Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
111 Arkansas St. 23.8%   12   8 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 5 +3.7      +0.4 160 +3.3 86 73.4 71 +7.5 86 0.0 1
112 James Madison 23.3%   5 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 5 +3.6      +2.8 102 +0.8 144 69.0 176 +1.1 151 0.0 1
127 Troy 16.0%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +2.2      +0.2 166 +1.9 114 69.4 167 +0.8 157 0.0 1
138 Texas St. 12.7%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 +1.2      +1.1 138 +0.1 170 65.2 278 +2.9 123 0.0 1
171 Appalachian St. 7.6%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 -0.7      -3.4 271 +2.7 105 64.6 292 -0.7 179 0.0 1
186 Marshall 5.9%   5 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1.3      -1.3 206 0.0 171 74.6 52 -2.4 206 0.0 1
201 South Alabama 4.7%   6 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 -1.8      -1.3 205 -0.6 191 63.0 322 -2.3 205 0.0 1
235 Georgia Southern 2.4%   5 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -3.9      -3.0 254 -0.8 194 77.6 19 -0.1 170 0.0 1
253 Georgia St. 1.3%   3 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -5.2      -3.0 250 -2.2 245 72.0 96 -6.4 274 0.0 1
274 Coastal Carolina 0.9%   4 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -6.0      -3.4 270 -2.6 257 62.0 344 -6.5 276 0.0 1
282 Southern Miss 0.8%   3 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -6.4      -4.8 314 -1.6 219 72.6 79 -4.0 234 0.0 1
304 Louisiana 0.4%   1 - 9 0 - 0 7 - 22 6 - 12 -7.8      -3.0 253 -4.7 318 70.0 152 -13.4 344 0.0 1
318 Old Dominion 0.2%   2 - 8 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -8.8      -4.3 296 -4.5 311 72.0 94 -12.5 338 0.0 1
326 Louisiana Monroe 0.2%   2 - 8 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -9.2      -6.3 336 -3.0 268 67.7 216 -11.9 332 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 2.9 33.6 22.0 15.3 10.6 7.0 4.6 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
James Madison 2.9 35.2 21.3 14.2 9.9 6.7 4.7 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Troy 4.0 18.5 17.1 15.3 13.1 10.6 8.0 6.1 4.5 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1
Texas St. 4.3 15.4 15.3 15.0 12.9 11.3 9.1 7.0 5.3 3.5 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1
Appalachian St. 5.3 9.8 11.2 12.4 12.6 11.5 10.5 8.8 7.0 5.6 4.2 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.5
Marshall 5.9 6.7 8.7 10.1 11.3 11.7 11.0 10.3 8.6 7.0 5.4 4.1 2.7 1.7 0.7
South Alabama 6.2 5.3 7.1 9.3 10.6 11.7 11.5 10.9 9.5 7.8 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.9 0.8
Georgia Southern 7.4 2.1 4.0 6.0 8.0 9.6 10.5 11.5 11.1 10.1 8.8 7.4 5.3 3.7 1.9
Georgia St. 8.5 1.2 2.3 3.6 4.9 6.9 8.3 9.7 11.0 11.8 11.1 10.1 8.7 6.5 3.9
Coastal Carolina 9.0 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.2 5.9 7.3 9.1 10.3 11.5 11.7 11.4 10.1 8.0 5.7
Southern Miss 9.7 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.9 4.1 5.6 7.4 9.1 11.0 12.5 12.9 12.0 10.6 8.6
Louisiana 10.4 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.9 4.0 5.8 7.5 9.7 11.7 13.4 14.3 14.4 12.4
Old Dominion 11.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.0 4.4 6.0 8.2 10.2 12.4 14.9 18.2 18.3
Louisiana Monroe 11.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.4 5.0 6.9 9.3 12.2 15.9 19.1 23.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.9 10.7 14.5 16.9 16.8 13.7 8.8 3.7 0.8
James Madison 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.2 7.0 10.3 13.5 15.9 16.2 13.7 9.4 4.6 1.2
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.2 8.3 11.3 14.4 15.4 14.5 11.9 7.9 4.0 1.5 0.3
Texas St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.3 9.5 12.6 14.5 15.1 13.8 10.2 6.5 3.1 1.2 0.2
Appalachian St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.2 9.1 11.9 13.5 14.5 12.9 10.5 7.4 4.2 1.8 0.6 0.1
Marshall 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.2 8.1 11.2 13.3 14.4 13.7 11.3 8.2 5.2 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1
South Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.3 6.1 9.2 12.2 14.0 14.6 13.4 10.5 7.2 4.1 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Georgia Southern 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 6.1 9.4 12.4 14.4 14.8 13.0 10.4 7.0 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgia St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.2 6.3 9.7 12.6 14.7 14.6 12.9 9.9 6.9 4.1 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 2.0 4.2 7.6 11.0 14.0 15.2 13.9 11.9 8.4 5.6 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 7 - 11 0.2 1.1 3.0 6.2 10.0 13.3 15.4 14.7 12.9 9.6 6.6 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 6 - 12 0.3 1.8 4.7 8.8 12.7 15.4 15.7 13.7 10.8 7.2 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 5 - 13 0.8 3.2 7.3 11.7 15.2 15.9 14.3 11.9 8.5 5.2 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 5 - 13 1.0 4.1 9.1 13.6 16.4 16.4 14.2 10.5 6.8 4.1 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 33.6% 21.5 9.0 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
James Madison 35.2% 23.1 9.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Troy 18.5% 10.6 5.5 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 15.4% 8.5 4.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 9.8% 5.0 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Marshall 6.7% 3.3 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 5.3% 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 2.1% 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 23.8% 23.7% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3 11.3 8.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 76.2 0.0%
James Madison 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 7.2 9.3 4.6 1.1 0.1 76.7 0.0%
Troy 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.2 4.7 1.5 0.1 84.0 0.0%
Texas St. 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.8 3.9 1.4 0.1 87.3 0.0%
Appalachian St. 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.7 1.8 0.4 92.4 0.0%
Marshall 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 1.8 0.5 94.1 0.0%
South Alabama 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.4 95.3 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.3 97.6 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 98.7 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 99.1 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 99.2 0.0%
Louisiana 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 23.8% 0.0% 23.7% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 23.3% 0.0% 23.3% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 16.0% 0.0% 16.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 12.7% 0.0% 12.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 7.6% 0.1% 7.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 5.9% 0.2% 5.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 4.7% 0.1% 4.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.4% 0.1% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.3% 0.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.1 0.0
2nd Round 11.6% 0.1 88.4 11.6
Sweet Sixteen 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0