146 Texas St. 11.5%   1 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 11 11 - 7 +1.0      -1.7 223 +2.7 94 66.3 272 +1.2 169 0.0 1
188 Louisiana 6.0%   0 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 -1.4      -1.7 225 +0.4 157 70.4 147 -9.2 311 0.0 1
197 Georgia Southern 4.9%   1 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -2.1      -0.1 172 -1.9 236 75.3 48 -3.2 244 0.0 1
198 South Alabama 4.3%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2.3      -1.8 227 -0.4 182 69.7 171 -3.2 243 0.0 1
200 Marshall 4.5%   1 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -2.3      -1.1 199 -1.1 208 74.6 59 -6.8 287 0.0 1
203 Appalachian St. 4.5%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 9 -2.4      -2.9 266 +0.5 151 67.5 240 -15.2 345 0.0 1
223 Georgia St. 3.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3.2      -1.5 211 -1.6 224 70.6 138 -3.2 247 0.0 1
231 Southern Miss 3.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -3.3      -2.4 245 -1.0 201 75.3 47 -0.4 203 0.0 1
268 Coastal Carolina 1.3%   1 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -5.6      -3.4 280 -2.2 242 66.0 281 -4.3 263 0.0 1
289 Old Dominion 0.8%   0 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 17 6 - 12 -6.7      -2.5 249 -4.2 320 73.5 75 -19.4 357 0.0 1
319 Louisiana Monroe 0.3%   0 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -8.8      -5.9 334 -2.9 259 67.6 237 -9.0 308 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 3.6 28.0 18.2 13.7 10.5 7.9 6.2 4.8 3.5 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2
Troy 4.2 21.5 16.1 13.4 10.8 9.0 7.4 6.0 4.8 3.7 2.9 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3
James Madison 3.8 26.6 18.1 12.7 10.3 7.8 6.3 4.8 3.9 3.1 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4
Texas St. 5.3 14.2 12.4 11.4 10.7 9.4 8.6 7.4 6.5 5.6 4.5 3.7 2.8 1.9 1.1
Louisiana 6.6 6.8 8.0 8.7 9.0 8.9 9.2 8.7 8.6 7.7 7.1 6.2 4.9 3.8 2.4
Georgia Southern 6.7 6.1 7.9 9.1 9.2 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.1 7.8 7.0 6.2 5.2 4.1 2.5
South Alabama 7.4 4.3 5.7 6.8 7.7 8.1 8.5 9.0 9.1 9.1 8.4 7.8 6.9 5.2 3.4
Marshall 7.3 5.2 6.6 7.5 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.3 8.5 8.3 8.0 7.7 6.8 5.3 3.3
Appalachian St. 7.1 5.6 6.8 7.6 8.0 8.6 8.7 9.0 8.4 8.1 7.6 6.8 6.3 5.1 3.3
Georgia St. 7.5 4.1 5.5 6.9 7.9 8.4 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.4 7.6 7.0 5.5 3.5
Southern Miss 8.2 3.1 4.2 5.4 6.1 6.9 7.7 8.2 8.9 9.0 9.4 9.4 8.8 7.3 5.6
Coastal Carolina 9.2 1.2 2.3 3.4 4.4 5.4 6.2 7.4 8.4 9.4 10.2 11.0 11.2 11.3 8.5
Old Dominion 10.0 0.9 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.0 4.8 6.1 6.8 8.2 9.5 10.9 13.2 14.4 14.0
Louisiana Monroe 11.6 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.9 5.5 7.5 10.1 13.8 20.3 30.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.3 6.7 9.3 11.9 13.1 14.0 13.0 10.6 6.9 3.6 1.0
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.4 8.5 10.7 12.4 13.4 12.6 11.0 8.4 5.1 2.3 0.6
James Madison 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.5 4.8 7.1 9.5 11.2 13.1 12.9 12.3 9.9 7.1 3.5 1.2
Texas St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.5 8.4 10.5 12.0 12.1 11.9 10.5 7.7 5.6 3.0 1.3 0.3
Louisiana 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.0 7.5 10.0 11.2 12.4 12.3 10.8 8.9 6.9 4.6 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1
Georgia Southern 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.2 7.4 9.5 11.6 12.2 11.9 10.9 9.1 7.0 4.4 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
South Alabama 9 - 9 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.7 7.0 9.5 11.1 12.7 12.5 11.3 9.5 7.2 5.1 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Marshall 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.5 6.7 8.8 10.8 12.1 11.7 11.0 9.9 7.5 5.7 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0
Appalachian St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.4 6.4 8.2 10.2 11.8 12.1 11.6 10.1 7.8 5.9 3.8 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1
Georgia St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.7 6.9 9.5 11.2 12.1 12.4 11.5 9.6 7.6 4.9 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Southern Miss 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.3 9.1 10.9 12.2 12.5 11.4 9.9 7.8 5.7 3.5 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 7 - 11 0.3 1.3 3.3 6.1 9.1 11.2 12.9 13.3 11.9 10.2 7.8 5.5 3.5 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 6 - 12 0.7 2.8 5.7 8.7 11.2 12.7 12.9 12.1 10.3 8.0 5.9 4.0 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 5 - 13 2.5 7.2 11.8 14.6 15.2 13.9 11.6 8.8 6.1 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 28.0% 18.4 7.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
Troy 21.5% 13.7 5.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
James Madison 26.6% 17.4 6.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 14.2% 8.5 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 6.8% 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 6.1% 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
South Alabama 4.3% 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marshall 5.2% 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 5.6% 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 4.1% 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 3.1% 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 1.2% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 20.6% 20.2% 0.4% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 7.2 6.6 3.2 0.9 0.1 79.4 0.4%
Troy 18.4% 18.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 5.8 6.7 3.1 1.0 0.1 81.6 0.2%
James Madison 17.1% 17.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 4.8 5.6 3.5 1.3 0.3 82.9 0.1%
Texas St. 11.5% 11.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.8 2.8 1.4 0.3 88.5 0.1%
Louisiana 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.7 94.0 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.5 95.1 0.0%
South Alabama 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.5 95.7 0.0%
Marshall 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.6 95.5 0.0%
Appalachian St. 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.9 95.5 0.0%
Georgia St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.4 96.7 0.0%
Southern Miss 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 96.8 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 98.7 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.2 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 20.6% 0.3% 20.4% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 18.4% 0.2% 18.3% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 17.1% 0.2% 17.0% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 11.5% 0.2% 11.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 6.0% 0.3% 5.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.9% 0.2% 4.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 4.3% 0.2% 4.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 4.5% 0.2% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 4.5% 0.4% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 3.4% 0.2% 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 3.2% 0.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.5 0.5
2nd Round 14.0% 0.1 86.0 14.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0