Robert Morris
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 #200
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #178
Pace 65.3 #276
Improvement -1.1 #243

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #155 C B+ D+ D C-
Defense #266 D+ C+ C- F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #234 1.07 #280 -2.7 #278
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #142 0.78 #139 +1.0 #120
Three Pointers 41% #179 1.10 #72 +1.7 #122
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #173 +0.0 #174
Freethrows 16.0 #273 70% #267 11.2 #286
Second Chance 36.1% #40 1.08 #124 0.39 #57
Turnovers 17.7% #265
Total Offense +0.3 #155

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #50 1.17 #194 -3.3 #287
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #202 0.80 #262 -0.1 #192
Three Pointers 37% #294 1.09 #276 +0.8 #148
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #264 -2.6 #264
Freethrows 24.1 #363 75% #316 18.1 #362
Second Chance 30.5% #173 0.98 #98 0.30 #126
Turnovers 15.6% #231
Total Defense -2.9 #266

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #238 1.0% #257
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.7% #164 4.1% #258
Possession Length 18.4 #280 17.3 #183
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #343 0.16 #157
Improvement +1.3 #111 -2.3 #310

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 9.8% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 93.2% 96.7% 85.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.1% 87.6% 63.1%
Conference Champion 2.8% 3.8% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round8.8% 9.7% 6.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Home) - 69.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 23 @Iowa L 69 - 101 3% -21  0 - 1 -13 +7 A+ A+ F -21 F F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 158 @Drake W 81 - 79 OT 29% +2  1 - 1 +5 +5 B+ B F -0 A+ B- F
 Thu, Nov 20 136 @St. Bonaventure L 61 - 75 25% -4  1 - 2 -9 -10 F C F +0 C- A A+
 Sun, Nov 23 202 @Monmouth L 70 - 71 OT 39% +1  1 - 3 -1 +1 F A- B- -2 B+ D- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 151 Illinois-Chicago W 88 - 74 50% +13  2 - 3 +12 +19 A- A+ C -7 C C- C
 Fri, Nov 28 284 Southern Utah W 61 - 54 76% +11  3 - 3 -3 -10 F B- D+ +8 A+ C A
 Sun, Nov 30 332 Stetson W 80 - 62 85% +12  4 - 3 +4 +12 A A+ A -5 B+ C F
 Thu, Dec 4 255 @Green Bay W 80 - 78 48% -1  5 - 3 1 - 0 -0 +6 C+ B- F -6 F A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 248 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72 - 74 47% +1  5 - 4 1 - 1 -4 -4 F F C+ +0 D A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 166 Toledo W 75 - 70 54% -6  6 - 4 +1 -1 F D- A+ +3 A+ A F
 Wed, Dec 17 213 Youngstown St. W 80 - 77 OT 64% -3  7 - 4 2 - 1 -3 +7 C B+ A -10 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 358 @St. Francis (PA) W 79 - 70 81% +2  8 - 4 -3 +9 B+ F C -11 D- F F
 Mon, Dec 29 178 Northern Kentucky L 77 - 79 57% +1  8 - 5 2 - 2 -6 +1 D+ A+ D+ -7 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 286 @Detroit Mercy W 85 - 77 56% +0  9 - 5 3 - 2 +4 +12 D A+ F -8 F D A+
 Sun, Jan 4 139 @Oakland L 73 - 96 26% -14  9 - 6 3 - 3 -19 -0 D+ C- C -19 C F F
 Sun, Jan 11 212 Purdue Fort Wayne L 74 - 79 64% -5  9 - 7 3 - 4 -11 +4 C+ F B+ -16 F F A
 Thu, Jan 15 337 @IU Indianapolis L 93 - 96 OT 71% +2  9 - 8 3 - 5 -11 +4 B- C F -15 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 178 @Northern Kentucky W 92 - 89 OT 34% +3  10 - 8 4 - 5 +5 +4 D+ A C -0 C A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 88 - 76 70% +7  11 - 8 5 - 5 +4 +10 A+ A+ F -6 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 255 Green Bay W 75 - 70 69%
 Wed, Jan 28 337 IU Indianapolis W 89 - 77 87%
 Sat, Jan 31 212 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 74 - 76 41%
 Wed, Feb 4 154 Wright St. W 74 - 73 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 213 @Youngstown St. L 73 - 75 42%
 Thu, Feb 12 316 @Cleveland St. W 80 - 76 64%
 Sun, Feb 15 139 Oakland L 80 - 81 46%
 Sun, Feb 22 154 @Wright St. L 71 - 77 29%
 Wed, Feb 25 286 Detroit Mercy W 80 - 72 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 316 Cleveland St. W 83 - 73 82%
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 9 -3 +0 C B+ D+ -3 D+ C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.6 2.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.2 1.9 0.1 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 7.7 5.4 0.5 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 8.9 8.6 1.1 20.0 4th
5th 0.7 7.8 10.2 2.3 0.1 21.0 5th
6th 0.3 4.6 8.8 2.5 0.1 16.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 5.6 2.3 0.1 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.4 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.6 12.3 20.4 23.8 19.8 11.4 3.9 0.7 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 87.1% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 38.8% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1
13-7 6.0% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.7% 23.7% 23.7% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-6 3.9% 19.5% 19.5% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.1
13-7 11.4% 17.5% 17.5% 14.3 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.0 9.4
12-8 19.8% 12.1% 12.1% 14.6 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.1 17.4
11-9 23.8% 8.0% 8.0% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.3 21.9
10-10 20.4% 5.5% 5.5% 15.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 19.3
9-11 12.3% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.2 0.2 11.9
8-12 5.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.5
7-13 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 14.6 91.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.9 18.2 69.7 12.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%