St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +13.1 40
Expected Predictive Rating +14.1 38
Pace 64.3 297
Improvement -1.0 231

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #57 B B+ C+ B+ C+
Defense B+ #29 A- A- D+ B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 105 59% 155 +2.1 107
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 181 36% 227 -0.4 205
Three Pointers 38% 240 40% 10 +2.2 107
1st FG Attempt 1.10 72 +3.8 73
Second Chance 37.5% 23 1.09 89 0.41 31
Turnovers 16.3% 141
Freethrows 0.33 94 81% 2 0.27 25
Total Offense +5.9 57

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 186 51% 27 +2.9 87
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 50 35% 80 -1.1 273
Three Pointers 36% 318 29% 24 +5.0 13
1st FG Attempt 0.88 17 +6.8 17
Second Chance 24.1% 14 0.91 41 0.22 14
Turnovers 15.2% 284
Freethrows 0.24 20 72% 160 0.17 26
Total Defense +7.2 29

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.3 157 -0.6 80
Shot Type Accuracy +3.5 71 -6.1 15
Possession Length 17.9 243 17.7 254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 165 0.19 239
Improvement -1.3 #270 +0.3 #164

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 2% 3% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61% 65% 48%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53% 58% 40%
Average Seed 9.8 9.6 10.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 16% 20% 4%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four20% 20% 21%
First Round52% 57% 38%
Second Round22% 25% 14%
Sweet Sixteen5% 6% 3%
Elite Eight1% 2% 1%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Pacific (Away) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 5
Quad 26 - 27 - 6
Quad 311 - 018 - 6
Quad 48 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 123 St. Thomas W 84 - 58 89% +11  86% 1 - 0 A+ +25 A +14 A C- C+ A+ +14 B A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 7 282 Chattanooga W 87 - 66 97% +12  90% 2 - 0 B +11 A- +10 A+ D- F C+ +2 C- B+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 199 Ohio W 90 - 60 95% +15  84% 3 - 0 A+ +24 A +12 B- A+ A- A +13 A+ D A-
 Fri, Nov 14 144 North Texas W 80 - 49 91% +23  95% 4 - 0 A+ +29 A +12 C- A+ C A+ +18 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 141 Arkansas St. W 85 - 72 91% +7  96% 5 - 0 B+ +11 A- +10 B+ A+ D- C+ +2 B+ B F
 Wed, Nov 26 96 Wichita St. W 70 - 65 77% +3  71% 6 - 0 B +10 C -0 F B A- A +11 A- A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 27 55 Virginia Tech W 77 - 66 62% +8  98% 7 - 0 A +21 A- +9 A A F+ A +12 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 14 Vanderbilt L 71 - 96 29% -13  0% 7 - 1 D+ -6 C +1 B+ C- D D -6 C+ F+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 111 @Davidson W 70 - 61 73% +1  43% 8 - 1 A- +16 B- +4 C+ B C+ A +12 A A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 58 Boise St. L 67 - 68 64% -6  2% 8 - 2 B +8 D+ -3 F C+ B- A +12 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 114 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 75 88% +10  94% 9 - 2 B+ +13 B +6 B- B+ C B+ +6 A+ C- C
 Mon, Dec 22 100 Northern Iowa W 63 - 58 85% -2  19% 10 - 2 B- +7 C+ +2 F A+ C B +6 B B+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 151 @Loyola Marymount W 78 - 73 82% +1  56% 11 - 2 1 - 0 B +8 A+ +21 A+ A+ A+ F -11 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 291 @Pepperdine W 72 - 45 94% +12  98% 12 - 2 2 - 0 A +22 B +6 B C+ C+ A+ +20 A+ B B
