Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.6 186
Expected Predictive Rating +0.1 159
Pace 81.0 5
Improvement +6.4 11

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #171 C+ C C- D+ B
Defense C- #209 C C- D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 10 56% 219 +4.6 39
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 238 36% 243 -1.5 260
Three Pointers 35% 309 36% 107 -2.3 262
1st FG Attempt 1.03 146 +0.8 146
Second Chance 32.3% 133 0.96 279 0.31 182
Turnovers 17.7% 228
Freethrows 0.31 174 65% 355 0.20 246
Total Offense -0.5 171

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 315 59% 196 +2.9 82
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 252 39% 239 +0.7 135
Three Pointers 49% 16 33% 155 -3.5 320
1st FG Attempt 1.02 178 +0.1 175
Second Chance 27.3% 70 1.20 354 0.33 230
Turnovers 15.5% 261
Freethrows 0.30 182 75% 333 0.23 219
Total Defense -1.1 209

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.0 53 -0.1 152
Shot Type Accuracy -0.3 179 +0.1 184
Possession Length 15.1 17 16.8 98
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 136 0.20 286
Improvement +2.8 #54 +3.6 #24

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 7% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 86% 95% 80%
.500 or above in Conference 94% 99% 90%
Conference Champion 2% 6% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round5% 7% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 37.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 36 - 67 - 11
Quad 410 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 100 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 86 18% -17  7% 0 - 1 F -21 F -11 F+ D- F F+ -9 D- D+ C-
 Sun, Nov 9 288 @North Dakota W 93 - 85 61% +4  66% 1 - 1 C+ +4 B +6 B B- C- C- -3 D D- F
 Tue, Nov 11 146 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 90 30% -5  20% 1 - 2 F -18 F -16 F B+ F C +0 A F F+
 Sun, Nov 16 135 Troy W 94 - 85 49% +4  74% 2 - 2 B- +8 A +13 B+ A+ D+ D -6 D- A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 189 Idaho L 64 - 78 51% -4  30% 2 - 3 F+ -16 F -15 F C+ C C -0 A F C-
 Fri, Nov 28 250 Idaho St. L 50 - 82 63% -18  10% 2 - 4 F -37 F -34 F D F C -1 C- F C+
 Thu, Dec 4 322 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 66 86% +7  73% 3 - 4 1 - 0 B- +8 C +1 B B C B +6 A+ F A
 Sat, Dec 6 119 @UC Irvine L 71 - 85 24% +0  56% 3 - 5 1 - 1 D -8 C+ +3 C+ D- A+ F -11 C- F D
 Wed, Dec 10 140 Fresno St. W 89 - 87 51% +4  72% 4 - 5 C +0 A +14 A+ F+ B+ F -14 F B+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 279 @Delaware W 88 - 66 59% +19  98% 5 - 5 A +18 A +14 A+ C- C+ B +5 B- C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 22 254 Sacramento St. W 100 - 88 74% +4  77% 6 - 5 C+ +4 B- +5 A F B+ C- -3 C+ A- F
 Sat, Dec 27 74 @Stanford L 80 - 88 13% -1  45% 6 - 6 C+ +3 B- +4 B+ F C- C -1 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 180 @UC Davis L 80 - 89 37% -6  21% 6 - 7 1 - 2 D+ -7 C- -1 C- D+ D D -5 F A- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 133 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 65 49% +6  94% 7 - 7 2 - 2 B- +8 F+ -8 D B- F A+ +16 A+ A C+
