St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#42
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#26
Pace64.9#301
Improvement-1.6#298

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#68
First Shot+3.3#90
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#86
Layup/Dunks+1.5#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#316
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#185
Freethrows+4.8#10
Improvement-1.6#307

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#25
First Shot+2.5#98
After Offensive Rebounds+4.3#9
Layups/Dunks-0.9#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#73
Freethrows+1.0#123
Improvement+0.1#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.5% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.9% 4.7% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.0% 46.3% 29.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 33.7% 38.0% 21.9%
Average Seed 9.4 9.3 9.8
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.1% 97.9%
Conference Champion 11.0% 12.1% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.6% 13.4% 10.4%
First Round36.2% 40.3% 24.1%
Second Round18.0% 20.5% 10.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 6.0% 2.9%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.3% 0.9%
Final Four0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Away) - 74.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 25 - 26 - 6
Quad 39 - 115 - 7
Quad 49 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 166 St. Thomas W 84-58 92%     1 - 0 +22.2 +15.6 +8.7
  Fri, Nov 7 209 Chattanooga W 87-66 94%     2 - 0 +15.0 +13.0 +2.8
  Tue, Nov 11 194 Ohio W 90-60 94%     3 - 0 +24.6 +14.5 +10.4
  Fri, Nov 14 145 North Texas W 80-49 90%     4 - 0 +28.8 +12.0 +18.3
  Wed, Nov 19 155 Arkansas St. W 85-72 91%     5 - 0 +10.0 +12.3 -2.1
  Wed, Nov 26 97 Wichita St. W 70-65 74%     6 - 0 +10.0 +0.7 +9.4
  Thu, Nov 27 70 Virginia Tech W 77-66 65%     7 - 0 +18.8 +9.8 +9.4
  Fri, Nov 28 12 Vanderbilt L 71-96 25%     7 - 1 -6.3 +2.2 -7.6
  Sun, Dec 7 137 @Davidson W 72-65 74%    
  Sun, Dec 14 59 Boise St. W 68-66 60%    
  Fri, Dec 19 126 Florida Atlantic W 77-65 87%    
  Mon, Dec 22 87 Northern Iowa W 68-59 80%    
  Sun, Dec 28 143 @Loyola Marymount W 71-63 75%    
  Tue, Dec 30 298 @Pepperdine W 76-60 93%    
  Fri, Jan 2 270 Portland W 82-61 97%    
  Sun, Jan 4 114 Seattle W 73-62 85%    
  Sat, Jan 10 158 Washington St. W 81-66 91%    
  Tue, Jan 13 99 @San Francisco W 71-67 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 55 @Santa Clara L 72-73 47%    
  Wed, Jan 21 163 Oregon St. W 75-60 92%    
  Sat, Jan 24 270 @Portland W 79-64 91%    
  Sat, Jan 31 4 @Gonzaga L 66-79 12%    
  Wed, Feb 4 262 San Diego W 84-64 96%    
  Sat, Feb 7 99 San Francisco W 74-64 81%    
  Wed, Feb 11 298 Pepperdine W 79-57 98%    
  Sat, Feb 14 139 @Pacific W 72-65 74%    
  Wed, Feb 18 114 @Seattle W 70-65 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 158 @Washington St. W 78-69 78%    
  Wed, Feb 25 55 Santa Clara W 75-70 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 4 Gonzaga L 69-76 28%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.5 3.6 0.6 11.0 1st
2nd 0.3 2.6 9.4 15.5 13.9 5.8 47.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 8.0 8.4 3.6 0.3 23.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.5 0.2 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.3 4.9 8.8 14.2 18.5 19.5 16.1 10.3 3.6 0.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 3.6    2.4 1.2
16-2 43.4% 4.5    1.8 2.6 0.1
15-3 12.0% 1.9    0.4 1.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 1.9% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 5.1 5.3 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 44.1% 55.9% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.6% 94.4% 27.1% 67.4% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 92.3%
16-2 10.3% 84.4% 23.6% 60.8% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.0 1.6 79.6%
15-3 16.1% 66.6% 18.3% 48.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.6 2.8 0.1 5.4 59.1%
14-4 19.5% 49.1% 13.6% 35.5% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 4.4 0.2 9.9 41.0%
13-5 18.5% 31.0% 9.3% 21.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 3.5 0.2 12.8 23.9%
12-6 14.2% 16.2% 6.6% 9.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.1 11.9 10.3%
11-7 8.8% 7.9% 4.2% 3.7% 11.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 8.1 3.8%
10-8 4.9% 3.9% 2.0% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.7 1.9%
9-9 2.3% 3.1% 3.1% 11.2 0.1 0.0 2.2
8-10 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.3% 0.3
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 42.0% 12.5% 29.5% 9.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.7 2.8 3.6 6.1 10.8 14.1 0.7 58.1 33.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.3 25.5 31.9 27.7 14.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 6.1 21.2 24.2 30.3 18.2