Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#230
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#185
Pace63.8#304
Improvement-1.8#259

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#317
First Shot-1.7#222
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#346
Layup/Dunks+1.0#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#278
Freethrows-2.8#329
Improvement-0.5#208

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#129
First Shot+0.2#174
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#70
Layups/Dunks-3.8#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#196
Freethrows+2.6#35
Improvement-1.3#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.4% 44.2% 38.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.5% 96.9%
Conference Champion 49.2% 55.9% 33.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four10.9% 8.9% 15.6%
First Round36.7% 39.6% 30.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Away) - 70.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 31 - 12 - 3
Quad 418 - 720 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 81   @ Providence L 55-59 10%     0 - 1 +5.9 -7.4 +12.8
  Nov 08, 2024 90   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-67 12%     1 - 1 +15.0 +6.8 +8.3
  Nov 16, 2024 202   Northeastern L 62-80 42%     1 - 2 -19.9 -10.5 -9.6
  Nov 21, 2024 296   @ Sacred Heart L 54-67 54%     1 - 3 -17.9 -20.4 +1.9
  Nov 24, 2024 321   Binghamton W 64-56 78%     2 - 3 -4.1 -1.9 -0.4
  Dec 01, 2024 189   Umass Lowell W 69-67 50%     3 - 3 -2.0 -8.3 +6.3
  Dec 04, 2024 170   @ Massachusetts W 73-69 28%     4 - 3 +6.3 +3.4 +2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 319   @ Holy Cross W 69-56 60%     5 - 3 +6.6 -1.1 +9.4
  Dec 15, 2024 109   @ Rhode Island L 69-77 17%     5 - 4 -1.8 -1.3 -0.5
  Dec 18, 2024 318   @ Fairfield W 64-63 59%     6 - 4 -5.2 -7.4 +2.2
  Dec 21, 2024 183   Quinnipiac W 84-80 49%     7 - 4 +0.3 +8.3 -8.2
  Jan 03, 2025 344   @ St. Francis (PA) W 74-59 69%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +5.9 +2.9 +4.2
  Jan 05, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst W 62-50 78%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +0.1 -5.4 +7.6
  Jan 10, 2025 339   Wagner L 57-62 83%     9 - 5 2 - 1 -19.2 -9.0 -11.1
  Jan 12, 2025 313   LIU Brooklyn L 52-54 76%     9 - 6 2 - 2 -13.4 -12.0 -1.8
  Jan 18, 2025 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-60 62%     10 - 6 3 - 2 +3.9 -5.5 +9.4
  Jan 24, 2025 350   @ Le Moyne W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 26, 2025 360   Chicago St. W 70-56 90%    
  Jan 30, 2025 313   @ LIU Brooklyn W 63-61 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 316   @ Stonehill W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 06, 2025 325   Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-65 80%    
  Feb 13, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 69-56 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 344   St. Francis (PA) W 71-60 85%    
  Feb 20, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. W 67-59 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 316   Stonehill W 69-61 77%    
  Feb 27, 2025 350   Le Moyne W 73-62 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 339   @ Wagner W 59-54 67%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.6 8.0 17.5 15.6 6.5 49.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 9.2 12.8 8.2 2.0 0.0 33.9 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.0 4.7 1.1 0.1 10.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 2.0 0.3 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 7.9 15.8 21.9 25.7 17.6 6.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 99.4% 6.5    5.9 0.6
13-3 88.8% 15.6    12.6 3.1 0.0
12-4 68.1% 17.5    10.6 6.5 0.4
11-5 36.5% 8.0    2.6 4.0 1.4 0.1
10-6 10.2% 1.6    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 49.2% 49.2 31.8 14.6 2.4 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 6.5% 58.7% 58.7% 13.8 0.1 1.3 2.0 0.5 2.7
13-3 17.6% 52.9% 52.9% 14.9 0.1 2.0 6.2 1.0 8.3
12-4 25.7% 45.1% 45.1% 15.5 0.0 0.3 5.3 6.0 14.1
11-5 21.9% 39.0% 39.0% 15.8 0.0 1.8 6.7 13.4
10-6 15.8% 35.9% 35.9% 15.9 0.3 5.4 10.1
9-7 7.9% 31.6% 31.6% 15.9 0.1 2.4 5.4
8-8 3.3% 21.9% 21.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7 2.6
7-9 1.1% 18.1% 18.1% 16.0 0.2 0.9
6-10 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 42.4% 42.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 1.3 4.3 14.3 22.4 57.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 100.0% 13.8 2.6 32.7 51.0 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%