UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.6 149
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 182
Pace 68.6 184
Improvement +3.8 42

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #166 C+ C C- D- C+
Defense C #138 C B- C C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 231 59% 150 -0.7 207
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 241 33% 322 -2.1 282
Three Pointers 46% 79 36% 80 +4.1 53
1st FG Attempt 1.05 134 +1.3 133
Second Chance 28.1% 246 1.08 101 0.30 196
Turnovers 17.7% 235
Freethrows 0.23 358 76% 60 0.17 340
Total Offense -0.4 166

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 261 61% 279 +0.2 166
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 142 36% 94 +0.2 176
Three Pointers 43% 125 33% 130 -0.1 190
1st FG Attempt 1.01 172 +0.3 172
Second Chance 31.1% 204 0.86 15 0.27 67
Turnovers 17.3% 163
Freethrows 0.33 264 72% 143 0.24 255
Total Defense +0.9 138

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.3 155 -0.3 112
Shot Type Accuracy +1.0 133 +0.0 183
Possession Length 17.7 224 17.0 142
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 276 0.18 202
Improvement +3.2 #43 +0.6 #140

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 10% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.9
.500 or above 90% 98% 83%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round8% 10% 7%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 35 - 26 - 8
Quad 411 - 617 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 42 @Baylor L 81 - 96 9% -6  38% 0 - 1 C +1 C+ +3 A- F+ B- C -0 F+ A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 284 @Southern Utah W 95 - 72 67% +11  92% 1 - 1 A +19 A+ +15 A+ C- D B- +3 C+ B+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 58 @Boise St. L 65 - 85 14% -9  8% 1 - 2 D+ -8 F -10 C+ D F B- +4 C+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 179 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 45% +2  68% 1 - 3 D+ -5 C -0 F+ A+ F D -6 C- A F
 Mon, Nov 24 6 @Illinois L 73 - 87 2% -8  19% 1 - 4 B +10 B +6 B- B- A+ B +4 C A+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 26% -8  6% 1 - 5 0 - 1 D+ -6 F+ -9 F+ F A B- +3 B+ B D-
 Sun, Dec 7 152 Austin Peay W 63 - 50 63% +0  48% 2 - 5 B +10 F -12 F+ A F A+ +22 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 11 169 Texas Arlington L 50 - 58 66% -0  40% 2 - 6 D- -12 F -14 D F D C+ +1 C C B
 Tue, Dec 16 196 @Lamar W 83 - 72 50% +12  98% 3 - 6 1 - 1 B+ +12 B+ +8 A+ F B- B- +3 D- A+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 225 New Orleans L 69 - 85 75% -8  7% 3 - 7 1 - 2 F -22 F -12 B F F F+ -11 C- F F
 Wed, Dec 31 266 Nicholls St. L 69 - 71 82% -2  18% 3 - 8 1 - 3 D -11 F -10 F+ C F C -1 C D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 63 72% -1  27% 3 - 9 1 - 4 D -10 F+ -9 F F B+ C -1 C+ F B-
 Mon, Jan 5 255 Incarnate Word W 80 - 67 80% +8  96% 4 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +5 B- +5 C- A- C+ C+ +0 A- B D-
 Sat, Jan 10 300 @East Texas A&M L 69 - 77 71% -9  13% 4 - 10 2 - 5 D- -13 C- -1 B D- C- F -12 F F C
 Mon, Jan 12 280 @Northwestern St. L 63 - 64 67% +4  90% 4 - 11 2 - 6 D+ -5 F -10 D- F F+ B +5 C+ B B
 Sat, Jan 17 88 McNeese St. W 79 - 76 41% +10  89% 5 - 11 3 - 6 B- +6 A +12 A+ B- A D -5 B- A- D-
 Mon, Jan 19 270 SE Louisiana W 68 - 65 82% +4  89% 6 - 11 4 - 6 D+ -6 D+ -4 C F+ A C- -2 D A D
 Sat, Jan 24 298 @Houston Christian W 68 - 51 70% +8  86% 7 - 11 5 - 6 B+ +12 C- -1 B+ F C A+ +16 C- B A+
 Mon, Jan 26 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 64 - 55 50% +3  66% 8 - 11 6 - 6 B +9 C- -2 D B- C A +12 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 255 @Incarnate Word W 106 - 93 61% +7  77% 9 - 11 7 - 6 B +11 A+ +25 A+ B A+ F -15 F A B+
 Mon, Feb 2 298 Houston Christian W 74 - 57 86% +15  97% 10 - 11 8 - 6 B- +6 C +2 F+ A+ F B+ +7 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 225 @New Orleans W 95 - 76 54% +16  98% 11 - 11 9 - 6 A +19 A +11 B+ A+ F+ B+ +6 B- D+ C-