 Thu, Jan 8 265 Cal Poly W 95 - 90 76% -3  18% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -4 C +1 A C+ C- D -6 C C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 210 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 86 43% +1  65% 8 - 8 3 - 3 D+ -7 D+ -3 C- D+ C+ C- -3 D C- D+
 Thu, Jan 15 139 @UC San Diego W 84 - 79 29% +2  62% 9 - 8 4 - 3 B +9 A- +10 C A A+ C -0 A F+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 251 Long Beach St. L 80 - 87 73% -0  38% 9 - 9 4 - 4 F+ -15 F+ -9 F A- D+ D -6 D- B- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 102 @Hawaii L 68 - 89 19% -9  1% 9 - 10 4 - 5 D- -13 D- -6 C+ D- D+ D+ -5 F A B+
 Thu, Jan 29 180 UC Davis W 94 - 78 60% +4  53% 10 - 10 5 - 5 B+ +12 B- +5 A+ F+ B B +5 B C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 139 UC San Diego W 81 - 64 51% +7  80% 11 - 10 6 - 5 A- +15 C +1 B B+ F A+ +13 A+ C+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 265 @Cal Poly W 97 - 96 55% +5  80% 12 - 10 7 - 5 C- -2 B +7 B+ B C F+ -9 F D+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 293 UC Riverside W 88 - 74 81% +3  66% 13 - 10 8 - 5 C+ +3 B- +5 A- B+ C C- -2 B- D C-
 Sat, Feb 14 102 Hawaii L 78 - 81 38%
 Thu, Feb 19 133 @UC Santa Barbara L 77 - 83 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 251 @Long Beach St. W 81 - 80 52%
 Thu, Feb 26 119 UC Irvine L 77 - 78 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 293 @UC Riverside W 81 - 78 61%
 Thu, Mar 5 322 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 85 - 79 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 210 Cal St. Fullerton W 88 - 84 65%
Totals 17 - 13 12 - 8 -2 C -1 C+ C C- C- -1 C C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C- B- C 48% 18% 35% B C+ C+ D+ C C- C F+ D+ C- C C- C C 33% 18% 49% C C B F+ C- D+ C D- C-
1.08 56% 36% 36% 0 +1 1.03 32% 1.0 .31 18% .31 65% .20 1.10 59% 39% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.2 .33 16% .30 75% .23
Nov
6		 Northern Iowa F F B- D+ F+ 36% 21% 43% C F+ B F D- F A+ B- A+ F+ D- A+ F+ D- 42% 8% 49% D- D- B F D+ C- A F B
0.79 29% 40% 30% -12 0 0.77 29% 0.5 .13 28% .44 74% .33 1.20 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.5 .27 14% .16 80% .13
Nov
9		 North Dakota B A- F A+ B 47% 20% 33% C- B A- D B- C- A+ F B+ C- F B A+ D- 34% 17% 48% B D B+ F D- F C- B C
1.23 71% 20% 47% +9 +1 1.22 42% 1.0 .42 21% .52 61% .32 1.12 80% 30% 25% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.6 .36 11% .34 65% .22
Nov
11		 North Dakota St. F D- F F F 50% 23% 27% B- F C A+ B+ F C+ F C- C C+ D- A+ A+ 30% 18% 52% D+ A F+ F F F+ F D- F
0.84 54% 23% 20% -11 +1 0.80 31% 1.2 .36 25% .26 69% .18 1.12 56% 45% 22% -9 0 0.84 39% 1.4 .54 12% .37 77% .28
Nov
16		 Troy A B- A+ B B- 56% 9% 35% A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ C- C- C- D F+ F C F+ 37% 9% 54% C D- A+ A+ A+ F D F F
