St. Thomas
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#124
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#107
Pace69.8#147
Improvement+1.5#115

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#63
First Shot+8.0#19
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#342
Layup/Dunks+2.7#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#11
Freethrows+1.0#114
Improvement+2.4#60

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#240
First Shot-1.8#231
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#217
Layups/Dunks+1.5#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#249
Freethrows-2.0#312
Improvement-0.9#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.9% 29.8% 25.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 70.0% 80.9% 53.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round27.9% 29.8% 25.0%
Second Round2.7% 3.4% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Away) - 60.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 34 - 46 - 7
Quad 416 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 332   @ Green Bay W 90-76 85%     1 - 0 +5.5 +9.3 -4.2
  Nov 10, 2024 101   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-80 32%     1 - 1 -1.7 -2.1 +1.1
  Nov 17, 2024 63   @ Arizona St. L 66-81 20%     1 - 2 -3.7 +1.1 -5.0
  Nov 22, 2024 130   Wofford L 73-81 52%     1 - 3 -6.1 +0.5 -6.8
  Nov 23, 2024 227   Portland St. W 91-65 72%     2 - 3 +22.2 +16.4 +5.4
  Nov 24, 2024 161   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 65-69 48%     2 - 4 -1.0 -5.3 +4.2
  Dec 02, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 98-76 96%     3 - 4 +4.6 +9.3 -7.3
  Dec 04, 2024 166   @ Northern Colorado W 87-75 49%     4 - 4 +14.6 +18.2 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 226   Montana W 88-81 80%     5 - 4 +0.6 +10.1 -9.6
  Dec 13, 2024 304   Western Michigan W 77-71 88%     6 - 4 -4.7 +3.5 -7.7
  Dec 21, 2024 288   @ Bowling Green W 93-68 74%     7 - 4 +20.5 +7.8 +9.9
  Dec 29, 2024 173   @ UC Riverside L 79-81 OT 51%     7 - 5 +0.2 -0.9 +1.3
  Jan 02, 2025 112   @ North Dakota St. W 89-85 37%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +9.8 +20.4 -10.3
  Jan 04, 2025 278   @ North Dakota W 88-80 73%     9 - 5 2 - 0 +4.2 +6.4 -2.5
  Jan 08, 2025 114   South Dakota St. W 73-72 58%     10 - 5 3 - 0 +1.2 +5.9 -4.6
  Jan 11, 2025 269   South Dakota W 119-104 85%     11 - 5 4 - 0 +6.2 +25.6 -20.7
  Jan 18, 2025 340   Denver W 74-62 93%     12 - 5 5 - 0 -2.3 -1.5 +0.1
  Jan 23, 2025 221   @ Nebraska Omaha W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 223   @ UMKC W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 29, 2025 312   Oral Roberts W 88-74 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 112   North Dakota St. W 80-78 58%    
  Feb 06, 2025 114   @ South Dakota St. L 78-81 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 340   @ Denver W 82-71 86%    
  Feb 15, 2025 221   Nebraska Omaha W 82-74 80%    
  Feb 19, 2025 269   @ South Dakota W 90-84 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 312   @ Oral Roberts W 85-77 77%    
  Feb 27, 2025 278   North Dakota W 87-75 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 223   UMKC W 77-68 79%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 10.3 22.0 21.5 11.7 3.2 70.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.8 8.3 2.6 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.5 4.0 1.0 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.5 3.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.2 11.7 19.6 24.7 21.5 11.7 3.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
15-1 100.0% 11.7    11.7 0.0
14-2 99.9% 21.5    19.9 1.7
13-3 89.3% 22.0    13.8 7.5 0.7
12-4 52.3% 10.3    2.8 5.2 2.1 0.2
11-5 11.2% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2
10-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 70.0% 70.0 51.4 14.8 3.4 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.2% 43.5% 43.5% 11.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.1 1.8
15-1 11.7% 37.4% 37.4% 12.5 0.1 2.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.3
14-2 21.5% 32.5% 32.5% 12.9 0.1 1.7 4.0 1.2 0.1 14.5
13-3 24.7% 28.9% 28.9% 13.2 0.0 0.8 3.9 2.3 0.1 17.5
12-4 19.6% 23.0% 23.0% 13.6 0.2 1.8 2.3 0.3 15.1
11-5 11.7% 20.7% 20.7% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.4 9.3
10-6 5.2% 16.5% 16.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.4
9-7 1.8% 10.9% 10.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6
8-8 0.5% 13.2% 13.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5
7-9 0.1% 0.1
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 27.9% 27.9% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.6 5.8 12.3 7.9 1.4 0.0 72.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 11.7 1.4 30.7 62.9 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%