SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.2 270
Expected Predictive Rating -7.6 291
Pace 64.9 279
Improvement +3.0 63

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- #337 D- D C- C D+
Defense C #149 C D+ B F+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 294 56% 212 -2.8 282
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 91 33% 326 +0.4 156
Three Pointers 41% 192 29% 345 -3.3 293
1st FG Attempt 0.90 334 -5.8 334
Second Chance 26.9% 279 0.93 307 0.25 315
Turnovers 18.0% 255
Freethrows 0.32 134 68% 303 0.22 178
Total Offense -6.7 337

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 248 60% 242 +0.3 161
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 128 35% 90 +0.1 183
Three Pointers 42% 152 35% 221 -0.9 225
1st FG Attempt 1.03 192 -0.5 192
Second Chance 31.4% 224 1.09 278 0.34 257
Turnovers 19.7% 42
Freethrows 0.38 338 75% 313 0.28 350
Total Defense +0.6 149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.8 295 -0.3 116
Shot Type Accuracy -4.9 330 +0.7 211
Possession Length 17.9 246 17.6 240
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 253 0.21 309
Improvement +1.0 #126 +2.0 #77

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 1% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 23% 7% 34%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Away) - 40.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 60 - 8
Quad 32 - 62 - 14
Quad 48 - 710 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 65 @Mississippi L 58 - 88 6% -12  32% 0 - 1 F -19 F+ -8 D+ F D+ F -12 F+ D+ B-
 Fri, Nov 7 290 @Louisiana L 52 - 58 44% -9  0% 0 - 2 D -10 F -14 F D- D+ C+ +2 F A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 10 131 @Georgia Tech L 60 - 70 15% -0  53% 0 - 3 D+ -5 F -17 D- F F A +12 A- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 79 @Mississippi St. L 68 - 75 7% -5  21% 0 - 4 C+ +3 D -4 D D- C+ A- +8 B- C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 113 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 70 13% +1  59% 0 - 5 D+ -7 F+ -9 F+ F+ B+ C+ +1 C+ B C+
 Fri, Nov 28 363 Gardner-Webb W 76 - 68 87% -2  36% 1 - 5 D -11 F -10 F F C- C -1 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 166 Navy W 69 - 65 29% +7  72% 2 - 5 C+ +4 C +1 A+ C F B- +3 B B- C
 Sun, Dec 7 280 Northwestern St. L 68 - 76 64% +3  70% 2 - 6 0 - 1 F -18 F+ -8 F D+ C+ F+ -10 D F A
 Sat, Dec 13 298 @Houston Christian W 74 - 71 OT 45% +3  77% 3 - 6 1 - 1 C- -2 D -5 F D C- B- +4 C- D+ A
 Mon, Dec 15 300 East Texas A&M L 69 - 70 68% +1  44% 3 - 7 1 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 D+ F A+ F+ -9 F+ B- C
 Fri, Dec 19 57 @LSU L 65 - 78 5% -12  1% 3 - 8 C -0 C+ +3 D A+ B- D+ -5 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 30 255 @Incarnate Word L 70 - 79 36% -4  7% 3 - 9 1 - 3 D- -11 F -11 F F+ C C -0 C- F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 105 Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 73 24% -8  5% 3 - 10 1 - 4 D -9 D- -7 D C+ D+ C- -2 B- D+ A
