Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -4.1 236
Results Rating -4.0 235
Consistency 0.15 187
Pace 67.6 203
Improvement +2.6 90

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 304 D C- F+ B- C-
Defense C+ 142 F+ C+ A+ F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 106 D+ 54% 284 -0.1 189
2 Pt. Jumpers 55% 34 D+ 34% 293 +0.6 142
Three Pointers 34% 315 C- 32% 246 -4.3 323
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 230 D -3.4 299
1st FG Attempt D 0.95 295
Second Chance C+ 31.9% 128 D- 0.91 330 C- 0.29 225
Opponents' Steals F+ 12.0% 353
Other Turnovers D 8.6% 324
Turnovers F+ 20.5% 352
Freethrows B- 0.33 87 C- 72% 216 B- 0.24 116
Total Offense D -5.1 304

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 51% 138 F 15.8% 357
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A 43% 12 C- 5.7% 238
Three Pointers C 83% 208 D+ 1.3% 294
Total C+ 58% 133 F 8.4% 361


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 13 D 63% 314 +6.8 355
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 263 C- 39% 223 -0.8 121
Three Pointers 36% 324 F 40% 363 +0.6 212
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 333 F+ +5.4 353
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 353
Second Chance B 26.9% 63 C- 1.07 251 C+ 0.29 106
Turnovers from Steals A 13.5% 7
Other Turnovers A- 9.1% 14
Turnovers A+ 22.6% 5
Freethrows F 0.44 365 C 72% 150 F 0.32 365
Total Defense C+ +1.0 142

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 127 D+ 8.4% 278
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 210 C 4.7% 188
Three Pointers C+ 82% 142 D+ 0.4% 295
Total C+ 53% 142 C- 4.9% 231

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 279 16.5 39
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 93 0.24 353
Consistency 0.13 259 0.11 50
Improvement +0.6 153 +2.0 79

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 259 236 211
Results Rating Rank 260 232 199
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 66% 23% 77%
First Four1% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 19.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 32 - 73 - 14
Quad 48 - 411 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 251 Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 71 65% +4  76% 1 - 0 D+ -6 D- -7 C C+ F C+ +0 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 101 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 76 13% -1  31% 1 - 1 C- -2 C- -2 D- D C C -0 D- B+ C-
 Tue, Nov 18 233 @Texas St. L 49 - 63 38% -11  1% 1 - 2 F+ -15 F -20 F B F B- +3 D A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 335 Texas San Antonio W 61 - 50 77% +7  94% 2 - 2 C -1 F -12 F B- F A+ +13 A- C+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 139 William & Mary L 58 - 92 30% -12  1% 2 - 3 F -33 F -22 F F+ F F+ -9 F D+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 270 @Pepperdine W 71 - 63 46% +8  88% 3 - 3 B- +5 C+ +3 C+ C- B+ B- +3 D+ A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 177 New Mexico St. W 77 - 69 50% +5  82% 4 - 3 C+ +4 B +6 A+ B- F C- -2 D+ B A
 Tue, Dec 16 4 @Arizona L 62 - 96 1% -21  0% 4 - 4 D+ -5 C- -2 C C+ D- C- -2 F D A+