 Mon, Feb 9 266 @Nicholls St. W 92 - 72 63% +14  98% 12 - 11 10 - 6 A- +17 A+ +16 A- A+ D+ C+ +1 C- B- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 105 Stephen F. Austin L 71 - 72 46%
 Mon, Feb 16 196 Lamar W 73 - 67 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 270 @SE Louisiana W 70 - 66 63%
 Mon, Feb 23 88 @McNeese St. L 68 - 76 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 300 East Texas A&M W 78 - 66 87%
 Mon, Mar 2 280 Northwestern St. W 76 - 66 83%
Totals 16 - 13 14 - 8 +1 C +0 C+ C C- C +1 C B- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C D B- C+ 37% 17% 46% C+ C+ C- C+ C C- F B D- C D+ B- C+ C 36% 22% 43% C+ C C A- B- C D+ C C-
1.08 59% 33% 36% +1 0 1.05 28% 1.1 .30 18% .23 76% .17 1.07 61% 36% 33% 0 0 1.01 31% 0.9 .27 17% .33 72% .16
Nov
3		 Baylor C+ A+ C+ A- A 19% 37% 44% C A- F A+ F+ B- F A+ D C F B- F F 20% 33% 47% B+ F+ B+ A+ A+ C F A F
1.04 82% 41% 38% +9 -4 1.12 6% 2.5 .16 15% .17 91% .15 1.24 100% 39% 42% +15 -3 1.25 33% 0.8 .25 14% .48 66% .31
Nov
8		 Southern Utah A+ C F A+ A+ 47% 12% 42% A- A+ A F C- D F F F B- D A- B- C 31% 27% 42% A- C+ C A+ B+ F F+ A D+
1.30 57% 14% 64% +16 +2 1.37 44% 0.6 .28 16% .08 60% .05 0.98 65% 27% 30% -3 -1 0.93 28% 0.8 .21 15% .31 63% .19
Nov
11		 Boise St. F A D+ B- B 33% 39% 29% F+ C+ F A D F A F D+ B- A- A+ F C+ 42% 19% 40% B- C+ F F F A+ F A+ F+
0.86 69% 37% 36% +4 -3 1.04 12% 1.3 .15 21% .37 45% .17 1.12 50% 25% 47% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.5 .74 26% .52 66% .34
Nov
22		 Missouri St. C A+ F F F 37% 30% 33% B- F+ A- A+ A+ F B- A+ A- D F C+ A- D+ 21% 19% 60% C C- B A+ A F F F F
1.06 81% 23% 14% -5 -1 0.88 41% 1.5 .63 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 100% 33% 28% +2 -1 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 9% .45 73% .33
Nov
24		 Illinois B D+ F A+ B 28% 34% 38% C- B- C A B- A+ A F C+ B F A- A C 34% 11% 55% C C A+ A A+ B D- F F
1.04 50% 20% 45% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.1 .27 6% .24 50% .12 1.24 94% 33% 28% +7 +1 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 16% .37 86% .32
Dec
3		 Stephen F. Austin F+ F+ F F F 51% 20% 29% B F+ D- F F A D+ B- C- B- B A- C B+ 26% 36% 38% A B+ B+ C B D- F D F
0.88 46% 27% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 0.6 .14 12% .26 75% .20 1.07 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 10% .39 71% .28
Dec
7		 Austin Peay F D- A F D- 28% 26% 47% D- F+ B- A+ A F F+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 58% 14% 28% F A+ A- A+ A+ C+ D A+ C
0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18 0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21
Dec
11		 Texas Arlington F C- F C D- 36% 20% 43% B- D F D F D F C+ F C+ D- D+ A C 30% 16% 53% B- C D B C B A C A
0.87 56% 11% 32% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 19% .24 73% .17 1.00 62% 43% 26% -4 0 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 23% .25 73% .18
Dec
16		 Lamar B+ F+ C A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% C- A+ F D+ F B- F C F B- F C- D F 18% 34% 48% B D- A- A+ A+ B F C F
1.18 50% 36% 61% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 16% .22 69% .15 1.03 67% 41% 38% +5 -3 1.06 28% 0.4 .10 19% .37 71% .26
Dec
29		 New Orleans F A F A+ B+ 31% 20% 49% D B C- F F F D F F F+ B F C- C 44% 19% 37% D- C- C- F F F B- F D+
0.99 67% 20% 42% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.5 .15 23% .32 59% .19 1.22 50% 50% 35% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.6 .56 14% .33 90% .30
Dec
31		 Nicholls St. F F C- B F 41% 16% 43% C F+ C+ C- C F F C+ F+ C C C- B- C 35% 17% 48% C C D D D A+ F F+ F
0.99 45% 38% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 27% .28 79% .22 1.02 56% 38% 32% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 23% .45 71% .32
Jan
3		 TX A&M Corpus Christi F+ F+ A+ F F 40% 22% 38% C- F D+ F F B+ C+ B+ B C A A- F B- 58% 24% 18% D C+ F D- F B- F B F+
0.94 50% 60% 12% -11 0 0.80 26% 0.7 .17 17% .42 77% .33 1.00 42% 27% 50% -7 +1 0.89 36% 1.1 .39 19% .47 63% .29
