Wagner
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#307
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#225
Pace57.0#363
Improvement-0.5#214

Offense
Total Offense-8.9#359
First Shot-8.9#359
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#191
Layup/Dunks-8.1#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#222
Freethrows-1.8#284
Improvement+0.5#136

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#139
First Shot-1.7#234
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#23
Layups/Dunks+0.7#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#84
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#275
Freethrows-1.5#286
Improvement-1.0#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 15.5% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 66.1% 70.7% 45.5%
.500 or above in Conference 75.9% 80.3% 56.7%
Conference Champion 17.2% 19.4% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 2.7% 11.6%
First Four10.8% 11.1% 9.3%
First Round8.5% 9.2% 5.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 414 - 814 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 63   @ Rutgers L 52-75 5%     0 - 1 -11.6 -14.3 +2.3
  Nov 13, 2024 15   @ St. John's L 45-66 2%     0 - 2 -2.4 -14.5 +10.3
  Nov 16, 2024 115   @ Seton Hall L 28-54 10%     0 - 3 -20.1 -28.2 -0.1
  Nov 19, 2024 257   @ Boston University W 60-58 29%     1 - 3 -0.2 -4.0 +4.1
  Nov 26, 2024 67   @ Georgetown L 41-66 5%     1 - 4 -14.0 -19.0 +1.0
  Dec 04, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 65-52 87%     2 - 4 -7.1 +1.4 -5.5
  Dec 08, 2024 359   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 63-61 62%     3 - 4 -9.1 -5.5 -3.3
  Dec 14, 2024 352   @ NJIT W 50-43 56%     4 - 4 -2.6 -19.5 +17.6
  Dec 18, 2024 279   Manhattan L 66-80 55%     4 - 5 -23.4 -7.2 -17.7
  Jan 03, 2025 361   Chicago St. W 65-55 82%    
  Jan 05, 2025 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 10, 2025 219   @ Central Connecticut St. L 53-61 23%    
  Jan 18, 2025 358   Mercyhurst W 62-53 80%    
  Jan 20, 2025 339   St. Francis (PA) W 66-60 71%    
  Jan 24, 2025 358   @ Mercyhurst W 59-56 61%    
  Jan 26, 2025 339   @ St. Francis (PA) W 63-62 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 323   @ Stonehill L 59-61 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 332   Le Moyne W 64-59 68%    
  Feb 06, 2025 336   LIU Brooklyn W 62-56 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 333   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 13, 2025 332   @ Le Moyne L 61-62 46%    
  Feb 20, 2025 323   Stonehill W 62-58 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 361   @ Chicago St. W 62-58 62%    
  Feb 27, 2025 336   @ LIU Brooklyn L 59-60 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 219   Central Connecticut St. L 56-58 43%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.0 5.1 4.6 2.8 1.0 0.1 17.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.5 8.0 4.4 1.3 0.1 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 6.8 6.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.7 5.5 1.2 0.1 13.3 4th
5th 0.5 4.2 4.9 0.9 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.0 1.0 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 0.9 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.0 6.8 10.2 13.2 15.1 14.9 13.1 9.7 5.9 2.9 1.0 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
14-2 95.3% 2.8    2.4 0.4
13-3 78.2% 4.6    3.4 1.2 0.0
12-4 52.1% 5.1    2.6 2.2 0.3 0.0
11-5 22.6% 3.0    0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.5% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 10.4 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 56.2% 56.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.0% 39.8% 39.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.6
14-2 2.9% 33.6% 33.6% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.9
13-3 5.9% 29.2% 29.2% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.3 4.2
12-4 9.7% 24.5% 24.5% 15.9 0.2 2.2 7.3
11-5 13.1% 20.2% 20.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6 10.5
10-6 14.9% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2 12.7
9-7 15.1% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.0 1.8 13.3
8-8 13.2% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 1.2 12.0
7-9 10.2% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.7 9.5
6-10 6.8% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.3 6.4
5-11 4.0% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 3.9
4-12 2.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-13 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 13.1 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.4 4.9 58.5 31.7 4.9