 Fri, Dec 19 23 @BYU L 67 - 85 3% -5  28% 4 - 5 C +1 D+ -4 D- A F B +5 D F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 299 @Texas Southern W 75 - 68 55% -2  30% 5 - 5 C +2 C- -2 D+ C F B +4 D C B
 Thu, Jan 1 195 Utah Tech L 64 - 79 54% -14  12% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -20 F -12 C+ F F F+ -9 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 97 Utah Valley W 85 - 68 26% +5  74% 6 - 6 1 - 1 A +20 A +13 A D+ A+ B+ +7 D C A+
 Thu, Jan 8 220 @Tarleton St. W 84 - 80 36% +7  98% 7 - 6 2 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +8 B A+ D- D+ -4 A F C
 Sat, Jan 10 179 @Texas Arlington L 72 - 82 29% -6  2% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D -8 B +6 A- B- D+ F -15 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 134 California Baptist L 58 - 74 39% -13  12% 7 - 8 2 - 3 F+ -17 F+ -10 D+ F B F+ -9 D- C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 261 @Southern Utah L 52 - 74 44% -11  0% 7 - 9 2 - 4 F -25 F -26 F F F C+ +1 D- C- A
 Thu, Jan 29 195 Utah Tech L 70 - 76 54% -7  0% 7 - 10 2 - 5 D -11 F -13 D- A- F B- +2 D+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 261 Southern Utah L 76 - 79 67% +4  84% 7 - 11 2 - 6 D- -12 C- -2 B D+ C F+ -10 F F+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 97 @Utah Valley L 55 - 68 12% -7  23% 7 - 12 2 - 7 C- -4 F -13 C+ F F A +9 B F+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 134 @California Baptist L 63 - 65 20% -4  5% 7 - 13 2 - 8 C+ +3 D -5 F+ D- D- A- +8 C A+ C+
 Thu, Feb 12 179 Texas Arlington W 67 - 63 50% +2  56% 8 - 13 3 - 8 C -0 D+ -4 F B C+ B +4 F A- A+
 Sat, Feb 14 220 Tarleton St. W 73 - 59 59% -3  26% 9 - 13 4 - 8 B- +7 D+ -3 C B F A +11 D A+ A+
 Mon, Feb 16 220 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 65 OT 36% +1  63% 9 - 14 4 - 9 C- -4 F -16 F F F A+ +13 C A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 261 Southern Utah W 87 - 83 67% -4  23% 10 - 14 5 - 9 C- -5 C +1 B F D D -6 F C A+
 Thu, Feb 26 195 @Utah Tech L 81 - 85 31% -4  11% 10 - 15 5 - 10 C- -3 B- +5 C C+ A D- -8 F B C+
 Sat, Feb 28 97 @Utah Valley L 67 - 74 12% -2  29% 10 - 16 5 - 11 C +2 C- -2 F+ A F B- +4 F A+ A
 Thu, Mar 5 134 @California Baptist L 62 - 71 20%
 Sat, Mar 7 179 Texas Arlington W 65 - 64 51%
Totals 11 - 17 6 - 12 -4 D -5 C D C- C+ +1 C- C- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ D+ C- D 41% 55% 34% C- D C+ D- C- F+ B- C- B- C+ D C- F F+ 46% 18% 36% D F+ B C- C+ A+ F C F
1.01 54% 34% 32% -3 0 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 21% .33 72% .24 1.07 63% 39% 40% +5 +1 1.15 27% 1.1 .29 23% .44 72% .24
Nov
6		 Nebraska Omaha D- C C- C+ C- 39% 17% 43% C C A- F C+ F A B- A C+ C- F C- F+ 37% 22% 41% C D- B+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F
1.06 61% 38% 35% +2 0 1.07 38% 0.8 .31 20% .38 76% .29 1.03 60% 56% 35% +5 0 1.12 20% 0.4 .08 23% .59 74% .44
Nov
14		 Stephen F. Austin C- C- F+ F D 47% 35% 18% D- D- C+ F D C B+ A+ A C A+ F F D 43% 17% 40% F D- A+ F B+ C- F A+ F
0.98 54% 33% 22% -7 -1 0.86 30% 0.8 .24 16% .34 84% .28 1.13 35% 50% 53% +3 +1 1.11 17% 1.5 .26 12% .44 58% .25
Nov
18		 Texas St. F F A+ F F 57% 14% 29% B+ F A D+ B F A- F D+ B- A A F D+ 56% 26% 18% F D F A+ A- A+ F B F
