Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#275
Expected Predictive Rating-15.7#351
Pace78.2#24
Improvement-0.6#255

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#304
First Shot-2.9#261
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#259
Layup/Dunks+1.0#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#244
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#265
Freethrows+0.0#190
Improvement-0.1#181

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#213
First Shot-1.7#239
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#163
Layups/Dunks-4.1#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#29
Freethrows-3.5#334
Improvement-0.5#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 5.1% 10.7% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 9.4% 14.5% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 49.4% 39.7% 53.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Neutral) - 27.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 33 - 104 - 17
Quad 45 - 58 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 172   @ Rice L 70-77 22%     0 - 1 -4.6 -6.9 +2.8
  Nov 09, 2024 208   @ Southern Utah L 75-80 26%     0 - 2 -4.2 -8.9 +5.4
  Nov 18, 2024 231   Howard L 70-75 52%     0 - 3 -11.4 -8.8 -2.5
  Nov 22, 2024 149   Northeastern L 72-78 27%    
  Nov 23, 2024 237   Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-73 42%    
  Nov 24, 2024 218   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 66-72 28%    
  Dec 04, 2024 73   Florida Atlantic L 76-87 16%    
  Dec 14, 2024 327   @ Stetson W 75-74 51%    
  Dec 17, 2024 145   @ East Carolina L 66-76 19%    
  Dec 21, 2024 361   IU Indianapolis W 80-68 86%    
  Dec 30, 2024 304   Utah Tech W 80-75 67%    
  Jan 02, 2025 164   Middle Tennessee L 72-74 41%    
  Jan 04, 2025 122   Western Kentucky L 77-83 31%    
  Jan 09, 2025 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 65-80 9%    
  Jan 11, 2025 117   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-83 14%    
  Jan 16, 2025 163   New Mexico St. L 72-74 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 174   UTEP L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 25, 2025 80   Liberty L 64-74 19%    
  Jan 30, 2025 183   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-74 26%    
  Feb 01, 2025 161   @ Kennesaw St. L 81-90 22%    
  Feb 06, 2025 117   Sam Houston St. L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 87   Louisiana Tech L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 13, 2025 174   @ UTEP L 72-80 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 163   @ New Mexico St. L 69-77 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 80   @ Liberty L 61-77 9%    
  Feb 27, 2025 161   Kennesaw St. L 84-87 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 183   Jacksonville St. L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 06, 2025 122   @ Western Kentucky L 74-86 16%    
  Mar 08, 2025 164   @ Middle Tennessee L 69-77 23%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.8 1.0 0.1 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.1 1.4 0.1 9.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 4.7 5.6 2.2 0.2 14.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 4.1 7.2 6.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 21.8 9th
10th 2.6 7.0 10.4 9.9 5.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 37.7 10th
Total 2.6 7.1 11.4 14.2 14.6 13.8 11.9 9.1 6.0 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 47.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 25.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 13.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 15.0% 15.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 8.8% 8.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 11.9% 11.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 10.6% 10.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.5% 5.3% 5.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 2.6% 3.9% 3.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
9-9 4.1% 3.0% 3.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0
8-10 6.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.0
7-11 9.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.0
6-12 11.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.9
5-13 13.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.8
4-14 14.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
3-15 14.2% 14.2
2-16 11.4% 11.4
1-17 7.1% 7.1
0-18 2.6% 2.6
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%