Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.0 176
Results Rating +1.3 137
Consistency 0.11 15
Pace 72.2 82
Improvement -0.5 208

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 187 C- C+ C C+ C+
Defense C 174 D+ B+ C+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 93 D+ 55% 264 +0.5 161
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 137 C- 36% 227 -0.5 208
Three Pointers 38% 240 C- 33% 234 -2.2 256
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 155 D+ -2.4 263
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 240
Second Chance C- 28.1% 244 B+ 1.16 33 C+ 0.33 135
Opponents' Steals C 9.5% 191
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 137
Turnovers C 16.4% 158
Freethrows C 0.31 174 C+ 74% 144 C+ 0.23 152
Total Offense C -0.9 187

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 221 D+ 12.3% 266
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 118 C 5.0% 187
Three Pointers A- 95% 6 F 1.9% 347
Total C+ 58% 136 D 6.9% 315


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 92 D 63% 310 +4.0 311
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 208 C- 39% 215 -0.3 165
Three Pointers 39% 256 C 34% 206 -0.9 142
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 244 D+ +2.3 276
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 271
Second Chance C- 31.2% 226 A+ 0.80 4 B+ 0.25 38
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.1% 30
Other Turnovers D- 5.8% 350
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 107
Freethrows C- 0.31 211 B 70% 65 C 0.22 182
Total Defense C -0.1 174

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 147 D+ 8.8% 263
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 223 D- 1.6% 337
Three Pointers B- 81% 96 D 0.2% 327
Total C+ 53% 133 D+ 4.1% 300

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 113 17.0 123
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 122 0.20 272
Consistency 0.14 277 0.12 133
Improvement +4.5 16 -5.1 355

