Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#183
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#204
Pace62.8#335
Improvement+2.2#18

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#222
First Shot+4.0#75
After Offensive Rebound-5.7#361
Layup/Dunks+3.2#82
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#269
Freethrows-1.0#237
Improvement+0.8#77

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#152
First Shot-2.1#250
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#41
Layups/Dunks+1.8#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.1#358
Freethrows+4.4#18
Improvement+1.4#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 5.1% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.8
.500 or above 30.9% 44.5% 21.3%
.500 or above in Conference 35.9% 43.9% 30.1%
Conference Champion 3.0% 4.4% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.8% 11.5% 18.9%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round3.5% 5.0% 2.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Neutral) - 41.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 76 - 13
Quad 46 - 312 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 292   @ Air Force L 67-73 60%     0 - 1 -9.9 -2.4 -8.1
  Nov 13, 2024 229   Georgia St. W 72-67 69%     1 - 1 -1.3 -7.2 +5.7
  Nov 17, 2024 295   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-53 61%     2 - 1 +13.9 +11.0 +6.5
  Nov 21, 2024 145   East Carolina L 63-65 42%    
  Dec 08, 2024 198   @ South Alabama L 66-68 41%    
  Dec 14, 2024 136   Utah Valley W 66-65 50%    
  Dec 17, 2024 62   @ Missouri L 62-75 12%    
  Dec 21, 2024 199   @ Eastern Kentucky L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 04, 2025 161   @ Kennesaw St. L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 09, 2025 122   @ Western Kentucky L 68-75 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 164   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 16, 2025 87   Louisiana Tech L 63-68 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 117   Sam Houston St. L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 23, 2025 174   @ UTEP L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 25, 2025 163   @ New Mexico St. L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 30, 2025 275   Florida International W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 80   Liberty L 60-65 31%    
  Feb 06, 2025 164   Middle Tennessee W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 122   Western Kentucky L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 13, 2025 117   @ Sam Houston St. L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 60-71 18%    
  Feb 20, 2025 163   New Mexico St. W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 174   UTEP W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 27, 2025 80   @ Liberty L 57-68 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 275   @ Florida International W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 08, 2025 161   Kennesaw St. W 77-75 56%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 2.9 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 3.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 13.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.9 5.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 14.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.3 4.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 13.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 2.3 3.1 2.3 0.9 0.1 10.0 10th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.7 5.1 7.8 10.2 12.0 12.6 12.5 10.9 8.6 6.5 4.5 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 82.0% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 57.5% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 29.5% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 36.0% 28.0% 8.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1%
16-2 0.3% 40.9% 37.4% 3.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.6%
15-3 0.7% 26.5% 26.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.5% 20.2% 20.2% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.2
13-5 2.8% 14.7% 14.7% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.4
12-6 4.5% 10.9% 10.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.0
11-7 6.5% 7.0% 7.0% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.0
10-8 8.6% 6.1% 6.1% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.1
9-9 10.9% 4.2% 4.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.5
8-10 12.5% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.1
7-11 12.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.4
6-12 12.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 11.9
5-13 10.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.1
4-14 7.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.8
3-15 5.1% 5.1
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.6% 3.5% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%