0.77 21% 50% 25% -23 +2 0.60 40% 0.9 .35 25% .40 53% .21 1.00 45% 30% 71% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.5 .21 30% .50 73% .36
Nov
24		 Texas San Antonio F F F C+ F 45% 16% 39% B- F A- D B- F A D+ A- A+ B+ B- A+ A 51% 16% 32% F A- B D+ C+ A F A+ F
0.98 30% 14% 35% -16 +1 0.73 45% 1.0 .45 24% .36 71% .26 0.81 47% 33% 17% -15 +1 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 23% .56 56% .31
Nov
25		 William & Mary F C+ B- F F 31% 23% 46% D- F B F F+ F B- F F F+ F F D+ F 55% 15% 30% D+ F B- F D+ B F A F
0.78 63% 42% 21% -7 -1 0.87 35% 0.6 .20 28% .32 35% .11 1.23 85% 57% 36% +18 +2 1.43 24% 1.4 .33 19% .49 67% .33
Dec
2		 Pepperdine C+ C+ B+ C+ B- 33% 24% 43% F C+ D+ C+ C- B+ A+ B- A+ B- F+ A+ D- C- 44% 17% 39% D- D+ A- A+ A C- F C F
1.15 60% 45% 35% +3 -1 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 13% .43 74% .32 1.02 67% 0% 38% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.7 .15 18% .49 76% .37
Dec
6		 New Mexico St. B D A A+ A+ 36% 26% 38% C- A+ A F+ B- F A A- A+ C- A D F C- 41% 19% 41% F D+ F A+ B A F D- F
1.22 53% 45% 50% +9 -1 1.19 41% 1.0 .41 21% .46 83% .38 1.09 47% 43% 40% 0 0 1.03 42% 0.6 .26 19% .68 77% .53
Dec
16		 Arizona C- D- F A C 36% 36% 29% C+ C B- C C+ D- A+ D- A+ C- F F F F 51% 19% 30% F F B F D A+ F D F
0.84 44% 25% 38% -8 -2 0.82 26% 0.8 .21 22% .43 64% .28 1.30 86% 50% 46% +22 +1 1.49 37% 1.3 .47 26% .69 79% .55
Dec
19		 BYU D+ A+ F+ F C- 19% 52% 29% F D- A- B A F B- A+ A+ B F+ F C+ D- 30% 30% 41% A- D A F F A+ F B- F
0.94 89% 28% 21% -5 -5 0.81 33% 1.3 .42 22% .27 93% .25 1.19 73% 64% 33% +12 -2 1.22 30% 2.3 .70 25% .75 73% .54
Dec
22		 Texas Southern C- A+ F F D+ 41% 20% 39% C- D+ D B+ C F A+ A+ A+ B F A+ A D+ 57% 20% 24% F D A+ F C B D- B- D
1.08 74% 22% 28% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.3 .36 22% .50 81% .40 0.98 73% 11% 27% +1 +1 1.07 15% 1.8 .26 20% .34 68% .23
Jan
1		 Utah Tech F A+ F F B- 46% 22% 33% C- C+ C- F F F A+ D A- F+ F F F F 37% 11% 52% D F B- B B- A+ C F D-
0.96 86% 20% 20% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .21 27% .39 68% .27 1.19 71% 60% 46% +16 +1 1.37 26% 0.8 .22 23% .23 92% .21
Jan
3		 Utah Valley A C+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 29% 20% C- A C D D+ A+ F A+ D- B+ C B- F+ D+ 49% 7% 44% D D A- F C A+ D F F+
1.23 57% 56% 45% +8 0 1.18 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 92% .20 0.98 60% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.15 31% 1.3 .38 32% .34 75% .25
Jan
8		 Tarleton St. B+ C- A+ A- B 43% 23% 34% C B B+ A+ A+ D- A C A D+ B+ A- A+ A+ 67% 22% 11% F A D- F F C F F F
1.16 58% 60% 40% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.6 .64 25% .48 73% .35 1.10 48% 30% 0% -14 +2 0.78 35% 1.7 .61 19% .50 93% .46
Jan
10		 Texas Arlington B D+ B+ A+ A+ 28% 46% 26% F A- D+ A+ B- D+ A+ F+ A+ F C D- F F 52% 26% 21% C+ F F F F C- F F F
1.09 55% 44% 50% +8 -4 1.10 25% 1.4 .36 18% .59 66% .39 1.24 55% 45% 44% +3 0 1.10 46% 1.4 .63 20% .55 86% .47
Jan
15		 California Baptist F+ D- D C D 52% 27% 20% C+ D+ F+ F F B A+ D- A F+ D+ A+ F D- 54% 19% 27% D D- C+ B- C+ D+ F F F
0.91 48% 33% 33% -7 0 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 13% .45 68% .30 1.16 58% 11% 46% 0 +1 1.04 36% 0.8 .30 16% .39 86% .33