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 188 176 156
Results Rating Rank 170 150 113
Conference Record 15 - 3 15 - 3 15 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24% 33% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round24% 33% 0%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 418 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 344 @Air Force W 74 - 54 80% +10  95% 1 - 0 B +10 D -6 C- D F A+ +16 C+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 100 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 20% -5  2% 1 - 1 D+ -6 F -13 F C- F+ A- +8 C+ A A
 Sat, Nov 15 297 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 66% +3  74% 2 - 1 C +1 F -15 F C- D A+ +15 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 74 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 13% -7  0% 2 - 2 C+ +4 D+ -3 F+ B- C+ A- +7 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 64 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 12% +2  60% 2 - 3 C+ +3 B- +4 B C- B+ C -1 F+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 339 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 90% +7  79% 3 - 3 C+ +3 C+ +3 A- B C+ C+ +1 B B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 152 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 33% -3  11% 3 - 4 D -9 B- +5 A F C+ F -13 F C- C-
 Sun, Dec 7 143 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 31% -0  42% 3 - 5 D -9 F -23 F D- C- A+ +13 B+ F+ A+
 Fri, Dec 12 140 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 53% +6  98% 4 - 5 C -1 C -0 C+ F B+ C -1 D A C+
 Thu, Jan 1 340 North Florida W 102 - 83 90% +8  86% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +4 B- +4 F+ A+ A C- -3 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 293 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 82% +2  65% 6 - 5 2 - 0 D+ -8 F+ -8 F D- B+ C+ +1 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 264 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 57% +3  67% 7 - 5 3 - 0 B- +8 B +6 D+ A+ B B- +2 D B A
 Sat, Jan 10 309 @Stetson W 81 - 69 69% +7  92% 8 - 5 4 - 0 B- +6 C +0 F+ B- A+ B+ +5 B C- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 294 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 82% +1  58% 9 - 5 5 - 0 D -9 C- -2 F+ A C- D- -7 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 197 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 43% -2  22% 9 - 6 5 - 1 C- -3 C- -1 D B- D+ C -1 D- A C-
 Thu, Jan 22 264 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 77% +12  96% 10 - 6 6 - 1 B+ +12 B +7 C B+ A B+ +6 C- B A+
 Fri, Jan 23 309 Stetson W 73 - 65 85% +0  34% 11 - 6 7 - 1 C- -4 D- -7 F A+ D- B- +3 C+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 294 @Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 82 65% +10  97% 12 - 6 8 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +3 B C+ F C -1 A- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 303 @West Georgia W 81 - 78 67% +6  89% 13 - 6 9 - 1 C- -3 D+ -2 F F+ C+ C -0 C- A F
 Wed, Feb 4 197 Lipscomb W 87 - 76 65% +4  60% 14 - 6 10 - 1 B- +6 B +7 A+ F B C- -2 D+ B- C
 Sat, Feb 7 342 North Alabama W 91 - 62 91% +17  90% 15 - 6 11 - 1 B+ +13 A+ +20 A+ A B+ C- -3 D+ A C+
 Wed, Feb 11 204 @Queens W 95 - 87 43% +5  83% 16 - 6 12 - 1 B +9 A- +10 C+ A C C- -2 F A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 14 285 Bellarmine W 90 - 70 80% +15  94% 17 - 6 13 - 1 B +10 A+ +16 A- A D+ C- -3 B F F
 Thu, Feb 19 340 @North Florida W 77 - 76 79% -5  7% 18 - 6 14 - 1 D -8 F -15 F D+ D- B+ +7 A- B- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 293 @Jacksonville W 65 - 61 64% +3  67% 19 - 6 15 - 1 C -1 C- -2 F B A+ B- +2 C+ B- F+
 Wed, Feb 25 169 Central Arkansas L 88 - 93 60% +5  84% 19 - 7 15 - 2 D -9 A +13 A+ C D- F -22 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 28 285 @Bellarmine L 97 - 111 61% -4  6% 19 - 8 15 - 3 F+ -18 D+ -3 F B+ C+ F -13 F F D
 Fri, Mar 6 309 Stetson W 81 - 73 78%
Totals 20 - 8 15 - 3 -1 C -1 A+ D+ C+ C +0 C- C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C- C- D+ 42% 41% 38% C+ C- C- B+ C+ C C C+ C+ C D C- C D+ 42% 19% 39% C- D+ C- A+ B+ C+ C- B C
1.07 55% 36% 33% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.2 .33 16% .31 74% .23 1.09 63% 39% 34% +2 0 1.08 31% 0.8 .25 18% .31 70% .22
Nov
8		 Air Force D B- A+ D C 30% 23% 47% D+ C- C- F+ D F A+ F A+ A+ D A+ D C+ 32% 18% 50% B C+ F A+ B+ A+ F A+ B
1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31 0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16
Nov
11		 Wyoming F B- F F F 46% 10% 44% B F D+ C+ C- F+ C+ B- B- A- A D- F B- 52% 12% 37% D C+ B- A+ A A D- A- D+
0.85 61% 0% 18% -13 +2 0.80 24% 1.0 .24 21% .40 71% .28 1.03 44% 50% 42% -1 +2 1.04 33% 0.7 .23 21% .38 70% .26
Nov
15		 UNC Greensboro F D- F F F 39% 22% 39% C F D+ B- C- D C F D+ A+ C- C+ A- B- 35% 22% 43% C- C+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D A- C
0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16 0.86 59% 36% 29% -4 -1 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25
Nov
18		 Mississippi D+ F D F+ F 29% 21% 50% C+ F+ A- D- B- C+ F A+ F A- C A A+ A+ 29% 35% 37% C A+ D- F F B+ D- B D
0.95 38% 33% 29% -11 -1 0.79 38% 0.9 .36 18% .12 86% .11 1.06 64% 29% 22% -8 -3 0.82 35% 1.3 .45 16% .37 71% .26
Nov
21		 Tulsa B- D- A- A+ B- 49% 17% 34% B B C- C C- B+ C D C C F+ B F F 35% 6% 59% C F+ B+ A+ A+ B- B F C
1.10 50% 44% 44% +2 +1 1.09 25% 1.1 .28 13% .27 69% .19 1.23 67% 33% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 0.8 .20 16% .28 94% .26
Nov
25		 Northern Illinois C+ A+ D A A 36% 14% 50% C A- C+ B+ B C+ A F C C+ F C A+ B 38% 21% 40% B+ B C A- B- F B- A+ A+
