Nevada
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#39
Expected Predictive Rating+14.7#24
Pace64.7#306
Improvement+1.7#31

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#43
First Shot+6.9#26
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#241
Layup/Dunks+0.4#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
Freethrows+4.0#28
Improvement+0.7#76

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#38
First Shot+5.5#40
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#175
Layups/Dunks+2.3#113
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#44
Freethrows+0.1#180
Improvement+1.0#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 2.1% 2.8% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 7.1% 9.2% 3.0%
Top 6 Seed 14.3% 17.9% 7.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.5% 57.8% 39.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 36.4% 42.9% 24.5%
Average Seed 8.2 8.0 9.0
.500 or above 99.3% 99.7% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 97.1% 94.7%
Conference Champion 31.9% 35.4% 25.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.3% 8.9% 7.2%
First Round47.7% 53.8% 35.7%
Second Round27.4% 31.9% 18.3%
Sweet Sixteen11.2% 13.6% 6.4%
Elite Eight4.7% 5.7% 2.5%
Final Four1.8% 2.2% 0.9%
Championship Game0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Neutral) - 66.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 25 - 37 - 5
Quad 39 - 116 - 7
Quad 48 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 115   Sam Houston St. W 91-75 85%     1 - 0 +16.5 +18.7 -2.0
  Nov 09, 2024 84   Washington W 63-53 77%     2 - 0 +13.8 -1.9 +16.4
  Nov 13, 2024 225   Weber St. W 88-58 94%     3 - 0 +23.9 +20.2 +6.4
  Nov 16, 2024 99   Santa Clara W 85-59 81%     4 - 0 +28.2 +17.5 +12.5
  Nov 21, 2024 82   Vanderbilt W 75-71 66%    
  Dec 02, 2024 80   Washington St. W 75-68 75%    
  Dec 07, 2024 152   @ Loyola Marymount W 71-63 77%    
  Dec 11, 2024 183   South Dakota St. W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 14, 2024 266   Texas Southern W 79-59 96%    
  Dec 21, 2024 102   Colorado St. W 72-62 81%    
  Dec 28, 2024 185   @ Wyoming W 74-64 81%    
  Dec 31, 2024 45   Utah St. W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 03, 2025 63   @ New Mexico L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 253   @ Fresno St. W 78-65 88%    
  Jan 14, 2025 292   Air Force W 75-54 97%    
  Jan 18, 2025 251   San Jose St. W 77-58 96%    
  Jan 22, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 62   San Diego St. W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 29, 2025 43   @ Boise St. L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 97   UNLV W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 04, 2025 292   @ Air Force W 72-57 91%    
  Feb 11, 2025 253   Fresno St. W 81-62 95%    
  Feb 14, 2025 251   @ San Jose St. W 74-61 87%    
  Feb 18, 2025 102   @ Colorado St. W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 43   Boise St. W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 25, 2025 185   Wyoming W 77-61 91%    
  Feb 28, 2025 97   @ UNLV W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 63   New Mexico W 79-73 69%    
  Mar 08, 2025 62   @ San Diego St. L 65-66 49%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.9 9.2 7.7 4.1 1.1 31.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.0 8.1 6.4 2.4 0.3 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 4.0 6.9 4.0 0.7 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.3 1.5 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.8 0.7 0.1 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.5 5.6 8.2 11.3 14.0 14.9 14.1 11.6 8.0 4.1 1.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
19-1 100.0% 4.1    4.0 0.1
18-2 96.0% 7.7    6.8 0.9 0.0
17-3 79.2% 9.2    6.3 2.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 49.0% 6.9    3.1 3.0 0.8 0.1
15-5 17.2% 2.6    0.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.9% 31.9 21.8 7.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.1% 99.8% 66.0% 33.8% 2.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
19-1 4.1% 99.0% 53.4% 45.6% 3.7 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
18-2 8.0% 97.0% 46.1% 50.9% 5.7 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 94.5%
17-3 11.6% 89.0% 37.6% 51.3% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.0 1.3 82.3%
16-4 14.1% 75.6% 30.0% 45.7% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.6 2.5 0.1 3.4 65.2%
15-5 14.9% 55.2% 23.1% 32.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.4 3.5 0.4 0.0 6.7 41.7%
14-6 14.0% 37.8% 17.8% 20.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.7 24.3%
13-7 11.3% 21.5% 12.2% 9.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 8.9 10.7%
12-8 8.2% 13.2% 9.4% 3.9% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 7.1 4.2%
11-9 5.6% 7.6% 6.7% 0.9% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.2 1.0%
10-10 3.5% 4.4% 4.4% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4
9-11 2.0% 3.2% 3.1% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.1%
8-12 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
7-13 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-14 0.2% 2.5% 2.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 51.5% 23.9% 27.7% 8.2 0.8 1.3 2.0 3.0 3.4 3.9 3.9 4.3 5.8 8.5 12.5 2.2 0.0 0.0 48.5 36.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.8 47.8 34.8 12.5 4.3 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 21.4 35.7 14.3 23.8 2.4 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 95.8% 2.5 12.5 50.0 12.5 16.7 4.2