Jan
5		 Incarnate Word B- B+ A D- D+ 35% 8% 58% C+ C- A C+ A- C+ F A+ D C+ A+ B+ C- A 40% 26% 34% C- A- F A+ B D- F+ C F+
1.23 67% 50% 30% +1 +1 1.06 42% 1.1 .48 15% .27 87% .24 1.03 40% 31% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.6 .23 12% .35 70% .25
Jan
10		 East Texas A&M C- C- F A B- 47% 4% 49% A- B D F+ D- C- F C- F+ F F C+ F+ F 33% 13% 54% C- F F F F C C A- C+
1.05 57% 0% 42% +3 +3 1.14 28% 0.9 .25 18% .24 69% .17 1.17 69% 33% 38% +7 +1 1.17 36% 1.4 .50 18% .24 62% .15
Jan
12		 Northwestern St. F C F D- F+ 45% 8% 47% B+ D- F A+ F F+ F A+ F B D A A- B- 35% 23% 42% D+ C+ B- B+ B B F D- F
0.95 59% 25% 30% -3 +2 1.00 14% 1.8 .24 21% .13 100% .13 0.97 60% 30% 28% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.0 .22 20% .43 78% .34
Jan
17		 McNeese St. A B+ B+ A+ A+ 25% 16% 59% C- A+ F A+ B- A D B C- D D F A+ B- 35% 25% 40% A- B- F+ A+ A- D- F F F
1.23 64% 43% 46% +13 0 1.27 24% 1.8 .44 20% .35 78% .27 1.18 65% 50% 21% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.6 .26 11% .42 88% .37
Jan
19		 SE Louisiana D+ F+ A+ D+ C 32% 18% 50% C C D- F F+ A A- F+ B- C- F+ A+ D D- 37% 22% 41% D+ D B- A+ A D C C+ C
1.03 50% 63% 32% 0 0 1.02 26% 0.9 .23 15% .45 68% .31 0.99 67% 18% 35% -1 0 1.00 24% 0.6 .14 15% .32 67% .22
Jan
24		 Houston Christian C- B F A+ B 58% 4% 38% A+ B+ F F F C F A+ F A+ B- D D D+ 37% 24% 39% B C- D+ A+ B A+ A A- A
1.12 68% 0% 44% +10 +4 1.29 20% 0.4 .08 18% .08 100% .08 0.84 53% 40% 38% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.6 .18 31% .19 63% .12
Jan
26		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C- A+ C F D+ 29% 20% 51% D D B C- B- C A C A- A A+ A A+ A+ 41% 38% 21% A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ B+ F B- F
1.01 83% 38% 19% -4 -1 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 20% .49 72% .36 0.86 38% 27% 25% -16 -2 0.67 36% 0.4 .14 20% .81 63% .51
Jan
31		 Incarnate Word A+ A A+ A+ A+ 42% 14% 44% C A+ F A+ B A+ D A C F F F F F 33% 27% 40% B- F F A+ A B+ F F F
1.47 71% 63% 48% +18 +1 1.40 23% 1.8 .42 8% .33 82% .27 1.29 82% 50% 48% +20 -1 1.38 39% 0.5 .18 19% .38 77% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Houston Christian C F F C+ F 41% 9% 50% B- F+ A+ A A+ F A A+ A+ B+ A+ D B- A- 42% 20% 38% C- B+ C A+ A+ F B F C+
1.20 50% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 47% 1.3 .59 23% .38 94% .36 0.92 43% 40% 32% -7 0 0.88 29% 0.3 .10 11% .24 77% .18
Feb
7		 New Orleans A C+ F+ A B+ 35% 13% 52% C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ B+ F B A+ B- 40% 31% 29% B B- A+ F D+ C- F C F
1.27 59% 33% 40% +4 +1 1.13 47% 1.3 .61 19% .46 86% .40 1.02 68% 33% 21% -3 -1 0.94 24% 1.6 .39 19% .48 76% .36
Feb
9		 Nicholls St. A+ A+ D B- B+ 50% 7% 43% A A- A A+ A+ D+ B- A B+ C+ F D- A+ D+ 31% 23% 46% B+ C- B C B- D- F A+ C-
1.33 77% 33% 37% +11 +3 1.30 48% 2.0 .95 23% .38 85% .32 1.04 75% 42% 25% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 13% .37 55% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.2 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.5 22.9 33.0 19.7 3.3 83.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.9 4.2 0.6 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 1.4 0.3 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 2.6 10.9 27.4 33.8 20.6 4.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 4.5% 15.2% 15.2% 12.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.8
15-7 20.6% 12.0% 12.0% 13.1 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.0 18.2
14-8 33.8% 8.4% 8.4% 13.5 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 30.9
13-9 27.4% 6.7% 6.7% 14.3 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.0 25.6
12-10 10.9% 4.5% 4.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.4
11-11 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.1 2.5
10-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 13.5 91.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.4 60.9 34.8 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0%