Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#162
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#151
Pace62.8#325
Improvement+1.1#137

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#127
First Shot+1.4#133
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#151
Layup/Dunks+0.1#185
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement-0.7#222

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#231
First Shot-3.6#290
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#48
Layups/Dunks+3.8#54
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.8#362
Freethrows+0.7#131
Improvement+1.7#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 8.0% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 50.5% 68.9% 41.1%
.500 or above in Conference 60.9% 78.4% 51.8%
Conference Champion 7.6% 14.1% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 1.0% 5.1%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round6.5% 8.0% 5.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 38 - 79 - 12
Quad 46 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 276   @ Air Force L 67-73 65%     0 - 1 -9.7 -0.6 -9.7
  Nov 13, 2024 283   Georgia St. W 72-67 82%     1 - 1 -4.7 -8.9 +4.0
  Nov 17, 2024 293   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-53 69%     2 - 1 +13.2 +9.1 +7.7
  Nov 21, 2024 164   East Carolina W 86-78 50%     3 - 1 +8.1 +15.1 -6.9
  Nov 22, 2024 196   Toledo L 80-82 57%     3 - 2 -3.6 +7.6 -11.3
  Nov 23, 2024 149   James Madison L 65-71 47%     3 - 3 -5.0 -0.1 -5.5
  Dec 08, 2024 125   @ South Alabama L 74-76 32%     3 - 4 +3.1 +10.5 -7.5
  Dec 14, 2024 140   Utah Valley W 70-66 56%     4 - 4 +2.8 +1.0 +2.0
  Dec 17, 2024 29   @ Missouri L 72-83 8%     4 - 5 +5.0 +15.1 -11.6
  Dec 21, 2024 247   @ Eastern Kentucky W 91-80 59%     5 - 5 +8.9 +16.7 -7.6
  Jan 04, 2025 185   @ Kennesaw St. L 71-83 44%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -10.3 +0.8 -11.4
  Jan 09, 2025 134   @ Western Kentucky W 73-67 34%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +10.5 +5.4 +5.1
  Jan 11, 2025 111   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-81 29%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -11.1 -5.4 -5.7
  Jan 16, 2025 121   Louisiana Tech W 63-61 51%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +1.9 +4.5 -2.1
  Jan 18, 2025 169   Sam Houston St. W 70-62 63%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +4.9 +1.7 +4.1
  Jan 23, 2025 131   @ UTEP L 69-73 34%    
  Jan 25, 2025 128   @ New Mexico St. L 66-71 31%    
  Jan 30, 2025 243   Florida International W 74-67 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 91   Liberty L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 06, 2025 111   Middle Tennessee L 70-71 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 134   Western Kentucky W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 13, 2025 169   @ Sam Houston St. L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 121   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-71 30%    
  Feb 20, 2025 128   New Mexico St. W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 131   UTEP W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 27, 2025 91   @ Liberty L 62-71 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 243   @ Florida International W 72-70 56%    
  Mar 08, 2025 185   Kennesaw St. W 77-73 65%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.6 3.5 0.9 0.1 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.4 5.6 1.1 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.1 3.0 7.6 2.0 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 8.4 3.5 0.1 13.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 6.9 6.0 0.4 14.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.9 6.4 1.1 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.8 1.6 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.4 0.9 0.1 5.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.6 6.9 11.9 16.8 18.8 16.7 12.9 7.5 3.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.3    0.3
14-4 95.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
13-5 75.4% 2.7    1.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 38.2% 2.9    0.6 1.3 0.8 0.2
11-7 5.0% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 3.4 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 21.2% 21.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.0% 27.0% 27.0% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 3.6% 15.1% 15.1% 12.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.0
12-6 7.5% 13.2% 13.2% 13.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 6.5
11-7 12.9% 9.7% 9.7% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 11.6
10-8 16.7% 7.5% 7.5% 13.9 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 15.5
9-9 18.8% 5.7% 5.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 17.8
8-10 16.8% 4.5% 4.5% 15.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 16.0
7-11 11.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.1 0.2 11.7
6-12 6.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.8
5-13 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.2 1.5 0.4 93.5 0.0%