Jan
17		 Southern Utah F F F F F 55% 14% 31% A F B F F F A+ B+ A+ C+ D- A+ D+ D 45% 12% 43% F D- D- B- C- A C C C
0.73 30% 29% 20% -23 +2 0.59 35% 0.4 .16 21% .44 76% .34 1.04 65% 17% 36% +2 +2 1.10 34% 0.9 .31 24% .26 71% .18
Jan
29		 Utah Tech F D- F C- F+ 48% 14% 38% B D- C- A+ A- F D+ F F B- D+ A+ F D+ 45% 17% 38% D D+ D F F+ A+ F B+ F
0.95 54% 14% 32% -7 +2 0.92 30% 1.5 .43 20% .26 53% .14 1.03 63% 14% 44% +4 +1 1.12 31% 1.1 .34 28% .57 67% .38
Jan
31		 Southern Utah C- A+ D B+ A- 30% 32% 38% F B F A- D+ C D- F F F+ F F F F 53% 32% 16% C+ F F C- F+ A+ F F F
1.11 81% 35% 40% +9 -2 1.17 22% 1.1 .25 13% .20 50% .10 1.16 85% 50% 50% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 32% .45 86% .39
Feb
5		 Utah Valley F F F A+ B 34% 27% 39% D- C+ C F F F D+ F F A C- A+ A+ B+ 62% 11% 28% D- B C F F+ A+ F A+ D+
0.80 40% 25% 53% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 29% .31 47% .14 0.99 62% 20% 23% -4 +3 1.00 37% 1.3 .47 29% .43 52% .23
Feb
7		 California Baptist D F B+ F F 49% 22% 29% B- F+ B+ F D- D- A+ D A+ A- A+ A+ F C 51% 15% 33% D- C A A+ A+ C+ F C+ F
0.93 42% 45% 21% -12 +1 0.80 33% 0.5 .16 18% .47 69% .32 0.96 35% 17% 54% -5 +2 0.95 30% 0.3 .10 18% .61 71% .43
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Texas Arlington D+ F F F F 40% 27% 33% C+ F B C+ B C+ C B C+ B F F F F 63% 23% 14% D- F A+ F A- A+ F A- F
1.00 47% 23% 25% -13 -1 0.75 33% 1.1 .38 16% .36 75% .27 0.94 68% 50% 40% +10 +1 1.26 19% 1.3 .24 33% .51 65% .33
Feb
14		 Tarleton St. D+ C+ D- B C 33% 15% 53% C C A+ D- B F A+ A A+ A C+ F C D 48% 24% 29% D D A A+ A+ A+ F A+ B-
1.04 62% 33% 38% +4 0 1.10 45% 0.9 .42 31% .64 81% .52 0.84 55% 50% 33% +1 0 1.05 23% 0.7 .17 30% .41 55% .22
Feb
16		 Tarleton St. F B+ D- F F 38% 32% 30% F+ F B+ F F F A- F D A+ D- D A+ D+ 35% 35% 30% A- C A+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ F
0.82 67% 33% 14% -7 -1 0.85 39% 0.6 .22 26% .45 56% .25 0.86 64% 43% 25% 0 -2 0.98 10% 0.7 .07 25% .62 74% .46
Feb
21		 Southern Utah C A A F C+ 62% 12% 26% A+ B D- F F D A+ C+ A+ D D+ C+ F F 52% 20% 28% D- F F A C A+ F C- F
1.16 71% 50% 23% +5 +3 1.18 24% 0.6 .14 16% .52 73% .38 1.11 63% 33% 69% +16 +1 1.37 38% 0.8 .29 32% .43 73% .31
Feb
26		 Utah Tech B- A+ F F C+ 42% 23% 35% D+ C F A+ C+ A D A+ C+ D- F F D- F 51% 14% 35% F F A+ F B C+ D+ C- D+
1.16 79% 23% 25% +1 0 1.04 19% 1.8 .35 10% .25 88% .22 1.22 73% 71% 39% +15 +2 1.35 17% 1.3 .21 17% .26 73% .19
Feb
28		 Utah Valley C- F D D+ F 48% 14% 38% B+ F+ C A+ A F A+ A+ A+ B- F B- F F 50% 14% 36% C F A+ A+ A+ A F A F
0.97 40% 33% 31% -11 +1 0.83 30% 1.4 .42 26% .57 83% .47 1.07 71% 33% 47% +13 +2 1.31 19% 0.8 .15 25% .48 60% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 5.4 5.4 4th
5th 25.6 5.2 30.8 5th
6th 19.8 23.2 0.4 43.4 6th
7th 20.5 20.5 7th
Total 40.2 48.8 11.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 11.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 10.7
6-12 48.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7 48.1
5-13 40.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.4 39.9
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.0 98.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.0%
Lose Out 22.1%