 Fri, Jan 2 206 Portland W 78 - 57 95% +14  95% 13 - 2 3 - 0 A- +15 B+ +8 A C+ B- A- +9 A+ A F
 Sun, Jan 4 132 Seattle W 93 - 76 90% +0  34% 14 - 2 4 - 0 A- +16 A+ +31 A+ A+ A+ F -13 D- B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 125 Washington St. W 88 - 82 90% +9  93% 15 - 2 5 - 0 B- +5 B+ +9 A F+ F D+ -4 D- B C
 Tue, Jan 13 107 @San Francisco W 82 - 68 71% +9  88% 16 - 2 6 - 0 A +21 A +14 A- A D+ A- +8 B- B+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 44 @Santa Clara L 54 - 62 42% -7  0% 16 - 3 6 - 1 B- +7 F -14 F C+ B- A+ +20 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 178 Oregon St. W 81 - 51 94% +14  97% 17 - 3 7 - 1 A+ +26 A +13 B- A+ A- A+ +17 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 206 @Portland W 75 - 69 88% +4  87% 18 - 3 8 - 1 B- +6 B +6 B+ D- C- C+ +0 B B F
 Sat, Jan 31 13 @Gonzaga L 65 - 73 20% -3  18% 18 - 4 8 - 2 B+ +14 C+ +2 D+ D A A +11 A+ C C+
 Wed, Feb 4 216 San Diego W 87 - 60 95% +19  95% 19 - 4 9 - 2 A +21 A+ +16 A A+ A- B+ +7 C A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 107 San Francisco W 79 - 54 86% +15  95% 20 - 4 10 - 2 A+ +26 A- +10 A B- A+ A+ +18 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 291 Pepperdine W 88 - 60 98% +16  94% 21 - 4 11 - 2 A- +17 B +7 A+ A- F A- +10 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 115 @Pacific W 72 - 65 75%
 Wed, Feb 18 132 @Seattle W 70 - 62 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 125 @Washington St. W 78 - 70 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 44 Santa Clara W 77 - 73 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 13 Gonzaga L 72 - 75 39%
Totals 24 - 6 14 - 4 +13 B +6 B B+ C+ B+ +7 A- A- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C C- A B 41% 20% 38% C+ B B+ B- B+ C+ B- A+ B+ B+ B+ B- A- A- 39% 25% 36% B- A- A- B A- D+ B+ C B+
1.17 59% 36% 40% +3 0 1.10 37% 1.1 .41 16% .33 81% .27 0.98 51% 35% 29% -6 -1 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 15% .24 72% .24
Nov
3		 St. Thomas A A+ D+ A A+ 33% 19% 48% D+ A B+ F C- C+ A B+ A A+ C- F A+ B+ 51% 8% 41% D- B A- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.29 81% 33% 39% +11 0 1.23 37% 0.9 .33 17% .35 79% .28 0.89 65% 75% 24% 0 +3 1.08 14% 0.0 .00 15% .18 30% .05
Nov
7		 Chattanooga A- C A+ A+ A+ 40% 23% 37% D+ A+ D+ F+ D- F A+ A+ A+ C+ D D+ B D+ 29% 29% 42% A- C- C A+ B+ B+ F+ D F
1.29 59% 60% 50% +14 0 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 21% .54 93% .51 0.98 64% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .35 79% .28
Nov
11		 Ohio A C- F A+ B- 42% 19% 38% C B- A- A+ A+ A- B B B+ A C+ B- A+ A+ 34% 28% 38% B A+ C F D A- A+ F A+
1.30 55% 30% 45% +3 0 1.10 42% 1.5 .65 13% .36 77% .28 0.86 56% 40% 15% -11 -1 0.77 29% 1.2 .34 20% .13 86% .11
Nov
14		 North Texas A F F A D+ 47% 13% 40% A- C- A+ B+ A+ C B- A+ A- A+ A+ A C A+ 47% 17% 36% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B
1.20 43% 17% 39% -7 +2 0.91 54% 1.2 .62 22% .41 81% .33 0.73 16% 22% 32% -24 +1 0.57 21% 0.7 .15 12% .24 86% .20
Nov
19		 Arkansas St. A- C F A+ B 51% 19% 30% B+ B+ A+ B A+ D- A+ B A+ C+ A- B- A- A 47% 10% 43% D- B+ C B+ B F A F B+