1.29 60% 60% 37% +5 +3 1.17 45% 1.3 .61 19% .27 69% .19 1.16 65% 60% 34% +5 +1 1.15 21% 0.7 .15 11% .34 86% .29
Nov
26		 Idaho F A F F F 36% 24% 40% C F C B- C+ C B D- C+ C C A A+ A+ 26% 7% 67% D+ A C- F F C- F F F
0.87 70% 23% 14% -11 -1 0.78 26% 1.1 .28 15% .40 68% .27 1.06 57% 25% 25% -10 +1 0.83 29% 1.6 .47 15% .43 81% .35
Nov
28		 Idaho St. F F F F F 21% 26% 53% F F C F D F C C+ C C A- F C+ D+ 25% 22% 53% A C- A F F C+ C F+ C-
0.66 25% 13% 20% -24 -2 0.49 30% 0.9 .26 20% .31 79% .25 1.09 46% 73% 33% +4 -1 1.08 25% 1.9 .46 19% .31 79% .24
Dec
4		 Cal St. Bakersfield C C A+ C- C+ 57% 8% 35% A B B- B- B C B F D- B A+ A A+ A+ 31% 31% 38% C A+ D- F F A F D- F
1.17 59% 75% 33% +3 +3 1.14 41% 1.1 .46 18% .41 52% .21 0.89 40% 27% 22% -16 -2 0.67 38% 1.2 .45 24% .43 79% .34
Dec
6		 UC Irvine C+ D- F A+ C 48% 19% 33% B+ C+ F D+ D- A+ B- F C- F A- D D- C 42% 27% 31% C- C- F F F D D C+ D+
1.02 43% 27% 42% -5 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .19 10% .29 61% .18 1.22 45% 43% 38% -2 -1 0.96 41% 1.9 .76 14% .35 67% .23
Dec
10		 Fresno St. A B- A+ A+ A+ 48% 11% 41% A- A+ C F F+ B+ D+ A+ B- F D B- F F 37% 11% 52% D+ F A- B B+ D B- F C-
1.25 65% 67% 45% +14 +2 1.33 29% 0.6 .18 17% .24 93% .22 1.22 65% 33% 46% +12 +1 1.28 23% 0.9 .20 15% .27 88% .23
Dec
13		 Delaware A D- A+ A+ A+ 43% 19% 38% B+ A+ A- F C- C+ D C- D B A+ F C- B 29% 13% 58% D+ B- F+ A+ C+ A- F D+ F
1.30 52% 70% 50% +13 +1 1.28 38% 0.7 .26 13% .24 79% .19 0.98 43% 50% 36% -1 0 1.00 26% 0.6 .15 22% .34 78% .27
Dec
22		 Sacramento St. B- B- A+ B+ A 50% 9% 41% B+ A F+ F F B+ A+ B- A+ C- B+ D- B C 32% 32% 35% B C+ A+ F A- F D+ F F
1.23 62% 80% 38% +8 +2 1.22 25% 0.7 .17 13% .43 77% .33 1.08 48% 43% 30% -4 -2 0.91 15% 1.5 .23 10% .37 89% .33
Dec
27		 Stanford B- D+ F+ A+ B+ 44% 21% 35% B B+ F F F C- A+ B+ A+ C D+ B F F 39% 7% 54% C F A+ A+ A+ B- F B- F
1.06 52% 30% 47% +3 0 1.08 17% 0.8 .13 20% .50 80% .40 1.17 61% 33% 44% +9 +2 1.24 24% 0.5 .12 17% .61 71% .43
Jan
1		 UC Davis C- C F C- D 55% 7% 38% A C- C+ F D+ D A F B- D F+ C- F F 24% 29% 47% A+ F B+ A- A- B- B+ D+ B
1.05 58% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.02 33% 0.8 .26 21% .43 62% .26 1.16 69% 38% 50% +14 -2 1.25 22% 0.9 .19 20% .29 78% .23
Jan
3		 UC Santa Barbara F+ B- A+ F F+ 52% 14% 33% A- D B C+ B- F A+ F A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 46% 5% 48% F A+ A B- A C+ D+ F D-
1.01 64% 67% 14% -3 +2 1.00 31% 1.1 .34 22% .65 62% .40 0.89 54% 0% 19% -15 +3 0.77 24% 0.9 .21 19% .34 85% .29
Jan
8		 Cal Poly C C B- A+ A 53% 13% 34% B+ A A- D- C+ C- A+ F B D C A- D+ C- 23% 13% 64% A C A F C- F C C+ C+
1.17 61% 43% 50% +10 +2 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 17% .40 59% .24 1.11 57% 25% 36% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.4 .32 16% .31 76% .24
Jan
10		 Cal St. Fullerton D+ C F C+ D+ 47% 15% 38% B C- D+ C- D+ C+ D- F F C- C- A F D 41% 15% 44% D D B- F C- D+ F B- D-
1.01 61% 22% 35% -1 +1 1.03 26% 1.0 .26 18% .25 38% .09 1.10 59% 25% 42% +4 +1 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 14% .42 68% .28