 Mon, Jan 5 196 Lamar W 60 - 52 47% +9  90% 4 - 10 2 - 4 C+ +3 D- -7 C+ F A- A +11 A+ D A-
 Sat, Jan 10 88 @McNeese St. L 61 - 73 9% -7  13% 4 - 11 2 - 5 C- -3 D+ -3 D A- D C -1 D- A- B
 Mon, Jan 12 225 New Orleans L 76 - 79 51% -1  29% 4 - 12 2 - 6 D -9 D -4 F C+ B- D+ -5 B F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 56 - 68 26% -14  0% 4 - 13 2 - 7 D- -12 F -16 D- D- F B +5 D F+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 149 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 65 - 68 18% -4  6% 4 - 14 2 - 8 C +1 D+ -4 C F B B- +4 C+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 266 Nicholls St. W 67 - 61 61% +2  46% 5 - 14 3 - 8 C- -3 F -13 F F F+ A +10 A+ B B+
 Tue, Jan 27 88 McNeese St. L 66 - 76 20% -8  8% 5 - 15 3 - 9 D+ -7 D -5 C D+ D C- -3 D- C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 58 - 85 11% -21  0% 5 - 16 3 - 10 F -20 D+ -4 D B F F -20 F F B-
 Mon, Feb 2 196 @Lamar L 54 - 73 26% -8  1% 5 - 17 3 - 11 F -18 F -12 F C B+ F+ -9 D+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 298 Houston Christian W 55 - 47 67% +6  97% 6 - 17 4 - 11 C- -3 F -14 D- D F A+ +13 A+ B+ B+
 Mon, Feb 9 255 Incarnate Word W 74 - 62 59% +12  90% 7 - 17 5 - 11 C+ +4 C+ +3 D+ B+ A C+ +2 A- C B
 Sat, Feb 14 280 @Northwestern St. L 65 - 67 41%
 Mon, Feb 16 300 @East Texas A&M L 66 - 67 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 149 UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 70 37%
 Mon, Feb 23 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64 - 65 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 266 @Nicholls St. L 68 - 71 39%
 Mon, Mar 2 225 @New Orleans L 70 - 76 29%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 15 -6 D- -7 D- D C- C +1 C D+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- C- D F+ D- 34% 25% 41% D+ D- D+ D D C- C+ D C C C- B- C- C- 36% 22% 42% C+ C C- D+ D+ B D- D F+
0.99 56% 33% 29% -5 -1 0.90 27% 0.9 .25 18% .32 68% .22 1.08 60% 35% 35% +1 0 1.03 31% 1.1 .34 20% .38 75% .24
Nov
3		 Mississippi F+ B+ F F+ D 30% 12% 58% B+ D+ D+ F F D+ A+ F A- F F+ F C- F 29% 29% 42% D F+ F A+ D+ B- F F F
0.87 62% 0% 28% -8 +1 0.86 26% 0.6 .16 20% .47 60% .28 1.32 71% 57% 35% +10 -2 1.19 44% 0.8 .37 15% .53 83% .44
Nov
7		 Louisiana F D F F F 41% 8% 51% B- F C- F D- D+ A+ F A+ C+ C F D- F 22% 46% 32% A+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ D+ A+ C+
0.89 53% 0% 21% -15 +2 0.76 31% 0.8 .26 19% .66 58% .38 1.00 56% 63% 38% +13 -4 1.20 16% 0.5 .08 21% .26 58% .15
Nov
10		 Georgia Tech F F C- D D 26% 31% 43% F+ D- D- F F F D+ A+ C+ A B B+ C B+ 36% 31% 33% A- A- B- F F A+ F D F
0.79 43% 35% 30% -7 -2 0.83 23% 0.4 .10 26% .27 80% .21 0.92 53% 31% 36% -3 -2 0.93 30% 1.6 .47 26% .46 73% .34
Nov