1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24 0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13
Dec
3		 Kent St. B- D B- A+ A- 41% 9% 50% B+ A C F F C+ F D F F F D+ F F 40% 10% 50% D- F A+ F C- C- F B- F
1.14 52% 40% 46% +7 +2 1.20 30% 0.5 .16 15% .26 69% .18 1.31 68% 40% 54% +19 +1 1.44 23% 1.7 .38 18% .53 72% .38
Dec
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley F F F F F 58% 14% 28% A F F B- D- C- C- F D A+ B F A B 28% 26% 47% A B+ F D+ F+ A+ C F+ C-
0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21 0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18
Dec
12		 East Tennessee St. C D+ A+ B- C 39% 12% 49% B- C+ C+ F F B+ C- A+ B C D D C D 41% 16% 43% C- D C+ A+ A C+ A D+ A-
1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25 1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
1		 North Florida B- D A+ F F 39% 18% 44% C- F+ B- A+ A+ A B A A- C- B- C F D- 37% 10% 53% D D- B+ A+ A+ C+ F D F
1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25 1.07 53% 40% 41% +3 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35
Jan
3		 Jacksonville F+ C- F F F 44% 20% 35% C- F F+ C- D- B+ C- A B- C+ F+ B F F 38% 20% 42% C F C D C- A+ F A+ C-
1.03 58% 18% 26% -8 0 0.87 23% 0.9 .20 12% .36 77% .28 0.99 65% 33% 42% +7 0 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 25% .38 55% .21
Jan
8		 Florida Gulf Coast B F F B+ D 35% 10% 54% B- D+ C A+ A+ B A D+ B+ B- C F C+ F+ 24% 31% 45% B+ D C+ A- B A D- A D+
1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31 1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
10		 Stetson C F+ A F F+ 40% 31% 29% F+ F+ F A+ B- A+ A+ F A B+ D B- A B 30% 17% 54% C- B F+ B+ C- B- A B+ A
1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28 0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12
Jan
15		 Eastern Kentucky C- D D- D+ F 46% 17% 38% B F+ A- B A C- C- B- C D- F F F F 26% 28% 47% B- F D A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A
1.18 55% 38% 33% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.1 .47 16% .32 76% .25 1.15 91% 58% 50% +25 -2 1.49 35% 0.5 .17 27% .20 56% .11
Jan
17		 Lipscomb C- F B C+ D 33% 33% 34% F+ D D A+ B- D+ C- B+ C C D F B+ D 62% 7% 31% F D- C- A+ A C- C- F F
1.04 47% 42% 35% -2 -2 0.95 26% 1.3 .34 19% .26 75% .20 1.10 65% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 26% 0.5 .13 16% .24 100% .24
Jan
22		 Florida Gulf Coast B D A+ C C+ 28% 24% 48% F+ C B- A- B+ A F C- F B+ C- C+ C C- 37% 27% 37% C- C- F A+ B A+ A A+ A+
1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19 0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08
Jan
23		 Stetson D- B+ C F F+ 33% 31% 37% F F C+ A+ A+ D- C+ C+ C+ B- F+ C+ A- C+ 32% 23% 45% C+ C+ C A+ A+ C- F C- F+
1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22 0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25
Jan
28		 Eastern Kentucky C+ B C- A+ A- 37% 29% 34% D B F A+ C+ F A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ A- A- 25% 31% 44% B+ A- F A+ B+ F F F F
1.22 67% 42% 50% +12 -1 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 23% .67 92% .61 1.11 64% 24% 29% -6 -2 0.85 43% 0.6 .27 12% .42 89% .37
Jan
31		 West Georgia D+ D A+ F F 44% 11% 44% C+ F F+ D F+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C C B C- C 43% 31% 26% D- C- A A- A F F B- F
1.08 55% 60% 20% -8 +2 0.89 22% 0.9 .19 13% .63 83% .53 1.04 56% 33% 33% -3 -1 0.95 21% 0.9 .18 11% .37 68% .25
Feb
4		 Lipscomb B A+ D+ A+ A+ 36% 36% 27% F+ A+ F C+ F B D+ D D C- F A+ A C- 51% 9% 40% D- D+ B- C B- C B+ F B-
1.21 85% 35% 60% +19 -2 1.36 8% 1.0 .08 15% .25 67% .16 1.06 71% 20% 27% +1 +2 1.09 22% 1.0 .22 17% .17 90% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 North Alabama A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 54% 6% 40% A- A+ D A+ A B+ F F F C- B- F A D+ 59% 18% 24% F+ D+ F A+ A C+ A+ F A
1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11 1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14
Feb
11		 Queens A- A- A F B- 52% 25% 23% C C+ C A+ A C A+ A A+ C- D F F F 47% 16% 37% D F A- A+ A+ D+ F A+ F
1.29 68% 50% 27% +6 0 1.15 33% 1.5 .50 15% .51 81% .41 1.18 67% 50% 42% +10 +1 1.25 22% 0.4 .08 14% .53 62% .33
Feb
14		 Bellarmine A+ C+ A A+ B+ 50% 9% 41% A A- B A A D+ A+ A+ A+ C- A A+ F A- 55% 8% 37% F+ B F+ F F F A F B
1.49 64% 50% 50% +14 +2 1.34 41% 1.3 .55 17% .55 86% .48 1.16 48% 25% 44% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.4 .37 10% .22 92% .20
Feb
19		 North Florida F F F F F 63% 11% 27% A F D- B+ D+ D- A+ C+ A+ B+ D- D A+ A 41% 18% 41% C A- D+ A+ B- C+ F C F
0.99 49% 33% 20% -12 +3 0.84 30% 1.3 .40 15% .44 72% .32 0.97 65% 44% 15% -8 0 0.88 27% 0.9 .24 19% .51 78% .40
Feb
21		 Jacksonville C- B- F F F 57% 14% 30% B+ F B B- B A+ B F C- B- D A+ A+ B 60% 12% 29% F C+ F+ A+ B- F+ F D+ F
1.08 64% 0% 23% -7 +2 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 7% .41 61% .25 1.01 60% 20% 17% -8 +3 0.90 35% 0.8 .26 13% .44 74% .32
Feb
25		 Central Arkansas A B- F A+ A+ 50% 2% 48% A+ A+ A- F C D- A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 41% 4% 55% F F A F F D- D F F
1.30 64% 0% 57% +18 +3 1.45 36% 0.9 .32 22% .40 86% .34 1.37 71% 50% 43% +13 +2 1.33 20% 2.0 .40 13% .31 83% .26
Feb
28		 Bellarmine D+ A- F D F 36% 22% 41% C- F D- A+ B+ C+ A+ C A F D F F F 57% 9% 34% F F F+ F F D F D+ F
1.17 71% 23% 33% +1 0 1.03 29% 1.7 .50 15% .42 73% .31 1.34 67% 60% 45% +12 +3 1.33 26% 1.6 .41 13% .47 82% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 24.2% 24.2% 14.3 0.0 2.5 12.9 8.6 0.3 75.8
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.2% 24.2% 0.0% 14.3 75.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.2% 100.0% 14.3 0.2 10.2 53.3 35.3 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 27.3%
Lose Out 27.6%