Jan
15		 UC San Diego A- D A- D C- 48% 20% 31% B- C B+ A- A A+ A+ D A+ C B D+ A+ A 38% 17% 45% B- A B+ F F+ F C- F+ D+
1.16 50% 45% 29% -4 +1 0.94 36% 1.2 .44 10% .44 66% .29 1.09 52% 40% 26% -7 0 0.88 21% 1.7 .36 8% .29 74% .21
Jan
17		 Long Beach St. F+ F D- F F 56% 11% 33% A F A- C+ A- D+ A D+ B+ D F C C- D- 26% 20% 54% D D- A+ F B- C- F F F
1.01 47% 33% 22% -13 +2 0.81 37% 1.3 .46 19% .45 72% .33 1.10 79% 36% 34% +5 -1 1.11 18% 1.3 .24 16% .42 82% .35
Jan
24		 Hawaii D- D- B+ C- C+ 45% 28% 28% D+ C+ A- F D- D+ C F F+ D+ D+ F F F 30% 19% 51% A F D A+ A B+ F C F
0.88 46% 44% 31% -5 0 0.91 35% 0.5 .19 18% .30 47% .14 1.15 63% 50% 41% +9 0 1.19 34% 0.6 .21 22% .48 72% .35
Jan
29		 UC Davis B- A+ F B+ A 48% 8% 43% B+ A+ D F+ F+ B C+ F F+ B B- A+ D- B 35% 25% 40% B- B B D+ C+ D+ D+ A+ B-
1.18 76% 20% 38% +10 +2 1.27 26% 0.8 .21 16% .34 52% .18 0.98 55% 21% 39% -2 -1 0.96 23% 1.1 .26 16% .37 64% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC San Diego C C B+ C B- 48% 17% 35% B+ B A D+ B+ F A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ 43% 16% 41% C+ A+ D+ B+ C+ D+ C A+ A-
1.08 56% 44% 33% 0 +1 1.04 40% 1.0 .40 21% .39 78% .30 0.85 42% 22% 30% -12 +1 0.80 29% 0.9 .25 15% .28 44% .12
Feb
5		 Cal Poly B D A+ A+ B+ 49% 17% 33% B- B+ D A+ B C F D+ F F+ F D- F 33% 0% 67% D+ F A+ F D+ D A F B+
1.22 55% 55% 48% +8 +1 1.21 27% 1.6 .43 16% .15 70% .10 1.20 74% 38% +10 +2 1.26 16% 2.0 .32 19% .22 93% .20
Feb
7		 UC Riverside B- C+ B- A+ B+ 62% 17% 21% A- A- C- A+ B+ C B- F F C- C D A- B 25% 13% 63% C B- F C D C- A F C+
1.21 61% 44% 55% +9 +2 1.25 29% 1.3 .39 15% .36 45% .16 1.02 57% 43% 29% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.9 .30 18% .22 92% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 1.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.3 2.6 3.1 0.4 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.6 6.3 10.1 2.2 0.1 19.2 3rd
4th 0.7 9.7 15.7 4.5 0.0 30.6 4th
5th 0.2 5.7 13.0 3.9 0.2 23.0 5th
6th 0.0 2.4 7.3 3.0 0.1 12.8 6th
7th 0.5 2.8 1.8 0.1 5.2 7th
8th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.8 5.6 15.4 26.4 26.2 17.6 6.5 1.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 70.8% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2
14-6 19.7% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.4% 19.0% 19.0% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1
14-6 6.5% 13.8% 13.8% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 5.6
13-7 17.6% 8.0% 8.0% 14.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 16.1
12-8 26.2% 5.5% 5.5% 14.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 24.8
11-9 26.4% 3.4% 3.4% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 25.5
10-10 15.4% 1.0% 1.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.3
9-11 5.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 5.6
8-12 0.8% 0.8
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.1 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.8 34.6 46.2 19.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 0.5%