St. Thomas
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#168
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#159
Pace67.2#247
Improvement-1.1#297

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#165
First Shot+0.1#179
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#153
Layup/Dunks+1.7#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#76
Freethrows-1.4#253
Improvement-0.7#293

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#203
First Shot-1.6#236
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#156
Layups/Dunks-1.0#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#136
Freethrows-1.3#255
Improvement-0.4#246
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.4% 23.5% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 73.5% 82.6% 61.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.6% 84.3% 73.6%
Conference Champion 28.0% 32.5% 22.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 2.6% 5.7%
First Four1.6% 1.1% 2.1%
First Round19.7% 22.9% 15.6%
Second Round1.5% 2.0% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Neutral) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 413 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 251   @ Green Bay W 90-76 55%     1 - 0 +12.3 +12.4 -0.4
  Nov 10, 2024 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-80 17%     1 - 1 +0.6 -2.0 +3.2
  Nov 17, 2024 70   @ Arizona St. L 66-81 14%     1 - 2 -4.0 -0.3 -3.9
  Nov 22, 2024 206   Wofford W 71-69 56%    
  Nov 23, 2024 221   Portland St. W 79-77 59%    
  Nov 24, 2024 212   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75-76 46%    
  Dec 02, 2024 350   Chicago St. W 80-65 92%    
  Dec 04, 2024 148   @ Northern Colorado L 72-76 35%    
  Dec 07, 2024 213   Montana W 74-69 68%    
  Dec 13, 2024 323   Western Michigan W 79-67 85%    
  Dec 21, 2024 262   @ Bowling Green W 74-72 56%    
  Dec 29, 2024 202   @ UC Riverside L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 02, 2025 241   @ North Dakota St. W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 253   @ North Dakota W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 08, 2025 153   South Dakota St. W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 239   South Dakota W 79-73 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 294   Denver W 80-70 80%    
  Jan 23, 2025 259   @ Nebraska Omaha W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 217   @ UMKC L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 29, 2025 249   Oral Roberts W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 241   North Dakota St. W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 153   @ South Dakota St. L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 294   @ Denver W 77-73 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 259   Nebraska Omaha W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 19, 2025 239   @ South Dakota W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 249   @ Oral Roberts W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 27, 2025 253   North Dakota W 76-69 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 217   UMKC W 72-67 67%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.8 7.2 7.6 5.3 2.6 0.7 28.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 5.4 7.4 4.3 1.2 0.2 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.2 6.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.3 5.0 1.3 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.2 1.1 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.5 0.9 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.4 0.9 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.5 8.0 10.4 12.5 13.7 13.7 11.8 8.8 5.4 2.6 0.7 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 100.0% 2.6    2.5 0.0
14-2 97.0% 5.3    4.8 0.5
13-3 86.6% 7.6    6.0 1.6 0.1
12-4 61.4% 7.2    4.0 2.8 0.4 0.0
11-5 27.4% 3.8    1.2 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 5.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 28.0% 28.0 19.2 6.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 65.9% 65.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-1 2.6% 54.0% 54.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2
14-2 5.4% 44.8% 44.8% 13.1 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0
13-3 8.8% 37.3% 37.3% 13.6 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.5
12-4 11.8% 29.7% 29.7% 14.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.1 8.3
11-5 13.7% 23.8% 23.8% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.4 10.5
10-6 13.7% 17.1% 17.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.5 11.4
9-7 12.5% 13.8% 13.8% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 10.8
8-8 10.4% 9.8% 9.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 9.4
7-9 8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 7.4
6-10 5.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.3
5-11 3.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
4-12 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-13 0.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-14 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.4% 20.4% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 5.7 5.3 3.2 79.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.2 3.6 7.1 10.7 3.6 7.1 10.7 10.7 28.6 17.9