15		 Mississippi St. D B- C- F D 29% 33% 38% C- D D+ F D- C+ B- A+ A- A- F+ A C C+ 27% 31% 41% A B- B D C+ A+ F C F
0.92 59% 37% 18% -9 -2 0.79 23% 0.7 .16 14% .28 89% .25 1.02 71% 31% 33% +1 -2 1.00 28% 1.1 .31 22% .40 70% .28
Nov
26		 UNC Wilmington F+ A+ B- F D- 21% 27% 52% D F+ D- F F+ B+ D+ F F C+ F D A+ C+ 26% 28% 47% B+ C+ B B B C+ F F+ F
0.91 91% 43% 15% -7 -2 0.85 21% 0.9 .18 11% .22 50% .11 1.12 82% 42% 20% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.0 .31 16% .57 77% .44
Nov
28		 Gardner-Webb F A+ C F F 29% 22% 49% D- F D F F C- A+ A- A+ C D A- D+ F+ 38% 20% 43% B- D- B F F A+ F D F
1.06 79% 36% 21% -4 -1 0.92 31% 0.7 .22 15% .53 78% .41 0.95 60% 25% 35% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 29% .49 72% .36
Nov
29		 Navy C A C A+ A+ 26% 42% 33% F A+ D A- C F A- B+ A B- D+ A+ A+ B+ 43% 29% 29% C+ B A F+ B- C F A- F
1.07 73% 39% 57% +16 -4 1.26 25% 1.2 .29 26% .31 80% .25 1.00 61% 25% 25% -6 -1 0.88 24% 1.3 .29 19% .53 68% .36
Dec
7		 Northwestern St. F+ A+ F+ F F 35% 28% 37% F+ F D- B D+ C+ A+ D+ A+ F+ F+ B+ F F+ 36% 38% 26% A- D F F F A F D F
1.03 80% 33% 13% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.2 .32 17% .55 70% .38 1.15 64% 33% 40% +3 -2 1.03 41% 1.6 .67 23% .53 78% .41
Dec
13		 Houston Christian D D+ D D+ F 39% 24% 37% D- F D+ D+ D C- A+ C- A+ B- C- A+ C- C 48% 12% 40% F C- D- C D+ A D- B- D+
1.05 58% 33% 33% -1 0 0.98 30% 1.0 .30 19% .44 72% .31 1.01 58% 17% 35% -2 +2 1.02 34% 0.8 .29 23% .33 67% .22
Dec
15		 East Texas A&M D+ D- C- A C- 39% 27% 33% F+ D+ D- F F A+ D+ A- C F+ A+ F F F 30% 26% 43% A F+ B C+ B- C F F F
1.07 50% 36% 41% 0 -1 1.00 25% 0.8 .19 11% .30 76% .23 1.08 43% 50% 45% +6 -1 1.11 20% 0.8 .17 19% .32 82% .27
Dec
19		 LSU C+ C A F D 33% 22% 45% C- D C+ A+ A+ B- C- A C+ D+ F A F F 34% 17% 49% C+ F A+ A A+ D F A- F
1.06 56% 45% 23% -6 -1 0.88 30% 1.4 .42 15% .29 73% .21 1.27 79% 29% 45% +14 0 1.29 24% 1.0 .24 13% .50 70% .36
Dec
30		 Incarnate Word F D F F F 50% 16% 34% C+ F C+ F F+ C D- A C- C B+ A+ F D+ 31% 22% 47% C C- B+ F F C+ C+ D- C
0.96 54% 22% 21% -11 +1 0.82 34% 0.7 .24 17% .33 80% .26 1.09 47% 17% 46% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.5 .39 17% .26 75% .20
Jan
3		 Stephen F. Austin D- B- F F+ D+ 30% 34% 36% F D D- A+ C+ D+ F A+ D C- A D C B- 28% 32% 40% B+ B- F B+ D+ A F F F
0.95 60% 29% 28% -6 -2 0.86 23% 1.5 .34 18% .20 91% .18 1.10 43% 44% 35% -2 -2 0.94 42% 0.9 .37 18% .35 79% .27
Jan
5		 Lamar D- D+ F A- C 49% 11% 41% A C+ D F F A- A+ F B+ A A A+ A+ A+ 27% 34% 39% C+ A+ F B- D A- F F F
1.01 56% 25% 40% +1 +2 1.08 25% 0.5 .13 13% .60 52% .31 0.88 42% 20% 24% -17 -3 0.64 42% 0.9 .39 20% .44 86% .38
Jan
10		 McNeese St. D+ F+ F D- F 49% 3% 49% A+ D C+ A+ A- D A+ F A+ C D+ A D- D 54% 14% 32% F+ D- D- A+ A- B C+ B- B-
0.97 47% 0% 29% -10 +3 0.89 37% 1.4 .50 27% .61 64% .39 1.16 63% 29% 38% +3 +2 1.12 41% 0.6 .25 16% .28 73% .21
Jan
