Wagner
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#280
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#175
Pace57.0#363
Improvement+0.6#122

Offense
Total Offense-7.6#351
First Shot-6.4#332
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#245
Layup/Dunks-3.4#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#312
Freethrows-2.3#296
Improvement+1.1#53

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#127
First Shot-1.5#232
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#26
Layups/Dunks+1.1#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#244
Freethrows-0.6#215
Improvement-0.5#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.3% 35.5% 26.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 81.1% 94.3% 79.4%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 94.2% 87.8%
Conference Champion 39.5% 50.4% 38.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.8% 1.9%
First Four16.6% 13.6% 17.0%
First Round17.8% 27.3% 16.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 11.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 4
Quad 416 - 716 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 43   @ Rutgers L 52-75 4%     0 - 1 -9.4 -12.2 +2.3
  Nov 13, 2024 15   @ St. John's L 45-66 2%     0 - 2 -3.3 -16.2 +11.0
  Nov 16, 2024 86   @ Seton Hall L 28-54 8%     0 - 3 -16.4 -25.7 +1.2
  Nov 19, 2024 288   @ Boston University W 60-58 39%     1 - 3 -1.3 -4.0 +3.0
  Nov 26, 2024 116   @ Georgetown L 55-68 12%    
  Dec 04, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 65-49 94%    
  Dec 08, 2024 354   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 62-57 67%    
  Dec 14, 2024 361   @ NJIT W 61-55 69%    
  Dec 18, 2024 329   Manhattan W 64-58 73%    
  Jan 03, 2025 350   Chicago St. W 67-57 81%    
  Jan 05, 2025 348   Fairleigh Dickinson W 72-62 81%    
  Jan 10, 2025 286   @ Central Connecticut St. L 56-59 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 62-51 84%    
  Jan 20, 2025 343   St. Francis (PA) W 65-56 79%    
  Jan 24, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst W 59-54 68%    
  Jan 26, 2025 343   @ St. Francis (PA) W 62-59 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 339   @ Stonehill W 60-58 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 337   Le Moyne W 65-57 75%    
  Feb 06, 2025 338   LIU Brooklyn W 67-59 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 348   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 13, 2025 337   @ Le Moyne W 62-60 56%    
  Feb 20, 2025 339   Stonehill W 63-55 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 350   @ Chicago St. W 64-60 64%    
  Feb 27, 2025 338   @ LIU Brooklyn W 64-62 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 286   Central Connecticut St. W 59-56 62%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.9 4.0 8.6 10.4 9.0 4.8 1.7 39.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.4 8.1 5.4 1.9 0.3 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 4.6 5.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.4 4.1 1.2 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.0 0.9 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 0.6 2.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.8 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 3.4 5.2 7.8 10.7 13.2 14.4 14.2 12.4 9.3 4.8 1.7 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
15-1 100.0% 4.8    4.8 0.0
14-2 96.8% 9.0    8.2 0.9
13-3 84.4% 10.4    8.0 2.4 0.0
12-4 60.5% 8.6    4.8 3.4 0.5 0.0
11-5 27.5% 4.0    1.2 1.8 0.8 0.2
10-6 6.6% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 39.5% 39.5 28.7 8.7 1.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.7% 61.4% 61.4% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7
15-1 4.8% 58.5% 58.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.5 2.0
14-2 9.3% 49.1% 49.1% 15.5 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.5 4.8
13-3 12.4% 36.6% 36.6% 15.8 0.1 0.6 3.9 7.8
12-4 14.2% 32.5% 32.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.4 9.6
11-5 14.4% 27.2% 27.2% 16.0 0.1 3.9 10.5
10-6 13.2% 19.7% 19.7% 16.0 0.0 2.6 10.6
9-7 10.7% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 1.5 9.2
8-8 7.8% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.8 7.0
7-9 5.2% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.6 4.6
6-10 3.4% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.2 3.2
5-11 1.6% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 1.6
4-12 0.7% 0.7
3-13 0.4% 0.4
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 27.3% 27.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.2 20.9 72.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.5 4.7 51.2 38.4 5.8