1.23 59% 13% 54% +5 +1 1.14 41% 1.2 .47 19% .59 76% .45 1.04 48% 33% 28% -9 +2 0.88 37% 0.9 .33 15% .22 85% .19
Nov
26		 Wichita St. C D+ B F F 43% 29% 29% C+ F B- B+ B A- A+ A+ A+ A A- B+ B A 48% 26% 26% C+ A- A+ B+ A+ A- D+ F F+
1.02 52% 43% 7% -12 -1 0.76 31% 1.1 .33 13% .44 85% .37 0.95 46% 31% 31% -9 0 0.84 26% 0.9 .23 19% .34 79% .27
Nov
27		 Virginia Tech A- B A+ C A 49% 16% 36% A- A A B- A F+ A+ A- A+ A C B A+ A+ 25% 31% 44% A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ D+ C- F D-
1.14 64% 57% 31% +4 +1 1.13 41% 1.1 .44 22% .36 79% .28 0.97 62% 31% 26% -6 -2 0.85 39% 0.5 .20 13% .34 85% .29
Nov
28		 Vanderbilt C C+ A- C B+ 35% 24% 41% C+ B+ D- A C- D C+ A+ A D F A+ F C 41% 30% 29% A C+ C+ F F+ D- C D C-
0.98 56% 45% 32% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.2 .24 22% .35 90% .32 1.32 83% 12% 44% +6 -1 1.13 31% 1.5 .49 10% .34 82% .27
Dec
7		 Davidson B- B- C D C+ 46% 33% 22% C C+ A+ F B C+ C+ C C+ A C- B- A+ A 29% 29% 42% A A A A+ A+ D- C+ A+ B+
1.09 62% 40% 30% +1 -1 1.02 46% 0.8 .35 17% .32 65% .21 0.95 60% 40% 27% -3 -2 0.92 23% 0.6 .13 14% .27 53% .15
Dec
14		 Boise St. D+ F+ D- F F 40% 26% 34% C+ F B+ D- C+ B- A+ A+ A+ A C F C+ C 36% 26% 38% A C+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ F A
0.98 47% 33% 25% -10 0 0.81 28% 0.9 .25 15% .41 83% .34 0.99 59% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 22% .26 86% .22
Dec
19		 Florida Atlantic B A+ F F C+ 46% 12% 42% B B- A+ D B+ C A+ A- A+ B+ A+ F B- A+ 46% 17% 37% D+ A+ A+ F C- C F A D
1.15 71% 17% 27% -1 +2 1.04 42% 0.9 .36 17% .52 79% .41 0.98 33% 56% 32% -10 +1 0.85 25% 1.6 .40 18% .40 64% .26
Dec
22		 Northern Iowa C+ F F F F 40% 21% 40% C F A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ B A- D- C+ B 42% 21% 37% B B A+ F B+ D+ A+ F A+
1.02 41% 11% 18% -22 0 0.58 41% 1.2 .49 18% .53 93% .49 0.94 50% 45% 32% -3 0 0.96 10% 1.7 .17 13% .07 75% .06
Dec
28		 Loyola Marymount A+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 40% 29% 31% C- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A- F+ B- F A F D- D 28% 34% 38% A D+ D- F F F C B C+
1.31 56% 38% 50% +7 -1 1.13 38% 1.5 .55 10% .36 68% .24 1.23 46% 56% 39% +6 -3 1.09 32% 1.4 .46 10% .26 64% .17
Dec
30		 Pepperdine B A- B D+ B+ 47% 19% 34% C- B D A C+ C+ F+ A+ C A+ B- B- A+ A+ 35% 19% 46% D+ A+ A- C B B A+ C+ A+
1.17 68% 44% 31% +5 +1 1.13 28% 1.3 .36 16% .19 100% .19 0.73 53% 33% 18% -13 0 0.75 22% 0.9 .19 21% .08 75% .06
Jan
2		 Portland B+ A F+ A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C- A C B- C+ B- A B A A- A- F+ A+ A+ 46% 25% 29% B- A+ D+ A+ A F B- F D+
1.22 71% 25% 43% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.1 .34 16% .39 76% .30 0.89 50% 46% 7% -13 0 0.75 33% 0.7 .23 14% .27 87% .24
Jan
4		 Seattle A+ A+ F A+ A+ 58% 13% 29% A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A F B F F D- 47% 14% 40% D D- A- C- B- F A+ C- A+
1.44 70% 29% 47% +11 +2 1.29 59% 1.2 .72 14% .34 84% .29 1.18 52% 50% 43% +4 +1 1.14 19% 0.9 .17 8% .12 71% .08
Jan
10		 Washington St. B+ D+ D+ A+ A 33% 15% 52% B- A C+ F F+ F B+ A+ A+ D+ F+ F C- D- 43% 12% 45% D- D- B+ C B C D+ C D+
1.24 53% 38% 48% +9 0 1.21 29% 0.6 .18 20% .35 100% .35 1.16 71% 67% 36% +11 +1 1.27 25% 1.0 .25 18% .33 74% .24
Jan