12		 New Orleans D D F F F 27% 36% 38% F F B- C- C+ B- A+ F A+ D+ D- A+ B B 38% 27% 35% C+ B D- F F A- F D F
1.09 50% 31% 24% -10 -3 0.76 38% 1.0 .38 13% .64 67% .43 1.14 64% 20% 31% -4 -1 0.92 40% 1.5 .60 23% .73 79% .58
Jan
17		 TX A&M Corpus Christi F D- F B F+ 57% 19% 23% B D- F+ C- D- F F F F B A+ F F D+ 60% 12% 28% F D C- F F+ A+ F C F
0.80 52% 11% 36% -8 +2 0.89 21% 1.0 .21 27% .25 62% .16 0.97 38% 80% 42% -4 +3 1.00 30% 1.2 .37 26% .46 67% .31
Jan
19		 UT Rio Grande Valley D+ B+ F C+ C 37% 22% 41% C C D- F F B C D- D+ B- B+ F B C+ 32% 18% 50% B- C+ B- A B+ D F A F
0.99 67% 18% 35% -1 0 1.00 24% 0.6 .14 15% .32 67% .22 1.03 50% 63% 32% 0 0 1.02 26% 0.9 .23 15% .45 68% .31
Jan
24		 Nicholls St. F C- B- F F 33% 27% 40% F+ F B F F F+ A+ C- A+ A A+ F+ A+ A+ 33% 14% 53% C- A+ C+ A B B+ F F F
0.95 60% 42% 28% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.5 .19 26% .55 76% .42 0.86 38% 43% 23% -15 0 0.73 25% 0.8 .20 20% .42 75% .32
Jan
27		 McNeese St. D B F B+ C+ 22% 22% 57% D- C F A+ D+ D A+ B A+ C- F+ F A+ F+ 48% 23% 30% C+ D- A- D- C+ A- F B F
0.99 63% 13% 38% -1 -1 0.97 25% 1.4 .36 27% .74 78% .58 1.14 68% 56% 25% +5 0 1.13 29% 1.1 .32 18% .53 72% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Stephen F. Austin D+ F+ F B D+ 33% 33% 35% F D C A- B F B+ B A- F F A+ F F 24% 22% 53% C F D- F F B- C+ B- C+
0.96 46% 31% 36% -5 -2 0.88 30% 1.3 .37 21% .36 76% .27 1.40 73% 20% 58% +19 -1 1.38 38% 1.8 .67 15% .21 64% .14
Feb
2		 Lamar F F B- F+ F 41% 22% 37% C+ F F A+ C B+ F+ F F F+ D C+ C- D+ 29% 31% 39% C- D+ F+ D- F F B A+ A
0.89 42% 40% 29% -9 0 0.85 21% 1.6 .32 15% .31 25% .08 1.20 60% 38% 35% +1 -2 1.00 39% 1.1 .45 10% .18 50% .09
Feb
7		 Houston Christian F C+ A- D D 34% 27% 39% F D- B- F D F F F F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 23% 31% C A+ F A+ B+ B+ F D- F
0.97 64% 45% 31% +3 -1 1.05 37% 0.8 .30 28% .17 57% .10 0.83 50% 11% 25% -14 0 0.74 37% 0.5 .17 21% .36 75% .27
Feb
9		 Incarnate Word C+ D A C+ C- 32% 26% 43% F D+ C A B+ A F F F C+ C- A+ C+ A- 29% 33% 38% A A- D B- C B D F F
1.21 53% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 33% 1.4 .45 11% .30 63% .18 1.01 57% 19% 33% -7 -2 0.83 35% 0.8 .30 18% .32 94% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 5th
6th 0.5 2.0 0.1 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.9 1.8 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 2.0 12.8 7.9 0.4 23.2 8th
9th 0.2 10.9 10.2 0.8 22.0 9th
10th 0.0 4.6 12.7 1.8 0.0 19.1 10th
11th 1.8 10.5 3.7 0.0 16.1 11th
12th 4.6 4.0 0.1 8.7 12th
Total 6.4 19.3 29.3 25.6 14.1 4.7 0.6 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-12 4.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.7
9-13 14.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.1
8-14 25.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.6
7-15 29.3% 29.3
6-16 19.3% 19.3
5-17 6.4% 6.4
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.4%