Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#232
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#251
Pace62.3#345
Improvement-1.1#295

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#283
First Shot-7.9#352
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#21
Layup/Dunks-2.3#260
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#341
Freethrows+1.3#118
Improvement+3.2#1

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#154
First Shot+0.8#153
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#215
Layups/Dunks-1.2#219
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
Freethrows-0.4#209
Improvement-4.3#364
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 10.1% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 34.2% 47.9% 24.8%
.500 or above in Conference 56.1% 63.7% 50.9%
Conference Champion 8.6% 11.5% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 8.7% 6.3% 10.4%
First Four1.9% 1.6% 2.2%
First Round6.9% 9.3% 5.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 9
Quad 410 - 612 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 70   @ Arizona St. L 48-55 9%     0 - 1 +4.0 -16.8 +20.5
  Nov 07, 2024 78   @ USC L 69-75 10%     0 - 2 +4.2 +2.8 +1.1
  Nov 16, 2024 298   @ San Diego W 78-66 53%     1 - 2 +7.7 -1.5 +8.3
  Nov 18, 2024 274   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-62 47%     1 - 3 -3.8 -4.4 +0.5
  Nov 20, 2024 27   @ UCLA L 70-84 5%     1 - 4 +1.8 +15.2 -15.0
  Dec 04, 2024 239   @ South Dakota L 69-72 41%    
  Dec 07, 2024 249   Oral Roberts W 70-66 65%    
  Dec 18, 2024 136   Utah Valley L 63-65 42%    
  Jan 02, 2025 277   @ Northern Arizona L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 148   @ Northern Colorado L 65-72 25%    
  Jan 11, 2025 227   Weber St. W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 16, 2025 157   Montana St. L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 213   Montana W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 23, 2025 305   @ Sacramento St. W 62-60 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 221   @ Portland St. L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 30, 2025 243   Eastern Washington W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 284   Idaho W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 03, 2025 148   Northern Colorado L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 227   @ Weber St. L 63-66 38%    
  Feb 13, 2025 213   @ Montana L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 157   @ Montana St. L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 20, 2025 221   Portland St. W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 305   Sacramento St. W 65-57 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 284   @ Idaho L 66-67 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 243   @ Eastern Washington L 70-72 41%    
  Mar 03, 2025 277   Northern Arizona W 68-63 67%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 8.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.9 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.0 2.9 0.7 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 5.6 3.2 0.4 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.6 6.2 8.3 10.4 12.2 12.7 12.0 10.6 8.3 5.8 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 99.1% 0.8    0.8 0.1
15-3 87.7% 1.7    1.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 67.2% 2.4    1.5 0.8 0.1
13-5 36.8% 2.1    0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 11.6% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 5.1 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 44.5% 44.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.8% 36.2% 36.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-3 2.0% 29.7% 29.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4
14-4 3.6% 25.9% 25.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 2.7
13-5 5.8% 19.7% 19.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 4.7
12-6 8.3% 13.9% 13.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 7.1
11-7 10.6% 10.5% 10.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 9.5
10-8 12.0% 8.7% 8.7% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 10.9
9-9 12.7% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.1 0.6 12.0
8-10 12.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 11.9
7-11 10.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 10.2
6-12 8.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.2
5-13 6.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.2
4-14 3.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-16 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 3.2 92.2 0.0%