13		 San Francisco A D+ B- A+ A 40% 32% 28% D A- C+ A+ A D+ A+ A+ A+ A- C B- D+ C+ 31% 28% 41% A B- A+ F B+ D A+ A+ A+
1.23 53% 40% 54% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.5 .43 15% .44 88% .39 1.02 59% 33% 36% 0 -1 1.00 18% 1.6 .29 14% .23 38% .09
Jan
17		 Santa Clara F F C- F F 38% 19% 43% C- F C B- C+ B- A- F C+ A+ B A A+ A+ 42% 31% 27% A A+ A+ A A+ C- F D+ F
0.80 39% 33% 15% -20 0 0.62 30% 1.1 .33 19% .40 64% .26 0.92 55% 33% 23% -7 -1 0.85 21% 0.9 .18 15% .35 75% .26
Jan
21		 Oregon St. A C+ D C B- 48% 13% 39% B- B- A- A A+ A- A C A- A+ A+ D- A+ A+ 40% 26% 33% B- A+ B+ A+ A+ D- F C- F
1.29 59% 33% 33% 0 +2 1.04 39% 1.2 .48 11% .41 74% .30 0.81 35% 45% 14% -17 -1 0.67 21% 0.5 .10 14% .50 78% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Portland B D B- A+ B+ 46% 17% 37% B- B+ B- F D- C- B A+ A+ C+ B+ A+ F+ B- 43% 24% 33% B- B A+ F B F C- F D-
1.15 52% 38% 47% +5 +1 1.13 34% 0.7 .24 18% .34 89% .30 1.06 52% 25% 38% -4 0 0.94 21% 1.4 .30 14% .30 88% .27
Jan
31		 Gonzaga C+ A F D C- 26% 38% 36% D- D+ D+ D- D A A+ A+ A+ A D- A+ C- A 29% 42% 29% A+ A+ A F C C+ F+ A D+
0.96 67% 22% 29% -6 -3 0.83 20% 0.7 .14 16% .44 92% .40 1.07 71% 25% 36% -1 -3 0.94 29% 1.5 .45 15% .36 62% .22
Feb
4		 San Diego A+ D+ A A+ A 45% 21% 34% C A B+ A A+ A- B- A A- B+ D+ A+ F C 33% 27% 40% B C B A+ A+ C- C- A+ A
1.36 57% 50% 50% +10 0 1.23 42% 1.3 .55 16% .37 80% .30 0.94 63% 23% 42% +2 -1 1.04 26% 0.5 .13 17% .25 38% .09
Feb
7		 San Francisco A- D+ B- A+ A 52% 19% 30% B+ A A- D B- A+ F B- F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F D+
1.23 54% 40% 50% +5 +1 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 8% .14 75% .10 0.84 40% 22% 25% -15 0 0.71 15% 0.7 .10 9% .27 94% .26
Feb
11		 Pepperdine B F A A+ A+ 32% 20% 48% D- A+ A+ D- A- F A+ F B A- B+ A+ A- A+ 38% 20% 42% D+ A+ B- B- B- D+ A A+ A+
1.23 44% 50% 54% +12 0 1.26 49% 0.9 .46 21% .39 59% .23 0.84 48% 8% 28% -14 0 0.75 26% 0.8 .22 17% .20 58% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.2 12.5 15.7 1st
2nd 0.1 5.6 26.2 31.9 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.2 16.1 26.7 5.0 52.4 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.5 4.2 16.2 32.3 34.4 12.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 12.5    2.9 9.6
15-3 9.2% 3.2    0.0 0.8 2.4
14-4 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 15.7% 15.7 2.9 10.4 2.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 12.5% 88.3% 32.9% 55.4% 8.4 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.3 1.5 82.5%
15-3 34.4% 71.5% 17.0% 54.4% 9.7 0.0 0.5 0.9 2.7 5.0 7.8 7.7 0.0 9.8 65.6%
14-4 32.3% 55.0% 13.2% 41.8% 10.3 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.3 5.1 9.4 0.1 14.5 48.1%
13-5 16.2% 39.1% 11.3% 27.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.1 0.1 9.9 31.3%
12-6 4.2% 27.7% 12.8% 14.9% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.0 3.0 17.1%
11-7 0.5% 13.3% 2.2% 11.1% 11.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11.4%
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 60.9% 16.6% 44.3% 9.8 39.1 53.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 6.9 3.9 11.9 24.8 25.7 20.1 10.7 2.7 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.6% 84.0% 9.3 1.1 6.5 14.0 23.3 25.3 13.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9% 79.6% 9.4 0.7 5.3 12.3 20.0 24.6 16.8